The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

[PGAT]

Incredible collapse of the Labour vote in Caerphilly last night, clearly demonstrating just how loathed Labour are at the moment. Of note however is the Tory vote of 2%. The two main players in British politics mustering just 13% of the vote between them. Perhaps a small sign that the days of two party politics is over, with Reform high in the polls in England and the Nationalists perhaps holding sway in Scotland and Wales. Labour of course still have time to get a grip, but are seemingly short on ideas of how to deal with the mess the country is in. Unless they shape up soon, could the door be open to a very messy and ungovernable hung Parliament?

I am of the opinion that the Labour position is unrecoverable. The recent surge of the Green party on the left will hoover up votes from Labour just like Reform did from the Conservatives and the upcoming budget I predict will be disastrous and put the final nail in the coffin for them.

 

[ainsworth74]

I am of the opinion that the Labour position is unrecoverable. The recent surge of the Green party on the left will hoover up votes from Labour just like Reform did from the Conservatives and the upcoming budget I predict will be disastrous and put the final nail in the coffin for them.

Long time yet to the next election. Still time to turn it around.

Though I doubt that they'll actually do it unless they clear house and get some different advisers in (and possibly/probably a different leader).

 

[brad465]

Incredible collapse of the Labour vote in Caerphilly last night, clearly demonstrating just how loathed Labour are at the moment. Of note however is the Tory vote of 2%. The two main players in British politics mustering just 13% of the vote between them. Perhaps a small sign that the days of two party politics is over, with Reform high in the polls in England and the Nationalists perhaps holding sway in Scotland and Wales. Labour of course still have time to get a grip, but are seemingly short on ideas of how to deal with the mess the country is in. Unless they shape up soon, could the door be open to a very messy and ungovernable hung Parliament?

I am of the opinion that the Labour position is unrecoverable. The recent surge of the Green party on the left will hoover up votes from Labour just like Reform did from the Conservatives and the upcoming budget I predict will be disastrous and put the final nail in the coffin for them.

One of two things will happen between now and the next election:

1) Voters realise small party votes are wasted under FPTP and start getting behind 2 parties again.
2) Vote shares seen at the moment are retained, but FPTP produces the most chaotic and disproportionate election result ever seen. Whoever has the most seats, there will be unparalleled chaos.

If in future we see a party head the government that has no experience of governing, plus a sizeable share of MPs with no experience of being MPs, this alone will be chaotic, even if one such party had a majority, as they'll have no idea what they're doing.

Either way, the voting system and several other aspects of our politics are well overdue upheaval.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

Incredible collapse of the Labour vote in Caerphilly last night, clearly demonstrating just how loathed Labour are at the moment. Of note however is the Tory vote of 2%. The two main players in British politics mustering just 13% of the vote between them. Perhaps a small sign that the days of two party politics is over, with Reform high in the polls in England and the Nationalists perhaps holding sway in Scotland and Wales. Labour of course still have time to get a grip, but are seemingly short on ideas of how to deal with the mess the country is in. Unless they shape up soon, could the door be open to a very messy and ungovernable hung Parliament?

They aren't going to get a grip unless they replace the leader! But even then, there are no obviously-capable candidates among the current prominent Labour politicians.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

You can change the leader, you can change policies but the problem is you can't change the electorate and at the moment a significant number of the electorate want what isn't possible and that is their problems and issues sorted out immediately.
They thought that just getting rid of the Conservatives would be some magic broom, but of course it wasn't, so now they look towards another magic broom salesman.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

You can change the leader, you can change policies but the problem is you can't change the electorate and at the moment a significant number of the electorate want what isn't possible and that is their problems and issues sorted out immediately.
They thought that just getting rid of the Conservatives would be some magic broom, but of course it wasn't, so now they look towards another magic broom salesman.

But they have long enough until the next general election to turn things round at least to an extent. Currently, they are just alienating more and more people.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

But they have long enough until the next general election to turn things round at least to an extent. Currently, they are just alienating more and more people.

The problem is that the alienation is getting to the point of being the fashionable thing. Certainly they have done a few ready foot fire things, for example the way the winter fuel issue was handled, but on the issues that are affecting people it is the case that they can't be resolved quickly. The best that can be hoped for is that things improve so people can see that they are at least moving in the right direction.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

The best that can be hoped for is that things improve so people can see that they are at least moving in the right direction.

But they aren't moving in the right direction! They don't actually seem to be moving in any consistent direction at all, just floundering around.

At least some of the electorate would be prepared to give them a chance if they appeared to have some consistent plans, even if those would take a while to be realised, but there aren't any signs of any meaningful direction currently.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

But they aren't moving in the right direction! They don't actually seem to be moving in any consistent direction at all, just floundering around.

At least some of the electorate would be prepared to give them a chance if they appeared to have some consistent plans, even if those would take a while to be realised, but there aren't any signs of any meaningful direction currently.

A problem largely caused by trying to appease focus groups instead of just doing things because you believe in them.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

A problem largely caused by trying to appease focus groups instead of just doing things because you believe in them.

Yes, indeed - but I'm by no means sure that they actually believe in anything these days!

 

[PGAT]

One of two things will happen between now and the next election:

1) Voters realise small party votes are wasted under FPTP and start getting behind 2 parties again.
2) Vote shares seen at the moment are retained, but FPTP produces the most chaotic and disproportionate election result ever seen. Whoever has the most seats, there will be unparalleled chaos.

If in future we see a party head the government that has no experience of governing, plus a sizeable share of MPs with no experience of being MPs, this alone will be chaotic, even if one such party had a majority, as they'll have no idea what they're doing.

Either way, the voting system and several other aspects of our politics are well overdue upheaval.

With the way things are going I can envision Reform and Green becoming the two major parties swapping places with the current two largest.

 

[ainsworth74]

With the way things are going I can envision Reform and Green becoming the two major parties swapping places with the current two largest.

This might be more suitable for a thread about the Green Party (do we have one?) but I reckon the Green's will start to come unstuck when they start getting awkward questions on Defence of the Realm type questions and wider international relations. That's usually where it starts to go wrong for them. Zack Polanski did a long interview with Lewis Goodall recently and had some interesting things to say but his answers on NATO and UK defence more generally were very poor compared to his answers about wider issues on the economy, poverty and environment (whether you agreed with them or not!).

My reaction to listening to the interview (as it's also available in podcast form on all good podcast players) was that he was good and I can see how he could really build the popularity and electoral success of the Greens. But he's going to have to do better on defence otherwise that will be one of those things that will likely turn enough people off voting for them to make a serious dent.

I would struggle to vote for them right now if that's their answer despite liking quite a lot of what they stand for more generally (I also have problems with their stance on nuclear energy and high-speed rail, as they are opposed to both).

 

[Falcon1200]

Doubt it had much effect on the result, and given that it was a by-election, the turnout was just 50.4% - Nearly half of those eligible could not be bothered to vote!

 

[brad465]

Doubt it had much effect on the result, and given that it was a by-election, the turnout was just 50.4% - Nearly half of those eligible could not be bothered to vote!

For a by-election, especially a non-Westminster one, that's actually a high turnout.

 

[KevinBrum12]

I think it will be more likely the Lib Dems will replace Labour as the Centre/Left Party and Reform as the Right Party. There is a massive hole in the body politic for a One Nation/Centre Right Party, given that the Tories have abandoned that section of the electorate.

 

[Richard Scott]

Long time yet to the next election. Still time to turn it around.

Though I doubt that they'll actually do it unless they clear house and get some different advisers in (and possibly/probably a different leader).

Also need to sort their financial policies. When there's grants available for things like electric cars and on other hand are saying taxes may need to increase I'm afraid you won't be getting my vote. Priorities over things that may be nice to have needed here.

 

[KevinBrum12]

End Of The Keir Show: How Senior Labour Figures Now Believe Starmer Is Already Toast: SOURCE The Huffington Post

According to this piece Starmer has hardly been in the House of Commons and has only voted four times, all on the same day.

Sounds like we might be having a new Prime Minister and Chancellor for Christmas.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think it will be more likely the Lib Dems will replace Labour as the Centre/Left Party and Reform as the Right Party. There is a massive hole in the body politic for a One Nation/Centre Right Party, given that the Tories have abandoned that section of the electorate.

The protest vote against the two main Westminster parties will vary across the UK.
Plaid may well prevail in Wales and the SNP in Scotland, but Reform looks strong in the east and north of England while the Lib Dems could prevail in the south and west of England.
That makes a future Westminster parliament very difficult to predict, but "no overall control" is likely.

The next question is who will be the "grown up" party with expertise in actually running the country and balancing the books.
Not Reform or the nationalist parties, I think.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

The next question is who will be the "grown up" party with expertise in actually running the country and balancing the books.

The performance of the previous Tory government and the current Labour one might suggest that there aren't any parties with this expertise!

 

[Richard Scott]

The performance of the previous Tory government and the current Labour one might suggest that there aren't any parties with this expertise!

This is a big problem, politicians with experience and a vision seem very thin on the ground, if they exist at all.

 

[brad465]

This is a big problem, politicians with experience and a vision seem very thin on the ground, if they exist at all.

This has been said before, including by myself, but good and talented people do not go into politics in the current climate, when several other professions not only pay better, but come with lower levels of responsibility and public visibility (the latter in politics is usually a drawback). This includes being tarnished with several negative stereotypes about MPs and Westminster that good-natured people do well to avoid. This in turn means it's mostly incompetent and naive people who go into politics, which reinforces the aforementioned problems, creating a feedback loop.

I do actually think the country needs to actually stop what it's doing for a moment, sit down and work out all the inner problems we're facing right now. We could do with a government of national unity that works to radically reform the political system and take out all the problem parts, and replace them with things that work based on evidence. Then after that, maybe we'll have a culture that attracts the right people and behaviour, which in turn makes the country much better. I expect this will not happen under the current government, and probably won't happen until the next government comes in and makes an even bigger mess to the point people finally wake up and see "this isn't working".

 

[Harpo]

I do actually think the country needs to actually stop what it's doing for a moment, sit down and work out all the inner problems we're facing right now. We could do with a government of national unity that works to radically reform the political system and take out all the problem parts, and replace them with things that work based on evidence. Then after that, maybe we'll have a culture that attracts the right people and behaviour, which in turn makes the country much better.

Eminently sensible but it needs ‘the country’, AKA the electorate, to be capable of reasoned critical thinking to create that along with a parliament full of competent big figures in all parties to enact it.

So, two reasons why it’s an elusive vision.

 

[KevinBrum12]

First past the post and a lack of education about politics and democracy does not help.

For example, the real power to cause an upset and deliver a verdict on a political leader in the UK, only lies with the voters in the constituency of that leader. If the voters of Uxbridge had tactically voted for the candidate most likely to beat Boris Johnson in 2019 and those who could not stand Bozo rallied round that candidate, the Conservatives may have won the election. but would have needed to find a new leader PDQ to have the confidence of the House of Commons.

This would have caused chaos for a few weeks and dragged politics over the Christmas period of 2019 thanks to Bozo calling a December election. However, we might have started 2020 with someone competent running the country, as well as avoiding the worst excesses of Johnson during COVID. Conversely, we could have ended up with Gavin Williamson or Liz Truss in the hot-seat at Downing Street in 2020!

 

[oldman]

I do actually think the country needs to actually stop what it's doing for a moment, sit down and work out all the inner problems we're facing right now.

What is the country doing that it needs to actually stop, and what are the inner problems? It would be difficult to get agreement on the question, never mind an answer.

Not much has changed since the election (change is a slow process), but the media, controlled by the right-wing press, has successfully created a climate of failure and doom in which prices are spiralling out of control, we are being taxed to the hilt and overrun by migrants, and so on. Talk about a government of national unity is actually supporting that narrative.

 

[KevinBrum12]

Not much has changed since the election (change is a slow process), but the media, controlled by the right-wing press, has successfully created a climate of failure and doom in which prices are spiralling out of control, we are being taxed to the hilt and overrun by migrants, and so on. Talk about a government of national unity is actually supporting that narrative.

Talk of a "Government of National Unity" evokes the "National" Government that sat until 1940 under Neville Chamberlain and the wartime Government of Churchill and Attlee from 1940-1945.

The "National" Government of Chamberlain was a sticking plaster over a broken country. There are parallels with today. A shortage of affordable housing, with council tenants organising rent strikes taking place in cities like Birmingham. Unhappiness with the public services, especially hospitals which people were paying insurance for (there being no "free at the point of use" NHS in Chamberlains Britain). The demonisation of immigrants by the likes of Mosley and the Daily Mail even though it must have been obvious from the reports Chamberlain was receiving from British ambassadors in Europe why so many were heading to the United Kingdom. Trying to buy time, knowing the country could not have fought a war with Germany or the Soviet Union with the resources available to it in 1935.

And in a further parallel with today, a Prime Minister having to manage the public revulsion after a black sheep in the Royal Family was revealed.

 

[oldman]

Again the 'broken country' narrative. There are problems - to me the big one is welfare, we want more than we are willing to pay for - but for most people society still functions OK, in spite of the media.

As a matter of history the 1930s national government was really a Tory government, national in name only. They had successfully conned Ramsay Macdonald into a coaltion, much as they conned Clegg in 2010. In the national interest, of course.

And there was no public revulsion against Edward 8 wanting to marry a divorcee. Moral disapproval from some, support from others.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As a matter of history the 1930s national government was really a Tory government, national in name only. They had successfully conned Ramsay Macdonald into a coaltion, much as they conned Clegg in 2010. In the national interest, of course.

And there was no public revulsion against Edward 8 wanting to marry a divorcee. Moral disapproval from some, support from others.

Edward/David was a Nazi sympathiser though (as were many then, like Mosley), and on the other side there were Stalin idealists.

 

[JamieL]

More doom and gloom on the economy. This time reports that productivity are down:

Reeves could face £20bn Budget hole as UK productivity downgraded

The OBR is understood to have downgraded the UK's productivity level in early Budget forecasts

www.bbc.co.uk

The downgrade to productivity performance from the government's official forecaster could lead to a £20bn gap in the public finances on its own, the BBC understands.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will deliver its final draft forecast, showing the output of the economy per hour worked, to the Treasury on Friday.

I can't help but feel Labour is killing the economy. They inherited an awful situation for sure, but their inability to get a grip of public spending has compounded everything. They had some fair proposals for savings but lacked the political skill and endurance to get them through. The result is more tax hikes, reduced willingness to be productive, a shrinking economy and thus the need for more tax hikes.

I had high hopes for this Labour Government- but they have turned out to be awful.

 

[Falcon1200]

I did not have particularly high hopes for Labour, but who else could I vote for?!! Not the Tories after their reign, I will never vote for Reform or a Scottish Independence-supporting party thus ruling out the SNP, Alba and the Greens, and the Lib-Dems would be a wasted vote.

Labour have however turned out to be worse than I ever imagined, after their failure to control spending and what, despite manifesto promises, will no doubt be job and prosperity-destroying tax rises in the Budget.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

I did not have particularly high hopes for Labour, but who else could I vote for?!! Not the Tories after their reign, I will never vote for Reform or a Scottish Independence-supporting party thus ruling out the SNP, Alba and the Greens, and the Lib-Dems would be a wasted vote.

Labour have however turned out to be worse than I ever imagined, after their failure to control spending and what, despite manifesto promises, will no doubt be job and prosperity-destroying tax rises in the Budget.

I was expecting them to be bad, but they've been even worse than expected. While they did inherit problems, the time when they can blame the previous government has long since passed now, and it's clear that they are completely devoid of any ideas and are floundering around.

For the first time in many years I did not vote Labour at the last election as there really was no way I could vote for a party led by such a lack-lustre politician as Starmer.