Reopenings - the positive narrative the railway industry needs !

[stevieinselby]

I'll give a concrete example, to see if that moves some of the people who are obviously ecstatic that the forecasts were exceeded, to ponder how this line can actually be seen as a miserable failure (of planning, imagination, leadership), and thus nothing to shout about.

The Ashington terminus has a nice big car park next to it. Why? That space is large enough for multiple doubler decker buses to call at the station, offloading and picking up people just yards from the platform.

It could have even also accomodated a nice large station buidling, warm, dry, with waiting areas and hot food avaiable. Maybe the Ashington tourist office too.

We are told the politicians want joined up transport, we are told the buses and trains in this area will soon all be in public hands. It is said we are aiming to restore if not increase bus ridership levels, as a critical part of the solution to getting people out of their cars. The buses in that area are going electric already.

So why was that terminus designed with the assumption that car drivers are more important than bus users? It may not seem like a long walk to the actual bus station, but in the pouring rain, with kids, luggage, dodging the local crack heads, it's enough to make you not want to do it, if you have the means. What gives them the means if they don't already have it? Economic growth boosted by a train line.

Counterpoint, there have been plenty of new or improved railway stations built with convenient bus stops but the privatised bus industry has declined to provide them with any useful service. Barry Docks remains underused, Thanet Parkway has no buses at all, Horden only sees a very limited selection of buses compared to what runs to Peterlee town centre.

Access to the western side of Ashington station by bus would be difficult, there's a very narrow one-way road from the main street which looks like it could be a tricky turn, and then a very circuitous return – I would be very surprised if Arriva were at all interested in serving it. Then what? Leave it as a big white elephant, or spend a lot of money directing bus operators to run a service they don't want to run and which would have significant operational costs?

 

[quantinghome]

In GB, rail is a second class afterthought, and that's no more obvious than in the left behind north.

I don't think that aligns with reality.

We're in the middle of a £11bn upgrade of the Transpennine route.
Darlington station has had a big upgrade.
Northumberland line has reopened.
NPR is progressing (this time with actual money behind it).
(I'll not list other station redevelopments, new stations and platform extensions for reasons of space).

Meanwhile, what comparable road investment is happening? Mottram bypass, Simister Island and the A66 are about it. Other purported schemes like replacing the ageing M62/M1 junction, upgrading the A1 from Doncaster to the M62, or providing a parallel route to the northern section of the M60 are going nowhere.

We are a world away from the 1970s and 1980s where roads got the lions share of investment and rail was contracting.

 

[Magrar]

Counterpoint, there have been plenty of new or improved railway stations built with convenient bus stops but the privatised bus industry has declined to provide them with any useful service. Barry Docks remains underused, Thanet Parkway has no buses at all, Horden only sees a very limited selection of buses compared to what runs to Peterlee town centre.

Access to the western side of Ashington station by bus would be difficult, there's a very narrow one-way road from the main street which looks like it could be a tricky turn, and then a very circuitous return – I would be very surprised if Arriva were at all interested in serving it. Then what? Leave it as a big white elephant, or spend a lot of money directing bus operators to run a service they don't want to run and which would have significant operational costs?

Well it's chicken or egg isn't it?

Is it not physically or economically practical to serve this Ashington terminus because the local bus operator is private, the road layout is tight and the location poor, or....has a poor location and the exclusion of bus access from planning/construction considerations meant that a private bus operator couldn't serve this station with a bus even if it wanted to, and nor could the council do it (using one of the many ways councils are now allowed to provide bus services where private operators refuse).

 

[Zomboid]

So you'd rather they hadn't opened the railway?

 

[Magrar]

So you'd rather they hadn't opened the railway?

As I said at the bottom of page 7, the question at hand is not whether it should have been done (it should), it's whether it's worth shouting about.

 

[zwk500]

P85 has the phase 2 (i.e. 6 stations open) has a higher passenger numbers of 704,000 for 2025 with 1.45 million expected in 2039. The table below covers the main passenger data.

Forecast Year	Concession Demand	Franchise Demand
4 station Opening Year (2024)	362,000 journeys	442,000 journeys
6 station Full opening (2025)	572,000 journeys	704,000 journeys
Long-Term Horizon (2039)	1,160,000 journeys	1,450,000 journeys

This table shows return journeys, so you need to double it for comparison with northerns numbers.

This was clearly shown under the table.

 

[The Ham]

This table shows return journeys, so you need to double it for comparison with northerns numbers.

This was clearly shown under the table.

Thanks, didn't spot that.

 

[geordieblue]

however the Blythe line is separated for most of its route outside Newcastle.

You mention below your ‘ecstasy’ at the line’s opening; does that extend to a knowledge of how to spell one of the two major settlements on its route?!

(Tongue in cheek - but you have been corrected twice on this thread already!)

 

[yorksrob]

You mention below your ‘ecstasy’ at the line’s opening; does that extend to a knowledge of how to spell one of the two major settlements on its route?!

(Tongue in cheek - but you have been corrected twice on this thread already!)

Put it down to my dodgy dialect.

If you think pedantry's more important than decent public services, that's your prerogative

Yeah, spelling was never my strong point.

 

[geordieblue]

Put it down to my dodgy dialect.

If you think pedantry's more important than decent public services, that's your prerogative

Yeah, spelling was never my strong point.

I am delighted that Blyth and Ashington have a decent train service again

 

[yorksrob]

I am delighted that Blyth and Ashington have a decent train service again

Wherever it is, it's good !

 

[The Ham]

This table shows return journeys, so you need to double it for comparison with northerns numbers.

This was clearly shown under the table.

I've had chance to review the numbers a bit more.

Comparing the Franchise numbers for the first year of opening with only 4 stations open was projected to have 362,000 return trips. As such would be 724,000 individual trips.

That puts the first year number of 920,000 around 24% higher than the franchise prediction.

The concession numbers 442,000 (predicted) means a total of 884,000, so the 920,000 is still 4% higher.

The difference is that it was expected that a concession would offer cheaper tickets. I've not found what this is expected to look like and how this compares with the current ticket prices.

This current year (now all 6 stations are open) will be interesting to see how it compares to the 2025 predicted flows.

 

[cle]

I don't think that aligns with reality.

We're in the middle of a £11bn upgrade of the Transpennine route.
Darlington station has had a big upgrade.
Northumberland line has reopened.
NPR is progressing (this time with actual money behind it).
(I'll not list other station redevelopments, new stations and platform extensions for reasons of space).

Meanwhile, what comparable road investment is happening? Mottram bypass, Simister Island and the A66 are about it. Other purported schemes like replacing the ageing M62/M1 junction, upgrading the A1 from Doncaster to the M62, or providing a parallel route to the northern section of the M60 are going nowhere.

We are a world away from the 1970s and 1980s where roads got the lions share of investment and rail was contracting.

It would actually be good to compare this with other regions. East Anglia is getting a lot of work around Cambridge specifically, but little else (Stansted is a bottleneck, Ely is too hard / no money pile, the service to P'boro/ECML is poor)

Bristol is having a local rail renaissance, but the rest of the SW isn't seeing much. The South itself (Sussex and Home Counties) isn't see much at all - Elizabeth Line aside - to improve the many bottlenecks and capacity issues.

Wigan-Bolton being wired before Didcot-Oxford is quite something, yet barely being used! NPR / TPE upgrade is seeing far more incremental wiring up north.

Again, it's not always a north/south argument, everyone feels hard done by because there is just an endless list of things you could in theory do.

 

[Magrar]

How will the extra revenues arising from the Ashington line's unexpected "success" be spent, is a good question.

Anything worth shouting about there?

Local rewards for local patronage? Money ring fenced as succesfully as every square inch of the new line?

 

[Bald Rick]

How will the extra revenues arising from the Ashington line's unexpected "success" be spent, is a good question.

It will be spent on running the servuce.

 

[The Ham]

It will be spent on running the servuce.

Indeed, from the report:

https://gat04-live-1517c8a4486c41609369c68f30c8-aa81074.divio-media.org/filer_public/8a/86/8a8630d6-93bf-44f6-8b0d-0bd6039d69d4/app40_-_outline_business_case_november_2019.pdf

At the UK plc level, the scheme is forecast to generate a revenue surplus. At the Northern Franchise level, the scheme is expected to require a subsidy that declines over time to less than £0.5m per annum by year 5. The Concession operator will also require subsidy, but to a greater level than the Northern Franchise.

The table just above this has the year 2 subsidy (fully opened) as £1.9 million for Northern Franchise.

The extra 24% (assuming an average ticket price of £1.20) that's only going to reduce that to circa £1.6 million.

As such there's still a significant way to go.

That's assuming that tickets aren't at Concession rates in which case that extra flow wound only reduce the subsidy to around £3 million.

 

[Irascible]

That would be a bit of a long way round, unless you run over part of the B&W rly to Wadebridge, thence on to Padstow,

I would prefer it if the line from Barnstable were to be reopened , to Bideford, thence on to halwell, then along the north Cornwall coast to Padstow,

I think you could probably walk there faster than that line. Torrington to Halwell was a Cnl Stephens light railway, and the North Cornwall line wasn't much better. Realistically Padstow is going to be served by road ( or, I guess, boat ).

Reopening to Bideford has been discussed a lot, there's no real impediments as the route has been pretty well preserved - except all those level crossings in Bideford. There are quite a few. My pet unlikely project would be putting Ilfracombe back, but that would need a new alignment, a new bridge and ploughing through Braunton somehow ( which is not *quite* as bad as it sounds ) or around it, so even allowing for Ilfracombe's deprivation there's no chance a CBA is getting close to 0

Much of the SW peninsula is not amazingly well suited to public transport, let alone sustainable, I'm not massively optimistic about it's future. But hey it's the South, right? the land that gets it all?

 

[JohnofWessex]

I think you could probably walk there faster than that line. Torrington to Halwell was a Cnl Stephens light railway, and the North Cornwall line wasn't much better. Realistically Padstow is going to be served by road ( or, I guess, boat ).

Reopening to Bideford has been discussed a lot, there's no real impediments as the route has been pretty well preserved - except all those level crossings in Bideford. There are quite a few. My pet unlikely project would be putting Ilfracombe back, but that would need a new alignment, a new bridge and ploughing through Braunton somehow ( which is not *quite* as bad as it sounds ) or around it, so even allowing for Ilfracombe's deprivation there's no chance a CBA is getting close to 0

Much of the SW peninsula is not amazingly well suited to public transport, let alone sustainable, I'm not massively optimistic about it's future. But hey it's the South, right? the land that gets it all?

Many years ago I was told that I was going to be a stoker on MV Balmoral for a trip via Padstow to Penzance and that if my boss didnt give me the day off the Chief would have words with him.

We arrived at Padstow & the Chief emerged from the engine room to give birth to a litter of kittens when he saw how much water there was.

Its very tidal!

As at Aberdovey it was fuel lever to overload as soon as we were pointed towards the sea.

 

[stevieinselby]

Reopening to Bideford has been discussed a lot, there's no real impediments as the route has been pretty well preserved - except all those level crossings in Bideford. There are quite a few. My pet unlikely project would be putting Ilfracombe back, but that would need a new alignment, a new bridge and ploughing through Braunton somehow ( which is not *quite* as bad as it sounds ) or around it, so even allowing for Ilfracombe's deprivation there's no chance a CBA is getting close to 0

Threading the railway through Sticklepath Interchange would be a bit of work, although it looks as though the roads are elevated above the line of the railway you would still need to get underneath them – and the Tarka Trail is a popular amenity and losing it would be unpopular with a lot of tourists and local businesses. (The same argument we had recently about the Monsal Trail)

 

[yorksrob]

I think you could probably walk there faster than that line. Torrington to Halwell was a Cnl Stephens light railway, and the North Cornwall line wasn't much better. Realistically Padstow is going to be served by road ( or, I guess, boat ).

Reopening to Bideford has been discussed a lot, there's no real impediments as the route has been pretty well preserved - except all those level crossings in Bideford. There are quite a few. My pet unlikely project would be putting Ilfracombe back, but that would need a new alignment, a new bridge and ploughing through Braunton somehow ( which is not *quite* as bad as it sounds ) or around it, so even allowing for Ilfracombe's deprivation there's no chance a CBA is getting close to 0

Much of the SW peninsula is not amazingly well suited to public transport, let alone sustainable, I'm not massively optimistic about it's future. But hey it's the South, right? the land that gets it all?

I think its the opposite - much of the SW peninsular isn't well suited to long distance bus travel, which helps to explain the popularity of the surviving local railways.

Padstow is a case in point - the bus from Bodmin is all long, windy country roads. The railway would be a vast improvement.

 

[WAO]

The positive narrative on re-openings that the railway needs is for new services that are well used and do not cause a media scandal in delay, cost or over-engineering. With the exception of HS2 and East-West Rail, the other openings/re-openings generally pass this test. Even the (very advanced) Crossrail's over-runs came in within about an acceptable 20%; and I don't think that the public or media are bothered with the niceties of the BCR ratio, especially in the poorer regions.

WAO

 

[Bald Rick]

This news is relevant to this thread.

New bus route linking Carmarthen and Bangor to launch by autumn

The Welsh government say the service will cost about £2m to run in the first year.

www.bbc.co.uk

A coach service linking north and south Wales is to launch by the autumn, the Welsh government has said.
Multiple services will run daily using eight vehicles bought for the route, which will be about 90 minutes quicker than the current six-hour rail journey.
They will stop at Bangor railway station, Caernarfon, Porthmadog railway station, Dolgellau, Machynlleth, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth bus station, Aberaeron and Carmarthen railway station
The Welsh government said the service, which will cost about £2m to run in the first year, will improve connectivity, access to jobs, education and healthcare.
Deputy transport minister, Mark Hooper, said: "For decades, many rural communities have been ill-served by public transport, but this new coach service is the first step in improving connectivity between the north and the south of Wales."

Two things stand out.

1) this is happening in a matter of weeks, rather than a similar number of years to progress a new railway covering similar ground

2) the annual operating costs of £2m, which are rather less than half the annual train service operating costs of, say, Whitland to Pembroke Dock.

 

[The Ham]

This news is relevant to this thread.

New bus route linking Carmarthen and Bangor to launch by autumn

The Welsh government say the service will cost about £2m to run in the first year.

www.bbc.co.uk

Two things stand out.

1) this is happening in a matter of weeks, rather than a similar number of years to progress a new railway covering similar ground

2) the annual operating costs of £2m, which are rather less than half the annual train service operating costs of, say, Whitland to Pembroke Dock.

True, although the other thing to consider is that the bus service can be withdrawn just as fast. Even to take out a single diagram on the railways can only really happen at timetable changes (yes I know that the TOC could just cancel the services, but that will impact their reliability scores).

 

[Bald Rick]

yes I know that the TOC could just cancel the services, but that will impact their reliability scores).

Doesn’t affect the scores if it is a planned cancellation, eg during engineering works, or for examlpe the reductions we are seeing over the summer for some operators.

Your main point is true of corse, easy come easy go. But then for a small scale, less predictable demand, that’s what’s needed. Use it or lose it.

 

[yorksrob]

This news is relevant to this thread.

New bus route linking Carmarthen and Bangor to launch by autumn

The Welsh government say the service will cost about £2m to run in the first year.

www.bbc.co.uk

Two things stand out.

1) this is happening in a matter of weeks, rather than a similar number of years to progress a new railway covering similar ground

2) the annual operating costs of £2m, which are rather less than half the annual train service operating costs of, say, Whitland to Pembroke Dock.

I'm sure that's very good news for local passengers, although two things stand out for me from the article:

- It says that current services have "no toilets and limited stops" which suggests that its an enhancement of an existing bus corridor, rather than a rail alternative.

- On the subject of rail, it says that "costs remain high due to indirect routes through England" This is down to fares policy. There's nothing to stop TfW introducing cheaper North/South fares, even though there's a bit of a detour through Shrewsbury.

 

[zwk500]

- It says that current services have "no toilets and limited stops" which suggests that its an enhancement of an existing bus corridor, rather than a rail alternative.

It will be particularly interesting to compare custom on journeys that are wholly or substantially within the section also covered by rail (Aberystwyth - Porthmadog).

 

[yorksrob]

It will be particularly interesting to compare custom on journeys that are wholly or substantially within the section also covered by rail (Aberystwyth - Porthmadog).

Yes, that will be genuinely interesting.

Fares will be a factor I suspect - does Wales have an equivalent to the £3 bus fare scheme ?

 

[WAO]

IIRC,
The Carmarthen bus is for 8 services/day, taking c6hours for 133 miles. At £2M/year subsidy, it does not suggest much custom but the argument is that it gives connectivity to small villages along the way, at a politically acceptable but clearly uneconomic cost. Some customers would no doubt change to rail at Portmadoc or Machynlleth at no marginal cost to the railway.

The bus is clearly the winner here as business will be "light" with only 8 vehicle trips each way per day.

A re/opened rail link elsewhere but within population centres with say three car sets operating hourly, say 18 workings each way per day, would give 54 vehicle trips/day each way. Bus costs will increase linearly but rail costs are high initially but low marginally; capacity favouring rail.

Governments since Classical times have always provided comprehensive transport opportunities of one mode or another even when strictly uneconomic. It's called "Civilisation".

WAO

 

[Irascible]

Threading the railway through Sticklepath Interchange would be a bit of work, although it looks as though the roads are elevated above the line of the railway you would still need to get underneath them – and the Tarka Trail is a popular amenity and losing it would be unpopular with a lot of tourists and local businesses. (The same argument we had recently about the Monsal Trail)

DCC swore when the interchange was being built that they'd leave provision for the railway to be replaced, which I suspect is why the A361 bridges the end of the station area rather than being on an embankment. The A3125 does chop it off, but that's a slightly more minor road & you could probably shut it to put a bridge in without overt chaos. My bigger issue is there's a road straight from Bideford to the station via one roundabout, and the railway would go all the way round the coast. Is it really like the Monsal trail though? the railway here is about shipping people into Exeter, not ferrying tourists out to the coast.

Many years ago I was told that I was going to be a stoker on MV Balmoral for a trip via Padstow to Penzance and that if my boss didnt give me the day off the Chief would have words with him.

We arrived at Padstow & the Chief emerged from the engine room to give birth to a litter of kittens when he saw how much water there was.

Its very tidal!

As at Aberdovey it was fuel lever to overload as soon as we were pointed towards the sea.

as someone who grew up on the N Devon beaches, I can concur, it certainly is tidal! the ferry from Ilfracombe to Lundy manages somehow.

I think its the opposite - much of the SW peninsular isn't well suited to long distance bus travel, which helps to explain the popularity of the surviving local railways.

Padstow is a case in point - the bus from Bodmin is all long, windy country roads. The railway would be a vast improvement.

It would, if it's affordable. But another case in point, for all the coastal towns along Lyme Bay a bus is the only option and it just about works out for DCC. The slightly more rural areas, and there's quite a lot ( think of Holsworthy, South Molton - which is 3x the size of Padstow, lots of places like that in D&C, mostly market towns ) even a bus is borderline. If cars get too expensive to run - let's not forget how unfriendly these areas are to EV operation - they're just going to die. Let's hope buses get cheaper because a lot of places will need public transport and with the best will in the world, they're not getting railways.

Where do people in Padstow actually want to go?

 

[RT4038]

IIRC,
The Carmarthen bus is for 8 services/day, taking c6hours for 133 miles. At £2M/year subsidy, it does not suggest much custom but the argument is that it gives connectivity to small villages along the way, at a politically acceptable but clearly uneconomic cost. Some customers would no doubt change to rail at Portmadoc or Machynlleth at no marginal cost to the railway.

The bus is clearly the winner here as business will be "light" with only 8 vehicle trips each way per day.

A re/opened rail link elsewhere but within population centres with say three car sets operating hourly, say 18 workings each way per day, would give 54 vehicle trips/day each way. Bus costs will increase linearly but rail costs are high initially but low marginally; capacity favouring rail.

Governments since Classical times have always provided comprehensive transport opportunities of one mode or another even when strictly uneconomic. It's called "Civilisation".

WAO

To be fair, the article states that the service will cost £2m/year to run, which if operating Daily sounds about right. It makes no reference to any estimate of revenue generated, or that this has been offset against the £2m, and therefore any suggestion of not much custom is yours.
Bus operating costs will increase linearly as frequency increases, but the capital costs of using the existing roads are marginal. It will take a long time for business on a Carmarthen-Aberystwyth-Bangor route to increase to such an extent to tip the balance towards rail infrastructure investment.