18/6/2026 by-elections - including Makerfield

[SuspectUsual]

So Robert Kenyon has started by saying we need less “career politicians” in this country. Does he not realise his boss is the ultimate career politician?

 

[81A]

I said that in jest

Ah, sorry, it is a bit difficult to detect humour on the internet….

Edit-to simplify and improve readability.

 

[nw1]

This is an important point to make

tutacre:
I would just point out gently, that there's a lot of views being shared on here which would seem to almost mock Reform supporters / more right leaning minded people, particularly older voters.

Now it is all well and good doing that - in a free society - but I think it causes people to somehow think Reform are a minority or harbour fringe views. The reality is, that they absolutely have a very realistic and fairly strong chance of winning the next election, whether it's in coalition with other very right parties or with a whopping majority. They have a huge role to play now in our society, as they are influential, precisely because of their popularity, resourcing and supporters.

The irony is that some of the attitude towards Reform on this forum is what helps them win even greater support - as it can come across as upsetting "lefties" (great for them) or being targets of a left wing agenda (invokes sympathy and encourages people to want to stand up against the left).

I wonder if it has occurred to some of you, that perhaps you are actually the minority these days?

When I see posts like the above, it's a bit worrying - just what sort of country this has become?

FIrstly I'd hope Reform will not win a "whopping majority", I'd hope there are enough people who are afraid of them to stop this happening, through tactical voting.
I'd hope that more sensible right-leaning voters would switch back to the Conservatives. I'm not a fan of Badenoch but at least I consider her someone who would not inflict major problems on the country. Put it this way, I could live under Badenoch, I am extremely worried about living under Reform.

If Reform critics are "in the minority", if the sheer nastiness of Reform is being normalised and they do have a realistic chance of getting a majority, if it's the Reform critics who are the "odd" ones, then what sort of country has the UK become?

Are we a country where most people believe:

- in harsh cuts to the public sector,
- in harsh attitudes to immigration,
- in possible carving up of the NHS (no idea whether this will actually happen but I have seen people mention it as a possibility),
- in harsh attitudes to trans people,
- where public sector jobs could disappear as a result of cuts, but also on ideological grounds,
- where "intellectual" jobs could be threatened due to a combination of cuts and and apparent populist inverse snobbery,
- where school teachers are policed by the government to ensure they don't even let out a hint of a view that could be vaguely interpreted as slightly liberal,
- where we lose our international reputation due to having a PM that the sensible world will laugh at (Farage as our representative? The UK will become an international joke),
- where the economy could crash due to decisions being made as a result of reactionary right-wing politics rather than pragmatism,
- where all attempts to build bridges with the EU are destroyed leaving us on our own and at the mercy of the world's very worst players,
- where demonisation of "woke" views are normalised?

Because those are all my personal fears of what a Reform government could possibly be like, so if you're tolerating Reform, you are tolerating the risk of the above.

And are you now a minority for:

- wanting a well-funded public sector,
- wanting a middle-of-the-road approach to immigration,
- improving the NHS through better funding,
- valuing "intellectual" jobs,
- letting public sector workers get on with their job without political interference,
- leaving trans people and other minorities alone,
- wanting good relations with the EU,
- wanting to be taken seriously by the western world at large,
- and wanting continuing acceptance of "woke" views?

And is "the left" the number one political enemy of most people, even though "the left" have had close-to-zero influence since 1979?

Because if this is true, to be quite frank, what sort of place has the UK become? A country of people who are either hardline right-wingers or tolerate hardline right-wing views because they're seen as less bad than liberal or leftish views?

It's actually the possible consequences for jobs, services and the economy that worry me the most, bad though the social aspects are too.

Sorry if this comes across as a bit of a rant, but the above are (for me personally) a couple of really disturbing posts and I've never been more concerned about the medium-term future of the UK than I am now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jun 2026 ==

So Robert Kenyon has started by saying we need less “career politicians” in this country. Does he not realise his boss is the ultimate career politician?

What the country certainly does not need is people like Kenyon. If parliament is filled with people with his views and his attitude, we have a dire future ahead of us, on multiple levels.

 

[edwin_m]

Turning over in my head Kenyon's statement that the views that he expressed in the past were when he was an "ordinary bloke" and not a politician.

So did his views change because he's gone into politics? Or is it just that he's learned to hide them?

 

[oldman]

To take a few of your points:

Are we a country where most people believe:

- in harsh cuts to the public sector,
Many people believe they are overtaxed and that too much of their money is being spent in transfer payments from people who work to people who don't.

- in harsh attitudes to immigration,
Many people believe that migration should be controlled as a prerequisite for rebuilding social cohesion which is showing worrying signs of fraying

- in harsh attitudes to trans people,
Many people agree with the Supreme Court judgement as a starting point for policy

- where public sector jobs could disappear as a result of cuts, but also on ideological grounds,
- where "intellectual" jobs could be threatened due to a combination of cuts and and apparent populist inverse snobbery,
Many people believe a lot of public-sector white-collar jobs are overpaid and of little value.

Some of these are my views, some not, but they are not unreasonable views to hold.

Unfortunately too many people see the right as more in tune with their views and ignore the true right-wing agenda. The same thing in the USA where many intelligent, decent, middle-class people vote for Trump, who is none of those things.

 

[nw1]

To take a few of your points:


- in harsh cuts to the public sector,
Many people believe they are overtaxed and that too much of their money is being spent in transfer payments from people who work to people who don't.

- in harsh attitudes to immigration,
Many people believe that migration should be controlled as a prerequisite for rebuilding social cohesion which is showing worrying signs of fraying

- in harsh attitudes to trans people,
Many people agree with the Supreme Court judgement as a starting point for policy

- where public sector jobs could disappear as a result of cuts, but also on ideological grounds,
- where "intellectual" jobs could be threatened due to a combination of cuts and and apparent populist inverse snobbery,
Many people believe a lot of public-sector white-collar jobs are overpaid and of little value.

Some of these are my views, some not, but they are not unreasonable views to hold.

Unfortunately too many people see the right as more in tune with their views and ignore the true right-wing agenda. The same thing in the USA where many intelligent, decent, middle-class people vote for Trump, who is none of those things.

Then surely Badenoch's Tories are more their natural home? She is more moderate and I think can be trusted far more to be pragmatic and sensible than Farage and Reform, whatever her own personal views on some of these matters might be.

I am not a Tory and not a fan of Badenoch, but I still think the Tories might come through the middle and could come first on the basis of being both "not Labour" and "not too extreme" as well as Badenoch herself seemingly becoming increasingly regarded as the reasonable voice of the right. I've never been happy with a Tory first-placing in any election, but if it were to happen in 2029 it might be something of a relief, when you look at some of the more extreme alternatives!

All that said, I would still far prefer Labour to the Tories, or ideally a Lab-Lib-Green coalition.

I do find that the attitude that a lot of public-sector white-collar jobs are "overpaid and of little value" as a particularly toxic example of the politics of envy - do they actually know that these jobs are "overpaid and of little value"?

Regarding Trump we do seem to be seeing the US's love affair with him ending, going by opinion polls (something like 60% disapprove, 35% approve IIRC). The US seems set to move on in 2028, just hope we don't subject ourselves to our own Trumpian dystopia just as the US frees itself from its own one.

 

[WesternLancer]

Then surely Badenoch's Tories are more their natural home? She is more moderate and I think can be trusted far more to be pragmatic and sensible than Farage and Reform, whatever her own personal views on some of these matters might be.

I am not a Tory and not a fan of Badenoch, but I still think the Tories might come through the middle and could come first on the basis of being both "not Labour" and "not too extreme" as well as Badenoch herself seemingly becoming increasingly regarded as the reasonable voice of the right. I've never been happy with a Tory first-placing in any election, but if it were to happen in 2029 it might be something of a relief, when you look at some of the more extreme alternatives!

The problem, the Tories have is they are tainted by their period in power which means many people just won't vote for them any more and have decided Farage is more credible (this is of course the natural end result of being in power for any government ever as far as I recall - ultimately) and their seeming inability to resolve the difficult questions many Reform voters are unhappy about - which is ultimately a declining standard of living for them and many if not most of the people they are likely to know reasonably well on a personal level (or when the Tories did, eg slashing public spending, many voters started to be rather unhappy about the consequences - which then becomes fertile ground to blame not the cuts - but people like immigrants who are supposedly overburdening the welfare system - allegedly)

So this is why Badenoch struggles - because there is for the 1st time a seemingly credible alternative party of the right

That many such voters are actually rather more dependent on much of this welfare spending than they seem to realise (and certainly more dependent than immigrants are) than more affluent middle class people (who could afford to pay, for example, for quite a bit of health care if they really were forced to do so, just like some middle class people pay for private schooling - unlike say people on lower incomes even who work full time who would never have funds for private medial treatment / schooling etc) does not seem to occur to many of those same voters.....

In contrast Reform have never had to make any choices in power* - apart from their record in Local Government which only started about a year ago and in may cases is fairly woeful - - but gets very little public scrutiny because the now almost non existent local media rarely cover local council politics and work any more - so the scrutiny is weak - and many voters seem unable to realise that much of the public services they see when they walk out of their front door is actually the responsibility of the local council - which itself has been so heavily centrally controlled since the creation of the Poll Tax that it's open to question how much local councillors can do to deliver meaningful change for the communities they serve anyway....

To bring it back to Makerfield I heard ex Tory Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on the radio the other day making the point that Andy Burnham as Mayor of Manchester must be the only Mayor of a major City in Europe who has no ability to decide how tax should be raised in the area that he is Mayor of, and that for any significant spending project needs to go cap in hand to HM govt for funding approval.


*I guess with the exception of all the ex tory elected MPs and Cllrs who are now in Reform....and possibly people from other parties too (eg see also Lee Anderson's time in Labour before being a Tory)

 

[GraphitProjekt]

When I see posts like the above, it's a bit worrying - just what sort of country this has become?

At least in my opinion, it really does seem like Reform's core strategy is relying on political disenfranchisement. If we keep going around saying they're the most important political force with the backing of majority of people, then to some extent that kind of rhetoric wills it into being true. They now have a lot of momentum with the sentiment that they can't be stopped so voters who could be mobilised as opponents to Reform just stay home, and many more simply refuse to engage in politics or just go along with what they're social group is voting which for many is Reform. But up to this point mainstream broadcast and print have given Farage such a soft time for years, and constantly platformed him with relative uncritically. Actual public sentiment against refugees (and I'd guess trans people too) mainly ebb and flow with how lampooned those groups are in the media. When small boats reporting goes down, so does negative sentiment towards them. Fundamentally we are a country that distrusts politicians way more than mainstream media outlets even though they mostly work together.

 

[brad465]

Odds have really shortened for Labour now: 2/9 for Labour and 4/1 for Reform UK

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/makerfield

 

[Purple Train]

Ah, sorry, it is a bit difficult to detect humour on the internet….

I 100% agree there is quite a bit of nonsense and hypocrisy on the right (just look at Trump lol), I just think that some people on the left/right tend to mock all people on the other side and call them stupid when there are some genuine points on both sides (and much focus on this forum seems to go one way, ignoring issues on the other side).

Excellently put.

When I see posts like the above, it's a bit worrying - just what sort of country this has become?

I don't think it's "become" anything. I don't think there is any great rise in far-right beliefs in this country. Many of the people now voting Reform will have voted Conservative in 2019 and then Labour for maybe decades before that, without their views having changed at all really, beyond the usual drift towards social conservatism as one gets older; certainly they have not drifted enough to be considered far-right. Instead, I think what has happened is simply that many people who feel disenfranchised - predominantly white, working-class people from neglected and often looked-down-upon areas of the country - are desperately searching for a way to make themselves heard electorally, as if this would re-enfranchise them. And so these people, who are not themselves far-right, vote for a far-right party as they are the only party who represent this worldview. Couple that to the actions of bad actors from abroad and yes, there does appear to be a huge far-right presence in this country. But then it suits both sides to claim that there is.

FIrstly I'd hope Reform will not win a "whopping majority", I'd hope there are enough people who are afraid of them to stop this happening, through tactical voting.

I'm sure there are enough people who would be afraid enough of Reform. However, the left is doing very well indeed fighting itself that I am slightly worried that we leftists as a collective won't vote tactically unless forced. Plus it's very hard to vote tactically when we have two very new major players, in Reform and the Greens, compared to the last elections. For instance, there's a council by-election in my ward that is genuinely impossible to predict because of how much things have changed since our last election here in 2023.

I'd hope that more sensible right-leaning voters would switch back to the Conservatives.

I don't think there's an awful amount to choose between them, to be honest, given Badenoch has spent most of her leadership following the same tactics as Starmer, though it'll be interesting to see what happens if Farage continues moving right.

I'm not a fan of Badenoch but at least I consider her someone who would not inflict major problems on the country. Put it this way, I could live under Badenoch, I am extremely worried about living under Reform.

I do agree with you here - I think Badenoch would be an ineffectual PM, while Farage would be effectual in what I view as the worst way! But I think what will happen is that the Conservatives will end up squeezed against the Lib Dems for the middle-class, right-leaning vote, rather than occupying the same electoral circles as Reform.

If Reform critics are "in the minority"

No. No political party has a minority of critics.

, if the sheer nastiness of Reform is being normalised and they do have a realistic chance of getting a majority

I don't think they have a realistic chance of getting a majority as things stand, but of course politics moves quicker than a child towards a sweet shop.

, if it's the Reform critics who are the "odd" ones, then what sort of country has the UK become?

I don't think anybody has claimed that Reform UK critics are odd. I think the point which was being made is that an attitude has been espoused on this thread that everybody who votes Reform is vacuous, brainless, moronic, idiotic, or fascistic, with the implication that they are unworthy of even the most basic respect or understanding - which I'm sure people don't mean literally, but which is counterintuitive for two reasons: one, it simply isn't true, as I have outlined, and two, such broad-brush insults have never contributed to intelligent debate, and will simply fuel the notion common among Reform voters that they are being ignored and disenfranchised by Westminster/the South/liberals/elites (delete as appropriate). I don't blame you, or anyone else, for feeling strongly about Reform. I feel strongly about Reform. But I feel there is a constructive way to engage with the debate without resorting to name-calling - which certainly I've done far too much of myself - which I think Tutacre was getting at.

Are we a country where most people believe:

It will never be "most people". It's currently less than a quarter even if you assume that every Reform voter believes in every single one of their policies, which is not an assumption that I think bears weight.

Bear in mind that in the below list I am not agreeing with these viewpoints, but attempting to explain where I think they might be coming from for what I see as the most significant proportion of Reform's voter base.

- in harsh cuts to the public sector,

Almost certainly not, given the way the majority of them have voted in the past. It's not as if Boris convinced them that the free hand of capitalism would save them, no; he just promised them a golden Brexit.

- in harsh attitudes to immigration,

Yes, but I don't think that, for most Reform voters, it comes from malice, more fear. From the leadership it comes from malice, and very probably from a fair few of their elected officials, yes. But the rank and file are predominantly people from 97% white areas who have little to no experience of a multicultural area, but who fear it because it's not what they know, and because they feel like a downtrodden minority already in their own country, having been neglected by near enough 50 years'-worth of government, and fear becoming a minority in their own familiar town - which is not a rational fear but it doesn't make it less real. (Remember that many of these people will have roots in their town going back generations - I think I'm one of two or three, if that, in my primary school cohort of 60 who have moved out of the environs of Nottingham or Mansfield.) And because they don't form a country, like Scotland or Wales, they can't channel these feelings of neglect into cries for devolution or independence, so the closest thing they can get to a cohesive identity is the English flag, which leads to this vicious cycle of cynical far-right agitation.

- in possible carving up of the NHS (no idea whether this will actually happen but I have seen people mention it as a possibility),

No. But then I can near enough guarantee you that nearly all prospective Reform voters in, for instance, the Red Wall won't know about this, because Reform only peddle the one policy which they know they can keep manipulating their base with.

- in harsh attitudes to trans people,

Yes, on this matter I think you are correct in your assessment: but, as above, I think in most cases it stems from fear that "wokery" is representative of the educated "elite", rather than any determined bigotry or hatred. I think the fear of anything that seems remotely academic is harder to unpick, but then of course until comparatively recently a university education wouldn't have been very accessible to many people in these areas, and culturally, given many of them were in the past built around physical labour (e.g. pit villages), it's still often seen as preferable to go into that kind of practical sphere, though obviously the jobs have changed. Again, this turns graduates into "the other", and the often-academic cultural policies which the left now seems to concentrate itself around don't speak to these people. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that, without Reform's propaganda making enemies of minorities, many Reform voters would take a relatively live-and-let-live approach to things like LGBT rights, although I do agree with you that I suspect a majority of them are simply socially conservative.

- where public sector jobs could disappear as a result of cuts, but also on ideological grounds,

See the NHS.

- where "intellectual" jobs could be threatened due to a combination of cuts and and apparent populist inverse snobbery,

See the trans argument.

- where school teachers are policed by the government to ensure they don't even let out a hint of a view that could be vaguely interpreted as slightly liberal,

I'm fairly sure this is not the case, and wouldn't be the case without Reform's endless education propaganda. I think this is another case of something which doesn't ordinarily matter to most Reform voters, but which the leadership have framed as a loss of their culture.

- where we lose our international reputation due to having a PM that the sensible world will laugh at (Farage as our representative? The UK will become an international joke),

I don't think many Reform voters care about geopolitics - they want to elect somebody who they believe will speak for and represent them specifically, as opposed to representing Britain on the global stage or anything like that. Although I do think that there is an inherent distrust of foreigners as an entity in much of Reform's grassroots, which I think partly stems from the same place as fear of multiculturalism, but also from what I would view as a slightly misguided form of patriotism, although doubtless others would view it differently.

- where the economy could crash due to decisions being made as a result of reactionary right-wing politics rather than pragmatism,

Again, I doubt most Reform voters have the economy at the forefront of their minds when deciding who do vote for. In general I would venture to suggest that most of them are left-wing economically and value the welfare state, but, given many of them come from industrial or post-industrial areas where hard work is valued very highly on a cultural level, are upset by what they see as benefits cheats getting "free money" without working. Of course, once again, the far-right propaganda machine spins it such that benefits cheats are hugely widespread and that the only alternative is an economic plan defined vaguely enough that their base doesn't see it for the undiluted Thatcherism that it is.

- where all attempts to build bridges with the EU are destroyed leaving us on our own and at the mercy of the world's very worst players,

I think that most areas that voted heavily for Brexit and now swing towards Reform did so partially to stick two fingers up to Westminster in the manner I mentioned earlier, and partially because they hoped that it would make the UK more self-sufficient and hence bring back in some way the jobs that they lost. Which is not realistic, but is sadly the closest thing there is to a coherent regeneration plan for many of these areas.

- where demonisation of "woke" views are normalised?

See above on education. (Sorry for repeatedly redirecting you back to things I've said; I just want to try and address all of your (very good) points without repeating myself too much, as I'm sounding enough like a vaguely nonsensical broken record as is!)

Because those are all my personal fears of what a Reform government could possibly be like, so if you're tolerating Reform, you are tolerating the risk of the above.

For some people, the visceral desire to be heard and to protest defeats whatever ideologies that protest represents. You and I both think that a needless folly, but our views are no more worthy of respect than theirs. And the fear and rage you and I both feel at the prospect of an unambiguous racist getting into Number 10 is best directed at him and his propaganda machine, and the genuinely far-right few; not the rank-and-file whose fears are preyed on by a man who is only going to neglect them just as nearly every other premier since Thatcher has done.

And are you now a minority for:

- wanting a well-funded public sector,
- wanting a middle-of-the-road approach to immigration,
- improving the NHS through better funding,
- valuing "intellectual" jobs,
- letting public sector workers get on with their job without political interference,
- leaving trans people and other minorities alone,
- wanting good relations with the EU,
- wanting to be taken seriously by the western world at large,
- and wanting continuing acceptance of "woke" views?

No, but I think what many leftists, myself included, have a tendency to do is to take people's agreement for granted and to be unable to believe that anybody could possibly be right-wing. I think that we just need to find a way, as leftists, of reframing our core beliefs in a way that doesn't take voters for granted and doesn't tell them they're fools.

And is "the left" the number one political enemy of most people, even though "the left" have had close-to-zero influence since 1979?

I think very few people have political enemies because very few people are as interested in politics as those of us who post regularly here.

Because if this is true, to be quite frank, what sort of place has the UK become? A country of people who are either hardline right-wingers or tolerate hardline right-wing views because they're seen as less bad than liberal or leftish views?

It's not the views, it's the rosette. It's just because Reform are pretending to be outside the tent and offering a complete new break. Similar to how the opposite argument could be made with regard to the Greens and young, educated, metropolitan voters.

To offer you an example, take Ashfield, the constituency in which I was brought up. Apart from a brief blip during the Callaghan years, it was solid Labour for a very long time. It was one of the few constituencies where the BNP saved their deposit in 2010 (but that works out as just under 4% of the electorate and doesn't mean that they're all racists now), and UKIP did reasonably well in 2015; so slightly more extreme than many Red Wall seats but nothing special.

They voted 70% in favour of Brexit, and the council has for several years been run by the Ashfield Independents, a local party run by an "interesting" individual called Jason Zadrozny who was booted out of the Liberal Democrats. The Independents finished second in 2019 and third in 2024 (though there were a fair few scandals in the interim).

Now politically, Ashfield Independents and Reform don't have that much in common. They may be both relatively disorganised parties run by not particularly likeable individuals, but they are both representative of a desire to stick two fingers up to "the system" and seek a sense of autonomy over themselves. And there are (or were) some genuinely good, honest, hard-working people in the Ashfield Independents, in spite of their leader. The same cannot be untrue of Reform or their voter base, given the broad terms of appeal they have locally. And I know it's anathema to you or I to vote or support based on such a simple metric, but it doesn't mean that these voters can be dismissed out of hand because they are not all bad people.

It's actually the possible consequences for jobs, services and the economy that worry me the most, bad though the social aspects are too.

I agree very much. For obvious reasons Reform don't want to publicise these details, so I guess left-wing parties have a decent opportunity to spread the word and treat Reform voters as intelligent adults to be engaged with rather than bigoted automatons to be condemned.

Sorry if this comes across as a bit of a rant, but the above are (for me personally) a couple of really disturbing posts and I've never been more concerned about the medium-term future of the UK than I am now.

Personally, I think you've read more into them than is actually there. Neither of those two posts expressly support Reform; they are simply pointing out that belittling Reform voters does them a massive disservice, and that those of us who opposed Reform are best places to respond with the kindness and understanding that we preach, rather than - as I know I'm tempted to do a lot - dismissing them as innately wrong and stupid simply for disagreeing with us. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that you think that way, @nw1 - and this post isn't targeted at you specifically, it just made sense to reply to your points to make mine. I think the left collectively and in general has the problem I've outlined. And if it doesn't solve it sharpish, then extremism - both far-left and far-right - will fester. Which is a far more disturbing prospect than a fifth of the country being cowed into supporting a party who will sell out their souls.

 

[nw1]

Personally, I think you've read more into them than is actually there. Neither of those two posts expressly support Reform; they are simply pointing out that belittling Reform voters does them a massive disservice, and that those of us who opposed Reform are best places to respond with the kindness and understanding that we preach, rather than - as I know I'm tempted to do a lot - dismissing them as innately wrong and stupid simply for disagreeing with us.

To make it absolutely clear I didn't think either post was supporting Reform, but instead, hinting that pro-Reform voices were perhaps more mainstream than anti-Reform ones. So to make it clear @WesternLancer @tutacre, I was in no way implying your posts were sympathetic to Reform, many apologies if it came across that way.

Thanks also for the rest of your post, some very interesting points made there. I'm just very worried about the future, and am fervently hoping the outcome of the next election will be something - anything to be honest - other than a Reform government.

 

[Purple Train]

I'm just very worried about the future, and am fervently hoping the outcome of the next election will be something - anything to be honest - other than a Reform government.

On that I can very firmly agree!

 

[WesternLancer]

To make it absolutely clear I didn't think either post was supporting Reform, but instead, hinting that pro-Reform voices were perhaps more mainstream than anti-Reform ones. So to make it clear @WesternLancer @tutacre, I was in no way implying your posts were sympathetic to Reform, many apologies if it came across that way.

Thanks also for the rest of your post, some very interesting points made there. I'm just very worried about the future, and am fervently hoping the outcome of the next election will be something - anything to be honest - other than a Reform government.

Thanks - but yes I got where you were coming from. No problems at all

 

[styles]

Odds have really shortened for Labour now: 2/9 for Labour and 4/1 for Reform UK

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/makerfield

Probably helped by some added publicity of Kenyon's, the Reform candidate's, past sexist comments, including their bringing up on BBC Question Time last night (I haven't watched this in years as I think it's quite a tired format, but did muster the interest to see how Burnham etc performed). Bizarrely, he even admitted, "I’m sexist, sorry but I am.", which is probably the only comment I can put in this post without breaking forum rules on content being family-friendly. Asked by the Green candidate to apologise to Carol Voderman for comments he made about her in the past, he refused. Couldn't even muster up a simple apology to move on from it all. I'm sure there are some anti-abortion folk in the BBCQT audience, but basically his past remarks would alienate over 50% of the voter base on this issue alone. There's only so much you can drag out, "But I'm a plumber, like a normal person, not a career politician."

Burnham on the other hand I think performed quite well, to much applause, even handling the elephant in the room which is that he's talking about Makerfield a lot but is really doing this to run for PM which will leave him focussed on the rest of the country in the main.

Wakefield for the Greens I thought did mostly great but she did come a little undone whe she tried to challenge Kenyon on the notion that the housing crisis was related to immigration. It undoubtedly is, but the real angle here was to challenge Kenyon's "fact" that 10 million extra immigrants over a short space of time is the real problem. They may be inwards migration, but to get to 10 million in net migration, you have to go back all the way to 1990 (which, to make us all feel old, is a whopping 36 years). Plenty of time to have been building housing to keep up with demand. Anyway, when Kenyon asked back to Wakefield if she thought immigration wasn't linked to housing, she couldn't answer and even suggested moving on to another candidate. She is fairly new to politics though, so suspect nerves got the better of her.

Winstanley for the Conservatives came across ok, but they're clearly not going to win the support of the audience in Makerfield even in a normal year, let alone after the nationwide collapse of Conservative support.

Austin for the Lib Dems was pretty good, but is also down with the Tories in the polls at a mere 1%.

Be interesting to see how Count Binface does.

 

[WesternLancer]

Be interesting to see how Count Binface does.

It'll be in the bag for the count

 

[AlterEgo]

Kenyon is basically a pub bore. That will still attract plenty of voters but a lot of the shtick just won't pass muster with soft Reformers.

His olfactory desires alone probably shortened the odds considerably.

 

[81A]

If Reform critics are "in the minority", if the sheer nastiness of Reform is being normalised and they do have a realistic chance of getting a majority, if it's the Reform critics who are the "odd" ones, then what sort of country has the UK become?

I think "sheer nastiness" is going a bit far to describe the whole party (though, of course, we are all entitled to our own opinion).
Most of their policies are sensible, and those saying ”vote Tory” forget that they failed to carry through many of their key policies last time they were in power (for more than a decade). So for many people they can be seen as “a version of the Tories that actually can get stuff done”. I think where they have really fallen short is candidate selection… They seem to have chosen some “interesting“ candidates (who are definitely approaching or reaching “sheer nastiness“ in some cases) who have had to resign causing embarrassment (the Greens have had this issue a bit too, probably a challenge for any new party, but you’d think they’d do a bit better).

Edit-to clean up and clarify.

 

[GraphitProjekt]

Especially because people saying "vote Tory" forget the fact that the Tories failed to carry out many of their key policies the last time they were in government

But at the same time, many of those same tories are now in Reform. There was a joke during the height of the defections that it'd be quicker for Farage to defect to the Tories.

 

[81A]

But at the same time, many of those same tories are now in Reform. There was a joke during the height of the defections that it'd be quicker for Farage to defect to the Tories.

Indeed, I don’t personally think Reform will necessarily be very different than the Tories were (I think Restore is probably more likely to actually be different) but was pointing out that there are reasons to vote/join Reform without sharing the same “interesting” views some of Reforms “characters” hold.

 

[Cowley]

Thread reopened for @81A to confound us with some statistics.

 

[81A]

With the election now tomorrow, I thought this overview of polls was interesting. To summarise, all the polls have Burnham winning, by varying margins and in some cases only due to the Tories and Restore splitting the Right vote (though the Lib Dems and Greens are splitting the Left vote as well). The polls favouring Burnham most have him at 49% while the one giving him the least has him at 35%. Again, always ahead of Reform but not always ahead of Reform+Restore…

I do wonder whether everyone saying they will vote Green/Lib Dem/Tory/Restore will actually vote that way, since things look close enough the result is not a forgone conclusion… And I can’t imagine most Green/Lib Dem voters would rather let Reform win than have Burnham, likewise I would think most Tory/Restore voters would rather have Reform than Labour…

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is the problem, I feel, with politics these days - its clear that Burnham is acting as a Career Politician, and the only reason that this by-election is happening is so that he can become PM. He's not standing to represent the people of Makersfield, lets be honest, who are just getting a raw deal*, he's just standing, probably in his mind save the sinking Labour ship.

*Admitting that this is probably not the only occasion, but never has it truly been this obvious.

It then comes down to what's the worst option, a MP who is only there for the PM seat, or a Reform... neither option is particularly great, to put it mildly.

Burnham actually lives in Golborne next door to Makerfield, and has been the MP for Leigh in the past.
I'm pretty sure he is very concerned about the residents of those areas, as well as of Greater Manchester as a whole.
Some MP has to be PM and take on national concerns; Mr Speaker also has non-constituency and non-party tasks.
Government ministers cannot give special treatment to their own constituencies, it's a conflict of interest.

 

[81A]

Burnham actually lives in Golborne next door to Makerfield, and has been the MP for Leigh in the past.
I'm pretty sure he is very concerned about the residents of those areas, as well as of Greater Manchester as a whole.
Some MP has to be PM and take on national concerns; Mr Speaker also has non-constituency and non-party tasks.
Government ministers cannot give special treatment to their own constituencies, it's a conflict of interest.

I do think some people in Makerfield/Greater Manchester are a bit annoyed as they view Burnham as using this by election as a springboard into number 10. In various interviews online etc. I think I recall some people saying they would vote Reform for this reason.

 

[Gloster]

Well, the result is out. Burnham took Makerfield with 24,927 votes on a 59% turnout. Reform got 15,696, Restore had 3,111 and the others all under a thousand votes.

A few initial thoughts. Firstly, not a bad turnout for a by-election. My feeling is that a lot of people voted for Burnham on a ‘Stop Reform’ basis: they may not particularly like or him, or they even actively dislike him, but they dislike Reform more. Whether this was just the individual candidate or whether people are beginning to wake up to what Reform stands for, we shall have to see. Also Restore proved to not be such a big threat as certain of the papers, for their own reasons, hinted, but it may still prove to be a significant nail in the side of Farage and his merry men: will they turn their efforts to fighting Restore?

Elsewhere, the Conservatives took Aberdeen South, their first by-election victory in Scotland for over fifty years. This is not that big a surprise as they have held the seat in recent years and the SNP has had a few recent embarrassments. The SNP held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, but here Labour, who were a close second, dropped to fourth.

 

[GusB]

Well, the result is out. Burnham took Makerfield with 24,927 votes on a 59% turnout. Reform got 15,696, Restore had 3,111 and the others all under a thousand votes.

Wow, that's a fairly hefty majority. I expected Burnham to win, but not by nearly as much as that. Disappointing result for Restore, though - I thought it'd do much better, although I'm quite glad it didn't.

A few initial thoughts. Firstly, not a bad turnout for a by-election. My feeling is that a lot of people voted for Burnham on a ‘Stop Reform’ basis: they may not particularly like or him, or they even actively dislike him, but they dislike Reform more. Whether this was just the individual candidate or whether people are beginning to wake up to what Reform stands for, we shall have to see. Also Restore proved to not be such a big threat as certain of the papers, for their own reasons, hinted, but it may still prove to be a significant nail in the side of Farage and his merry men: will they turn their efforts to fighting Restore?

I think it was the wrong choice of candidate. He may be a local plumber, but he's no Hannah Spencer. I think the misogynistic comments were a huge factor but, let's face it, he isn't the sharpest tool in the box. He'd be completely out of his depth at Westminster.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives took Aberdeen South, their first by-election victory in Scotland for over fifty years. This is not that big a surprise as they have held the seat in recent years and the SNP has had a few recent embarrassments. The SNP held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, but here Labour, who were a close second, dropped to fourth.

No great surprise to see Aberdeen South going blue again. I actually thought Reform would have done better than it did.

 

[The exile]

Wow, that's a fairly hefty majority. I expected Burnham to win, but not by nearly as much as that. Disappointing result for Restore, though - I thought it'd do much better, although I'm quite glad it didn't.

The results for 4th place and below to me indicate that there was a sizeable groundswell of “anything but Reform/Restore” at play here (and, tbh, anywhere where there is a pretty clear cut alternative).

 

[brad465]

An unfortunate timing for the Tories winning Aberdeen South, as all the media will now be keenly awaiting Burnham's next move.

 

[The exile]

An unfortunate timing for the Tories winning Aberdeen South, as all the media will now be keenly awaiting Burnham's next move.

The P & J probably less so, but its coverage (even in Scotland) is somewhat limited.

 

[81A]

Better results for Burnham than even the polls that most favoured him suggested. Reform let themselves down a bit with their candidate selection though (some of Kenyon's posts are definitely "interesting" in a negative way)...

 

[Rab Smith]

So, what did we take from those results?

Makerfield- was expected but not as much of a majority than it was. It reflects people's desperate need for change at the head of Labour. I think Reforms candidate did himself no favours. He sounded as thick as porridge anytime I heard him speak. Anyone thinking Burnham will go striding into Westminster with a leadership challenge straight off isn't seeing things right. Burnham will get a cabinet job to keep him simmering for a while.

Aberdeen South- A return to the Tories. Hardly surprised with that result. Stephen Flynn was actually a good MP but they are a weird bunch of voters up there.....

Broughty Ferry- Again, no surprise with that result.

The one thing I will say gladly though is Reform were trounced in all three. Expected in Scotland but it was more headline making down South. So glad Rob the misogynistic plumber can go back to his day job and we will hopefully never hear from him again.