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Russia invades Ukraine

Cloud Strife

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Is it possible that F-16s finally arriving helped this attack? Even if they were not used in this incursion they could provide cover elsewhere to allow other weaponry to be used for this operation so far.

Quite possible, particularly as the forwards capabilities of Russian air assets have been diminished through constant attacks on their infrastructure. Certainly Russia isn't daring to come close with air support for the Special Military Operation in Kursk, which suggests that they're afraid of not only the air defences, but also the possibility that they will lose in a dogfight situation. At least one UA MiG-29 has been dropping bombs in Kursk too, so it suggests that something is very, very wrong on the side of Russia.

It did look to me (not that I’m an expert!) like a HIMARS attack but I didn’t want to speculate. The significance of course being that if it was, Western supplied weapons are very much being used!

It seems that the Pentagon has made it clear that Ukraine is now welcome to do what they want with what was supplied to them. At least one European country, Norway, has said the same. Having said that, it was definitely a HIMARS attack, as even the Russians have confirmed that cluster ammunition was used. The fact that Ukraine was willing to get so close with HIMARS suggests that the Russian defensive capabilities are really in question.

One thing is for sure: if Russia managed to degrade their border defenses to the point that Ukraine could easily break through, how poorly defended are the Chinese and Finnish borders?
 
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DustyBin

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Quite possible, particularly as the forwards capabilities of Russian air assets have been diminished through constant attacks on their infrastructure. Certainly Russia isn't daring to come close with air support for the Special Military Operation in Kursk, which suggests that they're afraid of not only the air defences, but also the possibility that they will lose in a dogfight situation. At least one UA MiG-29 has been dropping bombs in Kursk too, so it suggests that something is very, very wrong on the side of Russia.



It seems that the Pentagon has made it clear that Ukraine is now welcome to do what they want with what was supplied to them. At least one European country, Norway, has said the same. Having said that, it was definitely a HIMARS attack, as even the Russians have confirmed that cluster ammunition was used. The fact that Ukraine was willing to get so close with HIMARS suggests that the Russian defensive capabilities are really in question.

One thing is for sure: if Russia managed to degrade their border defenses to the point that Ukraine could easily break through, how poorly defended are the Chinese and Finnish borders?

In regard to HIMARS, I presume the (seemingly effective?) counter measures Russia has introduced in Ukraine haven’t been deployed within Russia, on the basis that they aren’t needed. They’ll now have to reconsider!

I’d be interested to know what air defences are covering this incursion at this stage (if any). If they can keep the Russian air force away, Russia is going to have an even bigger problem….
 

Cloud Strife

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In regard to HIMARS, I presume the (seemingly effective?) counter measures Russia has introduced in Ukraine haven’t been deployed within Russia, on the basis that they aren’t needed. They’ll now have to reconsider!

It seems to be that GPS jamming has proven somewhat effective against HIMARS, but Ukraine has been using drone strikes to take out jammers before attacking. It's possible that in this case, Russia just hasn't been deploying jammers, so they were a sitting duck. It's actually been a very interesting story, as there's evidence that lower-tech missiles and bombs are proving more effective on the battlefield.

I’d be interested to know what air defences are covering this incursion at this stage (if any). If they can keep the Russian air force away, Russia is going to have an even bigger problem….

It would be very interesting to know what they're doing. It might just be that Russia is afraid to deploy any air assets as they'll be needed for winter attacks. There is a lot of speculation that Russia has been saving their assets for a potential massive attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in winter, but there's also the possibility that they simply don't want to risk deploying their limited air resources in a very regional conflict. The entire war has been somewhat strange, although Western commentators generally suggest that Russia simply wasted most of the money invested in their air force.

What I think is worth paying attention to is the lack of combat experience in the Russian air forces too. They simply don't have the training or the skill that NATO has, while Ukraine does have fairly decent AD.
 

brad465

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Ukraine now claiming that a key gas transit point has been captured:


Ukraine’s military said it had captured a key gas transit point supplying Europe as Kyiv pursued its most ambitious incursion into Russian territory in a decade of war, forcing Moscow to declare a state of emergency in two regions.

“Sudzha is under the full control of Ukrainian troops,” said the 61st mechanised brigade on Telegram. Gas prices in Russia rose sharply to an annual peak, said a Gazprom representative on Telegram.[/QOUTE]

I haven't seen a map of the pipes linked to that point, but holding this would not only impact Russia's economy, if gas to Hungary passes through here Orban would get very nervous.
 

najaB

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Ukraine now claiming that a key gas transit point has been captured:
One commenter on YouTube suggested that Ukraine should open the valves but disconnect/destroy the metering equipment, giving European countries some free gas! :smile:
 

DustyBin

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It seems to be that GPS jamming has proven somewhat effective against HIMARS, but Ukraine has been using drone strikes to take out jammers before attacking. It's possible that in this case, Russia just hasn't been deploying jammers, so they were a sitting duck. It's actually been a very interesting story, as there's evidence that lower-tech missiles and bombs are proving more effective on the battlefield.

This was my understanding as well, although I was under the impression that the drones were themselves being jammed (in some cases anyway). I guess ultimately it’s going to be a constantly evolving situation, as both sides counter the counter measures.

It would be very interesting to know what they're doing. It might just be that Russia is afraid to deploy any air assets as they'll be needed for winter attacks. There is a lot of speculation that Russia has been saving their assets for a potential massive attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in winter, but there's also the possibility that they simply don't want to risk deploying their limited air resources in a very regional conflict. The entire war has been somewhat strange, although Western commentators generally suggest that Russia simply wasted most of the money invested in their air force.

It’s a strange one as you say. On paper the Russian air force looks fairly formidable (like the rest of the armed forces really!) but it’s been relatively ineffective in this war. The recent glide bomb attacks have caused problems, but if Russia had been able to establish air superiority early on this would surely have been over fairly quickly. There’s no chance of that now of course as Ukraine’s air defences have actually improved over the course of the war, and it’s modest airforce has continued to operate, now with relatively advanced F-16s and at some point AWACS as well.

What I think is worth paying attention to is the lack of combat experience in the Russian air forces too. They simply don't have the training or the skill that NATO has, while Ukraine does have fairly decent AD.

Yes this is a very good point. I believe that compared to their NATO counterparts, Russian pilots spend a fraction of the time actually flying their aircraft.
 

najaB

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Yes this is a very good point. I believe that compared to their NATO counterparts, Russian pilots spend a fraction of the time actually flying their aircraft.
I think I read somewhere that a Russian pilot would be lucky to get even half as much flight time as a US one.
 

edwin_m

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"Gas prices in Russia rose sharply to an annual peak, said a Gazprom representative on Telegram." doesn't really make sense. If they can no longer export gas then if anything it will be cheaper on the domestic market. Or does it also supply parts of Russia?
One commenter on YouTube suggested that Ukraine should open the valves but disconnect/destroy the metering equipment, giving European countries some free gas! :smile:
I imagine the Russians would shut it off further upstream. I believe this is the pipeline that runs across Ukraine to reach the west, which rather surprisingly neither side has so far chosen to shut off or destroy since the invasion.
 

brad465

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"Gas prices in Russia rose sharply to an annual peak, said a Gazprom representative on Telegram." doesn't really make sense. If they can no longer export gas then if anything it will be cheaper on the domestic market. Or does it also supply parts of Russia?

I imagine the Russians would shut it off further upstream. I believe this is the pipeline that runs across Ukraine to reach the west, which rather surprisingly neither side has so far chosen to shut off or destroy since the invasion.
If Hungary and Slovakia are big recipients of gas from that pipeline that would be a good way to make their leaders feel domestic pain.
 

Cloud Strife

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It’s a strange one as you say. On paper the Russian air force looks fairly formidable (like the rest of the armed forces really!) but it’s been relatively ineffective in this war. The recent glide bomb attacks have caused problems, but if Russia had been able to establish air superiority early on this would surely have been over fairly quickly. There’s no chance of that now of course as Ukraine’s air defences have actually improved over the course of the war, and it’s modest airforce has continued to operate, now with relatively advanced F-16s and at some point AWACS as well.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that while Russia has a formidable air force on paper, what's actually happening is that they can't keep the good stuff flying through incompetence, theft and lack of know-how. It is surreal that Russia has only ever achieved localised air superiority in this war, and Ukraine has managed to do incredible things with very limited resources.

"Gas prices in Russia rose sharply to an annual peak, said a Gazprom representative on Telegram." doesn't really make sense. If they can no longer export gas then if anything it will be cheaper on the domestic market. Or does it also supply parts of Russia?

My logical thinking here is that if they can't make money from exporting it (because they fear an impending destruction of the export capability), then the domestic price has to rise.

I imagine the Russians would shut it off further upstream. I believe this is the pipeline that runs across Ukraine to reach the west, which rather surprisingly neither side has so far chosen to shut off or destroy since the invasion.

Most of the export pipelines are already closed. This is the last one in operation, although Ukraine has made it clear that the transit will end at the end of this year.
 

najaB

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Two additional Ukrainian special military operations in the Belgorod direction. YouTube video linked below:
 

Belperpete

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Is this a ploy by Ukraine to have something to offer when going into peace negotiations? We'll retreat if you do.
 

brad465

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Is this a ploy by Ukraine to have something to offer when going into peace negotiations? We'll retreat if you do.
It very well could be. You leave Ukraine and we leave Russia.
There's a whole number of things it could be: leverage in negotiations is one, but there's also potentially:

- Diversionary tactics
- Controlling strategic assets to cripple the Russian economy
- Boosting Ukraine morale
- Making NATO and other Ukraine backers see progress as a means to secure more aid
- Safeguarding against Trump returning (if he's elected and Ukraine is holding Russian turf, a simple ceasefire/peace deal on battle lines at the time will be out of the question)
 

HSTEd

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They are probably better able to inflict casualties on the Russians here than in an environment with enormous Russian defensive infrastructure and where the best Russian units are already concentrated.

Beyond that, defending against future incursions will require more Russian units to be diverted to cover other "quiet" sectors of the border.
This will dilute Russians offensive power and make it less able to continue its offensives.
 

DustyBin

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Just to add to the above posts by @brad465 and @HSTEd, I came a cross a translated Telegram post which suggested that at least some of the troops involved on the Russian side weren’t the cannon fodder type. I took it to mean people who were being protected/kept away from the front as they were more “valuable”.

How significant (or even true) this is I’ve no idea, but if people in Moscow and St Petersburg start losing relatives they may become less ambivalent.
 

brad465

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Russia now saying Ukraine are 30km inside its borders. Things must be really bad if Russia are admitting this much:


Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 30km inside Russia, in what has become the the deepest and most significant incursion since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russia's defence ministry said its forces had engaged Ukrainian troops near the villages of Tolpino and Obshchy Kolodez, as the offensive in the Kursk region entered a sixth day.
Foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Kyiv of "intimidating the peaceful population of Russia".
Overnight, President Volodymyr Zelensky directly acknowledged the attack for the first time, saying Ukraine was pushing the war to "the aggressor's territory".
"Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and ensure the necessary pressure on the aggressor," Mr Zelensky told the country in his nightly address from Kyiv.
He went on to thank Ukraine's "warriors" and said he had discussed the operation in Russia with the country's top military commander - Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi.
A senior Ukrainian official told the AFP news agency that thousands of troops were engaged in the operation, far more than the small incursion initially reported by Russian border guards.
While Ukrainian-backed sabotage groups have launched intermittent cross-border incursions, the Kursk offensive marks the biggest co-ordinated attack on Russian territory by Kyiv's conventional forces.
“We are on the offensive. The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilise the situation in Russia as they are unable to protect their own border,” the official said.
Russia's defence ministry said on Sunday that its forces had "foiled attempts by enemy mobile groups with armoured vehicles to break through deep into Russian territory".
But in an apparent admission that Kyiv's forces have now advanced deep into the Kursk border region, the defence ministry reported engaging Ukrainian forces near the villages of Tolpino and Obshchy Kolodez - which are about 25km and 30km from the Russia-Ukraine border.
Ukrainian troops have claimed to have captured a number of settlements in the Kursk region. In Guevo, a village about 3km inside Russia, soldiers filmed themselves removing the Russian flag from an administrative building.
Clips have also emerged of Ukrainian troops seizing administrative buildings in Sverdlikovo and Poroz, while intense fighting has been reported in Sudzha - a town of about 5,000 people.
Ukrainian troops have already filmed themselves outside Sudzha at a major gas facility involved in the transit of natural gas from Russia to the EU via Ukraine, which has continued despite the war.
In Sumy, which borders the Kursk region, BBC reporters witnessed a steady stream of armoured personnel carriers and tanks moving towards Russia.
The armoured convoys are sporting white triangular insignias, seemingly to distinguish them from hardware used within Ukraine itself. Meanwhile, aerial photos have appeared to show Ukrainian tanks engaged in combat inside Russia.
Photos analysed by BBC Verify also appeared to show Russia constructing new defensive lines near the Kursk nuclear power plant. Ukrainian forces are said to have advanced within 50km (31 miles) of the facility.
Contrasting satellite imagery of the same location captured yesterday with imagery from a few days earlier, images show several newly constructed trench lines in the vicinity, with the nearest roughly 8km (5 miles) from the plant.
 

Iskra

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Excellent to see this progress from Ukraine, and it seems to be succeeding too in its main aim of diverting pro-Russian forces away from other areas of the frontline. This must be a real embarrassment for Putin. Strongmen that get revealed as being not too strong, don't tend to fare so well.
 

Ivor

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Is this a ploy by Ukraine to have something to offer when going into peace negotiations? We'll retreat if you do.
It very well could be. You leave Ukraine and we leave Russia.
I would hope this to be the case but I can’t see Putin losing face in any shape or form especially as now Ukraine have taken some Russian soil.

The Russian people or many of them may now start to think it’s time for a change but this would take a long time to oust Putin with an uprising of the people & I am not sure they have the appetite to do this (yet)
 

Cloud Strife

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The Russian people or many of them may now start to think it’s time for a change but this would take a long time to oust Putin with an uprising of the people & I am not sure they have the appetite to do this (yet)

If Putin goes, it'll be from within. There's no history of Russia having coups from below, it's always come as a result of the inner circles deciding to get rid of the figure at the top.

Russia now saying Ukraine are 30km inside its borders. Things must be really bad if Russia are admitting this much:

It looks like Ukraine is mounting constant attacks on the border to see where else they can potentially break through, while also sending forward forces around the Kursk region to see what they can potentially seize. It's astonishing that Russia hasn't flooded the area with reservists to at least try and overwhelm the Ukrainians with sheer numbers alone, which points at serious shortages within the Russian military.
 

Belperpete

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I would hope this to be the case but I can’t see Putin losing face in any shape or form especially as now Ukraine have taken some Russian soil.
As you say, the critical thing is that there has to be a way out that allows Putin to save face with the Russian people. However, there is a big difference between a win and what Putin can get the bulk of the Russian population to believe is a win.

He would have found it very difficult to convince anyone that giving up captured Ukrainian territory was a win unless he had won something in return. Ukraine now has something to offer in return. Whether or not it would be enough of a face saver is another thing.
 

brad465

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Now 121,000 Russians evacuated, with more still to be evacuated on top. A security meeting in Russia also saw Putin have to interrupt the Kursk governor to stop the latter revealing how bad things were:


Vladimir Putin likes talking about his "special military operation", but this was clearly not a meeting he enjoyed chairing.

He kicked it off by talking about how well the Russian army was doing, allegedly inflicting huge damage on Ukrainian forces.

But the acting governor of Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, looked and sounded much less upbeat.

When he started speaking about how deep inside Russian territory the Ukrainian forces were, he was interrupted by President Putin, who told him to focus on "how people were being helped" instead.

The Russian president appeared displeased, pursing his lips, when Smirnov said the Ukrainians were in control of 28 villages in his region.

These are scenes you seldom see on Russian state TV and they reveal the scale of the problem faced by Russia in Kursk region.


Kursk governor Alexei Smirnov says so far 121,000 residents of the Kursk region have been evacuated,

He says 59,000 more still need to leave.

"As per your instructions... we've divided the resettlement of people into two stages. First stage: 10km zone in four districts, plus all of the Sudzha and Korenevo districts," he tells Putin.

"On 8 August, we started [evacuating] all of the six border districts, plus the Bolshoe Soldatskoe and Lgov districts because they are near a nuclear power station. The total is 180,000 people."

He adds that 12 civilians have been killed in the region and 121 others wounded.
 

najaB

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It might be overused, but...

2022: We thought Russia was the second most powerful army in the world.
2023: We realised Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine.
2024: Turns out Russia is the second most powerful army in Russia
 

DustyBin

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Do we need to change the title of this thread!

I had resisted the temptation to suggest the same!

It might be overused, but...

2022: We thought Russia was the second most powerful army in the world.
2023: We realised Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine.
2024: Turns out Russia is the second most powerful army in Russia

Still somewhat amusing though, despite the seriousness of the situation!
 

Cloud Strife

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Some reports are suggesting that as many as 1000-1200 Russian POWs have been taken. If this is true, then Russia has even more problems than I thought.
 

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