Plans to reopen Totton - Fawley/Hythe (again!)

[PedroHav]

Such a shame. The A326 will get busier and and more congested with more accidents on a road where accidents are very quite prevelent.
So much for the overall government plan to get more people to use public transport and reduce car use.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Has the new government formally re-stated such a ‘plan’, about reducing car use?
Anyone provide a quote or link?

 

[Oxfordblues]

The decision to cancel was made by Rachel Reeves, not by anyone connected with the railway.

Echoes of Barbara Castle. She was appointed Minister of Transport on 23 December 1965 and closed the vital Wennington-Morecambe line just 10 days later on 2 January 1966. What is it about Labour that they do these things?

 

[507020]

The decision to cancel was made by Rachel Reeves, not by anyone connected with the railway.

We are aware that Rachel Reeves cancelled a long list of unfunded “Tory lies” all of which already constituted broken promises and arguably the most notable of these was Boris Johnson’s “Beeching Reversal Fund” which may have been the most deceptive railway programme ever attempted, more so than the Beeching report itself, having delivered nothing.

Okehampton was attributed to RYR, despite being nothing to do with it and already being progressed as an independent scheme, the same way the Dore redoubling was attributed to “Network North” despite no money being freed up by the cancellation of HS2 due to the simple fact of having to pay the get out causes in all of the contracts. Why try and cover up genuine infrastructure investment pretending it’s a lie?

It was said that Louise Haigh would be undertaking a review of railway infrastructure schemes to be progressed by Labour with actual funding, so is this what the letter is saying has happened, without an announcement? I wouldn’t have been surprised if Portishead was cancelled, as punishment for Bristol voting out a Labour MP in favour of the greens, but the Waterside scheme from Southampton, with many Tory MPs being voted out in favour of Labour in Hampshire, is entirely credible.

 

[brad465]

We are aware that Rachel Reeves cancelled a long list of unfunded “Tory lies” all of which already constituted broken promises and arguably the most notable of these was Boris Johnson’s “Beeching Reversal Fund” which may have been the most deceptive railway programme ever attempted, more so than the Beeching report itself, having delivered nothing.

Cannot emphasise this enough; amazing how many fell for it despite Johnson's lying record. Even some anti-Tory folk seemed to be distraught.

It was said that Louise Haigh would be undertaking a review of railway infrastructure schemes to be progressed by Labour with actual funding, so is this what the letter is saying has happened, without an announcement? I wouldn’t have been surprised if Portishead was cancelled, as punishment for Bristol voting out a Labour MP in favour of the greens, but the Waterside scheme from Southampton, with many Tory MPs being voted out in favour of Labour in Hampshire, is entirely credible.

Labour would be very stupid to can Portishead on that basis. They may have lost Bristol Central, but North Somerset was a Labour gain (from Liam Fox), which is by far and away the constituency that Portishead would benefit. If anything it would make more sense for Labour to proceed to reward those constituents foe voting Labour this time.

 

[chris2]

That seems very sad to me. Something is seriously wrong with how the railway/Network Rail does things if it can't even work out a commuter route to a major city in such a densely populated area when it's not even building a new line, just upgrading an existing freight line.

100% agree.

 

[Sun Chariot]

I've walked much of the non operational line (Marchwood to Fawley) - I'm under no illusion at the state of the permanent way. I would anticipate the investment needed, to make the route safe for passenger traffic, is significant.

 

[daodao]

That seems very sad to me. Something is seriously wrong with how the railway/Network Rail does things if it can't even work out a commuter route to a major city in such a densely populated area when it's not even building a new line, just upgrading an existing freight line.

@Dougal2345 quoted the statement from a local councillor that "Network Rail undertook a detailed assessment of the proposal to better understand the technical, operational, costs and economic benefits for the scheme. This assessment concluded that - despite public support for the proposal to reintroduce rail services between Hythe and Southampton - the capital cost, operational cost and constraints, and limited service levels that could be reliably operated would not deliver value for money for the taxpayer."

The route is roundabout and serves the populated areas just west of Southampton Water poorly, so there would still be a need for substantial bus services. It is also likely to kill off the direct ferry service to Hythe. The site of the main station at Southampton is suboptimal as it is somewhat distant from the city centre; it was originally named West, but has now been renamed (IMO inappropriately) to Central, which seems redundant as there is only 1 surviving main station.

It seems that after careful evaluation, the scheme isn't worthwhile, and its cancellation can't really be attributed to the chancellor.

 

[swt_passenger]

@Dougal2345 quoted the statement from a local councillor that "Network Rail undertook a detailed assessment of the proposal to better understand the technical, operational, costs and economic benefits for the scheme. This assessment concluded that - despite public support for the proposal to reintroduce rail services between Hythe and Southampton - the capital cost, operational cost and constraints, and limited service levels that could be reliably operated would not deliver value for money for the taxpayer."

The route is roundabout and serves the populated areas just west of Southampton Water poorly, so there would still be a need for substantial bus services. It is also likely to kill off the direct ferry service to Hythe. The site of the main station at Southampton is suboptimal as it is somewhat distant from the city centre; it was originally named West, but has now been renamed (IMO inappropriately) to Central, which seems redundant as there is only 1 surviving main station.

It seems that after careful evaluation, the scheme isn't worthwhile, and its cancellation can't really be attributed to the chancellor.

I had my doubts back in 2020, post #21. As I said back then Hants CC had not been supportive before then, I think it got carried away with local optimism.

 

[weeklycommuter]

An hourly train service connecting two existing stations Southampton Central and Totton with stations at Marchwood and Hythe with a battery train for the unelectrified Totton to Hythe line would, looking at the New Forest Parish populations on the following web page, provide an hourly train service to Southampton for the 20,000 people in Hythe and the 6,000 people in Marchwood as well as a second train each hour for Totton which has a population of around 30,000. Only the 14,000 people in Fawley out of the 40,000 in the three Waterside parishes would not have a station with a train service but it would still be easier for them to join the train at Hythe than getting a bus all the way to Southampton. At Southampton Central there are good connections to train services everywhere in the country. The service was only going to Hythe so the railway beyond Hythe to Fawley did not need any work. I am very concerned that standards applied to reopening branch lines may be pushing the cost too high and this could be an obstacle to rail reopenings which are potentially very useful. There are other proposals including from Restoring Your Railway for introducing passenger train services on existing freight only lines and this issue of costs could be a problem for them too. Meanwhile people in Marchwood have to put up with train movements through their village and the railway is not providing them with any service in return. The proposal for passenger train services on this line from Totton to Hythe could be revisited in future, perhaps when the railway industry has worked out a more cost effective way of doing it.

New Forest (District, United Kingdom) - Population Statistics, Charts, Map and Location

New Forest (District, United Kingdom) with population statistics, charts, map and location.

citypopulation.de

 

[brad465]

Perhaps what the area needs is a developer who will contribute a notable share to the cost of reopening as part of further housing and/or business development along the route, similar to how the Battersea Power Station extension got a quarter of its funding.

 

[Meerkat]

An hourly train service connecting two existing stations Southampton Central and Totton with stations at Marchwood and Hythe with a battery train for the unelectrified Totton to Hythe line would, looking at the New Forest Parish populations on the following web page, provide an hourly train service to Southampton for the 20,000 people in Hythe and the 6,000 people in Marchwood as well as a second train each hour for Totton which has a population of around 30,000. Only the 14,000 people in Fawley out of the 40,000 in the three Waterside parishes would not have a station with a train service but it would still be easier for them to join the train at Hythe than getting a bus all the way to Southampton. At Southampton Central there are good connections to train services everywhere in the country. The service was only going to Hythe so the railway beyond Hythe to Fawley did not need any work. I am very concerned that standards applied to reopening branch lines may be pushing the cost too high and this could be an obstacle to rail reopenings which are potentially very useful. There are other proposals including from Restoring Your Railway for introducing passenger train services on existing freight only lines and this issue of costs could be a problem for them too. Meanwhile people in Marchwood have to put up with train movements through their village and the railway is not providing them with any service in return. The proposal for passenger train services on this line from Totton to Hythe could be revisited in future, perhaps when the railway industry has worked out a more cost effective way of doing it.

That’s really not many people for a dedicated rail line. The Hythe station isn’t very central to the housing, Southampton station isn’t very near the employment. So together with only an hourly train the service isn’t going to compare well with using their cars.

 

[Dougal2345]

That’s really not many people for a dedicated rail line. The Hythe station isn’t very central to the housing, Southampton station isn’t very near the employment.

Hythe isn't a huge place, so a large percentage of it is within a mile of the station, a fairly level walk.

I can't say I'm an expert on where 'the employment' is in Southampton, but within a 10 minute walk of Central station, there seem to be plenty of shops (including the main Above Bar Street & West Quay), the Council offices, courts and Guildhall library and museums, BBC South, cinemas, hotels, superstores, restaurants, IKEA, and so on. Add another 3 minutes and there's the Horizon Cruise Terminal.

So I imagine these are all providing some employment? In fact, where would be more central for the employment?

And there are stations at Redbridge, Millbrook, St Denys, Swaythling, and Southampton Airport, so the railway has a lot of other possible employment areas covered...

So together with only an hourly train the service isn’t going to compare well with using their cars.

Assuming they have cars.

 

[Meerkat]

Hythe isn't a huge place, so a large percentage of it is within a mile of the station, a fairly level walk.

I can't say I'm an expert on where 'the employment' is in Southampton, but within a 10 minute walk of Central station, there seem to be plenty of shops (including the main Above Bar Street & West Quay), the Council offices, courts and Guildhall library and museums, BBC South, cinemas, hotels, superstores, restaurants, IKEA, and so on. Add another 3 minutes and there's the Horizon Cruise Terminal.

So that’s probably 30 mins walking each way, on top of the journey time, and any time you lose because the trains are only hourly. That’s not attractive to pay for compared to a car you already own. Thats not a dealbreaker for a large market, but Hythe is a pretty small market to chase in the first place.

 

[zwk500]

An hourly train service connecting two existing stations Southampton Central and Totton with stations at Marchwood and Hythe with a battery train for the unelectrified Totton to Hythe line

An hourly service was a far worse business case than half hourly, because the generalised journey time was comparatively poor so close to Southampton.

Perhaps what the area needs is a developer who will contribute a notable share to the cost of reopening as part of further housing and/or business development along the route, similar to how the Battersea Power Station extension got a quarter of its funding.

Even without a contribution, the case for the line is mainly held up by future housing growth.

 

[bengley]

As I posted in another thread before it was closed:

I remember when the RyR scheme was announced (with a tiny budget which would barely lead to anything more than feasibility studies) people on here suggested they were just projects which would mostly never happen, thought up by the tories, to make Labour look bad when they were inevitably binned by the latter party when they certainly gained power.

Indeed!

 

[LCRTrainfan979]

I just think that this is a horrific decision, but it is somewhat understandable having seen the letter, and it is completely true that lines with basic hourly trains in Southampton (or indeed the whole solent area for that matter) really have had little success compared to other cities, and its a sympton of the relatively awkward network in Southampton where nearly all traffic has to be consolidated into one 4-track station (Although I know it would have become 5-track had this plan ever worked out), a station not as centrally located as others, and with no real alternative.
Compared to other cities, although there are clearly local lines, they have been given very little love, and it just leaves smaller stations to miss out while all of the money is thrown at the fast trains if they can fit in local stopping services. Even Totton now misses out on having little more than hourly trains to Winchester or from Southampton, so it gives many places in the Solent little incentive to use the poor rail services as they are, and you get stations like Redbridge and Millbrook built-up areas only getting less than 30,000 passengers annually with hourly services to Romsey and Salisbury. If there were frequent all-day connections to London Waterloo, as there were from many stations before COVID, that offers a service that you can't easily do by car, and thus gives some incentive to use the service.
To make the line a success in my opinion, you would have needed at least a half-hourly service, journey times comparable or faster than by car, and maybe some through trains beyond Southampton, and that was obviously never going to happen with budget cuts to railways, even if the business case came out only just positively enough for them to proceed

Now that the decision has been taken to scrap this project, is there any possibility that one of the future steps to the line is to lift some of the track, given there are only 3-4 services a day that only run as far as Marchwood. Given that there is now no credible case for improving the line, it could just be downgraded to save Network Rail some costs on a line that they will likely see with having little future?

 

[HSTEd]

Fundamentally I think the issue here is its 16km by rail from Hythe to Southampton central, a distance of a little over 4km or so as the crow flies.

Now obviously the harbour being full of enormous ships is hardly helpful, but if you want a competitive public transport system it probably has to take a direct route.
Being that a tunnel or some sort of ropeway solution.

 

[Djgr]

As I posted in another thread before it was closed:

I remember when the RyR scheme was announced (with a tiny budget which would barely lead to anything more than feasibility studies) people on here suggested they were just projects which would mostly never happen, thought up by the tories, to make Labour look bad when they were inevitably binned by the latter party when they certainly gained power.

Indeed!

Was this one of Boris'?

I am astounded that anyone could possibly have taken it seriously!

 

[Sun Chariot]

Fundamentally I think the issue here is its 16km by rail from Hythe to Southampton central, a distance of a little over 4km or so as the crow flies.

Now obviously the harbour being full of enormous ships is hardly helpful, but if you want a competitive public transport system it probably has to take a direct route.
Being that a tunnel or some sort of ropeway solution.

And those working in surrounding areas - Fareham / Hedge End / Soton Airport / Portsmouth - it's significantly quicker to drive M27 - M271 - A35 - A326, rather than them meandering into central Southampton and then back out for their onward journey.

 

[Dougal2345]

The site of the main station at Southampton is suboptimal as it is somewhat distant from the city centre; it was originally named West, but has now been renamed (IMO inappropriately) to Central, which seems redundant as there is only 1 surviving main station.

Southampton station isn’t very near the employment.

I still don't really get this thing about Southampton Central's position being 'suboptimal', 'distant from the city centre','renamed (IMO inappropriately) to Central', '[not near] to "the employment"'.

I already answered "the employment" one above, but I can't see how anyone can describe it as being 'distant from the city centre' when, to me, the city centre is the main shopping street, Above Bar, which is literally a 650m walk from the exit of the station, although you can make it to the door of the 'Marlands' shopping centre, or the civic centre (as opposed to city centre) in 500m.

Is that really 'distant'? I can think of many, many main stations that are a helluva lot more distant from their city centres than that, and not all that many that are closer.

Even looking at Google Maps and getting my crayons out, the only more 'optimal' placing would seem to be building a giant underground station in the middle of the current tunnel - but I think I prefer the open air one and a 7- or 8-minute walk...

And those working in surrounding areas - Fareham / Hedge End / Soton Airport / Portsmouth - it's significantly quicker to drive M27 - M271 - A35 - A326, rather than meandering into central Southampton and then back out for their onward journey.

Assuming you have a car.

 

[Sun Chariot]

Assuming you have a car.

Exactly. Hythe's and Marchwood's current working-age population is highly likely to have use of a car. The bus travel duration hardly makes it easy for commuting.

I can leave the Hants-West Sussex border and be in Hythe in 45-ish minutes. No bus service could match that.

 

[LCRTrainfan979]

I still don't really get this thing about Southampton Central's position being 'suboptimal', 'distant from the city centre','renamed (IMO inappropriately) to Central', '[not near] to "the employment"'.

I already answered "the employment" one above, but I can't see how anyone can describe it as being 'distant from the city centre' when, to me, the city centre is the main shopping street, Above Bar, which is literally a 650m walk from the exit of the station, although you can make it to the door of the 'Marlands' shopping centre, or the civic centre (as opposed to city centre) in 500m.

Is that really 'distant'? I can think of many, many main stations that are a helluva lot more distant from their city centres than that, and not all that many that are closer.

Even looking at Google Maps and getting my crayons out, the only more 'optimal' placing would seem to be building a giant underground station in the middle of the current tunnel - but I think I prefer the open air one and a 7- or 8-minute walk...


Assuming you have a car.

Compared to other cities (or big town), Southampton is quite central. When you compare it to a place like Bournemouth, there the main station is quite a way out of town, and in turn quite a long way from the seafront. However, Southampton is less convenient than other places.
Even if this is harsh for the saints fans, but with Portsmouth, Portsmouth & Southsea is the kind of station which ought to be called Portsmouth Central, given you go out, turn right and you're on commercial road. Even then, you also have Fratton and Portsmouth Harbour with highly frequent services as well, meaning more of Portsmouth and it's major employment areas are covered with frequent train services, in addition, the main commuter areas into Portsmouth (including Cosham, Fareham and Havant) also have frequent services, making them more attractive for many users
Meanwhile with Southampton, although Woolston now has a more regular service thanks to Southern, most stations other than central only have hourly services, with most trains passing through them without stopping, and thus are unattractive for many to use, hence why so many people will drive, and in practice, at that point you might as well drive all of the way rather than even bother with the train. Many of the stations east of the Itchen also have the issue where they have to go up via St Denys, which adds a few minutes to journey times than if there was a tunnel or another bridge which would cut off the bend. Marchwood and Hythe would ultimately have most likely fallen into the same trap as many other stations in Southampton and the wider Solent area with infrequent and relatively indirect services, making it unattractive in the longer term unless you work in Central Southampton within walking distance, which won't be the case with everyone. Particularly if you work on the other side of Central Southampton to the station, driving will work out quicker door-to-door, and taking the train will barely save any time if you have any walk exceeding a few minutes. Network Rail figured it just wasn't worth it enough to pump in the investment, which would have needed to cover a reasonable amount of upgrades to the whole line with signals, 2 modern stations and upgrading the signalling to bring platform 5 at Southampton Central back into use.

 

[fgwrich]

Exactly. Hythe's and Marchwood's current working-age population is highly likely to have use of a car. The bus travel duration hardly makes it easy for commuting.

I can leave the Hants-West Sussex border and be in Hythe in 45-ish minutes. No bus service could match that.

I will say this is time of day dependant though. I've had to visit the Fawley area a few times over the last week, and let me tell you driving along the A326 in the rush hour is no fun at all. The worst I've had was last Thursday, which took about 45 to 50 minutes to crawl from Totton to the bottom end of the Hythe bypass and start of the Fawley area. A lot of that traffic dissipated into Hythe and Fawley, and most have appeared to be commuters.

An hourly service was a far worse business case than half hourly, because the generalised journey time was comparatively poor so close to Southampton.

Even without a contribution, the case for the line is mainly held up by future housing growth.

Perhaps what the area needs is a developer who will contribute a notable share to the cost of reopening as part of further housing and/or business development along the route, similar to how the Battersea Power Station extension got a quarter of its funding.

Indeed, this was the plan until the developers for the Fawley Power Station site pulled out. I do wonder if the cancellation of this development has sunk the reinstatement of the railway for the time being. As for those mentioning the distance being shorter as the crow flies, Yes. But at the moment you either have a very unreliable ferry service from Blue Funnel (now owned by Red Funnel) or car / bus via the aformentioned A326 and Totton. And you also have the eastern edge of the New Forest - An area both popular with walkers, cyclists, water sports and the impressive Calshot Activity centre.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Fundamentally I think the issue here is its 16km by rail from Hythe to Southampton central, a distance of a little over 4km or so as the crow flies.

Now obviously the harbour being full of enormous ships is hardly helpful, but if you want a competitive public transport system it probably has to take a direct route.
Being that a tunnel or some sort of ropeway solution.

The Hythe Ferry takes 15 minutes when it is running though it is currently suspended.

 

[LCRTrainfan979]

The Hythe Ferry takes 15 minutes when it is running though it is currently suspended.

Maybe the cancellation of the branch line may entice them to reinstate the ferry, particularly if no safeguarding ends up happening to the line, preventing the plan from being revived if economic conditions allow.

 

[Sun Chariot]

Maybe the cancellation of the branch line may entice them to reinstate the ferry,

The service was suspended latter August, due to discovery of damage around the passenger embark pontoon and the pilings for the supporting structure. No advertised date, as yet, tor the repairs.

Hythe Ferry service suspended for repairs

Hythe Ferry apologises to travellers for disruption to their journeys.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Hythe Ferry takes 15 minutes when it is running though it is currently suspended.

That's a long time for a journey that's less than 3km. Or does that include things like boarding/alighting time?

Assuming 15 minutes is right, I'm not sure the train would take much longer. After all it is only 5/6 minutes between Southampton and Totton today, which is about 1/3 of the journey by miles. It also looks to me from the map like both Hythe and Southampton stations would be closer to the town centres than either ferry terminal, so I could imagine the train being just as, if not more convenient for most people.

 

[LCRTrainfan979]

That's a long time for a journey that's less than 3km. Or does that include things like boarding/alighting time?

Assuming 15 minutes is right, I'm not sure the train would take much longer. After all it is only 5/6 minutes between Southampton and Totton today, which is about 1/3 of the journey by miles. It also looks to me from the map like both Hythe and Southampton stations would be closer to the town centres than either ferry terminal, so I could imagine the train being just as, if not more convenient for most people.

To be fair, if you reinstated and maybe improved the ferry service, that could actually achieve much of the same level of effects that the line could do, by providing an alternative to driving into Southampton, and there is quite little difference in terms of how built up the area near the ferry terminal is compaqred to the area near Central station.
The train would only have been equally convenient, and maybe very slightly faster, but its not a sufficient enough improvement overall, given it still has to go up through Totton and (presumably, although never explicitly stated) fast through Redbridge and/or Millbrook. That is by no means a rapid express service. You already have around 9 minutes of journey time between Totton and Southampton Ctl by looking at realtime trains, plus around 10-15 minutes or something like that down to Hythe throough Marchwood, that is around a 20 minute train journey, and that is just station-to-station, not door-to-door. Employment centres are in all likelihood as likely to exist around the site of the ferry terminal than near Southampton Ctl, given that you have all of the cruise terminals and other industrial areas around the docks.
Say maybe if it wasn't for the ferry existing at all, that would have been a case to reinstate the line a long time ago, given there would have otherwise been no public transport direct to Southampton beyond perhaps an inept bus service that no one used. With the possibility of the ferry some day returning and government cuts due to this £22bn ""black hole"", that just isn't a strong enough case in the eyes of the government to retain a scheme providing insufficient improvement to the area it was to serve amid all of the cuts.

 

[Dougal2345]

I'm not sure everything is about speed here.

If the choice is between a 'leisurely' 20 or 25 minute train journey, and a speedy 15 minute ferry journey, I think some other factors would come into play.

Much as I love the ferry, it's great on a sunny day for a bit of a 'heritage adventure', it does have a few disadvantages over the (theoretical) train:

* It doesn't run in the evening
* It's unsuitable for anyone with motion sickness
* It's a pretty ancient and uncomfortable - does it even have padded seats?
* Cold on a winter's day and smells of diesel fumes
* Noisy
* It's likely to be cancelled as soon as the wind gets up
* If it isn't, it's got to be pretty grim boarding it in a rainstorm.
* Two changes needed, pier train to ferry, ferry to bus.

Whereas a train, even an elderly 158, will beat it hands down in all respects.

If I were heading in to Southampton for work each day, I think I'd choose the sluggish train, with a chance to sit on a comfy(ish) seat, with the cold and rain safely kept at bay outside, and the ability to use a smartphone without having it shaken out of my hand - and an extra 10 minutes wouldn't be an issue at all.