The Middle East conflict

[Gloster]

What the actual...

Trump says US will leave Iran 'whether we have a deal or not'

The president says any deal with Tehran is "irrelevant" to when the US leaves the conflict, claiming that day could come in two to three weeks.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder if Trump is preparing the way for a pull out, but blaming everyone else for it. He had the best plan ever, but because all these backsliding Europeans wouldn’t support him he is going to make a dignified withdrawal: he wasn’t to blame, they were. This might go down well with some of the MAGA crowd…and with Putin.

Of course, that was this morning’s ‘thinking’. Whether it will still be this afternoon’s, we shall have to see.

 

[Citybreak1]

I think @Bletchleyite was more making the point that shortages of aviation fuel would mean fewer flights. An airline can be desperate for passengers but if there's no fuel they're not going anywhere.


Sounds like GBeebies trying to stoke up their braindead audience.

If there are fuel shortages then there will be rationing. And this, in turn, will mean that shops may shut earlier, workplaces may ask people to work from home, etc.

FWIW I don't think there'd be much shortage of electricity, it's more road fuel that would be the issue. Many of us are old enough to remember the fuel protests of the early 2000s. It caused chaos but people weren't locked up in their homes.

Hmm but there is fuel shortages isn’t there so that’s going to happen?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Mar 2026 ==

Also does anybody feel it’s not even Trump making the choices just like when Biden was in office?

 

[najaB]

IMO, the end result of this will be an agreement between Iran, the Gulf states and Europe that Hormuz will be reopened as long as there's no supply to America or American companies that way. America's isolation will continue as a result, the Gulf states will likely look to Europe as defence partners, and I could see the American forces in the Middle East being politely told to leave after they failed to protect their interests. Qatar came out today and said that the Straits of Hormuz are a "regional matter", which is fascinating.

Iran has already hinted that oil traded in currencies other than the US dollar is likely to find transit through the Strait much easier...

 

[Class73Electro]

Iran has already hinted that oil traded in currencies other than the US dollar is likely to find transit through the Strait much easier...

OK, not being that financially knowledgeable, how does this work exactly? Going down the local travel agents and asking for (a lot!) of Iranian currency?

 

[Bletchleyite]

OK, not being that financially knowledgeable, how does this work exactly? Going down the local travel agents and asking for (a lot!) of Iranian currency?

The Chinese yuan renminbi appears to be in favour.

 

[perstreperous]

I was entertained to note that the FTSE 100 was rising before Trump's latest effusions and continued to rise after them. I have heard, anecdotally, that he is being "tuned out" with regard to his impact on such matters. (It appears to be only the media who, now, treat every word of his as having weight).

 

[Tetchytyke]

Hmm but there is fuel shortages isn’t there so that’s going to happen?

Having to walk to work is not a "Covid-style restriction."

OK, not being that financially knowledgeable, how does this work exactly? Going down the local travel agents and asking for (a lot!) of Iranian currency?

Iran are hinting that they may allow some ships carrying oil to pass through the strait if the oil is being shipped on behalf of companies who neither buy nor sell it in the US dollar. So if your oil is priced in yuan renminbi, to choose a random example, then you might find that the strait isn't quite so dangerous for your ships.

I wonder if Trump is preparing the way for a pull out, but blaming everyone else for it. He had the best plan ever, but because all these backsliding Europeans wouldn’t support him he is going to make a dignified withdrawal: he wasn’t to blame, they were. This might go down well with some of the MAGA crowd…and with Putin.

Blaming those cheese-eating surrender monkeys worked for Dubya Bush, I suppose.

Trump has always parroted the view of the last person he spoke to. So when he's just been on the phone to Bibi he's all for prolonging the war, because that's what Israel wants. And when he's been on the phone to someone else suddenly he's for a dignified de-escalation, because that's what they want.

I don't think we can read much more than that into any of what he says. I love the media reporting on his Truth Social posts as though they're reading the runes when, in reality, he's just a senile monkey with a typewriter.

 

[Cdd89]

Iran has already hinted that oil traded in currencies other than the US dollar is likely to find transit through the Strait much easier...

Indeed, this is about as bad as it could possibly be for the US, to the point that I am genuinely astonished Trump has chosen this path and was incredibly confident in pronouncing that the US wouldn't leave without reasserting control of the Strait. Destroying both US relationships with allies and the dominance of the US dollar.

On the upside, it might be an off-ramp and the least-bad-option for the rest of the world, since it becomes overwhelmingly in Iran's interests to work with the rest of the world to further harm the US. No reason for the US's former allies to have any remaining loyalty to the US.

(I still think there's a chance that a unilateral US exit doesn't happen, simply because it's so astonishing to me)

 

[bleeder4]

We have plenty of our own oil in the North Sea. We just need to start using it. No reason for us to be dependant on the Strait long-term. Back in the 80s, we were one of the largest producers of oil in the world. The oil is still there, so we could ramp up production once more.

 

[brad465]

Market manipulation in relation to this war is bad enough, but we now have this story that would have brought down any previous US cabinet official, and quite possibly even have seen them jailed:

https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db

A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February about making a multimillion-dollar investment in the asset manager’s Defense Industrials Active ETF, the people said, shortly before the US launched military action against Tehran.

 

[ainsworth74]

I reckon another part of the problem is Trump is probably only being shown the CENTCOM sizzle reel all smoothly cut together showing US forces smashing Iranians to pieces. So surrounded by yes men and "cool" footage of the "goodies" smashing the "baddies" it must look like they're winning from his perspective.

 

[jon0844]

Market manipulation in relation to this war is bad enough, but we now have this story that would have brought down any previous US cabinet official, and quite possibly even have seen them jailed:

https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db

He's smart. He should be commended as a hero for looking out for his own best interests - the American way. Anyone that didn't make money out of the conflict is a loser.

(Do I need to add that I'm being sarcastic?)

 

[SargeNpton]

If you can find it on X/Twitter (sorry, I don't have the link), there is a "Downfall" parody video with a Trump cabinet meeting script of the current situation.

Very funny and you wonder how close to the truth it is.

 

[edwin_m]

We have plenty of our own oil in the North Sea. We just need to start using it. No reason for us to be dependant on the Strait long-term. Back in the 80s, we were one of the largest producers of oil in the world. The oil is still there, so we could ramp up production once more.

How long do you think it takes to bring a new oilfield into production?

And are you aware that everyone pays pretty much the same for oil wherever it comes from, because the companies that extract it sell it to the highest bidder?

 

[nw1]

Wouldn't have thought so. Fuel rationing (particularly diesel; apparently the UK is a net exporter of petrol so we should be able to manage that OK) isn't wildly unlikely though, as is a considerable reduction in the availability of air travel.

What do you mean by "a considerable reduction in the availabillty of air travel" ?

I ask as for personal reasons I have a fairly important trip to southern Europe coming up this summer. Intend to book very soon while prices are reasonable.
I am flexible with the dates, as long as it's after around 29 June or so (can't go earlier) as I am going for a few weeks.... are you suggesting that people won't be able to travel this summer? Or will it just be more expensive/less frequent schedules, which those of us with more flexibility can work round? I'd assume a near-total grounding of flights is unlikely to happen.

Any tips to get round any issues other than booking early and being flexible with dates?

It's a bit far away to make train or coach a viable alternative, ie. it's not say Spain or northern Italy.

 

[perstreperous]

Also building out North Sea oilfields would only put off the deadly day when no more could be extracted economically (the "last drop" argument is nonsense) and we would be in a worse position than now (no more oil to be extracted and funds previously diverted to that buildout from sustainable methods).

From looking around the informed opinion is that 90-95% of oil that could be extracted economically from UK territory already has been. Even if all the remaining 5-10% could be extracted it would be no saviour ...

 

[Darandio]

No reason for us to be dependant on the Strait long-term.

But we aren't really dependent on oil from there. Neither are the US. We take a fraction from that region yet i'm paying 40p per litre more than last month despite those selling me it telling me with a straight face they aren't profiteering. What's going on?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Mar 2026 ==

And are you aware that everyone pays pretty much the same for oil wherever it comes from, because the companies that extract it sell it to the highest bidder?

I know this is the answer but still. In the days after the attack on Iran started the news was very keen to repeat that it would take weeks before price increases would find their way to the forecourts. I'm pretty sure it was up 5-6p within a few days.

 

[RT4038]

But we aren't really dependent on oil from there. Neither are the US. We take a fraction from that region yet i'm paying 40p per litre more than last month despite those selling me it telling me with a straight face they aren't profiteering. What's going on?

Because other people who are dependent on the oil from there are now prepared to pay higher prices for your oil. So you have to match them in order to retain your supply. Of course your supplier is profiteering, and why wouldn't he be?

 

[The Ham]

How long do you think it takes to bring a new oilfield into production?

And are you aware that everyone pays pretty much the same for oil wherever it comes from, because the companies that extract it sell it to the highest bidder?

As a follow up question, anyone fancy to guess over the course of the whole of the 14 years of the Tory government having issued well over 100 licences the total number of months of UK gas use this has resulted in?

To help with this, hopefully this could be a guide, 14 years is 168 months, which means to have reached the following percentage of our total gas use it would need to be theses sorts of numbers:

85% - 143 months
75% - 126 months
65% - 109 months
55% - 92 months
45% - 76 months
35% - 59 months
25% - 42 months

Anyone fancy guessing from those numbers or something else?

 

[edwin_m]

As a follow up question, anyone fancy to guess over the course of the whole of the 14 years of the Tory government having issued well over 100 licences the total number of months of UK gas use this has resulted in?

To help with this, hopefully this could be a guide, 14 years is 168 months, which means to have reached the following percentage of our total gas use it would need to be theses sorts of numbers:

85% - 143 months
75% - 126 months
65% - 109 months
55% - 92 months
45% - 76 months
35% - 59 months
25% - 42 months

Anyone fancy guessing from those numbers or something else?

I saw the story but I won't post it here to spoil the fun.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What do you mean by "a considerable reduction in the availabillty of air travel" ?

Your guess is as good as mine, it depends how long the war goes on.

 

[Bantamzen]

What do you mean by "a considerable reduction in the availabillty of air travel" ?

I ask as for personal reasons I have a fairly important trip to southern Europe coming up this summer. Intend to book very soon while prices are reasonable.
I am flexible with the dates, as long as it's after around 29 June or so (can't go earlier) as I am going for a few weeks.... are you suggesting that people won't be able to travel this summer? Or will it just be more expensive/less frequent schedules, which those of us with more flexibility can work round? I'd assume a near-total grounding of flights is unlikely to happen.

Any tips to get round any issues other than booking early and being flexible with dates?

It's a bit far away to make train or coach a viable alternative, ie. it's not say Spain or northern Italy.

Prices may well go up if oil prices remain high, so booking sooner rather than later is probably prudent. There may be some level of capacity reduction if things go on, but many summer flights are already selling up so there should be seats to be had on European flights.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

If you can find it on X/Twitter (sorry, I don't have the link), there is a "Downfall" parody video with a Trump cabinet meeting script of the current situation.

Very funny and you wonder how close to the truth it is.

Is this the one...?

 

[JamieL]

Indeed, this is about as bad as it could possibly be for the US, to the point that I am genuinely astonished Trump has chosen this path and was incredibly confident in pronouncing that the US wouldn't leave without reasserting control of the Strait. Destroying both US relationships with allies and the dominance of the US dollar.

Whilst I agree with this, I do have some sympathy for the US position regarding its Allies.

Whilst we clearly shouldn't be involved in this US-Israeli unlawful war, given how import the Strait of Hormuz is to our economy it is amazing we don't have warships in the vicinity to promote our interests.

In the '80s and '90s we had the Armilla Patrol in the region for this very reason. In more recent years it has been Operation Kipion. But the cutbacks to the Navy during the 'Land focused' Afghanistan war days have come home to bite hard - the days of two Frigates/Destroyers always being deployed East of Suez are a distant memory now.

In the meantime, the Straits of Hormuz remains critical to the UK for energy security (LNG and Oil based products), food security (fertiliser) and is also a key export route for UK supplied food, medicines and technological supplies.

We should probably take a little more interest rather than outsource to the US.

 

[SargeNpton]

Is this the one...?

No, there is another one in which the president is far less cognisant of what is happening.

 

[DarloRich]

We have plenty of our own oil in the North Sea. We just need to start using it. No reason for us to be dependant on the Strait long-term. Back in the 80s, we were one of the largest producers of oil in the world. The oil is still there, so we could ramp up production once more.

Firstly it isn't quite that clear cut ( there was a long explainer by Ed Conway on Sky that I now cant find),secondly it isn't "our" oil because belongs de facto to the petro companies who will sell it on the open market, thirdly we should be moving away from oil as much as we can as a power source and fourthly it isn't as simple as saying "make it so"

it is nowhere near as simple as people like Farage will suggest. The explainer above set out that whilst there could be lots more oil out there most of the easily and financially attractive accessible reserves have been taken.

 

[Class73Electro]

It's amazing how many people are going down the "dig up the North Sea" route and complaining that its all Net Zeros fault, when this is the perfect time to show the advantages of renewables!

 

[bleeder4]

It's amazing how many people are going down the "dig up the North Sea" route and complaining that its all Net Zeros fault, when this is the perfect time to show the advantages of renewables!

The problem with renewables is cost. I got a quote to install a heat pump last year and it was over £13k. Even with the £7k government loan, that's still beyond the limit of affordability. No one will switch to renewables until they become cheaper than conventional energy sources.

 

[Cloud Strife]

OK, not being that financially knowledgeable, how does this work exactly? Going down the local travel agents and asking for (a lot!) of Iranian currency?

Essentially, the contracts would be in euro or possibly the renminbi, but China may not necessarily want the second option. If it happens, the dollar will tank and Trump will find himself in even more of a mess as a result.

What matters here is that if Iran and the other states agree to this, then it's likely that energy will start being priced in the currency of choice of the seller. Russia tried it and failed because of the sanctions, but I can see the Gulf states happily diversifying into other currencies.

 

[AlterEgo]

The problem with renewables is cost. I got a quote to install a heat pump last year and it was over £13k. Even with the £7k government loan, that's still beyond the limit of affordability. No one will switch to renewables until they become cheaper than conventional energy sources.

“No one”? Lots of people switch to renewables. We have a renewable only energy tariff and solar panels. Just because it doesn’t work for you doesn’t mean it doesn’t work for others.

The latest nonsense in the Middle East has me wanting a heat pump to protect our family further from global instability in energy prices.