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GWR accused of disrupting Wales-England train links by Welsh Government

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This simply isn't true. The Welsh Assembly was offered devolution of rail maintenance in 2005 and declined it, and one of the reasons is they didn't think the civil service at the time could handle it. The present government has been in power for less than half a year, we have no idea what negotiations are ongoing.
That was 15 years, 2 TOCs and 5 Senedds before the Welsh Government then bought the Valley lines under Mark Drakeford (when the very anti-devolution Tories were still in Westminster, mind), a situation quite seperated from the administration that rejected that proposal, which was back when the Senedd was smaller and had even less powers than it has now.
 
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WelshBluebird

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This simply isn't true. The Welsh Assembly was offered devolution of rail maintenance in 2005 and declined it, and one of the reasons is they didn't think the civil service at the time could handle it. The present government has been in power for less than half a year, we have no idea what negotiations are ongoing.
2005 was over two decades ago. Not really relevant to the wants of more recent Welsh Governments.
 

Jez

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Hopefully 197 availability will be better come December otherwise the TFW Bristol service could very well end up like Ebbw Vale-Newport, Wrexham-Chester and other new services and get suspended at times when there is not enough trains in service.
 

Francis

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I don’t see it as aggressive. It’s entirely reasonable for GWR to object to another operator wanting to run services that could negatively affect theirs. That’s why we have the ORR as an independent regulator to determine who can run services. Is it an improvement if there’s an increase in unreliability thanks to adding too many trains?

Where do you draw the line for TFW running cross border services? Paddington? Euston? Edinburgh?
Tfw run into Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham OK. Bristol is nearer to Wales than these three cities.
 

Torfaen

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Regarding the impact on service reliability, reducing the number of services that start/terminate at Cardiff Central will potentially be an improvement.

And, from a passenger's perspective, a few extra services between Cardiff and Bristol means more alternatives when GWR's are cancelled, short-formed and running late. So, a more reliable journey, even if the extra paths mean a few extra delay minutes are picked up here and there.
 

positron

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Network rail have given their support for the service for 12 months only (seems lumo might impact path availablity). I'm guessing that means GWR will get overruled. Though obviously if there's no paths from Dec 2027 that's rather a bad situation to be in.
 

The exile

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Network rail have given their support for the service for 12 months only (seems lumo might impact path availablity). I'm guessing that means GWR will get overruled. Though obviously if there's no paths from Dec 2027 that's rather a bad situation to be in.
NR supporting the service for only 12 months sounds more liberal saying that both TOCs are right! TFW are right in that there are paths now; GWR are right that there soon won’t be!
 

Sputnik89

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NR supporting the service for only 12 months sounds more liberal saying that both TOCs are right! TFW are right in that there are paths now; GWR are right that there soon won’t be!

But possession is 9/10's of the law as they say. The political storm they will be able to kick up if paths were taken off them...
 

The exile

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But possession is 9/10's of the law as they say. The political storm they will be able to kick up if paths were taken off them...
If those paths have already (now) been committed elsewhere they can make as much fuss as they like- it’s then a simple “You were told they were only available for a year and chose to ignore us”.
Is the pinch point Cardiff - Severn Tunnel (ie only a problem till the reliefs get fettled up for passenger trains) or STJ to Filton (which is more intractable)?
 

Jez

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I dont really understand the point in TFW starting this service if its only going to run for 1 year? Surely they would be better off concentrating on the current services they run (even though apparently only 1 unit is required for this service extension)
 

John R

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It’s the Severn Tunnel, surely?

How many of these freight trains to the new EA furnace at Port Talbot will need to a) travel through the tunnel (surely trains from the North can come via Lydney?) and b) of those travelling through the tunnel how many could come at less busy times for passenger traffic (eg overnight)?
 

zwk500

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It’s the Severn Tunnel, surely?
Specifically the total number of trains trying to use it. There's already 4tph from GWR, then Lumo, the freight and now this TfW. And that's before the potential TfW services for the new stations and other OAO applications.

However don't neglect the long list of closely spaced constraints: Cardiff Central, Newport, Maindee West Jn, Severn Tunnel Jn, Patchway, Filton Abbey Wood, the Filton Bank, Bristol East Jn, and Bristol Temple Meads are all busy areas where limited room for flexibility in the new or existing paths exists. Whilst it may be the case that no single constraint is above 100% utilisation, the fact you have so many quite close together means that getting each to line up means paths may not be available for end-to-end trains despite nominal capacity being available at each individual junction.
How many of these freight trains to the new EA furnace at Port Talbot will need to a) travel through the tunnel (surely trains from the North can come via Lydney?)
Travelling from the north extends journey times and means finding paths on the Westerleigh - Standish Jn sections (or via the Golden Valley [Kemble], which may well have weight limits but would need to confirm)
and b) of those travelling through the tunnel how many could come at less busy times for passenger traffic (eg overnight)?
Not many, because there's already quite a lot of freight overnight and there's maintenance access requirements. Also remember that something arriving overnight at the Severn may well mean it's somewhere else at a rather busy time.
 

The Planner

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But possession is 9/10's of the law as they say. The political storm they will be able to kick up if paths were taken off them...
Depends on how the rights have been applied, whether they are firm, or contingent rights and for how long.
 

John R

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Specifically the total number of trains trying to use it. There's already 4tph from GWR, then Lumo, the freight and now this TfW. And that's before the potential TfW services for the new stations and other OAO applications.

However don't neglect the long list of closely spaced constraints: Cardiff Central, Newport, Maindee West Jn, Severn Tunnel Jn, Patchway, Filton Abbey Wood, the Filton Bank, Bristol East Jn, and Bristol Temple Meads are all busy areas where limited room for flexibility in the new or existing paths exists. Whilst it may be the case that no single constraint is above 100% utilisation, the fact you have so many quite close together means that getting each to line up means paths may not be available for end-to-end trains despite nominal capacity being available at each individual junction.

Travelling from the north extends journey times and means finding paths on the Westerleigh - Standish Jn sections (or via the Golden Valley [Kemble], which may well have weight limits but would need to confirm.)
Sorry, I meant any train coming from the north would come down from the Birmingham area, and “turn right” at Gloucester and miss Westerleigh and the Severn Tunnel completely.
 

zwk500

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Sorry, I meant any train coming from the north would come down from the Birmingham area, and “turn right” at Gloucester and miss Westerleigh and the Severn Tunnel completely.
Apologies, misinterpreted your point. However, here's all the freight through the tunnel today:


How many freight paths are able to divert via Lydney (Sensibly)?

FWIW, the Severn Tunnel is not a new constraint. If there was a blindingly obvious solution, why do you think it hasn't been identified/implemented by now?
 
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The exile

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Specifically the total number of trains trying to use it. There's already 4tph from GWR, then Lumo, the freight and now this TfW. And that's before the potential TfW services for the new stations and other OAO applications.

However don't neglect the long list of closely spaced constraints: Cardiff Central, Newport, Maindee West Jn, Severn Tunnel Jn, Patchway, Filton Abbey Wood, the Filton Bank, Bristol East Jn, and Bristol Temple Meads are all busy areas where limited room for flexibility in the new or existing paths exists. Whilst it may be the case that no single constraint is above 100% utilisation, the fact you have so many quite close together means that getting each to line up means paths may not be available
Appreciate what you’re saying (which is why I expressed the pinch points as longer sections) but Filton Bank at least shouldn’t be an issue at present - IIRC there’s so far only been a net gain of 1 tph (passenger) in each direction since re-4-tracking. XC was already 2tph, as was Cardiff. The Filton shuttle is new but basically replaced the Weston - Parkway terminator. I realise that “when” is as important as “how many”. Temple Meads must be an issue, though.
 

zwk500

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Appreciate what you’re saying (which is why I expressed the pinch points as longer sections) but Filton Bank at least shouldn’t be an issue at present - IIRC there’s so far only been a net gain of 1 tph (passenger) in each direction since re-4-tracking. XC was already 2tph, as was Cardiff. The Filton shuttle is new but basically replaced the Weston - Parkway terminator. I realise that “when” is as important as “how many”. Temple Meads must be an issue, though.
2tph to Clifton Down (with single line constraint), 1tph but going to 2tph for Filton Abbey Wood/Henbury loop (with single line constraint), plus 1 or 2 tph Bristol-Cardiff, plus freight that takes a *very* long time up the hill when loaded due to it being just a tad steep.
Add in the lack of opportunities to cross between fasts and slows and the signalling constraints at Filton AW and yes, it's a constraint.
 

Torfaen

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It’s the Severn Tunnel, surely?

How many of these freight trains to the new EA furnace at Port Talbot will need to a) travel through the tunnel (surely trains from the North can come via Lydney?) and b) of those travelling through the tunnel how many could come at less busy times for passenger traffic (eg overnight)?
How many 'hazardous' freight trains go through the tunnel daily? As I understand it, any train in the opposite direction is held outside the tunnel if one of those is currently passing through. This effectively consumes a path in each direction.
Also, are there any regular freight trains that are too long to be looped at Pilning, if required?
 

zwk500

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How many 'hazardous' freight trains go through the tunnel daily? As I understand it, any train in the opposite direction is held outside the tunnel if one of those is currently passing through. This effectively consumes a path in each direction.
Correct.
Also, are there any regular freight trains that are too long to be looped at Pilning, if required?
No, Pilning Loops are long enough. However they also have very slow turnouts (20/30mph) and mean starting from a stand up a continuous 1:100 climb for trains towards England. The increase in the Runtime for looping in either direction is a quite glaring on the graph.
 

Dr Hoo

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Depends on how the rights have been applied, whether they are firm, or contingent rights and for how long.
Quite, but remember the fuss over Avanti’s fast Manchester-Euston when the firm rights expired. Lumo completely legitimately bid into the spare capacity, leaving a firebreak path intact.
There was then a big row with Network Rail being ‘persuaded’ to run at 100% capacity to keep the fast Manchester.

Can someone remind me which influential politician might have had something to do with this?
 

John R

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Apologies, misinterpreted your point. However, here's all the freight through the tunnel today:

Or more accurately, here are the freight paths through the tunnel, (90% of which don’t appear to be running today.)

Given that the tunnel is apparently close to capacity, there really needs to be a discussion as to how appropriate it is for very infrequently used paths to block a passenger service that will run daily, especially when the freight could find an alternative, albeit slower path via Gloucester on the odd occasion it actually runs.
 

zwk500

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Or more accurately, here are the freight paths through the tunnel, (90% of which don’t appear to be running today.

Given that the tunnel is apparently close to capacity, there really needs to be a discussion as to how appropriate it is for very infrequently used paths to block a passenger service that will run daily, especially when the freight could find an alternative, albeit slower path via Gloucester on the odd occasion it actually runs.
So you're not able to identify any path that can reasonably be diverted, with an alternative path forward when it rejoins the route and subject to all according gauge and RA/HAW restrictions?

But fine, we'll move on to your deflection - which paths can be removed under the network code? Berth data and ORR Rights tables are publicly available:

And does removal of paths allow the freight that remains to operate within a useful passenger timetable?
 

Krokodil

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Quite, but remember the fuss over Avanti’s fast Manchester-Euston when the firm rights expired. Lumo completely legitimately bid into the spare capacity, leaving a firebreak path intact.
There was then a big row with Network Rail being ‘persuaded’ to run at 100% capacity to keep the fast Manchester.

Can someone remind me which influential politician might have had something to do with this?
That was a long-established service though.
 

Snow1964

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I dont really understand the point in TFW starting this service if its only going to run for 1 year? Surely they would be better off concentrating on the current services they run (even though apparently only 1 unit is required for this service extension)
How successful the service will be is a calculated guess at the moment. If run it for few weeks/months can test how popular it is.

There will be the situation where PAYG is valid on TfW trains, but not GWR, so will some passengers swap. GWR also have a problem that their Portsmouth trains are 35 year old, poorly chilled and noisy which I bit of clever marketing might affect passengers preference. Not everyone wants to finish journey at Cardiff, so a cross city (west-east) service might attract.

Of course what happens when the year trial is up is anyones guess, but I bet it any loading demand info will be factored into proposed Burns service
 

stevie2006

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How successful the service will be is a calculated guess at the moment. If run it for few weeks/months can test how popular it is.

There will be the situation where PAYG is valid on TfW trains, but not GWR, so will some passengers swap. GWR also have a problem that their Portsmouth trains are 35 year old, poorly chilled and noisy which I bit of clever marketing might affect passengers preference. Not everyone wants to finish journey at Cardiff, so a cross city (west-east) service might attract.

Of course what happens when the year trial is up is anyones guess, but I bet it any loading demand info will be factored into proposed Burns service
Is there any update on Cardiff Parkway / the stations suggested by the Burns report?
Would there be time in the proposed schedules for the services to Bristol to serve these in the future?
 

Dr Day

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There will be the situation where PAYG is valid on TfW trains, but not GWR,
Between Cardiff and Severn Tunnel Junction, yes, but I'd be surprised if TfW would be putting in the necessary infrastructure on the Bristol side. They don't even have it at their own stations in England eg Hereford and Lydney.
 

Farigiraf

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Based on the notion that there may be paths now for this service but none next year, does this mean that the Lumo London-Carmarthen service is planned to take over the path used by this service on the SWML? If so, the initial representation of open access services as capacity-boosters using up unused paths (which does have some merit, particularly on a stagnating GBR network) is starting to be somewhat less accurate.

I'm sure a London - Cardiff fast service will do very well (at abstracting increasing revenue), with the extension to Carmarthen possibly increasing usage at stations like Llanelli and Gowerton. However I'm also fairly confident that a TFW service on the same corridor, which does actually have a sensible stopping pattern and increases capacity on a high-potential regional growth corridor like South Wales - Bristol, will do much better, even if the requirement to cross-subsidise loss-making lines does result in no bargain fares.

Of course if both can be fit in then you may as well do so, as it's unlikely there are plans to use the space capacity for much else, but between five Ryanair-style London expresses or a regular frequency regional connector on a high-potential corridor, I know which one I'd prefer. It's true that any train to London does usually have the potential to generate much more revenue, but that's mostly because the network is so London-centric, growing other regional routes will help reverse that to some extent.
 

John R

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So you're not able to identify any path that can reasonably be diverted, with an alternative path forward when it rejoins the route and subject to all according gauge and RA/HAW restrictions?

But fine, we'll move on to your deflection - which paths can be removed under the network code? Berth data and ORR Rights tables are publicly available:

And does removal of paths allow the freight that remains to operate within a useful passenger timetable?
Of course I can’t identify alternative paths. I don’t work in the rail industry. There’s no need to be passive aggressive.

All I am saying is that if an established TOC, supported by its national government, wants to introduce new daily services through the tunnel which, (according to your post), is heavily “used” by freight services which actually rarely run, and which block the aspiration of that government, then the regulatory framework of the railway is not working properly.
 

sh24

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Surely increasing capacity on existing services should be the starting point.
 

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