The 2024 US presidential election.

[Tezza1978]

I'm moved from 55/45 to thinking Harris will win - to 80/20 that she will. Early voting data, the very high numbers of women voting , the abortion issue, with the Iowa poll providing further evidence. The bettiing markets are semi irrelevant as just driven by a few very big bettors, but even those have narrowed quite a bit. I think the polls are "herding" and the huge number of Republican biased polls are skewing them too.

That still means Trump has a good chance but I would be surprised. Women voters will get Harris over the line IMO.

I guess we don't have long to find out now....

 

[brad465]

US Joe Public is very dofferent to UK Joe Public, in their life experiences but also how they have been taught and think. I know a lot of US Citizens, and many of them who are completely reasonable and seemingly well adjusted in most aspects of life really don’t see Trump as we do, and what’s more simply don’t care what the rest of the world thinks of them. When you have it drilled into you from an early age that the USA is best at everything, why would you care?

Also worth remembering if you want an honest analysis of your own country, read about it in the foreign press, not the press of your own country, as even in the strongest democracies with no censorship, there is always bias towards it no matter how impartial journalists try to be. We and several other countries see much of what goes on with Trump, plus the US in general, but I'd have no doubt most of the US press don't report in the same way.

 

[Cross City]

US polling is notoriously inaccurate. It's incredibly difficult to conduct accurate polls there because of the sheer size of the country but conversely the hyper-local communities can be quite different to each other even within short distances.

I have Harris to win by a whisker. The tide has started to turn in the past few days IMO with more and more independent political commentators coming out saying the same.

 

[kristiang85]

Looking through the reams of nonsense online (that's my polite word for it), it is really hard to find anything reputable that helps give pointers. Even the polls seem mostly partizan. My gut feeling is that Trump will get it by a tiny amount, but it will be incredibly close and I could see a 2000-esque situation somewhere, so we might not see a final result for a while.

 

[kermit]

Sadly, it is as clear as day what will happen here. The pattern of vote counting tends to produce results from rural areas first, and they tend to be Republican. On the basis of those results, whether he has really won or not, Trump will declare victory. Then if Harris overtakes him, he and his supporters will cry that they have been cheated, it's unfair, it's a conspiracy, etc. Chaos, and probably violence, will ensue. Like a slow motion car crash, we are entering a very dangerous period in history. I really wish this were not the case.

 

[Donny Dave]

Sadly, it is as clear as day what will happen here. The pattern of vote counting tends to produce results from rural areas first, and they tend to be Republican. On the basis of those results, whether he has really won or not, Trump will declare victory. Then if Harris overtakes him, he and his supporters will cry that they have been cheated, it's unfair, it's a conspiracy, etc. Chaos, and probably violence, will ensue. Like a slow motion car crash, we are entering a very dangerous period in history. I really wish this were not the case.

It has already started....

Elon Musk has accused the Democrats of 'importing voters', a claim fact checked by the BBC at the end of October.

Fact-checking Elon Musk's claim about Democrats importing voters

BBC Verify investigates the claim by Elon Musk that Democrats import illegal immigrants to vote.

www.bbc.co.uk

Since endorsing Donald Trump for president in July, Elon Musk - the owner of X - has posted about the US election hundreds of times, attracting more than four billion views.

BBC Verify, working with data firm Node XL, analysed all of his posts since then - over 8,000 - and searched for key words to track the election issues he has been posting about most to his 200 million followers.

Immigration and voting emerge as key themes with Mr Musk engaging with misinformation online about "illegal aliens" voting in this election.

He has also claimed repeatedly that Democrats have been "importing" immigrants who will vote for them in future elections.

But voting and immigration experts we have spoken to have challenged this, pointing out that it is illegal for them to vote in federal elections and that even if some might qualify for citizenship eventually, the process would take many years.

Also on the BBC website is an article from 2 days ago about the amout of misinformation, rumours and lies happening in the election campaign.

Voter fraud claims flood social media before US election

Crowdsourced voter fraud claims and fake videos are flooding social media, as the contest remains on a knife-edge.

www.bbc.co.uk

Rumours, misleading allegations and outright lies about voting and fraud are flooding online spaces in unprecedented numbers in advance of the US election.
Hundreds of incidents involving purported voting irregularities are being collected and spread by individuals, as well as both independent and Republican-affiliated groups. A small number of posts are also coming from Democrats.
The US government has also alleged that foreign actors, including Russia, are spreading fake videos to undermine confidence in the electoral process.
The whirlwind of misinformation spreading online poses a challenge to election officials who are having to debunk rumours and reassure voters, while preparing to administer election day on Tuesday.
Many posts alleging election irregularities support the Trump campaign’s false claim that the former president won the 2020 election and suggestions that he will potentially be cheated out of victory again on 5 November.

 

[nw1]

It has already started....

Elon Musk has accused the Democrats of 'importing voters', a claim fact checked by the BBC at the end of October.

It shows what a rotten world we live in when that little jerk (sorry to be so blunt) is the richest person in the world.

He's already fabulously rich, why does he have to interfere in politics? Why doesn't he disappear off to his country estate, jet round the world, and live the rest of his life in carefree billionaire luxury, leaving the rest of us alone?

I hope a mass boycott of Twitter, sorry 'X', ensues if Trump wins. Likewise with Tesla cars.

 

[STINT47]

I hope a mass boycott of Twitter, sorry 'X', ensues if Trump wins. Likewise with Tesla cars.

I deleted Twitter a few months ago due to the views and actions of it's owner. I doubt I'm the only one.

 

[Class 466]

I don’t feel as hopeful about the outcome as I did in 2020 - really hope I can come back and correct myself in the coming days.

 

[LUYMun]

He's already fabulously rich, why does he have to interfere in politics? Why doesn't he disappear off to his country estate, jet round the world, and live the rest of his life in carefree billionaire luxury, leaving the rest of us alone?

The same answer as to why a certain billionaire wants to run for a second term as President: he wants the power.

I hope a mass boycott of Twitter, sorry 'X', ensues if Trump wins. Likewise with Tesla cars.

Telsa might be tricky considering how mainstream they have become especially with non-tech nerds.

On the other hand, Twitter's latest change to the ability of blocking being semi-removed has migrated some people on there to other social media platforms.

 

[simonw]

It shows what a rotten world we live in when that little jerk (sorry to be so blunt) is the richest person in the world.

He's already fabulously rich, why does he have to interfere in politics? Why doesn't he disappear off to his country estate, jet round the world, and live the rest of his life in carefree billionaire luxury, leaving the rest of us alone?

I hope a mass boycott of Twitter, sorry 'X', ensues if Trump wins. Likewise with Tesla cars.

Poor man wants to be rich, rich man wants to be king....

 

[43096]

The same answer as to why a certain billionaire wants to run for a second term as President: he wants the power to keep himself out of jail.

Amended...

 

[nw1]

I'd say by the morning most likely outcome is Don't Know Yet (40%) with 30% chance of a win for either candidate.
Guessing we could be waiting until Friday until the outcome is clear, decided doubtless by the result in some obscure exurban counties.

 

[Class 466]

I'd say by the morning most likely outcome is Don't Know Yet (40%) with 30% chance of a win for either candidate.
Guessing we could be waiting until Friday until the outcome is clear, decided doubtless by the result in some obscure exurban counties.

Guarantee one side will have “claimed” victory by tomorrow morning, much like in 2020.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Whilst this thread is about the presidential election the elections for congress and senate are just as important.
If, as I fear is going to be the case, Trump wins then if the Republicans hold both chambers, especially the senate, then any controls on him largely disappear.

 

[Egg Centric]

Looking like advantage Trump at the moment

 

[trainswitheddy]

Looking like advantage Trump at the moment

That's to be expected - Republican counties tend to come in first afaik and Trump will appear ahead early on in the night. Everything still to play for.

 

[AlterEgo]

I don’t see anything other than a Trump win. Even given what’s still to come.

 

[Scotrail314209]

This isn’t looking good for Harris. At all.

 

[kristiang85]

That's to be expected - Republican counties tend to come in first afaik and Trump will appear ahead early on in the night. Everything still to play for.

When you look at county level, who are near full results, the swing is marginally towards Trump. With the election so close, these small indicators matter.

 

[Moonshot]

I'm moved from 55/45 to thinking Harris will win - to 80/20 that she will. Early voting data, the very high numbers of women voting , the abortion issue, with the Iowa poll providing further evidence. The bettiing markets are semi irrelevant as just driven by a few very big bettors, but even those have narrowed quite a bit. I think the polls are "herding" and the huge number of Republican biased polls are skewing them too.

That still means Trump has a good chance but I would be surprised. Women voters will get Harris over the line IMO.

I guess we don't have long to find out now....

Betting markets are a very good indicator......this will be a Trump victory. In common with a number of posters on this thread......I despair.

 

[kristiang85]

Yep, Harris' numbers aren't moving enough in the right way.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Betting markets are a very good indicator......this will be a Trump victory. In common with a number of posters on this thread......I despair.

Looking really good so far. I am trying not to get my hopes up too much.

23.37 here. Current odds are Trump at 86% favorite

00.30EST so 05.30 GMT Trump now 95.6% to win.

00.36 EST 97,3% Trump

01.14 Republicans control the senate

 

[YorkshireBear]

Not surprising. Other than a short few weeks trump controlled the narrative and was able to say what he wanted unchallenged. Lets see what this term as president brings.

 

[1D54]

Wish I'd booked the day off work. This is just fantastic stuff from across the pond.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Wish I'd booked the day off work. This is just fantastic stuff from across the pond.

Absolutely. I am drinking champagne. Trump has just been announced as 47 president of the USA. Fantastic

Confirmed by Associated press. Trump is 47th President of USA. He is love him or hate a history maker.

 

[aavm]

Shame Biden didn't drop out earlier so they could choose a proper candidate. It was theirs to loose, and they lost.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Shame Biden didn't drop out earlier so they could choose a proper candidate. It was theirs to loose, and they lost.

100% correct.

 

[kermit]

Sadly, it is as clear as day what will happen here. The pattern of vote counting tends to produce results from rural areas first, and they tend to be Republican. On the basis of those results, whether he has really won or not, Trump will declare victory. Then if Harris overtakes him, he and his supporters will cry that they have been cheated, it's unfair, it's a conspiracy, etc. Chaos, and probably violence, will ensue. Like a slow motion car crash, we are entering a very dangerous period in history. I really wish this were not the case.

So, I stand corrected. America has made its choice, and we all have to live with the consequences. Will we now hear of further allegations of electoral fraud? I highly doubt it.

 

[londonteacher]

I’m relieved that Trump has got in. Not because I like him or his politics but because at least in the next election he won’t be able to stand again.