HS2 could cost up to £102.7bn and trains won't start until at least 2036

[Dave61]

Start with the senior management of HS2 the previous CEO was on over 600k pa and he got bonuses most years on top. The senior leads were on 300k+ and there were dozens of them as well. They were then supported by a vast army of consultants from the great and good on huge retainers yet with all that brain power the project got into a mess. And not be outdone DfT own army of expensive consultants providing oversight failed to identify things were falling apart.

Shame we cant resurrect Stephenson and Brunel from the grave to see how they achieved equivalent line lengths in so short a time with horse and men with spades.

I think in the days of Stephenson and Brunel, the NIMBY's were simply ignored and told to go do one.

The Victorian railways, especially around London, involved a lot of property demolition.

Sadly today the NIMBY's seem to have to much influence, hence roughly one third of the Journey between Brum and London will be in tunnels. My estimate my be a bit off but there was a new report that the "view" from HS2 will be mostly tunnels and deep cuttings due to the NIMBY's - and that all costs.

I hope they are happy.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think in the days of Stephenson and Brunel the NIMBY's were simply ignored and told to go do one. The Victorian railways especially around London involved a lot of property demolition.
Sadlly today the NIMBY's seem to have to much influence, hence is it one third of the Journey between Brum and London will be in tunnels? My estimate my be a bit off but there was a new report that the "view" from HS2 will be mostly tunnels and deep cuttings due to the NIMBY's - and that all costs. I Hope they are happy.

Thats not unusual for HS railways across Europe. Thing is the nimbys had there say a decade ago and demands were acceded to and that caused a step change in costs at the time. So it was all known about and the schedule reflected that yet but execution has been diabolical and its not as if we didnt have experience from HS1 to draw upon. None of the reviews/reports Ive read have really never properly dealt with what HS2 did so badly wrong compared to HS1 and just blame it all on the politicians.

 

[JonathanH]

Sadlly today the NIMBY's seem to have to much influence, hence is it one third of the Journey between Brum and London will be in tunnels? My estimate my be a bit off but there was a new report that the "view" from HS2 will be mostly tunnels and deep cuttings due to the NIMBY's - and that all costs. I Hope they are happy.

Even in today's parliamentary exchanges, there was quite a lot of concern raised about noise levels, blight, restoration of land and ongoing disruption. Quite a challenge if there are going to be places where a halt comes to construction in some places for the next few years.

 

[Dave61]

Thats not unusual for HS railways across Europe. Thing is the nimbys had there say a decade ago and demands were acceded to and that caused a step change in costs at the time. So it was all known about and the schedule reflected that yet but execution has been diabolical and its not as if we didnt have experience from HS1 to draw upon. None of the reviews/reports Ive read have really never properly dealt with what HS2 did so badly wrong compared to HS1 and just blame it all on the politicians.

What went wrong has mostly been reported I think: Badly managed, a forever changing scope based on the whims of the Politicians, starting building (get spades in the ground) before finalising the design/route , NIMBY's causing yet more design changes and over specified for speed when it was really all about capacity - its a classic British Government procurement mess.

I wonder if those costs include the aborted East and West 2nd stage legs? I would have been on the East leg and the street at the bottom of my garden had many properties purchased by HS2 before they abandoned it.

I also wonder how much a "standard" railway (say 150mph) would have cost to build that could have been non-stop Euston-Birmingham (New Street?), Obviously it would have ignored the west coast route but it would not have needed the huge sweeping curves etc.

 

[Mainliner]

Ah well, I’m unlikely ever to be able to use HS2, so meanwhile I’ll be thankful for small mercies, and enjoy using the Northumberland line, local to me

 

[LickeyIncliner]

Genuinely, why are we continuing with this? Sunk cost fallacy and all that.

With respect, it's not an example of the sunk cost fallacy. The choice is to complete the (much reduced) scheme, or to abandon it. Completion will cost a lot of money, but abandonment would apparently cost almost as much - which I understand is largely because the government would be under a mass of legal obligations to return all the property it acquired to its original condition. So the sunk cost is quite correctly not being considered - the choice is between spending a lot of money and getting a new (if limited) railway, or spending almost as much money and not having any new railway at all.

Edit: apologies and thanks to @gravitystorm , I missed his/her post #45 which gives more details (with links to sources) regarding the cost of cancellation.
Link to that post : https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...start-until-at-least-2036.302340/post-7790566

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

What went wrong has mostly been reported I think: Badly managed, a forever changing scope based on the whims of the Politicians, starting building (get spades in the ground) before finalising the design/route , NIMBY's causing yet more design changes and over specified for speed when it was really all about capacity - its a classic British Government procurement mess.

Yup but thats in the early days and thats what caused the first spike up in costs but whats happened since construction started that concerns me. This is straightforward civils. What i mean by that is its not novel its not easily for sure its heavily constrained in some areas like Birmingham approaches but it nothing that hasn't been managed before eg HS1 yet we are now four years behind schedule

I wonder if those costs include the aborted East and West 2nd stage legs? I would have been on the East leg and the street at the bottom of my garden had many properties purchased by HS2 before they abondoned it.

Alexander referred earlier in her speech how much had been wasted on these legs so I would imagine it is included

I also wonder how much a "standard" railway (say 150mph) would have cost to build that could have been non-stop Euston-Birmingham (New Street?), Obviously it would have ignored the west coast route but it would not have needed the huge sweeping curves etc.

Having some more flexibility on curvature may have given options on design but the nimby's would have still had there way and project execution would have loused up the same.

Whats done is done and really would like to ask Wilde if annual budget was unconstrained what could be achieved.

 

[Krokodil]

If the new HS2 trains don't tilt, they will be slower on the existing track so I am not sure overall journey time will improve (and could actually get worse).

The time difference between a 390 and an 805 running non-stop from Stafford to Euston is all of four minutes.

The time difference between a 390 and an 807 calling at one station between Crewe and Euston is three minutes.

The time difference between a 390 and a 397 calling at all stops from Preston to Carlisle is five minutes (bearing in mind that this section of route hasn't had the work done by NR to improve non-EPS speeds on the WCML South).

So any losses in top speed between Handsacre Junction and Glasgow/Edinburgh would (after a little bit of work by NR) add around 5 minutes to the timings which is much smaller than the circa 30 minute time saving expected between Euston and Handsacre. Timings certainly won't be getting worse.

Also will Scotland benefit or lose out with train capacity? I believe the current 11 or 9 coach Avanti express out of Glasgow Central will now be reduced to the HS2 8-coach config?

A refurbished 11 car 390 has 607 seats. 895s are specified with 504 seats each. Yes, that's lower.

This is why getting the platforms at Crewe, Preston and Carlisle extended to accommodate double sets should be a priority for the commencement of the initial service.

The latter two allow the portion working with Edinburgh to start. Extending Crewe allows the Liverpool/Lancaster portion working to start which keeps Warrington/Wigan/Lancaster/Oxenholme/Penrith passengers out of the way of Preston and Glasgow passengers.

If the southbound Glasgow/Edinburgh express trains have to connect with each other after Carstairs, does that double the risk of delay if one or other portion is delayed?

Swings and roundabouts, the move to dedicated infrastructure reduces the chances of Anglo-Scottish services being severely delayed by the regular chaos on the WCML South.

I think in the days of Stephenson and Brunel the NIMBY's were simply ignored and told to go do one. The Victorian railways especially around London involved a lot of property demolition.

It depended upon how rich you were. As you say, the inner-city slums were just cleared but the landed gentry were less easy to shift and often demanded that lines be rerouted around their property, or that a private station be provided for their convenience.

 

[david1212]

HS2 could cost up to £102.7bn and trains won't start until at least 2036

Also Euston services won't start until 2040, or potentially 2043!

HS2: Railway could cost up to £102.7bn and may not open until 2039, transport secretary says

Heidi Alexander told the Commons the railway, estimated in 2011 to cost £32bn, had become "a symbol of this country's decline".

www.bbc.co.uk

Extract

In 2011, the cost of HS2 was estimated at £32bn (around £49bn in today's prices), including the now-cancelled Leeds and Manchester legs

Taking that £49bn should be buying all the infrastructure (trains too?) it is a total disgrace that just part could cost over £100bn.

Being realistic while London Euston - Old Oak Common - Birmingham Interchange + Birmingham Interchange - Birmingham Curzon Street have more tunnelling, viaducts etc than Birmingham Interchange - Manchester and Birmingham Interchange - Leeds would have done and allowing for the high inflation of construction raw materials what we are getting including Euston station ought at current prices to be less than £50bn.

 

[Peter0124]

If only that money and time could've been spent into upgrading the WCML instead, including the full route to Scotland. Not some standalone London - Birmingham.

 

[Roy Badami]

Scotland has had Barnett consequentials. Wales is in dispute about the fact it hasn't.

I think that's overstating it a bit. There's certainly been some political grandstanding over the situation, based on either a misunderstanding or a deliberate misrepresention of its status as an "England and Wales" rail project.

The fact is that (AIUI) rail infrastructure is not a devolved matter in Wales so Wales was never going to get Barnett consequentials for rail expenditure (unlike Scotland, where it is). It's an "England and Wales" project simply because English and Welsh rail infrastructure comes out of the same pot of money, administered by Westminster. There can be no notion of English projects or Welsh projects because the matter is not devolved.

 

[deltic]

Just to weigh in on the consultant bashing.

A consultant will deliver what they’re told to. If what they’ve been asked to do is wrong or stupid, even if they tell the customer it will go wrong if they do that, they’ll be told to shut up and deliver what they’re told.

Having been one of the consultants, who actually saved HS2 money, the problem was in many cases it was consultants telling other consultants what to deliver.

 

[thomalex]

I think in the days of Stephenson and Brunel the NIMBY's were simply ignored and told to go do one. The Victorian railways especially around London involved a lot of property demolition.
Sadlly today the NIMBY's seem to have to much influence, hence is it one third of the Journey between Brum and London will be in tunnels? My estimate my be a bit off but there was a new report that the "view" from HS2 will be mostly tunnels and deep cuttings due to the NIMBY's - and that all costs. I Hope they are happy.

NIMBYs have always existed. The difference is the creep of quangos and legal powers over recent decades which has ended up crippling the ability to do anything. The hundreds of millions spent on no Stonehenge road tunnel and the billion spent on a still yet to be built Lower Thames Crossing are also a case in point.

There needs to be a concerted effort to roll back some of this and get to a situation where projects are again deliverable.

 

[BrianW]

The minimum required to test HS2 has been declared as running from the Washwood Heath depot in Birmingham, for around 50 miles south (to the north portal of Wendover Green Tunnel).

The minimum required to take fare-paying passengers has been decided as Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street. There's only one station in between (Birmingham International HS2) and there's no connections to any other railway in that first stage which could be used as an intermediate step. So unlike the motorway example you gave, they can't run any smaller chunk than that. Well, maybe Curzon - International or OOC - International, but neither of those are worthwhile.

It might seem like the current "minimum viable product" is most of HS2, but it's only "most of the remaining" bit of HS2. This section is roughly about 1/3 of what HS2 was, it's just that almost all the rest has been removed. So it's not unreasonable that it can't be chopped up into further sub-phases.

Indeed. Farepayers are needed earliest. Trains Old Oak to Curzon Street- how many 'diagrams', staff etc to bring in income. Then a link to somewhere on the WCML and trains running from Old Oak to Manchester using HS2 then WCML.

The M1 facilitated traffic diverting from the 'old' network A5, A6, A34, A45 etc for at least part of the journey until further extensions- into London, Birmingham, M6, MI to Leeds etc etc. Incremental. Similar for HS2?

 

[JonathanH]

There needs to be a concerted effort to roll back some of this and get to a situation where projects are again deliverable.

It would seem a fair assessment that no project on the scale of HS2 will ever be attempted in the UK again.

Smaller scale projects have been seen to be deliverable, and there are plenty of those which can be scoped and delivered without having to do larger ones.

 

[gg1]

I think in the days of Stephenson and Brunel the NIMBY's were simply ignored and told to go do one. The Victorian railways especially around London involved a lot of property demolition.
Sadlly today the NIMBY's seem to have to much influence, hence is it one third of the Journey between Brum and London will be in tunnels? My estimate my be a bit off but there was a new report that the "view" from HS2 will be mostly tunnels and deep cuttings due to the NIMBY's - and that all costs. I Hope they are happy.

There definitely were NIMBYs then, and the few who were wealthy and powerful enough did disrupt the plans of railway builders, ironically an early example involved the original Curzon Street. The Grand Junction Railway originally planned to approach Curzon Street from the north west but that plan was blocked by the owner of Aston Hall and the adjoining Aston Park, the end result was a circuitous loop around the northern edge of the park, roughly corresponding to the area between the current Perry Barr and Aston stations.

 

[Floul1]

Quite - where do they think those trains would have gone once they reached the southern end of the new line?

Most of the comments I've seen have been more from a political perspective than a technical one. It would have been much more difficult to chop Phase 2/2a/2b if construction had already started, essentially it would have forced the government of the day to commit to building it in full, or they'd be left with an even bigger white elephant than what Phase 1 has turned into

 

[Tezza1978]

The hundreds of millions spent on no Stonehenge road tunnel and the billion spent on a still yet to be built Lower Thames Crossing are also a case in point.

While the overspend on these 2 is of a smaller magnitude it is glossed over by sections of the "I love cars, I hate public transport " portion of the press.....

The amount of drivel I have read saying "we should have built another major North to South motorway" or that " we should close the West Coast Mainline and turn it into a bus route" Devoid of any sense, intelligence or costings.

 

[Bradford1]

The slower speed thing with over £100bn just adds to the view that the Labour Party are contributing to the UK’s decline. Even the Tories didn't opt for this.

If it kept in under £100bn, then ok, but who will notice the difference between £103bn and £101bn. Don't see the benefit to Labour of doing this.

 

[Krokodil]

If only that money and time could've been spent into upgrading the WCML instead,

You would have achieved even less.

including the full route to Scotland. Not some standalone London - Birmingham.

HS2 isn't a standalone project. It joins the WCML at Handsacre Junction and trains continue to Manchester and Scotland from there, saving 30 minutes in journey time and avoiding the congested and unreliable southern WCML.

 

[HighlandStorm]

You would have achieved even less.


HS2 isn't a standalone project. It joins the WCML at Handsacre Junction and trains continue to Manchester and Scotland from there, saving 30 minutes in journey time and avoiding the congested and unreliable southern WCML.

Except Handsacre Junction has been kicked even further back and it looks like Scotland might very well end up with HS2 trains running with less capacity, less onboard facilities (fitted out more like the Elizabeth Line train than a long distance train on the basis of running a Old Oak Common to Curzon Street shuttle with 50min journey times), running entirely on the WCML, thus without the EPS tilt speeds, giving SLOWER than current journey times.

Google suggests a minimum of 12m slower, so instead of the fastest times approaching 3 hours that was dangled when HS2 was first talked about, fastest journey times will be sliding backwards closer to 5 hours.

 

[E27007]

In short, yes. Mark Wild has written a three-page letter on this if you want to know more: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-cancellation-cost-advice . As I wrote in the HS2 reset thread:

"overall cancellation and remediation cost estimate from £33bn to as high as £58bn (2025 prices)." This is assuming a "Realistic Remediation Scenario”, one where a law is passed allowing HS2 to leave various structures in situ. Without such legislation, "the current legal position is that land should be fully remediated, which would include demolishing all built assets, and returning land to the same condition as prior to construction". This was seen as being unrealistic given the cost to demolish all the viaducts and fill in all the tunnels, so no estimate was made for that scenario.

The Financial times of Tuesday 19th May reported on HS2.
A summary:
2026 Ministers ordered HS2 management to review abandoning the scheme.
The findings of the review were cost of cancellation of London to Birmingham line would be equal to or greater than carrying on.
£40 bn of taxpayers money has been sunk into the scheme.
The legal position of scrapping HS2 would be full remediation of the scheme including demolition of viaducts and filling in of tunnels.
Cost of remediation of certain assets would be greater than their construction costs.

Cancellation Cost Advice M Wild

The FT reports, the last official estimate for the project was £80bn in 2024 prices, the latest estimates to be presented to parliament are of £90bn to £100bn.
Reducing the linespeed of HS2 from 360 km/hr to 320 km/hr would shave a couple of £billion off the final cost.
Uncertainty remains as to the final cost, not least the uncertainties of redeveloping Euston Station.

Review HS2, May 19th 2026

 

[mike57]

Uncertainty remains as to the final cost, not least the uncertainties of redeveloping Euston Station

Even if the remaining OOC - Birmingham bit limps on unless they actually get on and make real progress on Euston I think an incoming government will cancel 'pause' it. We are at most 3 years away from a likely change in government, and probably looking at some major changes within the existing government before the end of the year. If the new incumbent of No 10 is more 'northern' focussed I cant see them writing a blank cheque for Euston HS2 either.

 

[JamieL]

Even if the remaining OOC - Birmingham bit limps on unless they actually get on and make real progress on Euston I think an incoming government will cancel 'pause' it. We are at most 3 years away from a likely change in government, and probably looking at some major changes within the existing government before the end of the year. If the new incumbent of No 10 is more 'northern' focussed I cant see them writing a blank cheque for Euston HS2 either.

Regardless of Government, Euston HS2 is 100 times more likely to be funded to completion than any major rail project in the North. Like it or not, London is where the money and influence is and the Tufton Street crowd are not going to trek to OOC to catch a train.

 

[Falcon1200]

I wonder if those costs include the aborted East and West 2nd stage legs? I would have been on the East leg and the street at the bottom of my garden had many properties purchased by HS2 before they abondoned it.

All that property should have been retained by HS2 for the time it would eventually be needed for the new railway! And leased out if suitable to provide some revenue in the meantime.

If only that money and time could've been spent into upgrading the WCML instead, including the full route to Scotland.

We spent huge sums of money over a number of years on the WCML, causing massive disruption, and still only have a 125mph railway.

 

[Swedenorer]

If the new incumbent of No 10 is more 'northern' focussed I cant see them writing a blank cheque for Euston HS2 either.

It's a very big if on which I would not bet 2/6 - and anyway whoever it is will run straight into the challenging realpolitik that's been with this scheme since the start. Personally I've always been ambivalent but outside the pro-rail constituency I've never sensed much support - any of that likewarm - but a lot of scepticism. Posts above have criticised the emphasis on political considerations but in reality that's all it's ever been about

 

[JonathanH]

The legal position of scrapping HS2 would be full remediation of the scheme including demolition of viaducts and filling in of tunnels.

I assume that it was felt that there wasn't a majority within parliament for a change to the law to remove the remediation requirement, despite Labour's majority. Clearly there is a lot of abandoned infrastructure around the country from historically closed railways, and indeed in some cases bits of railway that never opened, that hasn't needed to be remediated.

I wonder if a hypothetical Reform government would have a majority within its MPs for a change to the law to allow abandonment without remediation in 2029, as has been the stated ambition of their leadership.

Regardless of Government, Euston HS2 is 100 times more likely to be funded to completion than any major rail project in the North.

Is there still a desire for Euston to be privately funded?

 

[OverSpeed]

I get it that some people having been dragging their heels saying they don't want hs2 being built in their back yards which I dare say has added to the build time but I think it's An embarrassment to modern day engineering that this project is taking so long to do from Inception to completion!

And I do wonder where exactly is the money going and what it's being used on?

 

[matthenj]

A bit of perspective is needed.

We spent £110 Billion on debt interest last year. That’s £110 Billion of dead money. Gone, nothing gained, no assets acquired, no improvement to living standards. The capital borrowed also provided very little in terms of investment: it bailed out banks, and payed for a pandemic.

£100 billion for an asset that will last a hundred years, considering the money should largely be staying in our economy, and acknowledging the massive devaluation of Sterling, is not horrific.

The original estimate was clearly never going to happen - it was probably 50% lower than realistic, and since then we've had a pandemic, which very much nuked the supply chains.

The fact is, by the time stage 1 is done, we should have the experience and people who know how to make these projects a success: it is folly to bin that experience, and not continue with the railway, as per the original plan.

 

[styles]

So the Channel Tunnel, which must surely be far more complicated, took 7 years... Why is this taking so long?

In fairness, you don't need much planning permission to build in the Strait of Dover. Unlike through the Chalfont St Peter where every other resident will have an objection to raise about your above-ground railway line.

HS2 has been a disaster.

I actually resigned myself a few years ago to the idea that I won't see a meaningful rollout of HS2 in my lifetime. It's been delayed time and time again, the route cut short, possibly not even terminating at an existing central London terminal any time soon, and not even getting past the Midlands at this point, speeds reduced, the lot.

The project should continue, not because of a sunk cost fallacy, but because the capacity is genuinely needed still. It's just a shame it's going to be such a half-arsed implementation at a ridiculous cost.