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Corbyn almost moved things back (with predictable electoral consequence)
My only concern about Corbyn is that it might have been Brexit, rather than the left-wing policies, that ruined his chances. Of course the right-wing media wanted it to be Corbyn's left-wing stance that was the problem. But actually, what if it was just that Brexit needed doing. What if the country wanted to get Brexit done and then crack on with Corbyn's agenda?
I certainly did not want to crack on with Corbyn's agenda, and won't vote Labour, but do we actually know that it is being left focused that stops Labour getting elected?
The media were hostile to Corbyn there is no question, however he didn't help himself. I remember at the 2017 election The Sun had the famous headline of "don't chuck Britain in the COR-BIN". In it Corbyn was mentioned as a "Terrorist friend". Let's face it, being accused of having associations with terrorism is a very serious accusation. If the media said that about any other politician, there would be a massive lawsuit. However as Corbyn is on video saying Hamas and Hezbollah are his friends there is nothing he could do. His questionable links to Sinn Fein and the IRA didn't help, let's face it Sinn Fein is probably the most disliked party that is contesting elections in the United Kingdom. (I am aware that Sinn Fein do not like the United Kingdom but the fact is 85% of UK constituencies are in England and Sinn Fein is unpopular in England)
Could another left winger won? Possibly but they would need to not have the same baggage that Corbyn did.
I think the results speak for themselves here. Being left wing doesn’t make you unelectable. I would also like to point out that Corbyn got more votes than Starmer did.
So what, that's like boasting when a football team scores 5 in a match, but loses 6-5, Corbyn still lost the election.
UK General Elections are not about how many votes you get, but how many seats you win, Corbyn won 202 seats which was one of the worst Labour results this side of World War 2, he also lost Labour heartland seats in areas like County Durham, Corbyn is not a leader but a professional protester.
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I will add
The Tories made themselves so hated that anyone with half a brain knew the Tories were going to get smashed in the last election, that a lot of Tory voters, as did Labour voters stayed at home, but Starmer has made himself & this Government as hated as the Tories, this Government's MO is
Announce an unpopular policy
Get vitriol over it
Refuse to change & send Ministers & MPs everywhere defending the policy
Get more vitriol over it
After weeks/months of vitriol, at the 11th hour announce a U-Turn, but the damage has already been done
I view the Labour left as the right's useful idiots, it's the gift that keeps giving, we handed the Tories, and the right in general, a bat to beat us with every time, the left would have Labour in opposition rather than in power, protest over actually making people's lives better,
Corbyn was a disaster for Labour, it set the party back, it allowed Trotskyites back into the party, it allowed Momentum to be a party within a party, electorally, it lost Labour seats, and the party became an echo bowl, voters were never going to vote for it.
Generally, the British tend to prefer slightly centrist parties, that don't change things to drastically, that's why politics tend to be boring, change is dangerous, Brexit has proven that, as the downfall of the Tory party into irrelevance without very rich backers Reform would just be a fringe party,
We tend to go slightly to the right, but not too much, Tory administration, followed by slightly more left Labour administration, which centres the needle, before it swings slightly right again, the tory party became so hated because they went too far right, and people expected Labour to move things back towards the centre,
Are they necessarily unpopular right now? Certainly since 1998 I have not had a problem with Sinn Fein.
Personally the Northern Irish party that I dislike with a passion is the DUP, not because of their stance on unionism versus nationalism, but because of their positions on abortion, Brexit and LGBT rights.
Personally the Northern Irish party that I dislike with a passion is the DUP, not because of their stance on unionism versus nationalism, but because of their positions on abortion, Brexit and LGBT rights.
My only concern about Corbyn is that it might have been Brexit, rather than the left-wing policies, that ruined his chances. Of course the right-wing media wanted it to be Corbyn's left-wing stance that was the problem. But actually, what if it was just that Brexit needed doing. What if the country wanted to get Brexit done and then crack on with Corbyn's agenda?
I'm not sure Brexit "needed doing" at all. IMO, the referendum was designed solely to win the Tories the 2015 election, something it did succeed in doing.
What most middle-of-the-road people wanted I suspect was for the Brexit issue to go away, one way or another (as it was occupying so much Westminster time), and the average person would have likely been equally happy to just cancel it and move on as they would to implement it.
I believe the real reason Boris won in 2019 was that people were afraid of Corbyn, rightly or wrongly. I wasn't afraid of Corbyn and would have far preferred him to Boris, but the fact that the Tories won across most of the "Remain" heartlands meant that Corbyn was seen, rightly or wrongly, as a bigger danger than Brexit.
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I agree, and the answer personally is Reform, by a long way. But it doesn't stop me having a strong opinion of the DUP, just like I have an opinion of the RN, or the MAGA wing of the GOP, or the AfD.
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For the Conservatives, there is less panic. They should not go after Reform either. Provide a clear version of what Conservatves are in terms of individualism and smaller state and they will see of Reform. Reform cannot out Conservative the Conservatives.
I actually think the Tories are in a somewhat strong position going forward as people on the right will likely increasingly see Reform as extremist, especially given Donald Trump's antics in the USA. I do feel in the coming years people will increasingly "find out" the populist right for what it is (more obsessed with "anti-wokery" than running the economy in a sensible manner), and gravitate back towards the traditional right. Additionally, Labour seem to have taken over from the Tories as the go-to "hate party" for the "plague on all your houses" crowd.
I don't think the Tories are right for the country either (my view, given the financial difficulties and insecurity many are facing, is that we need a left-of-centre government right now, with strong social politics) but they are very much better than the absurd Reform, who will likely just make things a million times worse due to their illogical anti-woke obsessions and love of cuts.
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I hope they are massacred in the May elections. Only the Greens and Reform are offering significantly different visions of a future UK. It is no surprise both parties did well in last night's by-election. Labour are outflanked on the right by Reform and on the left by the Greens.
But we certainly don't want the vision offered by Reform, and I certainly don't want Labour to be "massacred" if that means Reform getting more power. Do you honestly believe that it would be a good thing if Reform took power from Labour in certain councils? It's a theoretical risk in my local council, though it's a tough one to call as the left are also strong - and I absolutely do not want Reform taking my local council. It could be disastrous. Those in most social need could suffer as a Reform council could well implement swingeing and vicious DOGE-like cuts.
Make no mistake, IMO Reform offer nothing but a UK version of MAGA/DOGE. A toxic mix of right-wing populism, anti-wokery and cuts. I'm not sure that is a vision of a future UK that is worth celebrating: it sounds more like a hell-hole.
If you look at the by-election figures it is of note that Labour were not far behind Reform; the Greens to Reform gap is far bigger than the Reform to Labour gap. Had Burnham stood, I suspect the result would have been a massive Labour win; they were incredibly stupid to stop him standing.
That said, I do think the Greens are offering a more positive, hope-based vision for the future compared to Labour's rather negative approach. Hope and optimism is what we need: doom and gloom will do no-one any good as it will just continue a vicious circle of decline.
I view the Labour left as the right's useful idiots, it's the gift that keeps giving, we handed the Tories, and the right in general, a bat to beat us with every time, the left would have Labour in opposition rather than in power, protest over actually making people's lives better,
Corbyn was a disaster for Labour, it set the party back, it allowed Trotskyites back into the party, it allowed Momentum to be a party within a party, electorally, it lost Labour seats, and the party became an echo bowl, voters were never going to vote for it.
Generally, the British tend to prefer slightly centrist parties, that don't change things to drastically, that's why politics tend to be boring, change is dangerous, Brexit has proven that, as the downfall of the Tory party into irrelevance without very rich backers Reform would just be a fringe party,
We tend to go slightly to the right, but not too much, Tory administration, followed by slightly more left Labour administration, which centres the needle, before it swings slightly right again, the tory party became so hated because they went too far right, and people expected Labour to move things back towards the centre,
If the greens, Labour and the Tories all split into two seperate parties each, I wonder who would win?
Greens would split the liberal legalise drugs part away from the conservative give Gaza your vote Muslim aligned parts into two, Labour would have the momentum/Jeremy Corbyn/Owen Jones part split away from the traditional northern ex trade union miners in County Durham part. Tories would split the David Cameron slightly right of centre part away from the Boris Johnson further right part.
Are they necessarily unpopular right now? Certainly since 1998 I have not had a problem with Sinn Fein.
Personally the Northern Irish party that I dislike with a passion is the DUP, not because of their stance on unionism versus nationalism, but because of their positions on abortion, Brexit and LGBT rights.
The DUP are certainally unpopular in England as to many older voters they still have associations with Ian Paisley, whom to many he was seen as hardline and bigoted. However because of their links to the Provisional IRA I would say Sinn Fein are more unpopular in Great Britain than the DUP are. Neither are popular, though.
The DUP are certainally unpopular in England as to many older voters they still have associations with Ian Paisley, whom to many he was seen as hardline and bigoted.
The DUP are certainally unpopular in England as to many older voters they still have associations with Ian Paisley, whom to many he was seen as hardline and bigoted. However because of their links to the Provisional IRA I would say Sinn Fein are more unpopular in Great Britain than the DUP are. Neither are popular, though.
Beyond those old on the tooth and unable to leave the 1980s behind them, I don't think many in the UK really have Sinn Fein on their radar unless they live in NI. The DUP on the other hand have actively dabbled in UK politics causing all sorts of grief - their alliance with the May Government and Brexit antics amongst them - so if anything Sinn Fein's agenda for an indy Ireland would serve to severe our association with the DUP.
Beyond those old on the tooth and unable to leave the 1980s behind them, I don't think many in the UK really have Sinn Fein on their radar unless they live in NI. The DUP on the other hand have actively dabbled in UK politics causing all sorts of grief - their alliance with the May Government and Brexit antics amongst them - so if anything Sinn Fein's agenda for an indy Ireland would serve to severe our association with the DUP.
....and Sinn Fein are well on their way to forming the government of the Irish Republic in the not too distant future. That would certainly impact on the political situation in NI and therefore the UK.
Beyond those old on the tooth and unable to leave the 1980s behind them, I don't think many in the UK really have Sinn Fein on their radar unless they live in NI. The DUP on the other hand have actively dabbled in UK politics causing all sorts of grief - their alliance with the May Government and Brexit antics amongst them - so if anything Sinn Fein's agenda for an indy Ireland would serve to severe our association with the DUP.
....and Sinn Fein are well on their way to forming the government of the Irish Republic in the not too distant future. That would certainly impact on the political situation in NI and therefore the UK.
As I say the DUP are not thought of highly but I would say Sinn Fein is probably more disliked in England. Theresa May's confidence and support agreement with the DUP didn't go down well after all.
Put it this way you are unlikely to attract voters in England by working with Sinn Fein but you will put voters off.
It's not just Sinn Fein, Corbyn's links to the Provisional IRA are questionable. He has many times refused to condem the Provisional IRA saying "I condem all bombing". Also since the Good Friday agreement Corbyn has shared a platform at multiple events with people convicted of terrorism. Again that does not go down well with voters.
What I am seeing here is a suggestion that Labour could have done better with Corbyn's policies if it was not Corbyn fronting the party.
The country is crying out for a party that represents the interests of the centre left. The narrative of "left behind" says it all. I just wish someone in Labour would be brave and go against centre-right people like me instead of trying to compete for my vote.
They are playthings for their owners to write what they want. And that's not just the case in the UK (e.g. Jeff Bezos and the Washington Post). And it's not even just the case in the anglophone media: Axel Springer's owner Mathias Doepfner has some interesting opinions. It is no surprise that Bild are the AfD's biggest cheerleader and even Die Welt gave Elon Musk the front page to sing the praises of AfD.
If people don't read newspapers any more, as you assert, why are you worrying what they print then, or the views of their owners? If they were that important to publicising the left wing view, why do they not have an equal number of newspapers espousing that view?
I am just glad that the Mirror still exists. Find a really bad day for Starmer (there are plenty) and then check out the Mirror front page. When the Mandelson thing was kicking off on every other paper the version on the BBC front pages was showing a Mirror campaign update. Very noble campaign by the way.
What I am seeing here is a suggestion that Labour could have done better with Corbyn's policies if it was not Corbyn fronting the party.
The country is crying out for a party that represents the interests of the centre left. The narrative of "left behind" says it all. I just wish someone in Labour would be brave and go against centre-right people like me instead of trying to compete for my vote.
In 2019 not so much partially due to the fact that the whole idea of having a costed Manifesto went out the window. After the manifesto was published Corbyn promised to compensate the WASPI women. Whether that was a good policy is a story for another day. However he had no costings for it meaming his claim of fiscal responsibility went out the window.
Also by 2019 I think his supporters were losing patience. He had been in the role for 4 and a half years and was no further forward implementing his policy. Sure drawing huge crowds at Glastonbury is good but without a majority at Westminster it's meaningless. I think leader would have struggled on 2019 to keep of the momentum by that point.
If people don't read newspapers any more, as you assert, why are you worrying what they print then, or the views of their owners? If they were that important to publicising the left wing view, why do they not have an equal number of newspapers espousing that view?
I am just glad that the Mirror still exists. Find a really bad day for Starmer (there are plenty) and then check out the Mirror front page. When the Mandelson thing was kicking off on every other paper the version on the BBC front pages was showing a Mirror campaign update. Very noble campaign by the way.
We have always had a largely right wing press in this country however 30 years ago many people watched the TV news as well so got a better perspective.
With the amount of partisan news sites and podcasts appearing like The Canary or the "Liz Truss Show" more and more people are getting their news from hyper partisan sources. These websites are not "fake news" but it's important to accept they have a clear agenda and are not neutral.
One that really annoys me is The Rest is Politics podcast. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart are not bad hosts but the podcast itself is in my opinion a virtual rallying ground for Keir Starmer, Joe Biden and the European Union. Nothing wrong with that but too many people see it as a news source when in reality it's a partisan chat show.
In regards Jeffrey Epstein and Lord Mandleson I don't think anyone can say that Keir Starmer and Labour are coming out of it well.
If the greens, Labour and the Tories all split into two seperate parties each, I wonder who would win?
Greens would split the liberal legalise drugs part away from the conservative give Gaza your vote Muslim aligned parts into two, Labour would have the momentum/Jeremy Corbyn/Owen Jones part split away from the traditional northern ex trade union miners in County Durham part. Tories would split the David Cameron slightly right of centre part away from the Boris Johnson further right part.
I'm surprised that you think this part of the Labour party still exists, it doesn't. I know many people who joined the party under Corbyn who have since left, thanks to Starmer. It was a central part of the McSweeney project to push them out.
Not even a change of leader would attract me back to Labour at this point.
When you try your best and you don't succeed
When you get what you want, but not what you need
When you feel so tired that you can't sleep
Stuck in reverse...
Are you sure Coldplay are not running the country?
(I could have copy pasted the lyrics from Fix You but I thought I would try from memory)
In this Gorton and Denton by-election compared to the General Election on 4 July 2024 the vote share changes are Green +28% Labour -25% Reform UK +15% Conservatives -9%. The 48% by-election turnout is about the same as at the General Election.
It is impossible to know the reasons every voter decided on their voting choice. The vote share changes are almost entirely Conservative to Reform UK and Labour to Green. There is no switch from Labour to Reform UK. It is possible that many Labour voters decided to vote Green to block the Reform UK candidate as they concluded that voting Green was the way to do this.
....and Sinn Fein are well on their way to forming the government of the Irish Republic in the not too distant future. That would certainly impact on the political situation in NI and therefore the UK.
But we certainly don't want the vision offered by Reform, and I certainly don't want Labour to be "massacred" if that means Reform getting more power. Do you honestly believe that it would be a good thing if Reform took power from Labour in certain councils?
No, and nowhere did I say Reform would be a good thing.
Labour are doing the equivalent of playing in the road at the minute and it would be nice to see them hit by a car. Don't care if it's by a Prius or a Defender to be honest.
Labour are doing the equivalent of playing in the road at the minute and it would be nice to see them hit by a car. Don't care if it's by a Prius or a Defender to be honest.
Yet there's plenty of people calling Labour communists and criticising their tax policies and regulatory policies for being too left wing and too anti-business.
Labour have made plenty of mistakes and some of the immigration rhetoric is a bit strong for my liking, but at the same time something has to be done about the small boat crossings because it seems to anger people even on the left of politics.
I'd hope even a relatively uninterested voter would be able to see that Labour are miles away from Reform. Reform are completely opposed to a lot of what Labour are proposing such as the Renters Rights Bill, which I think is a huge step forward for the rental sector. As for the Greens, if Labour are finding it difficult to implement some of their policies without business and the markets kicking off, I don't think the Greens have much hope of being able to further drive the country to the left.
Yet there's plenty of people calling Labour communists and criticising their tax policies and regulatory policies for being too left wing and too anti-business.
Labour have made plenty of mistakes and some of the immigration rhetoric is a bit strong for my liking, but at the same time something has to be done about the small boat crossings because it seems to anger people even on the left of politics.
I'd hope even a relatively uninterested voter would be able to see that Labour are miles away from Reform. Reform are completely opposed to a lot of what Labour are proposing such as the Renters Rights Bill, which I think is a huge step forward for the rental sector. As for the Greens, if Labour are finding it difficult to implement some of their policies without business and the markets kicking off, I don't think the Greens have much hope of being able to further drive the country to the left.
One of the great sadnesses of recent times has been this allowance of the markets to dictate policy.
For all the criticism of Truss, the fact that it was the markets that caused the reversal of the mini-budget will always frustrate me.
We do not exist to pander to the markets. Yes, we do need to pay attention to what can be borrowed, or what can be taxed without business leaving, we also need to govern for the people. If the people vote for a left wing government then that left-wing government needs to take on the market.
Likewise, if we elect a low tax party then that party needs to lower tax and not let market signals change anything.
People will always call names, it is part (albeit a sad part) of debating. What we need are parties that accept the names and press on with the agenda they are elected to deliver.
The sadness is the decades of economic mismanagement that has resulted in the UK having a huge pile of debt. "The markets" are the institutions that lend the UK that money. There is a steady stream of maturing debt that has to be rolled over and the institutions that hold the maturing bonds don't have to buy the new bonds that replace them. The government still spends a lot more than it raises in tax, and the gap is filled by more new debt. Any UK government has to take care not to bite the hand that feeds it.
For all the criticism of Truss, the fact that it was the markets that caused the reversal of the mini-budget will always frustrate me.
We do not exist to pander to the markets. Yes, we do need to pay attention to what can be borrowed, or what can be taxed without business leaving, we also need to govern for the people. If the people vote for a left wing government then that left-wing government needs to take on the market.
Likewise, if we elect a low tax party then that party needs to lower tax and not let market signals change anything.
The sadness is also how quickly people forget the lessons and consequences of Truss. The "market signals" are changes ins the interest cost on existing and new debt. It isn't just a signal it has a real economic impact: it costs taxpayers more in the form of higher interest payments. This government is still having to pay that price more than 3 years later.
The sadness is the decades of economic mismanagement that has resulted in the UK having a huge pile of debt. "The markets" are the institutions that lend the UK that money. There is a steady stream of maturing debt that has to be rolled over and the institutions that hold the maturing bonds don't have to buy the new bonds that replace them. The government still spends a lot more than it raises in tax, and the gap is filled by more new debt. Any UK government has to take care not to bite the hand that feeds it.
The sadness is also how quickly people forget the lessons and consequences of Truss. The "market signals" are changes ins the interest cost on existing and new debt. It isn't just a signal it has a real economic impact: it costs taxpayers more in the form of higher interest payments. This government is still having to pay that price more than 3 years later.
Not sure if this helps greatly, but it might be beneficial to add a little more context. All the charts tell the same story. Borrowing costs are higher now.
But yes, lets go back to the mini-budget and assume all is sweetness and light since then.
People may also notice the rapid rise in the rates on 10 year bonds in the months leading up to the mini-budget. But let's not let the data get involved too much.
Labour are both running more expensive borrowing costs, and failing to do anything radical.
Not sure if this helps greatly, but it might be beneficial to add a little more context. All the charts tell the same story. Borrowing costs are higher now.
But yes, lets go back to the mini-budget and assume all is sweetness and light since then.
People may also notice the rapid rise in the rates on 10 year bonds in the months leading up to the mini-budget. But let's not let the data get involved too much.
Labour are both running more expensive borrowing costs, and failing to do anything radical.
Your charts show the UK in the middle or the range until 2022. Since the 2022 mini-budget the UK has been at the top.
That shows that financial institutions want significantly more interest from lending to the UK than for lending to other G7 countries, and that has only pertained since 2022.
That's not just about what the current government does, it is also about the track record of other recent governments and what might come next. Anyone lending to the UK government beyond 2029 will already be thinking about what might happen in the next General Election.
Indeed, and Farage could adopt Truss-like policies without the means the Tory party had of removing their leader and reversing them. With Reform being top of the polls investors will be pricing this risk in.
So Labour's unpopularity is hurting the country economically and hitting the tax base, leading to more unpopular cuts or tax rises.
One of the great sadnesses of recent times has been this allowance of the markets to dictate policy.
For all the criticism of Truss, the fact that it was the markets that caused the reversal of the mini-budget will always frustrate me.
We do not exist to pander to the markets. Yes, we do need to pay attention to what can be borrowed, or what can be taxed without business leaving, we also need to govern for the people. If the people vote for a left wing government then that left-wing government needs to take on the market.
Likewise, if we elect a low tax party then that party needs to lower tax and not let market signals change anything.
People will always call names, it is part (albeit a sad part) of debating. What we need are parties that accept the names and press on with the agenda they are elected to deliver.
The 2022 mini‑budget wasn’t overturned because “markets dictated policy,” but because the government’s unfunded £45 - 50bn tax cuts triggered a severe financial crisis. Gilt yields spiked at record speed, partly due to pension fund LDI mechanisms, which forced emergency gilt sales and pushed yields even higher
The Bank of England had to intervene to stabilise collapsing pension funds and restore market function, not to overrule democracy.
Markets weren’t expressing ideology - they were reacting to basic arithmetic: soaring inflation, rising debt, and a huge deficit increase with no credible plan to fund it caused lenders to demand higher interest. This is why the pound fell, borrowing costs surged, and the plans became unsustainable
Left‑ or right‑wing governments can pursue their agendas, but only within fiscal reality. Ignoring market signals isn’t “strong government” - it’s reckless, and in this case it risked collapsing pensions and driving up mortgage rates for millions.
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