Russia invades Ukraine

[Broucek]

Fantastic!

 

[Pete_uk]

When Crimea get effectively cut of and looks likely to be untenable for Russia to hold on to, expect a lot of talk from Russia and the US about freezing the front lines or a ceasefire for negotiation as if Crimea falls to Ukraine its 70% over for Russia.

I hope Ukraine keeps going and kicks them out!

 

[brad465]

When Crimea get effectively cut of and looks likely to be untenable for Russia to hold on to, expect a lot of talk from Russia and the US about freezing the front lines or a ceasefire for negotiation as if Crimea falls to Ukraine its 70% over for Russia.

I hope Ukraine keeps going and kicks them out!

Do you know where the latest territorial map of control can be found? Wikipedia's only goes to mid-April. It will be interesting to see how much Ukraine have advanced on the southern front in the last two months.

 

[Annetts key]

Here's some of the sites that I use:
ISW https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
DeepState (updates to maps are delayed when the Ukrainian government requests this) https://deepstatemap.live/en/#6/49.3609115/33.4973145
Scribblemaps https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The War in Ukraine/091194n
Majakovsk73 maps linktr.ee/Majakovsk73

 

[brad465]

Ukraine bringing the war to those who have so far been mostly kept away from it:

Moscow residents complain of black rain after largest Ukrainian attack hits oil refinery

A refinery and a shopping centre burned after almost 200 Ukrainian drones were launched towards an area to the south-east of the Russian capital.

www.bbc.co.uk

Moscow has come under the largest Ukrainian attack since the start of the full-scale war, with close to 200 drones hitting targets around the Russian capital and setting columns of thick smoke billowing high into the sky.

Seventeen people were wounded in the Moscow region, according to local governor Andrei Vorobyov.

Almost 1,000 drones and four Ukrainian cruise missiles were intercepted and destroyed across the country in 24 hours, Russia's defence ministry was quoted as saying. An oil depot was struck in the southern Rostov region, where one person was killed.

Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had once again hit the Moscow region with "long-range sanctions" - a euphemism for Ukrainian long-distance strikes on Russia.

"It's time to end this war, and Russia must take the necessary steps in diplomacy," he added.

He said the massive drone strike was in response to last week's Russian attack on Kyiv, which set a major religious landmark ablaze.

"We don't want this war and have never wanted it," Zelensky said. "But if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn too."

Fires broke out as the Kapotnya refinery in south-east Moscow was hit for the third time in a month and the second time this week, colouring the sky black with smoke. Numerous videos showed the lid of a large oil storage tank blown dozens of metres into the air by the force of an explosion.

A nearby shopping centre was also burning, reportedly after drone debris fell on the building, and several residential high-rise blocks were evacuated.

Moscow's four airports were temporarily shut and more than 500 flights were cancelled or delayed.

 

[Pete_uk]

When I saw this photo i thought it was fake, but it's real!

Picture of the top of a oil storage facility blowing up into the sky.

 

[najaB]

Ukraine bringing the war to those who have so far been mostly kept away from it:

Moscow residents complain of black rain after largest Ukrainian attack hits oil refinery

A refinery and a shopping centre burned after almost 200 Ukrainian drones were launched towards an area to the south-east of the Russian capital.

www.bbc.co.uk

While I 100% support Ukraine attacks on targets in Russia, including Moscow and Saint Petersburg, they do need to be more careful about hitting civilian targets than the Russians have been in order to avoid the Kremlin spinning a "poor babushkas" narrative.

At least in this case it's clear that the shopping centre wasn't a target but was hit by debris or a downed drone.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Jun 2026 ==

I had missed this one, it seems that Lukashenko is perhaps not so confident that Russia is going to win the Ukraine war:

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said that Belarus poses no military threat to Ukraine and apologized to President Volodymyr Zelensky for previous harsh remarks, according to an interview with Al Arabiya.

Lukashenko said his comments had been a response to what he described as threats from Ukraine, including statements that Kyiv had identified hundreds of potential targets in Belarus and knew his whereabouts.

"If Volodymyr Oleksandrovych was offended, I apologize to him for these words," Lukashenko said, adding that he may have spoken too harshly given Ukraine's ongoing war against Russia.

At the same time, he argued that Zelensky should be more careful in his statements and avoid provoking Belarus. "No military action should be expected from Belarus, and especially from me," Lukashenko said.

Source: https://kyivindependent.com/lukashe...aine-apologizes-to-zelensky-for-past-remarks/

One doesn't apologise publicly to a leader you expect to be deposed any time soon!

 

[Annetts key]

I had missed this one, it seems that Lukashenko is perhaps not so confident that Russia is going to win the Ukraine war:

Source: https://kyivindependent.com/lukashe...aine-apologizes-to-zelensky-for-past-remarks/

One doesn't apologise publicly to a leader you expect to be deposed any time soon!

It could also be a message to the EU and the West. Lukashenko can see how badly the war is going for Russia and can see how badly the Russian economy is doing (helped by Ukraine making bits of it explode).

He wants to survive and as he situation in Russia gets worse, the support that Russia provides will disappear. So Lukashenko needs to ‘make friends’ with the EU and the West if he has any chance of surviving the collapse of Russia.

He also knows that his army would not last long against the Ukrainian armed forces.

 

[Killingworth]

It could also be a message to the EU and the West. Lukashenko can see how badly the war is going for Russia and can see how badly the Russian economy is doing (helped by Ukraine making bits of it explode).

He wants to survive and as he situation in Russia gets worse, the support that Russia provides will disappear. So Lukashenko needs to ‘make friends’ with the EU and the West if he has any chance of surviving the collapse of Russia.

He also knows that his army would not last long against the Ukrainian armed forces.

Nor against the Russian army, although it would get very messy if he provoked Putin by aligning with NATO. So he'll carry on sitting on the fence and may consider preparing the way to be able to join the EU when the 'special military operation' is over - if he has any sense.

 

[brad465]

Ukraine will make Minsk-meat of Belarussian forces if required.

 

[AndrewE]

This isn't looking so good:

Russia Ukraine war: Troop build-up threatens Kostyantynivka, key to seizing Donbas

If Kostyantynivka falls, Russian forces would be able push towards Ukraine's last remaining strongholds in the east.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian troop build-up threatens city seen as key to seizing Ukraine's Donbas
​

Russian troops have infiltrated the strategic city of Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine and are now trying to surround it.

The entire city is now effectively in a "grey zone", no longer controlled by anyone, Ukrainian soldiers have told the BBC.
"They get into areas behind our backs and in urban conditions it's extremely difficult to push them out," says a Ukrainian drone pilot who operates in that area and prefers to remain anonymous.

 

[Killingworth]

Ukraine will make Minsk-meat of Belarussian forces if required.

We need to guard against such assumptions. The effective manpower levels of both Russia and Ukraine are both becoming increasing stretched. Neither side can easily advance anywhere without leaving other sectors perilously thinly guarded. Managing that is crucial. Adding yet more territory to the conflict would also stretch drone capabilities.

We can't know when the exact tipping point will come. The time when enough of one side's troops decide they've had enough and walk off home. It may be getting closer, but when it does it will be very messy.

Lukashenko is near enough to both sides to appreciate the dangers. He's a wily old bird and intends to survive by keeping out - for now. We may need him to help restore longer term peace.

 

[brad465]

We need to guard against such assumptions. The effective manpower levels of both Russia and Ukraine are both becoming increasing stretched. Neither side can easily advance anywhere without leaving other sectors perilously thinly guarded. Managing that is crucial. Adding yet more territory to the conflict would also stretch drone capabilities.

We can't know when the exact tipping point will come. The time when enough of one side's troops decide they've had enough and walk off home. It may be getting closer, but when it does it will be very messy.

Lukashenko is near enough to both sides to appreciate the dangers. He's a wily old bird and intends to survive by keeping out - for now. We may need him to help restore longer term peace.

To be honest, I mainly said that to get the pun in.

More seriously I would not be surprised if the border with Belarus is heavily mined and fortified, so any involvement is likely to be air support or something else that doesn't risk being bogged down in those fortifications.

 

[Annetts key]

To be honest, I mainly said that to get the pun in.

More seriously I would not be surprised if the border with Belarus is heavily mined and fortified, so any involvement is likely to be air support or something else that doesn't risk being bogged down in those fortifications.

After what happened in 2022, yes, Ukraine has mined and fortified it's border area with Belarus. Hence any attempt to invade Ukraine would be far more difficult than last time when Russia tried this.

 

[AndrewE]

After what happened in 2022, yes, Ukraine has mined and fortified it's border area with Belarus. Hence any attempt to invade Ukraine would be far more difficult than last time when Russia tried this.

Ukraine bolsters its northern defences amid fears Belarus is being dragged into war

Kyiv is not taking any risks amid Moscow’s efforts to integrate Minsk ever more closely into its war

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine bolsters its northern defences amid fears Belarus is being dragged into war​

Kyiv is not taking any risks amid Moscow’s efforts to integrate Minsk ever more closely into its war

ussian spy drones flying into Ukraine from Belarusian airspace have sharply increased since the beginning of the year, as senior officials in Kyiv express Rmounting concern over Belarus’s involvement in the war.

Ukraine has stepped up by reinforcing fortifications on its northern border, including anti-tank ditches, concrete “dragons’ teeth” obstacles to block armoured vehicles and new areas of barbed wire. Troops operating along the border say they have noted a jump of about 20% in Russian intelligence drones since January.

etc.

 

[Pete_uk]

Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) on X

What started as former Russian army commander Akexander Lunin threatening Putin over the epidemic of brutality, theft and murder in the Russian military is quickly becoming the seeds of civil war, as military units are producing videos joining the threats against the Kremlin.

x.com

What started as former Russian army commander Akexander Lunin threatening Putin over the epidemic of brutality, theft and murder in the Russian military is quickly becoming the seeds of civil war, as military units are producing videos joining the threats against the Kremlin.

Some military units from Russia are threatening to go to Moscow and take out the leaders if their demands aren't met.

That would be fun.

 

[najaB]

Some military units from Russia are threatening to go to Moscow and take out the leaders if their demands aren't met.

That would be fun.

Yevgeny Prigozhin tried that. It didn't end well for him.

 

[ainsworth74]

Yevgeny Prigozhin tried that. It didn't end well for him.

Mostly because he gave up halfway through, either because he was foolish enough to think Putin might spare him or, I guess potentially more likely, to secure the safety of his family having realised he was probably not going to win and things went further than anticipated (which, as far as I'm aware, has worked his family are alive and not disappeared into a gulag or out a window).

Which means for any further pretends the stakes are clear. Win or die. Guess it makes it less likely but if it does happen they're going to see it through to the bitter end.

 

[najaB]

Which means for any further pretends the stakes are clear. Win or die.

"When you strike at a king, you must kill him." - Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

[brad465]

This week two events suggest Russia is in real trouble: first they had a very problematic bond sale, second, Laura Loomer, the poster girl of MAGA and very close to Trump, travelled to Ukraine to talk up support for him, claiming to have fallen to Russian propaganda before:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-21/russia-halts-bond-auctions-with-more-monetary-easing-in-question

Russia halted auctions of domestic government bonds after a series of failed sales amid speculation the central bank may pause a year-long monetary easing cycle.

The decision to suspend auctions of OFZs, as the debt is known, was taken to help stabilize the market situation, the Finance Ministry said in a statement late Monday. The next weekly sale had been scheduled for July 22.

The ministry is targeting 1.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion) in issuance this quarter as a key means of covering the federal budget deficit, which is growing as the Kremlin continues its war against Ukraine. But it axed a July 8 auction ahead of time and failed to sell securities a week later due to a lack of acceptable bids.

What’s behind Maga influencer Laura Loomer’s about-face on Ukraine?

After a Kyiv visit, rightwing firebrand now supports Ukraine – but perhaps it’s just because Trump favors a winner

www.theguardian.com

Laura Loomer, the online Maga provocateur, has never worked in the White House or anywhere else in the government, but her sudden conversion to the Ukrainian cause this week is significant because her social media posts often have real policy implications in the second Trump administration.

The rightwing commentator has spent the last few days in Kyiv, where she announced a newfound sympathy for Ukraine in its long war with Russia, and admitted that she had previously fallen for Russian propaganda.

Loomer – who has previously echoed Kremlin talking points to her 2 million followers on social media – has enjoyed direct access to Trump since the 2024 presidential campaign. During the early months after Trump returned to office, Loomer used her online presence to push for ideological purges of government personnel, including many in the national security arena.

For a time, her power to break careers among foreign policy officials made her seem as if she were Trump’s de facto national security adviser.

It is unclear whether she still has that kind of pull inside the White House, but Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, certainly took her seriously when she arrived this week, holding a private meeting with her on Thursday.

“This is everyday for every Ukrainian,” she posting, adding she felt that she had been “an asshole for minimizing the struggle of Ukrainians for the last 5 years”.

“I often said I don’t care. Looking back, that wasn’t very nice of me to say. There are people in Ukraine who have to run to a bomb shelter everyday and some of us had the audacity to say Russia wasn’t wrong because we believed the lie that Ukraine is a country full of Nazi sympathizers. We have been so propagandized by Russia and we don’t even realize it.”

Before their meeting on Thursday, Zelenskyy’s office posted a statement saying: “It is really important that @LauraLoomer is in Ukraine and sees things with her own eyes as they are.”

Loomer’s change of heart is potentially important not only because she is close to Trump, but also because she has long served as a reliable barometer of Maga attitudes.

Loomer has long been disdainful of Ukraine, adopting what could only be described as a pro-Russian perspective. Many in Maga circles have for years held positive views of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, thanks to Russian propaganda that portrayed him as a bulwark against homosexuality and a defender of fundamentalist Christianity. They became convinced that the Russia-Ukraine war was a proxy fight between Russia’s fundamentalist Christianity and the EU’s western secularism.

Loomer’s shift comes at a critical moment for Ukraine, which recently lost one of its strongest supporters in Washington with the death this month of Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator from South Carolina who had consistently pushed for increased sanctions on Russia to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

'Normal Yorkshire lad' killed by drone in Ukraine 'suicide mission' is first UK national to die fighting for Putin’s Russia​

Bradley Townsend was among a small number of UK nationals fighting for Russia in Ukraine, but he is the first known British fighter to have died on the Russian side since Putin’s forces first invaded the country in 2014.

Source: LBC News

What a stupid reason for him to decide to support Russia - because Ukrainians supported UK miners during the 80s strikes in the UK.

 

[styles]

Source: LBC News

What a stupid reason for him to decide to support Russia - because Ukrainians supported UK miners during the 80s strikes in the UK.

I thought maybe this was an exaggeration, but no:

Writing online, Townsend added that he was partly motivated by his mining roots, claiming Donbas workers had donated a month’s wages to Yorkshire miners during the 1980s strikes, and that he had gone to “repay that favour”.

The lad was 33, so not even born when said donation had been made.

Why anyone from the UK would go and fight for Russia is beyond me.

 

[Yew]

The lad was 33, so not even born when said donation had been made.

Why anyone from the UK would go and fight for Russia is beyond me.

From a socialist perspective, I can understand the desire to repay international solidarity, but the logical leaps required to turn that into "I'll repay the ukranians by fighting against them" shows either some remarkable mental gymnastics, or a unquestioning belief of Russian propoganda.

 

[Broucek]

IIRC the USSR provided a certain amount of support to the UK mining unions back in the day, although I think the Thatcher government stopped any actual financial support

 

[ainsworth74]

IIRC the USSR provided a certain amount of support to the UK mining unions back in the day, although I think the Thatcher government stopped any actual financial support

And there seem to be some on the left (though normally it's those that were a) alive and b) involved in political activity at the time) who still seem to associate Russia with the USSR. Putin's Russia is nothing like the USSR. It borrows some of the trappings to claim legitimacy and to play on the nostalgia of when Russia was great and how the evil West stole their future but as a political entity the Russian Federation under Putin is not just the USSR Mk2.

Which makes them even dumber for defaulting to their support of Russia now. They have to be wilfully blind and/or utterly consumed by Russian propaganda to go along with their talking points.

 

[edwin_m]

And there seem to be some on the left (though normally it's those that were a) alive and b) involved in political activity at the time) who still seem to associate Russia with the USSR. Putin's Russia is nothing like the USSR. It borrows some of the trappings to claim legitimacy and to play on the nostalgia of when Russia was great and how the evil West stole their future but as a political entity the Russian Federation under Putin is not just the USSR Mk2.

Maybe so, but to its citizens and to other countries it looks pretty similar. De facto dictatorship prioritising empire building over the wellbeing of its population.

 

[35B]

Maybe so, but to its citizens and to other countries it looks pretty similar. De facto dictatorship prioritising empire building over the wellbeing of its population.

It is a curious blind spot on the left, where Russia, despite fundamentally being a contiguous empire and having acted imperialistically for all of its existence, is treated as if it were somehow the opposite out of a residual belief that the USSR was a good thing.

 

[ainsworth74]

Maybe so, but to its citizens and to other countries it looks pretty similar. De facto dictatorship prioritising empire building over the wellbeing of its population.

Sorry yes, I should have clarified rather than leaving my thought half finished. I meant in ideological terms. It's actions are clearly straight from the USSR playbook (and the Russian Empire before that). That's what I find weird. People on the left acting like there is still an ideological alignment as if Russia today is somehow similar to the USSR. For that reason they therefore hand wave/forgive Russia's actions.

 

[Annetts key]

Maybe so, but to its citizens and to other countries it looks pretty similar. De facto dictatorship prioritising empire building over the wellbeing of its population.

The present day Russia is closer to a mafia type structure, as in it's a highly structured organized crime society with the state being highly corrupt and controlling the money and power. And the state in turn is controlled by Putin. Or some say, actually controlled by the FSB...

Either way, if you are rich or powerful in Russia and the state decides it doesn't like you anymore, your company or companies will be seized and you may find yourself in big trouble.

Meanwhile, the state doesn't care for the ordinary working man and woman. Putin would rather waste billions on a war where they will never gain enough resources to compensate the costs of war, even if they win. And currently it looks far more likely that Russia will not win.

All that is a far cry from "true" communism...

 

[edwin_m]

All that is a far cry from "true" communism...

I agree, but the USSR was pretty far from that ideal from quite early on, certainly under Stalin.