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The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

Nicholas Lewis

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The soundbites from Angela Rayner this afternoon seem to be based on raising living standards for 'working people'. How is this going to be done?

Aside from the idea of introducing a wealth tax, what avenues exist to shift the tax burden away from the working class to those who are better off? Also, not upsetting those in the Labour Party who don't want to see welfare cuts?



Is there a way in which cooperative ownership could deliver a more competitive outcome for workers against bigger business and the march of offshoring and automation?
There are some very rich people in this world that you cant really get at and even if you could it the money you realise wouldn't be anywhere near enough. Reality is every govt for nigh over a 100yrs has over promised what it can deliver and its been done on tick. The credit card is now maxed out and we need a grown up conversation about whats possible or in truth not possible. There maybe more acceptance than you think if its at least seen fair and thats the real issue now is the disparity between the haves and have nots. Rayner speaks for the have nots but oversimplifies that its easy to fix.
 
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Bevan Price

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It would be a bad idea for a potential vacancy to be created for Andy Burnham - he would probably lose. If he wishes to return as an MP, the best option is to wait for the next general election, when hopefully Labour will be less unpopular. Some of you may remember Harold Wilson's mistake in 1964. A vacancy was created at Nuneaton - a safe Labour seat, to try and get TU leader Frank Cousins into Parliament - and he lost the by-election.

The current leader gets the blame for Labour mistakes - while he doubtless believes he remains the best leader & PM, it will be hard to convince the electorate, and the nest hope of winning the next election might require a change of leader. The onlly problem is who ? Probably not the Chancellor (too closely associated with unpopular policies). Rather than some of the "popular" suggestions, my thoughts would gp towards some of the ministers in less prominent posts, maybe someone like Stephen Kinnock or Hilary Benn ??
 
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Yew

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The current suggestion that has been conveniently leaked to the BBC is that Starmer is going to be "Bolder"

Sir Keir Starmer is to promise bolder action to tackle "big challenges" facing the country, as he battles to persuade his MPs not to ditch him as Labour leader.

What do we think he is likely to do to be considered as bold? A real attack at the root cause of our nations problems, or chasing Farrage rightwards?
 

The Ham

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The current suggestion that has been conveniently leaked to the BBC is that Starmer is going to be "Bolder"



What do we think he is likely to do to be considered as bold? A real attack at the root cause of our nations problems, or chasing Farrage rightwards?

Hopefully, the former, the fact that (whilst Reform got a lot of seats, often at the expense of Tories and Labour) the right didn't dominate the outcome as the Lib Dems and Greens also saw gains.

It depends on where in the country you look as to how Labour did.

Much of Southern England they rarely do well outside of urban areas, and where they did badly in the urban areas, it was often against the Green and Lib Dems.

If they can do something to help with the cost of living that could help. Maybe a monthly tax free threshold rise (i.e. for the duration of the Iran conflict) of £60 until the implications of the conflict are reduced. That would give many tax payers an extra £12 a month, which would help.

Although, because it's got a time limit to it, it's also not going to spook the markets.

If it had a minimum term of 6 months and reviewed every 2 with a 3 month notice period of it ending, it would give people stability that it wasn't going to be only a month or two and time to adjust once it is due to end.

Another could be grants for (say) plug in solar for homeowners in smaller properties (especially those with poor EPC ratings) which could help with their energy bills. Again something which could help a lot of people but easy enough to remove.

Taking a leaf out of the Tories "the right to buy" they could call it "the right to power", and focus on how this is putting money back into the hard working people of Britain and not into the profits of BP.

A closer move towards the EU and other allies (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, etc.) could be a bold move. It could set him very much against Reform, but under Brexit the right wanted a deal with the US (that's not as clear cut as it was, with all the talk of tariffs and the poor state of politics in the US) so not sure how the right are likely to argue for something other than closer EU ties.

Also, such a move isn't likely to shift more people towards voting for the right, as most are already there anyway. It also puts the right on the back foot as they have to explain what they would do differently.

Creating a scheme which looks fair but tough to give a reasonable way for people to claim asylum. For example, having safe heavens in key other countries where basic shelter is provided and their case heard.

If it was done at an EU level, the cost could be limited, but with states able to offer "free access" if the individual was of need to that country (such as being a doctor, or engineer).

The key thing is that getting here illegally becomes less attractive (why risk a boat crossing when you'll end up not in the UK whilst you're claim is decided and it may actually reduce your chance of ending up in the UK?).

Limits (or quotas) can be set and details of previous claims to EU countries shared.

That again gives the right something that they have to argue against. As the the defence of the policy is, "we've already set the limit lower than the current asylum approval rate, but can reduce it further if that's needed."

Likewise, it removes asylum hotels from being a target and a point around which people can gather (either mob like or figuratively) and so as the point of conflict isn't near them it reduces the cohesion of those opposed to asylum.
 

SargeNpton

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The soundbites from Angela Rayner this afternoon seem to be based on raising living standards for 'working people'. How is this going to be done?

Aside from the idea of introducing a wealth tax, what avenues exist to shift the tax burden away from the working class to those who are better off? Also, not upsetting those in the Labour Party who don't want to see welfare cuts?



Is there a way in which cooperative ownership could deliver a more competitive outcome for workers against bigger business and the march of offshoring and automation?
Tony Benn set up three (I think) workers co-operatives in the 1970s. All with the best intentions, but all were inadequately funded from the outset.

The best known of them was the Triumph motorcycle factory at Meriden. It's trials and tribulations are documented in the book Save The Triumph Bonneville, by John Rosamond (the co-ops chairman). It went bust in 1983.

Though we are forty years down the line, many of the things that hampered the Triumph co-op would still apply today.
 

MP33

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After a General Election. A Labour former MP was parachuted in at a By Election in London. It resulted in the seat turning Conservative, for the first and only time in its history.
 
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Those calling for another Prime Minister on the basis that Kier Starmer has achieved 'nothing' in the last two years (a) forget the lessons of (very recent!) history where the Conservative's constantly revolving door actively harmed this country and (b) fail to understand that the Parliamentary term being 5 years is for a reason - it takes time to accomplish real change! The 5 year term is designed to allow that time.
 

Western Lord

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It would be a bad idea for a potential vacancy to be created for Andy Burnham - he would probably lose. If he wishes to return as an MP, the best option is to wait for the next general election, when hopefully Labour will be less unpopular. Some of you may remember Harold Wilson's mistake in 1964. A vacancy was created at Nuneaton - a safe Labour seat, to try and get TU leader Frank Cousins into Parliament - and he lost the by-election.

The current leader gets the blame for Labour mistakes - while he doubtless believes he remains the best leader & PM, it will be hard to convince the electorate, and the nest hope of winning the next election might require a change of leader. The onlly problem is who ? Probably not the Chancellor (too closely associated with unpopular policies). Rather than some of the "popular" suggestions, my thoughts would gp towards some of the ministers in less prominent posts, maybe someone like Stephen Kinnock or Hilary Benn ??
In fact Frank Cousins won the Nuneaton By-election. Maybe you are thinking of Patrick Gordon Walker, Wilson's Shadow Foreign Secretary, who lost his seat at Smethwick in the 1964 General Election. Wilson nevertheless appointed him Foreign Secretary and he was parachuted into the safe Labour seat of Leyton for a by-election in January 1965. He lost and Wilson had to replace him as Foreign Secretary. He subsequently won the Leyton seat at the 1966 General Election.
 

Bishops

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Taking a leaf out of the Tories "the right to buy" they could call it "the right to power", and focus on how this is putting money back into the hard working people of Britain and not into the profits of BP.
They could go one better and untie our energy prices from the price of Gas as this would reduce the household bill by quite a bit
 

jupiter

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Unfortunately Kier has elevated himself to the ranks of, nice guy but un-electable.

Sadly while we might see fag-ash Nige as the slimy, odious creep he is, prepared to sell himself to the highest bidder (and sell the NHS incidentally), there's a significant proportion of people who don't see that or couldn't care less for some reason.

I'm afraid it looks like Kier vs fag-ash has only one winner, so it's time for Kier to go.
 

The Ham

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They could go one better and untie our energy prices from the price of Gas as this would reduce the household bill by quite a bit

Already have made an attempt to do this:


Therefore, to shield families from future crises, today the government is setting out new measures to ‘break the link’, reducing the impact that volatile gas prices have on the price of electricity. This will be done by:

Voluntary long term fixed contracts: offered to existing low-carbon generators not on fixed‑price contracts – covering around a third of Britain’s power supply. This will help protect families and businesses from higher bills when gas prices spike, with contracts offered only where they deliver clear value for money for consumers
An updated Electricity Generators Levy: immediate action to tax excess profits through the Electricity Generator Levy by raising the rate from 45% to 55%, ensuring an increased proportion of the extraordinary revenues generated when the gas price spikes is available to government to support businesses and households with the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East on the cost of living

Measures announced today will further reduce the share of electricity exposed to gas price shocks and provide generators the economic incentive to move on to fixed contracts not linked to volatile gas. The government is monitoring the impact of the current crisis on energy bills and will be ready to step in to provide targeted support where necessary.

Britain has already moved from gas setting the price of electricity around 90% of the time in the early 2020s, to around 60% today. Through the government’s clean energy mission, it is estimated gas will set the wholesale price around half of the time by 2030.
 

martin butler

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If there is to be a change of leadership. and direction, new cabinet etc, then it needs to happen sooner, than later, to allow any new measures to filter through, and for some sign of stability, change too late only adds to the confusion.

IMHO. Labour has to stop trying to wow the reform voter, give them up as being lost, and instead concentrate on the things that matter, such as a fair but robust immigration scheme, with the ability for people to be pre-screened in France, or Belgium, that will cut much of the trade of the people smugglers, especially if entry was only allowed if pre-screened,

implement leverson in full, uncontrolled social media possess a bigger threat than anything Russia, or China might do, trust with the public has to be reestablished, and that will mean total transparency.
 

styles

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And just like that, Catherine West MP has backed down on her leadership challenge.

I hadn't even heard of her until this, so quite how she thought this was going to go I've no idea.
 

JamesT

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And just like that, Catherine West MP has backed down on her leadership challenge.

I hadn't even heard of her until this, so quite how she thought this was going to go I've no idea.
I believe the expectation was that once a leadership election process started, it would bring out some of the more notable names in the party. There's even a semi-conspiracy theory that as the first leadership challenger almost never wins the subsequent election, she was working on behalf of someone else who really wants the job but needs a sacrificial lamb to kick things off.
 

Sorcerer

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IMHO. Labour has to stop trying to wow the reform voter, give them up as being lost
If there is anything my recent playthroughs of Fantasy Parliament has taught me, it's that some voters will never vote Labour no matter what they do even if they give them the world.

Even when I managed to get GDP growth of 7.1%, wage growth at 5.2%, inflation at 3.7%, crime index of 10, NHS waiting list of 5 weeks, and net migration of 35k (lower than 1992), all in a single Parliament no less, this old pensioner still couldn't stop complaining about the small boats and immigration!

But when I started a new career under a fascist Reform government he loved it when I prorogued Parliament and declared martial law, and he was also very supportive of my career-ending invasion of France. I don't use the term "lost cause" very often, but if the boot fits like Cinderella's glass slippers. :lol:
 
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I believe the expectation was that once a leadership election process started, it would bring out some of the more notable names in the party. There's even a semi-conspiracy theory that as the first leadership challenger almost never wins the subsequent election, she was working on behalf of someone else who really wants the job but needs a sacrificial lamb to kick things off.

One problem for many of those Labour MPs who want to change the Prime Minister is they really want Andy Burnham to be the Prime Minister but this will only be possible if and when Andy Burnham is elected to the House of Commons. They therefore want to wait for Andy Burnham to be elected to the House of Commons and they do not want a Labour Party leadership election until this happens. They do not want anyone else to take over from Sir Keir Starmer as the Labour Party Leader and Prime Minister, especially some of the alternative prospects.

The other problem is that it is clear there would be a very adverse reaction on the financial markets to any prospect of a change of Prime Minister and even more so a change of Chancellor.
 

greatkingrat

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72 Labour MPs have now publically called on Starmer to go, don't think he can survive this. If Starmer refuses to announce a timescale to go, I expect ministerial resignations later this week.
Nearly 100 Labour MPs including Wes Streeting are pushing for Sir Keir Starmer to resign after devastating defeats at the May 7 elections.
Health Secretary Mr Streeting rocked Westminster on Thursday by quitting and launching scathing criticism of Sir Keir’s premiership.

His move brought the number of Labour MPs pressurising the Prime Minister to resign or set out a timetable for his departure to 97.
 
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thenorthern

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He has said he will nationalise British Steel subject to a public interest test. It's an odd choice to nationalise give I don't think it was high up on the list of priorities for the public in regards nationalisation.

British Steel nationalisation plans announced by Starmer​


British Steel is set to be brought into public ownership, the prime minister has announced.
Sir Keir Starmer said legislation would be brought forward this week to give the government powers to take "full ownership of British Steel", subject to a public interest test.
The move comes after the government seized control of British Steel's Scunthorpe steelworks from its Chinese owners Jingye in April last year in order to halt the potential closure of its blast furnaces.
Sir Keir said the government had held talks with Jingye, but that a "commercial sale has not been possible, and now a public test could be met".
"Public ownership is in the public interest", the prime minister said in a speech aiming to see off a leadership challenge following Labour's poor election results.


If the Railways are anything to go by then I am not sure it will help him. Public awareness of railway nationalisation seems to be low.
 
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dosxuk

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72 Labour MPs have now publically called on Starmer to go, don't think he can survive this. If Starmer refuses to announce a timescale to go, I expect ministerial resignations later this week.
If there was a suitable candidate waiting in the wings to replace him, that may be so. But there isn't, and there's little consensus in the wider party about whether they should move further right to reclaim the Reform vote, or further left to reclaim the Green vote.

Until there is someone who can unite the party and give them a clear sense of direction that they can all follow, there's no point getting rid of him.
 

Yew

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He has said he will nationalise British Steel subject to a public interest test. It's an odd choice to nationalise give I don't think it was high up on the list of priorities for the public in regards nationalisation.
I think it is the case that it's in a bit of trouble, and they were thinking of doing it anyway.

Not bad, by any means, but hardly the sweeping changes that he'll need to turn his fortunes around.
 

Sorcerer

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If the Railways are anything to go by then I am not sure it will help him. Public awareness of railway nationalisation seems to be low.
To be fair that's because there's been no noticeable changes to most people. The system still has the same problems and the names of the former private operators are still branded across current nationalised services. That plus the fact rail nationalisation, even if popular, isn't a high priority for most people compared to the cost of living and immigration.

Even if Great British Railways and British Steel are a roaring success the right-leaning media aren't going to be performing a song and dance about it anyway. Keir Starmer isn't perfect but even if he literally cured cancer the likes of The Daily Mail, The Sun and Reform would still find a way to spin it as a catastrophe such as "Stalinist Starmer mandates state monopoly on holy grail of medicine amid 15 brown people passing through customs!"
 

brad465

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The role of media and social media in all this needs to not be overlooked. Firstly because they will set an agenda that paints even the best PM it's possible to have in a bad light if it generates more clicks, and second, because their ability to trash anything and anyone in politics right now has put off the prospect of talented individuals pursuing a career in politics. The of course there's FPTP, the ability of private donors to corrupt parties and its politicians, and the poor standards MPs are held to.

It says a lot that we look set to have our 7th PM in 10 years, when prior to this period seven PMs traversed 40 years. That is not the failure of a particular individual, that is a system failure.
 

styles

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Feels like Labour are in a lose-lose situation.

If they keep Starmer, his popularity is in tatters with little hope for recovery.

If they switch leader, they lose their whole, "ending the Tory chaos", line, as Labour were basically voted in in the last general election due to people being sick of the constant changing of PMs, budgets, policies, etc. Whoever takes over would need to be able to stand the full 3 years until the next GE in order to continue this line. And let's be honest, when the local elections come round in 2027 and 2028 (along with the London Assembly and Mayor elections), will Labour fare any better under Streeting or Burnham? If not, are we going to evict them also?
 

Cowley

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Feels like Labour are in a lose-lose situation.

If they keep Starmer, his popularity is in tatters with little hope for recovery.

If they switch leader, they lose their whole, "ending the Tory chaos", line, as Labour were basically voted in in the last general election due to people being sick of the constant changing of PMs, budgets, policies, etc. Whoever takes over would need to be able to stand the full 3 years until the next GE in order to continue this line. And let's be honest, when the local elections come round in 2027 and 2028 (along with the London Assembly and Mayor elections), will Labour fare any better under Streeting or Burnham? If not, are we going to evict them also?

It feels to me that it’s either Streeting now or Burnham next year.

I think if there’s going to be a change then Streeting isn’t a bad shout because he’s fairly quick on his feet. He may well be best placed to grab the moment as well.
 

brad465

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Feels like Labour are in a lose-lose situation.

If they keep Starmer, his popularity is in tatters with little hope for recovery.

If they switch leader, they lose their whole, "ending the Tory chaos", line, as Labour were basically voted in in the last general election due to people being sick of the constant changing of PMs, budgets, policies, etc. Whoever takes over would need to be able to stand the full 3 years until the next GE in order to continue this line. And let's be honest, when the local elections come round in 2027 and 2028 (along with the London Assembly and Mayor elections), will Labour fare any better under Streeting or Burnham? If not, are we going to evict them also?
If we get Streeting one plus side is we won't hear from Dan Hodges for a while, as he'll be busy doing merchant banking to do anything else.
 

jon0844

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Starmer is a gonna. I said he was toast after the local elections and if he sees out the week I will be impressed

Seems like this will be the case, and another great example of Labour imploding within and giving the opposition all the ammunition they need. Now you'll be getting all the bots telling the people that if he goes, he must call a general election and that it's somehow undemocratic not to. Obviously not true, but nobody cares about the truth anymore.
 

Arglwydd Golau

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It feels to me that it’s either Streeting now or Burnham next year.

I think if there’s going to be a change then Streeting isn’t a bad shout because he’s fairly quick on his feet. He may well be best placed to grab the moment as well.
...but Streeting comes across as a smarmy so and so and, in my opinion will do absolutely nothing to reconnect with all the 'progressive' voters who have left Labour....and is there anything more to come out about his relationship with Mandelson?
 

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