TfL possible long term funding settlement @ June Spending Review

[Edvid]

I wonder why it's 2026-2027 and 2029-2030 for funding, what's happening in 2027-2028?

It means April 2026 - March 2030. So that's £550m/year* on average.

* Slightly different quote elsewhere in the SR (difference of £200m):

• Providing the largest multi-year settlement for London in over a decade, with £2.2 billion of funding between 2026-27 and 2029-30 for Transport for London’s capital renewals programme.

 

[Thirteen]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bakerloo order will be announced once the new Piccadilly Line trains are in service. Not sure about the trams as I believe the procurement process is still ongoing but I think they said it'll be announced who won the tender early next year.

 

[OneTrackMinded]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bakerloo order will be announced once the new Piccadilly Line trains. Not sure about the trams as I believe the procurement process is still ongoing but I think they said it'll be announced who won the tender early next year.

Once the new Piccadilly Line trains what?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Jun 2025 ==

From reading some comments from Andy Lord, it looks like the Piccadilly Line new signalling won't be happening, which is a shame.

He says:

And it will mean that we can complete the introduction of new trains on the Piccadilly line and DLR and new signalling on 40 per cent of the Tube, can procure a new tram fleet, progress discussions on new Bakerloo line trains and can get to work on renewing some of London’s critical roads, tunnels and flyovers.

No mention of Piccadilly Line new signalling.

 

[Eurostarosaur]

Does "progress discussions on Bakerloo line trains" mean they will order them?

 

[bramling]

Once the new Piccadilly Line trains what?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Jun 2025 ==

From reading some comments from Andy Lord, it looks like the Piccadilly Line new signalling won't be happening, which is a shame.

TfL have got themselves into a difficult position over the Piccadilly Line, as the Thales CBTC system is essentially the only viable product. This isn’t ideal from a bargaining point of view. It absolutely wouldn’t surprise me to see Picc Line resignalling merely placed in the “too difficult” and “someone else’s problem” boxes.

 

[JonathanH]

That would cost £1 billion yeah?

Piccadilly line was apparently £1.5bn for 94 trainsets, but in current terms is no doubt more than that. How many Bakerloo trainsets are needed? Would it actually be an increase on the current fleet size? 36 would still hopefully be less than £1bn.

 

[Thirteen]

Piccadilly line was apparently £1.5bn for 94 trainsets. How many Bakerloo trainsets are needed? Would it actually be an increase on the current fleet size? 36 would hopefully be less than £1bn.

They'd need more than 36 if the BLE gets the greenlight. I think they wanted to have 40 Bakerloo Line trains but they'd have to upgrade the depots to do so,

 

[Edvid]

Does "progress discussions on Bakerloo line trains" mean they will order them?

If funding for new Bakerloo trains was secured they'd say so. The quote suggests they're closer to getting there but further talks will be needed.

As a reminder - from March last year (Mayor's Question Time):

The existing Deep Tube rolling stock contract with Siemens currently being used for the Piccadilly line upgrade programme contains options for the Bakerloo, Central and Waterloo & City lines. The cut-off date for exercising the option for the Bakerloo line and avoiding an extended break in production is 1 November 2026. Prior to this, Transport for London will need a commitment for capital funding to allow us to begin essential supporting infrastructure and depot works required for the new trains with a commitment from Government sought by Spring 2025 to enable us to begin procurement activities in these areas.

 

[rebmcr]

Piccadilly line was apparently £1.5bn for 94 trainsets

Without signalling upgrades, perhaps a dozen or so of those can be diverted to the Bakerloo (before being built to Piccadilly spec).

 

[Russel]

Without signalling upgrades, perhaps a dozen or so of those can be diverted to the Bakerloo (before being built to Piccadilly spec).

Wikipedia states there are 87 sets of 73 stock, so if you divert 12 of the new trains to the Bakerloo, you end up with 82 new trains to replace 87 old trains...

Not sure how realistic that proposal is.

 

[OneTrackMinded]

Without signalling upgrades, perhaps a dozen or so of those can be diverted to the Bakerloo (before being built to Piccadilly spec).

94 trains is the amount for the existing signalling - if CBTC was implemented then an order for some additional would be put in (according to pre-existing plans)

 

[Geogregor]

Reply from the TfL to the spending review:

TfL Statement - Response to Spending Review Settlement

News for media and press

tfl-newsroom.prgloo.com

It will allow us to deliver a programme of sustainable investment, aligning our suppliers around a longer-term programme. And it will mean that we can complete the introduction of new trains on the Piccadilly line and DLR and new signalling on 40 per cent of the Tube, can procure a new tram fleet, progress discussions on new Bakerloo line trains and can get to work on renewing some of London’s critical roads, tunnels and flyovers.

"Progress discussions", make of it what you will...

 

[OneTrackMinded]

Reply from the TfL to the spending review:

TfL Statement - Response to Spending Review Settlement

News for media and press

tfl-newsroom.prgloo.com

"Progress discussions", make of it what you will...

Surely that's just a fancy way of saying they're going to start the preparations. They have until November 2026 to order them.

 

[Sonic1234]

The fact is that low income people living in outer zones of London are penalised with incredibly high fares, now around £14 return in peak time from zone 6 into zone 1

And differs depending on the mode of travel. Someone in North London Zone 6 using the tube to get into the centre will pay less than someone in South London using National Rail (and it's even worse if its "mixed mode": National Rail and Tube)

 

[Nym]

Piccadilly line was apparently £1.5bn for 94 trainsets, but in current terms is no doubt more than that. How many Bakerloo trainsets are needed? Would it actually be an increase on the current fleet size? 36 would still hopefully be less than £1bn.

One also needs to consider the current depots could not maintain this new type of train.

 

[Thirteen]

The preferred supplier for the Trams won’t be announced until Spring 2026 but I assume that since it’s not bespoke, it’ll take less time to manufacture and be tested.

 

[Nym]

The preferred supplier for the Trams won’t be announced until Spring 2026 but I assume that since it’s not bespoke, it’ll take less time to manufacture and be tested.

It's not bespoke until TfL get their mits on the spec and add in loads of style choices rather than just going to the likes of Alstom, CAF or Stadler and saying, "30 of them plz, that length."

 

[boiledbeans2]

Why should TfL have to keep trying to fund everything from fares when most other networks in the world get government support?

How does farebox recovery ratio relate to the above diagram?

According to wiki, farebox recovery ratio is defined as "fraction of operating expenses which are met by the fare paid by passengers"

Farebox recovery ratio - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

LU is at 129% in the page above, which means the fares more than fully cover the operating expenses.

 

[Geogregor]

How does farebox recovery ratio relate to the above diagram?

According to wiki, farebox recovery ratio is defined as "fraction of operating expenses which are met by the fare paid by passengers"

Farebox recovery ratio - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

LU is at 129% in the page above, which means the fares more than fully cover the operating expenses.

I think the graph, despite the title, shows the whole of TfL, not just underground. LU has surplus but it covers for deficits in other parts of the TfL

 

[Thirteen]

The Elizabeth Line must generate a surplus as well. I think it's buses and the Tram which has deficits.

 

[ScotGG]

Buses generally have the biggest deficits and also stagnant ridership plus rising tender costs at the moment.

Tube and Liz line bring in money. Not sure about rail overall. DLR might have but currently a bit of a sticky situation with new train delays.

 

[GFE]

Suspect the Bus tender costs include the capital cost of the buses (amortised over the contract period) and these are going up as a result of the Mayors policy to actively/rapidly transfer to using electric vehicles.
Does anyone know how much of the £2 Billion is needed to pay for ongoing contracts/Projects? (Picc trains, Picc Infrastructure works, DLR upgrade, 4LM signalling etc ) then we can perhaps calculate what is available to pay for new project work undertaken during that period (ie BLU enabling/design)

 

[TrenHotel]

London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan has been told that Transport for London fares should rise by the RPI rate of inflation – currently 4.3 per cent – plus one per cent in each of 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029. This is in return for TfL receiving almost £2.2bn of cash in the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s comprehensive spending review earlier this month to spend on infrastructure over the next four years.

Londoners face above-inflation Tube fare hikes for next FOUR YEARS

Exclusive: Transport Secretary tells mayor annual fare rises are expected until end of the decade in return for £2.2bn of Government support

www.standard.co.uk

 

[NCT]

Londoners face above-inflation Tube fare hikes for next FOUR YEARS

Exclusive: Transport Secretary tells mayor annual fare rises are expected until end of the decade in return for £2.2bn of Government support

www.standard.co.uk

As a payer of TfL fares, I can't say I disagree with HMG. The 2016 fares freeze made DfT-set season fares unattractive and ultimately resulted in TfL losing revenue. In general an all-day should be 2 peak singles, and a weekly should be 4 all days. TfL's ratios are way off. Also the £1.75 bus fares are simply unsustainable.

 

[OneTrackMinded]

As a payer of TfL fares, I can't say I disagree with HMG. The 2016 fares freeze made DfT-set season fares unattractive and ultimately resulted in TfL losing revenue. In general an all-day should be 2 peak singles, and a weekly should be 4 all days. TfL's ratios are way off. Also the £1.75 bus fares are simply unsustainable.

London has the most expensive fares in the world….

 

[NCT]

Paris fares are just hidden in higher taxes especially employer taxes.

 

[signed]

Paris fares are just hidden in higher taxes especially employer taxes.

Even if you doubled the Paris fares to account for the employer 50% and others, you still wouldn't break the 200€/month for full network, which is extremely cheap compared to a Z1-6 TC (which is £313, 365.38€)

A Swiss GA Travelcard for the whole country is only 2x the price of a Z1-6 annual

 

[Thirteen]

I fully expect bus and tram fares to increase from 2026.

 

[NCT]

Even if you doubled the Paris fares to account for the employer 50% and others, you still wouldn't break the 200€/month for full network, which is extremely cheap compared to a Z1-6 TC (which is £313, 365.38€)

A Swiss GA Travelcard for the whole country is only 2x the price of a Z1-6 annual

Switzerland the same population as Greater London.

If you measure your utility as a function of the size of market accessed rather than the physical distance you travel to access the said market, then in London you pay half of what you pay in Switzerland for the same privilege.

 

[JonathanH]

In general an all-day should be 2 peak singles, and a weekly should be 4 all days.

The all day was set to one-fifth of the weekly price to avoid discriminating against part time workers. That principle is now largely set in stone.

From outer zones, the all-day currently caps two NR scale peak journeys but not two LU scale peak journeys. The all day cap is only defined for zone 1 centric travel, whereas weekly capping applies for a wider range of zonal combinations.