Lumo Expansion - FirstGroup make further applications

[Snow1964]

First Group have issued a statement saying applying for more (enhanced), additional or revised new routes as follows :
Rochdale-London
Stirling-London (additional years)
Cardiff-Birmingham-York (using redeployed 222s)

Will be new stock for first two if approved

28 Oct 2025
FirstGroup plc plans to expand its open access rail operations through its successful Lumo business, boosting connectivity, improving UK productivity and passenger choice across the UK.
The expansion aims to replicate the success of Lumo’s Edinburgh to London service in driving material growth on the East Coast Main Line. Lumo operates without government subsidy and contributes more per train mile to infrastructure investment than any other long-distance operator - delivering growth on the railway and connectivity to local communities, at a substantial benefit to the taxpayer.
FirstGroup has submitted the first phase of three separate applications to the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) for new and extended open access rail services, which are:

• A revised application to run new services between Rochdale and London Euston via Manchester Victoria from December 2028;
• An extension to Lumo’s current Stirling to London Euston track access agreement to operate services beyond 2030;
• A new route between Cardiff and York via Birmingham, Derby, and Sheffield from December 2028; and
• Purchase of new trains meaning continued investment in UK manufacturing of c.£300million, and long-term jobs.

Should these applications be successful, FirstGroup will make use of its option to commit further investment in new Hitachi trains built in County Durham. This investment will include five battery electric trains for the Stirling route and three battery electric trains for Rochdale, supporting jobs at Hitachi’s Newton Aycliffe plant. For the services between Cardiff and York, it will deploy refurbished Class 222s.

Rochdale-London
The new Lumo service will operate the first direct service since 2000 between Rochdale and London. Services will call at Manchester Victoria, Eccles, Newton-le-Willows and Warrington Bank Quay. Eccles station connects other parts of the city of Salford, including the fast-growing MediaCity area, via the nearby interchange with Metrolink. Services to Newton-le-Willows will deliver greater rail connectivity for St Helens.
There will be three new return services on weekdays and Sundays, and four return services on Saturdays, which will provide 1.6 million people in the north-west with a convenient and competitively priced direct rail service to London, encouraging people to switch from cars to train as well as providing additional rail capacity. It will also deliver material economic benefits for the communities along the route, including regeneration areas such as Atom Valley and the Liverpool City Region Freeport scheme.
The application has been revised to address the ORR’s concerns about network capacity set out in its letter of July 2025 rejecting FirstGroup’s original application. Supported by extensive modelling, the company has identified sufficient space on the network to accommodate the proposed services. Services will also make use of the Government’s recent investment in power supply for the West Coast Mainline (WCML).

Stirling-London
Stirling has a wide catchment area, with an estimated three million people living within an hour’s drive. Extending the current track access agreement for the Stirling route from May 2030 will support the shift from car to rail, and investment in the city, as well as in the service’s intermediate stations which include Larbert, Greenfaulds and Whifflet, thanks to greater connectivity to London. The four return services weekdays and Saturdays, and three on Sundays, on the new route are expected to start early in the company's 2027 financial year.

Cardiff-York via Birmingham and Derby
Lumo’s new route between Cardiff and York will join up the entire Great British Railway network, connecting all four main lines from the Great Western Main Line to the East Coast Main Line. The plans will also deliver more capacity and drive passenger demand on a previously underserved corridor.
The application proposes six return services each weekday - a significant increase from the current single weekly service.
Bringing Lumo’s popular low-cost model to the corridor will support local communities between Cardiff, Birmingham, Derby, Sheffield, and York. These cities alone have a combined population of more than 2.5 million people. The new services will give local communities access to jobs and services along the route, in support of significant investment that has already been committed by the Government and private sector. This investment includes the Cardiff Capital Regional Investment Zone, the £140million proposed refurbishment at Cardiff Central station, the West Midlands Investment Zone which is expected to create £5.5 billion of growth and 30,000 new jobs, as well as investment plans in Derby, Sheffield and York.

The ORR will now carry out a consultation exercise as well as discuss the applications with Network Rail to secure the required approvals.

FIRST TO THE FUTURE: Lumo owner bids to turbo-charge UK rail with new routes

FirstGroup plc plans to expand

www.firstgroupplc.com

 

[Class15]

Out of interest what happened to the Carmarthen service?

 

[JamesT]

Out of interest what happened to the Carmarthen service?

Due to start in 2027, pending the production of some new 80X rolling stock for it.

 

[hexagon789]

Out of interest what happened to the Carmarthen service?

Waiting on new fleet AIUI.

 

[Class15]

Due to start in 2027, pending the production of some new 80X rolling stock for it.

Waiting on new fleet AIUI.

Many thanks both, that’s great news!

 

[JonathanH]

Is this likely to follow the same process as before? Network Rail objecting to the use of whatever capacity Lumo have identified, so the ORR turn it down.

When is the decision on changes to access fees likely to emerge?

Where is the white space in the timetable through Birmingham New Street for Lumo to call there?

 

[The Planner]

Is this likely to follow the same process as before? Network Rail objecting to the use of whatever capacity Lumo have identified, so the ORR turn it down.

When is the decision on changes to access fees likely to emerge?

Where is the white space in the timetable through Birmingham New Street for Lumo to call there?

The Rochdale doesn't stand a chance. The Cardiff York will be trying to get the paths XC aren't using on the Reading Newcastle.

 

[Snow1964]

Is this likely to follow the same process as before? Network Rail objecting to the use of whatever capacity Lumo have identified, so the ORR turn it down.

The First a group press release says

The application has been revised to address the ORR’s concerns about network capacity set out in its letter of July 2025 rejecting FirstGroup’s original application. Supported by extensive modelling, the company has identified sufficient space on the network to accommodate the proposed services. Services will also make use of the Government’s recent investment in power supply for the West Coast Mainline (WCML).

Sounds like the have found solutions to the Network Rail objections previously, so either Network Rail will have to find new objection reasons this time, or they won't have any objection to ORR this time.

 

[RealTrains07]

I’ve seen on Rail UK that Lumo has submitted a revised bid for its Euston - Rochdale service. Its also been published on the ORR website.

Meanwhile still no sign of the prposed LNR manchester extensions on the ORR website? Is there any update on this?

Lumo owner bids to turbo-charge UK rail with new routes - Rail UK

Lumo owner bids to turbo-charge UK rail with new routes - General Interest

railuk.com

 

[Brubulus]

I’ve seen on Rail UK that Lumo has submitted a revised bid for its Euston - Rochdale service. Its also been published on the ORR website.

Meanwhile still no sign of the prposed LNR manchester extensions on the ORR website? Is there any update on this?

Lumo owner bids to turbo-charge UK rail with new routes - Rail UK

Lumo owner bids to turbo-charge UK rail with new routes - General Interest

railuk.com

What do they not understand about there not being any available capacity?

 

[DarloRich]

What do they not understand about there not being any available capacity?

perhaps different rolling stock might make it possible? Perhaps they have found a way to tweak the timetable to fit? perhaps a commitment to keep people in good jobs in a marginal constituency might make the timetable work in thier favour

 

[Doctor Fegg]

What do they not understand about there not being any available capacity?

Sorry, are you saying the paths identified by Lumo’s very experienced planners are fictional? What evidence do you have for that?

 

[The Planner]

Sorry, are you saying the paths identified by Lumo’s very experienced planners are fictional? What evidence do you have for that?

Doesn't matter if they do work, if they are still detrimental to overall performance then they are still in the same position. To be fair, some of the previous WCML bids had "interesting" assumptions.

 

[NCT]

DfT had better get its hands on the spare 221s and restore the pre Covid Cross Country service level (to the extent possible).

 

[takno]

I’ve seen on Rail UK that Lumo has submitted a revised bid for its Euston - Rochdale service. Its also been published on the ORR website.

Meanwhile still no sign of the prposed LNR manchester extensions on the ORR website? Is there any update on this?

Lumo owner bids to turbo-charge UK rail with new routes - Rail UK

Lumo owner bids to turbo-charge UK rail with new routes - General Interest

railuk.com

Did they modify the First press release at all before they hit publish?

It seems like an interesting plan to me to put in the bid for a Stirling extension at the same time as a couple of other bids which are fairly certain to be strongly opposed, and before they have demonstrated any value from the initial run. Maybe they are having a last throw of the dice at remaining a reasonable-scale player in the UK market before they start laying off the corporate team. Either that or trying to get out of buying the new trains they've ordered by getting the long-term rights for Stirling denied.

 

[The Planner]

The First a group press release says

Sounds like the have found solutions to the Network Rail objections previously, so either Network Rail will have to find new objection reasons this time, or they won't have any objection to ORR this time.

Unless they have mitigated the performance risks, I am not convinced they will change NRs mind.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Part of the Lumo Stirling extension from 2030-2035 will be the likely delayed startup of HS2 services on the northern WCML.
That is a particularly sensitive spot for DfT at the moment with no plan to deal with HS2 trains on the WCML.

The context for DfT operators will change when they are all part of the GBR regime.
Competition rather withers on the vine, especially if LNR and Avanti find themselves merged operationally.

 

[waverley47]

The line in the press release, "Stirling has a large catchment area, with an estimated three million people living within an hour's drive" really tells you everything you need to know. It does a bit seem like they're clutching at straws.

 

[pdeaves]

Sorry, are you saying the paths identified by Lumo’s very experienced planners are fictional?

No, Brubulus is more likely referring to the ORR who decided last time that there was insufficient capacity, however 'perfect' the proposed paths may be. No more capacity has become available, so it's the same problem.

 

[Brubulus]

Sorry, are you saying the paths identified by Lumo’s very experienced planners are fictional? What evidence do you have for that?

They're fictional in practice. While they exist in theory, the reliability implications of using them would be catastrophic, as was previously decided by the ORR in rejecting their previous application, so I'm not sure what they're trying to achieve in resubmitting it with minor adjustments, except to militate the ORR and DfT further against Lumo, FirstGroup and the wider OA sector, which they already don't love.

 

[mike57]

I find the York Birmingham Cardiff route interesting, York Birmingham is currently overcrowded, slow because nearly everything goes through Leeds adding 20 minutes and expensive.

If this route were approved then XC would need to up their game.

I also find it intersting that Lumo as an OA operator obviously believe they can make money on this route and yet we are continually told by the DfT that there is no money to improve anything (Cynical comment: Other than the black hole that is HS2)

 

[JonathanH]

If this route were approved then XC would need to up their game.

If they are chasing the same Birmingham to Doncaster path, XC wouldn't be able to up its game.

 

[The Pelican]

I find the York Birmingham Cardiff route interesting, York Birmingham is currently overcrowded, slow because nearly everything goes through Leeds adding 20 minutes and expensive.

If this route were approved then XC would need to up their game.

I also find it intersting that Lumo as an OA operator obviously believe they can make money on this route and yet we are continually told by the DfT that there is no money to improve anything (Cynical comment: Other than the black hole that is HS2)

Of course, York to Birmingham is one of the journey options which has lost out most from the cancellation of the full HS2 "Y". It would have been high speed nearly all the way.

 

[NCT]

How many TOC planners really objectively consider all passenger and freight services and work through consequential changes including freight terminal times?

 

[FGWHST43009]

I find the York Birmingham Cardiff route interesting, York Birmingham is currently overcrowded, slow because nearly everything goes through Leeds adding 20 minutes and expensive.

If this route were approved then XC would need to up their game.

I also find it intersting that Lumo as an OA operator obviously believe they can make money on this route and yet we are continually told by the DfT that there is no money to improve anything (Cynical comment: Other than the black hole that is HS2)

I think York-Cardiff will probably work, more than likely to run via Gloucester and probably be fairly limited stop to avoid failing abstraction tests. Will probably fail if it went via Bristol Parkway. Given after December TT change the Plymouth-Edinburgh services will be slower, a faster connection from Cardiff to the North East would be welcome, even if it involves changing at York. Extending to Newcastle would be welcome but York will do if I can get a good connection with an LNER. 6 coach 222s would be more pleasant than a 4/5 car 220/221.

 

[Zomboid]

I don't see much chance of the WCML path coming off, unless it's not actually via the WCML. Cardiff - Birmingham - York could happen, though I don't think further north is likely with the state of the ECML.

 

[hexagon789]

I think York-Cardiff will probably work, more than likely to run via Gloucester and probably be fairly limited stop to avoid failing abstraction tests. Will probably fail if it went via Bristol Parkway. Given after December the Plymouth-Edinburgh services will be slower, a faster connection from Cardiff to the North East would be welcome, even if it involves changing at York. Extending to Newcastle would be welcome but York will do if I can get a good connection with an LNER. 6 coach 222s would be more pleasant than a 4/5 car 220/221.

Proposed stopping pattern is
Cardiff Central, Newport, Severn Tunnel Junction, Chepstow, Gloucester,
Cheltenham Spa, Worcestershire Parkway, Bromsgrove, Birmingham New
Street, Tamworth, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Doncaster, York.

Though Cheltenham, Worcestershire Pkwy, Bromsgrove, Tamworth and Chesterfield are not necessarily to be called at by all services.

 

[FGWHST43009]

Proposed stopping pattern is
Cardiff Central, Newport, Severn Tunnel Junction, Chepstow, Gloucester,
Cheltenham Spa, Worcestershire Parkway, Bromsgrove, Birmingham New
Street, Tamworth, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Doncaster, York.

Though Cheltenham, Worcestershire Pkwy, Bromsgrove, Tamworth and Chesterfield are not necessarily to be called at by all services.

Interesting choice, I thought they'd go for fewer stops to provide a faster Cardiff-Birmingham service. Would be interesting to see if that gets past the abstraction tests. Also I find it interesting that the application mentions reducing journey times to 4:30 when it's possible to do it quicker changing at Bristol Parkway. Going via Bristol Parkway and not calling at Gloucester, Bromsgrove, Tamworth and Chesterfield could reduce journey times to 3:45-3:50.

 

[Charlie978]

Proposed stopping pattern is
Cardiff Central, Newport, Severn Tunnel Junction, Chepstow, Gloucester,
Cheltenham Spa, Worcestershire Parkway, Bromsgrove, Birmingham New
Street, Tamworth, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Doncaster, York.

Though Cheltenham, Worcestershire Pkwy, Bromsgrove, Tamworth and Chesterfield are not necessarily to be called at by all services.

I would welcome the Chesterfield to Doncaster link, as we only get the first XC each morning and then it requires a change at Sheffield.

However, I thought the XC paths that it appears they will use north of Birmingham were taken between Sheffield and Swinton (SY) by the new Northern fast to Leeds.

 

[Snow1964]

No, Brubulus is more likely referring to the ORR who decided last time that there was insufficient capacity, however 'perfect' the proposed paths may be. No more capacity has become available, so it's the same problem.

Strictly there were some testing / driver training paths in for 805 + 807 and some of the differential speed limits hadn't been implemented at the time of previous application.

Unless those paths have disappeared into thin air, then unless anyone can explain what has replaced them, presumably a smidge of extra capacity now exists.