I understand it's slightly more than the 60 10-cars that are required, around 65.Wondering how many 701s are required for the current timetable really is not off-topic at all. So if anyone can answer that would be great.
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Class 701 'Aventra' trains for South Western Railway: progress updates
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Invincible
Member
Think it was some of the 30 5 car trains would often work as 10 car.
There is pressure from employers to get all workers back to 5 day working from offices.
In no great rush to get back to the office? UK home workers may not have a choice
Supermarket chain Asda has joined the growing number of firms demanding staff return to the workplace. Does this signal the end for remote working or is it a new battle line?
www.theguardian.com
Also there is Christmas shopping and tourism.
Should also bring in more ticket revenue so the DfT subsidy should reduce.
So hard to predict.
Unless AI rapidly kills off office work wont general economic and population growth inevitably take commuting back to pre pandemic levels?
Goldfish62
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Hybrid working is now embedded. Commuter numbers on SWR were already in slow long term decline before Covid (and the guards dispute) despite economic and population growth. Sure, there are isolated sectors and some companies which are trying to force a return to work, but reportedly they're being hit with resignations as people move move to other jobs which offer hybrid working.
TfL is on course to make an unbudgeted loss this year because of passenger growth unexpectedly flatling.
To quote TfL's Chief Finance Officer:
Has the post-pandemic return to the office stalled?
Passenger numbers only 1% higher than a year ago
www.standard.co.uk
So don't expect all the 701s to ever be needed on all the services for which they were originally intended. That ship sailed some years ago.
It's leisure and business travel which are the growth areas now.
The areas which need extra capacity are the suburban and Windsor routes. I think the big decline has been on the outer routes to Portsmouth etc. They need a pre Covid timetable brought back as trains are bursting in the AM peak through Wimbledon and Putney etc, With loads of new housing going up around Wandsworth town, the station is getting busier and busierHybrid working is now embedded. Commuter numbers on SWR were already in slow long term decline before Covid (and the guards dispute) despite economic and population growth. Sure, there are isolated sectors and some companies which are trying to force a return to work, but reportedly they're being hit with resignations as people move move to other jobs which offer hybrid working.
TfL is on course to make an unbudgeted loss this year because of passenger growth unexpectedly flatling.
To quote TfL's Chief Finance Officer:
Has the post-pandemic return to the office stalled?
Passenger numbers only 1% higher than a year ago
So don't expect all the 701s to ever be needed on all the services for which they were originally intended. That ship sailed some years ago.
It's leisure and business travel which are the growth areas now.
meld3
Member
If SWR don't need say 20 x 701/5 units, they will surely follow the 707's and reduce the SE tender to replace 455's.
gabrielhj07
Established Member
I bet SE would love another micro-fleet.
Wont hybrid working reductions to longer distance SWR commuting be counteracted to some extent by an increase due to hybrid working - not having to go in so often makes it more attractive to live further away. Plus the significant residential developments going in around those stations.
OneTrackMinded
Member
[deleted, previous source page missing]
Last edited:
So around 13% of training done
boiledbeans2
Member
(deleted, wrong thread)
Gag Halfrunt
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SWR invited vlogger Jago Hazzard to the launch event. His blurb for the video is "The shock of the new-ish."
Given the stock shortage, the first few class 701s will only free up units so that the booked formations actually run. If class 455s are still going to Kilmarnock for repairs, that suggests they will keep going for a while longer. Are any of them getting close to C6 overhaul dates? That will almost certainly be terminal.
OneTrackMinded
Member
Lease is up at the end of 2025. They're not going on any longer than that
D365
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Which, I take it, is why Mr Drury is pushing for a whole-scale entry into service…
43096
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Why? It’s not like there is any new user signed up or even in prospect. If they still have mileage left to C4 and time left to C6, there is no reason why leases could not be extende.
Class15
Established Member
It will surely have to be extended. No way SWR are in a position to off-lease the 455s then.
If we look at passenger recovery and numbers on TfL it's the rail modes that are doing best. Elizabeth line going gangbusters, London Overground already back to 2019 levels and the tube not far off.
Buses some way back and were long in decline. DLR recovered well until problems with new train introduction and constant closures and short forms have hampered the network over the past year (sound familiar?).
That doesn't mean SWR will flatline if they get their act together.
Buses some way back and were long in decline. DLR recovered well until problems with new train introduction and constant closures and short forms have hampered the network over the past year (sound familiar?).
That doesn't mean SWR will flatline if they get their act together.
norbitonflyer
Established Member
Just the usual suspects out this morning - no new diagrams.
2H08 was not a 701 this morning after all. A 5-car 458 instead.
And the Surbiton peakbuster did not run due to a fault.
2H08 was not a 701 this morning after all. A 5-car 458 instead.
And the Surbiton peakbuster did not run due to a fault.
Goldfish62
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I guess the same single 458 that was on Reading services all day yesterday.
norbitonflyer
Established Member
458536, according to RTT
A fault with the 701?
If so it's really not encouraging is it, the same 4 out each day and any others they try to use break down pretty much straight away
I know 017 was out last week but still wasn't used on any all day diagrams, so hasn't really broken the 036/037/039/043 oligopoly.
norbitonflyer
Established Member
yes, according to National Rail's live departures site
2H08 isn’t “booked” a 701 until the dec 15 timetable change
norbitonflyer
Established Member
Ah, I had misunderstood
OneTrackMinded
Member
So presumably that’s the new diagram?
I believe so, but as mentioned by another member it may be STP’d as a 455 until the diagram can be fully crewed
Leases can be extended.
Goldfish62
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As I said previously, the 701s will provide an over 20% capacity increase on the suburban network without a single new service being added. This will also allow longer trains on to the mainline network due to displacing 450s.
The Overground is to be expected. It predominantly serves areas of high deprivation where people are less likely to be able to work from home. As it is growth has flatlined with a meagre 0.5% growth year-on-year rate so far this year, well below budget. Compared to 2018/19 Buses and Tube were at 84% and 85% respectively in 2023/24, both also with flatling growth this year so far.
If SWR had any interest in increasing service levels they'd have started doing something with off-peak services by now, as Southern and SouthEastern have. Reading weekday evenings, Hounslow loop and Dorking are examples.
Re your comment I've highlighted, I think the only hope is that the top tier at SWR are slung out in May and replaced with people with a more positive attitude. Maybe Steve White would like to move across from Southeastern...