UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[Sun Chariot]

I'm guilty of not being up to speed with this thread and all the posts on it.

The posts I have read, are focused on the EV infrastructure and EV vehicles.
My question, though, is about the effect on HM Treasury's revenue streams.

Fiscal Year 2023-24, UK fuel duty receipts totalled £24.83bn. That is a slight drop on the previous year's fuel duty receipts of £25.1bn.
More EVs and fewer ICEs surely = less fuel duty revenue? Less fuel duty revenue surely means taxes created or raised elsewhere, to meet the shortfall?

I believe "pay per mile" taxation model has been taken off the agenda, for now, by all UK political parties. I've not found any clear info on how HM Treasury's revenue gap will be closed.
All information I found via online searches, is speculative not concrete.

Does any reader know more?

 

[AM9]

I'm guilty of not being up to speed with this thread and all the posts on it.

The posts I have read, are focused on the EV infrastructure and EV vehicles.
My question, though, is about the effect on HM Treasury's revenue streams.

Fiscal Year 2023-24, UK fuel duty receipts totalled £24.83bn. That is a slight drop on the previous year's fuel duty receipts of £25.1bn.
More EVs and fewer ICEs surely = less fuel duty revenue? Less fuel duty revenue surely means taxes created or raised elsewhere, to meet the shortfall?

I believe "pay per mile" taxation model has been taken off the agenda, for now, by all UK political parties. I've not found any clear info on how HM Treasury's revenue gap will be closed.
All information I found via online searches, is speculative not concrete.

Does any reader know more?

A charge that is not proportional to the usage of the road system is as likely to be objected to as a charge per mile is. Why should non-driving members of the public pay for the upkeep of roads over and above that effectively levied through general taxation?

 

[Backroom_boy]

I'm guilty of not being up to speed with this thread and all the posts on it.

The posts I have read, are focused on the EV infrastructure and EV vehicles.
My question, though, is about the effect on HM Treasury's revenue streams.

Fiscal Year 2023-24, UK fuel duty receipts totalled £24.83bn. That is a slight drop on the previous year's fuel duty receipts of £25.1bn.
More EVs and fewer ICEs surely = less fuel duty revenue? Less fuel duty revenue surely means taxes created or raised elsewhere, to meet the shortfall?

I believe "pay per mile" taxation model has been taken off the agenda, for now, by all UK political parties. I've not found any clear info on how HM Treasury's revenue gap will be closed.
All information I found via online searches, is speculative not concrete.

Does any reader know more?

'Taken off the agenda *for now*'; remember medium term for politicians is about two news cycles ahead, long term is the next election. IMHO it's going to be either a pay per mile scheme or its metering of power usage on each vehicle.

I'm also not up to speed on this; I'd have expected to see bigger differentials on the VED car tax but they are reducing if anything (electric vehicles paying VED for the first time next year) and is there still a purchase tax on (apart from VAT) cars? I would have thought a massive increase of that for ice vehicles was on the cards. It's almost as though the Chancellor doesn't really know what they are doing....

 

[Sun Chariot]

'Taken off the agenda *for now*'; remember medium term for politicians is about two news cycles ahead, long term is the next election. IMHO it's going to be either a pay per mile scheme or its metering of power usage on each vehicle...

We think alike on those points. I was being deliberately coy in my choice of words.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Dec 2024 ==

A charge that is not proportional to the usage of the road system is as likely to be objected to as a charge per mile is. Why should non-driving members of the public pay for the upkeep of roads over and above that effectively levied through general taxation?

I totally agree and that's why I'm surprised at how little info I found in the public domain.

 

[Bald Rick]

Fiscal Year 2023-24, UK fuel duty receipts totalled £24.83bn. That is a slight drop on the previous year's fuel duty receipts of £25.1bn.

+20% VAT on top of that.

It will be pay per mile. The only question is how ‘smart’ it will be, ie will the charges vary by geogrpahy and time.

 

[johncrossley]

Forget about the UK government, for now, as the UK is far too conservative to be a world leader. Is any other major country seriously considering replacing fuel duty with pay per km road pricing?

 

[Backroom_boy]

Forget about the UK government, for now, as the UK is far too conservative to be a world leader. Is any other major country seriously considering replacing fuel duty with pay per km road pricing?

Any other country saying they are banning ice cars?

 

[Bald Rick]

Any other country saying they are banning ice cars?

Just 59 countries, including China, India and all of Europe. Singapore bans the sale of new Diesel cars from next week.

Wikipedia has a good list of what’s what.

 

[Backroom_boy]

Just 59 countries, including China, India and all of Europe. Singapore bans the sale of new Diesel cars from next week.

Wikipedia has a good list of what’s what.

So I assume they all will be working on some sort of usage based pricing

 

[MotCO]

So I assume they all will be working on some sort of usage based pricing

Or do some countries not have the equivalent of Road Fund Tax? Obviously some have toll roads. They may tax in other ways.

 

[jon0844]

I can't see pay per mile being easy to implement. Cars don't have the tech installed, and it needs to be impossible to hack. Otherwise it will be easy to avoid paying and we'll just establish a whole underground market where people will 'chip' their cars - and of course the cars need to be fitted with the systems first. Of course it can be done, but it would likely cost a fortune and take years - with the risk of fraud.

 

[RailWonderer]

I can't see pay per mile being easy to implement. Cars don't have the tech installed, and it needs to be impossible to hack. Otherwise it will be easy to avoid paying and we'll just establish a whole underground market where people will 'chip' their cars - and of course the cars need to be fitted with the systems first. Of course it can be done, but it would likely cost a fortune and take years - with the risk of fraud.

There are also ethical concerns. It would be like only allowing new computers sold in the UK to be pre installed with phone home malware to report power usage to the government. Most realistically they could tax the charging points more but it would still not equal fuel duty.

They could introduce more toll roads to make up the difference.

 

[johncrossley]

I suppose there is the German HGV toll system which charges per km and has been in operation for some years now, although it only operates on main highways. Denmark is introducing a similar scheme in a week's time.

 

[HSTEd]

Any taxation system comes with risk of fraud.

Of the various options the MOT-odometer check seems the most practical to me.
It's certainly the least likely to collapse into yet another government IT scandal.

 

[Peter Sarf]

...................................

No it doesn't. It only needs to cover the range that you can sensibly drove without a break. Call that 3 hours on the motorway, so 200 miles real range (80%-10%) is adequate, or circa 300 mile 100%-0% range. Anything else is just a comfort blanket unless you need a bigger battery for towing a caravan etc.

But how long would be required for each charging stop ?. Also I do like to keep plenty "in the tank" for emergencies.

I can't see pay per mile being easy to implement. Cars don't have the tech installed, and it needs to be impossible to hack. Otherwise it will be easy to avoid paying and we'll just establish a whole underground market where people will 'chip' their cars - and of course the cars need to be fitted with the systems first. Of course it can be done, but it would likely cost a fortune and take years - with the risk of fraud.

What could happen is ANPR data being used to match the pay per mile devices records. If you could hack the pay-per-mile device to lose journeys BUT ANPR showed you were on a particular road then alarm bells would ring. Relies on the pay-per-mile device recording whole routes not just the number of miles travelled.

Any taxation system comes with risk of fraud.

Of the various options the MOT-odometer check seems the most practical to me.
It's certainly the least likely to collapse into yet another government IT scandal.

Yes, can also match the pay-per-mile device against any ANPR records.

As an aside - anyone believe that the state would replace road tax with pay per mile ?.
I suspect it would be both - particularly for ICE !. A bit harsh on those of us that do a very low mileage.

 

[jon0844]

There aren't enough ANPR cameras to effectively charge everyone per mile, but perhaps more of a zonal type charge. More congestion zones all over the UK?

How serious is a pay per mile scheme? It needs to be secure and accurate and all cars would need the equipment fitted, including ones on the road already.

Or is it much a conspiracy theory just because the idea has been investigated in the past? The same conspiracy theorists that told us we'd remain in lockdown forever after a made up virus and LTNs will stop us leaving our home towns or estates.

Wouldn't it be easier to just levy a higher annual fee on EVs based on their motor output or average efficiency, or something including the weight of the vehicle. Or the mileage reading taken at regular intervals, such as an MOT or service.

There's going to be lost revenue that needs replacing but I'm not convinced it is pay per mile anytime soon.

 

[778]

I read it as a consultation to bring forward the current 2035 date to 2030 in line with the Labour manifesto.

Personally I expect the consultation to conclude that it will stay at 2035.

If it does get moved back to 2030 would you expect EVs to outnumber ICE cars on the road in 10 years time? If it stays at 2035 it would probably take another 15 years for EVs to take over.

 

[HSTEd]

If it does get moved back to 2030 would you expect EVs to outnumber ICE cars on the road in 10 years time? If it stays at 2035 it would probably take another 15 years for EVs to take over.

A substantial fraction of vehicles will be electric by 2035 whatever happens.
After all, ~35% of car sales registrations in November were plug-in (~25% BEV and ~10% plug in hybrids).

 

[johncrossley]

It needs to be secure and accurate and all cars would need the equipment fitted, including ones on the road already.

Doesn't the German HGV scheme overcome these issues?

 

[dcbwhaley]

There's going to be lost revenue that needs replacing but I'm not convinced it is pay per mile anytime soon.

Why does the lost revenue need to be recovered by another tax specific to vehicles?
Could be recovered by an increase in general taxation

 

[jon0844]

Why does the lost revenue need to be recovered by another tax specific to vehicles?
Could be recovered by an increase in general taxation

Yes it could, and indeed it might. Quite likely it should.

While every car on the road today is very advanced (even the Dacia Spring) there would need to be a industry-wide standard, with proper security/encryption, and a means of enforcing things. And what would the cost be per mile? Would it change at different times of the day? Would it be a net benefit after the huge cost of implementation?

Has such a scheme been successfully implemented anywhere else in the world and how much did it cost and how long did it take? There are many that think the London Mayor will just spring something into life to punish Londoners and visitors, but no evidence of any plans being more than consultations that likely brought up the same issues as me, and many more that I haven't considered.

 

[HSTEd]

Yes it could, and indeed it might. Quite likely it should.

While every car on the road today is very advanced (even the Dacia Spring) there would need to be a industry-wide standard, with proper security/encryption, and a means of enforcing things. And what would the cost be per mile? Would it change at different times of the day? Would it be a net benefit after the huge cost of implementation?

Has such a scheme been successfully implemented anywhere else in the world and how much did it cost and how long did it take? There are many that think the London Mayor will just spring something into life to punish Londoners and visitors, but no evidence of any plans being more than consultations that likely brought up the same issues as me, and many more that I haven't considered.

Well vehicles already have to have a method of recording how far they are traveled.
Currently there are various cases where "clocking" is permitted, which is why it is actually possible. In any case it is very difficult to do in a way that is not detectable.

If those edge cases are eliminated, and clocking is outright forbidden, then the odometer and MOT check model would allow a price per mile to be levied.
It wouldn't change based on time of day, but it could be changed based on type of vehicle if desired.

 

[Harpers Tate]

But how long would be required for each charging stop ?

In ideal circumstances (i.e. a fast charging car, as many newer models are; and a high powered outlet) then you can add ~200 miles (so, another 3 hours on the road; or enough to make a 300 mile car into a 500 mile car) in around 20 minutes. 20 minutes during which - for at least a good part of that time - you can be taking a physical needs break and/or refreshments; things you'd likely need to do anyway. In which case it's only 20 minutes "gross". It may be only a few minutes or zero, even, "Net". And, of course, you don't need to expend time adding liquid fuel as a separate activity - even if less frequently.

It's different thinking. It's arranging to do two things (one of which is recharging the car, and the other is something you'd do anyway) in parallel that reduces time actually wasted. It's using every opportunity to add charge, even if it isn't currently needed, when such an opportunity arises. So doing will save time at the next stop. Such as (hypothetical) you stop en route to buy gifts for whoever you are visiting or groceries for use at your destination or whatever. If you can - charge while you are doing so.

Inability or unwillingness in some to adopt different thinking is very probably the biggest single obstacle to wider EV use.

 

[trebor79]

But how long would be required for each charging stop ?. Also I do like to keep plenty "in the tank" for emergencies.

My average this year has been 12 minutes (except when on an AC charger in a car park overnight or all day).
No need to keep anything "in the tank" when there's an abundance of chargers.

 

[renegademaster]

It'd be silly to make a decision on a problem that won't be relevant for half a decade at least(replacing road tax). The Exchequer could look very different by then. Likely the EU would make a system and we'd use it not to add any extra expense

 

[Peter Sarf]

Why does the lost revenue need to be recovered by another tax specific to vehicles?
Could be recovered by an increase in general taxation

I think it is a matter of getting road vehicle users to pay for the roads they use. It is then a matter of how that is achieved. I think the current road tax is a blunt instrument and it does not reward light use of the road network. Fuel tax will demise unless we are prepared to tax heavily for all electricity consumption so using electricity to cook your food, light your home etc etc will rise sharply - not likely to be acceptable !.

In ideal circumstances (i.e. a fast charging car, as many newer models are; and a high powered outlet) then you can add ~200 miles (so, another 3 hours on the road; or enough to make a 300 mile car into a 500 mile car) in around 20 minutes. 20 minutes during which - for at least a good part of that time - you can be taking a physical needs break and/or refreshments; things you'd likely need to do anyway. In which case it's only 20 minutes "gross". It may be only a few minutes or zero, even, "Net". And, of course, you don't need to expend time adding liquid fuel as a separate activity - even if less frequently.

It's different thinking. It's arranging to do two things (one of which is recharging the car, and the other is something you'd do anyway) in parallel that reduces time actually wasted. It's using every opportunity to add charge, even if it isn't currently needed, when such an opportunity arises. So doing will save time at the next stop. Such as (hypothetical) you stop en route to buy gifts for whoever you are visiting or groceries for use at your destination or whatever. If you can - charge while you are doing so.

Inability or unwillingness in some to adopt different thinking is very probably the biggest single obstacle to wider EV use.

I do use motorway service stations but never pay their prices for petrol. I wonder if the charges for an electric charge will be more reasonable ?. Currently not apparently. I would be one of those wanting to use every opportunity to charge BUT I do not want to pay over the normal price !.

My average this year has been 12 minutes (except when on an AC charger in a car park overnight or all day).
No need to keep anything "in the tank" when there's an abundance of chargers.

My re-assurance is if I get stuck in a traffic jam. Not going to get a charge if stuck in a jam on the motorway for an hour or two. Not going to be able to walk down the road with a Jerry can full of motion lotion.

It'd be silly to make a decision on a problem that won't be relevant for half a decade at least(replacing road tax). The Exchequer could look very different by then. Likely the EU would make a system and we'd use it not to add any extra expense

Yes it would make sense to stick with the European standard BUT we will like to think we are different. One difference is we already have a lot less toll roads.

 

[MotCO]

Well vehicles already have to have a method of recording how far they are traveled.

What about miles travelled abroad? Should they be excluded?

 

[trebor79]

I
My re-assurance is if I get stuck in a traffic jam. Not going to get a charge if stuck in a jam on the motorway for an hour or two. Not going to be able to walk down the road with a Jerry can full of motion lotion.

Yeah but you also aren't going to use any battery in a traffic jam! Even with the climate control on it'll use only circa 1% per hours.
You need to stop thinking with a petrol mindset where in a traffic jam you have the choice of cook/freeze of waste loads of fuel.

 

[HSTEd]

What about miles travelled abroad? Should they be excluded?

Doing so would likely require an official to check your odometer on exit and entry, which would impose significant additional costs and complexity.
What fraction of the car fleet regularly travels abroad?

 

[Mawkie]

But how long would be required for each charging stop ?

I was watching a video the other day where they referred to charging times in a way that put it into perspective for me - the latest Tesla can charge at 500 miles per hour!