The 2024 US presidential election.

[Cloud Strife]

Isn't this all going back to the fact that the US is a collection of states, rather than a unitary state? How a State goes about appointing its electors is its choice, as per the constitution of the State.

Theoretically yes, although in practice, the US is not a true federation. The Civil War pretty much ended that concept, and they exported it to other countries too (such as Germany and Austria).

But yes, in this case, you're right. There is a massive problem in that there's no obligation for individual states to give the electoral college votes to the candidate who got the most votes in a given state. I wouldn't be shocked if we see at least one situation this year where Harris wins the popular vote in a given state and the state legislature attempts to give the electoral college votes to Trump.

 

[brad465]

But yes, in this case, you're right. There is a massive problem in that there's no obligation for individual states to give the electoral college votes to the candidate who got the most votes in a given state. I wouldn't be shocked if we see at least one situation this year where Harris wins the popular vote in a given state and the state legislature attempts to give the electoral college votes to Trump.

Which would along with the aftermath make January 6th look like a school playground fight.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Linking this to the election, do Americans not have any critical thinking?

How can some of these people understand the choices they are making when they vote if they jump to the stupidest conclusions on a lot of topics.

Give me a break. That is insulting in my opinion.

 

[birchesgreen]

Give me a break. That is insulting in my opinion.

Pot calling the kettle black to be honest if you look at a few British news stories.

 

[nw1]

One can ask the same here, as loads of people are still quoting a fake name from a Russian website regarding the Southport attack. They are now claiming the locals and police are part of a conspiracy to hide the fact it was a muslim refugee fresh off a boat that did it.

The attacking of the mosque and the violence carried out by the so-called "English Defence League" (defence of what, exactly?) is beyond sickening.

This is evidence that the UK is indeed blighted by the same far-right disease as the USA, and probably most other countries.
I'm not sure if the "English Defence League" are banned, but they certainly ought to be. They have a pathological hatred of Muslims, no more, no less.

One of the Western world's top priorities needs to be to vigorously fight the menace of the far right and this is the primary reason why the USA should be voting for Harris, and not Trump.

 

[Cross City]

I'm loving how rattled a lot of Republicans are about the whole "weird" thing.

They're going to lose this election.

 

[birchesgreen]

Harris is either level pegging or ahead in the swing seats, still anyone's game but at least the Democrats have a good chance now.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Harris is either level pegging or ahead in the swing seats, still anyone's game but at least the Democrats have a good chance now.

Trump has to be very, very careful in the next month or so. The Harris campaign is full of life, and it's not such a long slog until November. By using this "weird" comment, they've got a strong chance of making it stick, especially as Republicans seem to be completely unable to deal with it. A lot of things that Republicans do are weird, and it's very, very possible that a single word can illustrate perfectly their disconnect with ordinary voters.

I also wouldn't underestimate the power of such a word. You might not use spicier language around the dinner table in suburban Georgia, but you'd definitely have no problems telling your grandma that Vance is weird. If Grandma then goes to the bridge club and tells her friends there that Vance is weird, then it really can stick.

Trump is going to fight back hard, but he won't be able to rely on what was a good electoral strategy: portray Biden as too old and incapable. Now he's dealing with a much younger candidate who will be bigger, louder and flashier than he is, and with an energised electorate that won't have any problems covering social media with memes that actually speak to people aged between 18-50.

 

[Cowley]

Trump has to be very, very careful in the next month or so. The Harris campaign is full of life, and it's not such a long slog until November. By using this "weird" comment, they've got a strong chance of making it stick, especially as Republicans seem to be completely unable to deal with it. A lot of things that Republicans do are weird, and it's very, very possible that a single word can illustrate perfectly their disconnect with ordinary voters.

I also wouldn't underestimate the power of such a word. You might not use spicier language around the dinner table in suburban Georgia, but you'd definitely have no problems telling your grandma that Vance is weird. If Grandma then goes to the bridge club and tells her friends there that Vance is weird, then it really can stick.

Trump is going to fight back hard, but he won't be able to rely on what was a good electoral strategy: portray Biden as too old and incapable. Now he's dealing with a much younger candidate who will be bigger, louder and flashier than he is, and with an energised electorate that won't have any problems covering social media with memes that actually speak to people aged between 18-50.

Yes I think that’s exactly how they need to play this.

Trump has to be very, very careful in the next month or so.

I wonder how that’ll go then?

On a wider note. It seems to me that MAGA basically is Trump and that there’s nobody else that I can see who has a similar level of charisma and is in any position to follow him. I think there’s plenty in the current iteration of the GOP who know exactly how they want the USA to look in the future, but none that have anywhere near the decades of recognition that he has.

So what happens to the Republican Party if he does lose? I can’t see him standing again in four years time, but would he try and crowbar one of his family into a leadership position, or does it all just collapse in on itself (like his hair on a rainy day) and the party starts to become more moderate again..?

 

[ainsworth74]

By using this "weird" comment, they've got a strong chance of making it stick, especially as Republicans seem to be completely unable to deal with it. A lot of things that Republicans do are weird, and it's very, very possible that a single word can illustrate perfectly their disconnect with ordinary voters.

It's quite amusing watching the Republican's and their hangers on getting wound up at being called weird. Also I thought that they were the anti-snowflakes who assured us that words can't be harmful and you just need to have a thicker skin? Why are they getting so upset?

Trump is going to fight back hard, but he won't be able to rely on what was a good electoral strategy: portray Biden as too old and incapable.

Indeed the tables are turned, now it's the Republicans who are running the oldest ever candidate.

 

[birchesgreen]

It's quite amusing watching the Republican's and their hangers on getting wound up at being called weird. Also I thought that they were the anti-snowflakes who assured us that words can't be harmful and you just need to have a thicker skin? Why are they getting so upset?

As is the case here, the biggest snowflakes are so often the ones who call others snowflakes.

 

[nw1]

Trump is going to fight back hard, but he won't be able to rely on what was a good electoral strategy: portray Biden as too old and incapable. Now he's dealing with a much younger candidate who will be bigger, louder and flashier than he is, and with an energised electorate that won't have any problems covering social media with memes that actually speak to people aged between 18-50.

A good point on the whole, but: I'm not sure that you stop "getting" online jokes or online satire the moment you hit your 50th birthday! Someone who has turned 50 in the 2020s will have had more than half their life, and the overwhelming majority of their adult life, in the internet era.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jul 2024 ==

Harris is either level pegging or ahead in the swing seats, still anyone's game but at least the Democrats have a good chance now.

If I had to guess, I'd say Wisconsin and Georgia are the most likely to go Trump, with the remainder Harris.

I maybe wrong but those two seem to swing slightly more conservative.

Not sure what the result would be if WI and GA went Trump and the others (PA, MI, AZ) went Harris.

 

[jfollows]

A good point on the whole, but: I'm not sure that you stop "getting" online jokes or online satire the moment you hit your 50th birthday! Someone who has turned 50 in the 2020s will have had more than half their life, and the overwhelming majority of their adult life, in the internet era.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jul 2024 ==



If I had to guess, I'd say Wisconsin and Georgia are the most likely to go Trump, with the remainder Harris.

I maybe wrong but those two seem to swing slightly more conservative.

Not sure what the result would be if WI and GA went Trump and the others (PA, MI, AZ) went Harris.

North Carolina would be unusual if it went Democrat, but the polling is currently close. My other half gets to vote there (he and I lived there for >2 years) and he’ll be voting Democrat for sure. But last time it was less close in the end than predicted and remained Republican. Arizona is down to the Hispanic vote I think; Tucson Democrat but Phoenix (except Maricopa County which is a big exception) Republican, he (born in Mexico) has family in Tucson although his mother has now moved back to California.

Hispanic population in Arizona has increased from 25% in 2000 to 31% in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Hispanic_and_Latino_population). It’s only greater in percentage terms in Texas, California, New Mexico and Puerto Rico. And they’re not swing states (yet). Hispanic voters tend towards Democrat except in Florida (because of Cuba). So getting the vote out can be important.

Georgia is down to the African-American voters and whether or not they vote; previous attempts by Republicans were to make it harder for them to vote by closing down early polling drop-off locations in their neighbourhoods, for example. As long as they vote, they’ll primarily vote Democrat.

Of course, these are my subjective observations from states I have some connection with, I’m lucky to have been to most of them (all except Puerto Rico, Hawaii, and a few in the top right I think) but I have no feelings about Michigan or Pennslyvania, for example.

 

[Cloud Strife]

A good point on the whole, but: I'm not sure that you stop "getting" online jokes or online satire the moment you hit your 50th birthday! Someone who has turned 50 in the 2020s will have had more than half their life, and the overwhelming majority of their adult life, in the internet era.

Of course not! But I'm thinking about suburban Georgia here, where you're far more likely to be spending time on the golf course than sharing cat pictures

Not sure what the result would be if WI and GA went Trump and the others (PA, MI, AZ) went Harris.

A quick count suggests 277 for Harris, 261 for Trump in your scenario.

As it stands, Harris needs to win the three northern swing states (WI, PA, MI) to ensure victory. She doesn't need AZ, NV or GA in this scenario, although I strongly suspect that she's going to go with Shapiro to ensure victory in PA.

As far as I can work out, her path to victory essentially involves taking both GA and PA, leaving her needing one from WI, MI and AZ.

 

[Cross City]

So what happens to the Republican Party if he does lose? I can’t see him standing again in four years time, but would he try and crowbar one of his family into a leadership position, or does it all just collapse in on itself (like his hair on a rainy day) and the party starts to become more moderate again..?

I fully expect them to keep trying with Trump until he gets his second term. There are no prominent moderate Republicans left, they've been purged much like Johnson purged centre-right Tories.

Remember when we all thought George Bush was a mentalist? Good times man.

 

[birchesgreen]

Its fascinating to think what happens if Trump loses but doesn't go away, his family has a stranglehold on the GOP, if Trump doesn't aim for 2028 it could be one of his children. I wonder if the old guard might have to consider breaking away to form a new right wing party.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Its fascinating to think what happens if Trump loses but doesn't go away, his family has a stranglehold on the GOP, if Trump doesn't aim for 2028 it could be one of his children. I wonder if the old guard might have to consider breaking away to form a new right wing party.

I suspect that in that case it will depend by how much he loses. If it's a similar result to 2020, then I'm pretty sure he or one of his children will be back, and he'll remain in control of the GOP. If on the other hand, Kamala is able to cement a bigger lead, and Trump ends up getting defeated very decisively, causing the Republicans to lose control of the House too, that's likely to give whatever remains of the anti-Trump faction in the Republicans more chance to mobilise.

 

[AlterEgo]

Trump and the Republicans haven’t landed a glove on Harris yet. It’s very strange.

 

[Bantamzen]

Trump and the Republicans haven’t landed a glove on Harris yet. It’s very strange.

I saw one YouTube commentator wondering if the Trump campaign will try to turn the "weird" narrative on it's head. They showed at least one clip of some Fox presenters saying something along the line of "but aren't we all weird?", implying that they might go with a "weird is interesting, weird is good" style of response. I very much doubt it will help them, Trump is in decline after taking on the boy Vance, but they've really been sucker-punched by Harris's arrival on the candidate scene. Get ready for even more weird!!

 

[AlterEgo]

I saw one YouTube commentator wondering if the Trump campaign will try to turn the "weird" narrative on it's head. They showed at least one clip of some Fox presenters saying something along the line of "but aren't we all weird?", implying that they might go with a "weird is interesting, weird is good" style of response. I very much doubt it will help them, Trump is in decline after taking on the boy Vance, but they've really been sucker-punched by Harris's arrival on the candidate scene. Get ready for even more weird!!

Vance wasn’t too bad a pick until the Dems changed the candidate. However since that’s happened he’s been quite poorly received. I’ve found that surprising to be honest; even a fair bit of core red support has found Vance an uninteresting - or at worst - weird candidate.

 

[Bantamzen]

Vance wasn’t too bad a pick until the Dems changed the candidate. However since that’s happened he’s been quite poorly received. I’ve found that surprising to be honest; even a fair bit of core red support has found Vance an uninteresting - or at worst - weird candidate.

I think he probably was still a bad pick, the two don't seem terribly comfortable with each other (remembering what Vance used to say about Trump). I think the difference now is that without Biden's age to use as a distraction, this ticket has been horribly exposed for what it really is.

 

[birchesgreen]

Vance is the cub of Donald the Bear. They needed Mrs Bear instead.

 

[ainsworth74]

I think he probably was still a bad pick, the two don't seem terribly comfortable with each other (remembering what Vance used to say about Trump). I think the difference now is that without Biden's age to use as a distraction, this ticket has been horribly exposed for what it really is.

Isn't the theory that Trump was talked into it by his sons? Donald Jr in particular? They get on well with Vance and considered him to be a great pick and so that's why Trump ended up picking him?

That being said I think you're right. I think Vance was always a poor pick but now that the candidate is Harris it exposes just how bad a pick it was.

 

[nlogax]

This particular moment in the US political process is surreal and unexpected. Harris still very much in the honeymoon period of her candidacy, GOP looks weak as anything with JD Vance's candidacy already on shaky ground and Trump coming across as particularly aimless and incoherent in his late night rants and interviews claiming Christians won't need to vote again after this year.

I really hope it lasts.

 

[Senex]

I wonder if Trump will be willing to have that on-air debate with Harris, who as an experienced prosecution lawyer seems much better prepared and able to stand up to his attempts at bullying off-the-point rudeness than Biden, despite his long political experience, has ever been.

 

[nw1]

Vance is the cub of Donald the Bear. They needed Mrs Bear instead.

Who's that, Marjorie Taylor Greene?

Just imagine that ticket. Of course it would be so extreme they would have no hope of winning any swing states with it.

 

[birchesgreen]

Who's that, Marjorie Taylor Greene?

Just imagine that ticket. Of course it would be so extreme they would have no hope of winning any swing states with it.

I think they should go for it! MAGA MEGAMIX baby!

 

[Cloud Strife]

I think he probably was still a bad pick, the two don't seem terribly comfortable with each other (remembering what Vance used to say about Trump). I think the difference now is that without Biden's age to use as a distraction, this ticket has been horribly exposed for what it really is.

I think he was a terrible pick. Trump needed someone with experience to get in there and fight in the trenches, but instead they've gone with someone who doesn't have the political savvy to understand where to go and why. I don't think he'll be able to speak to suburban America, nor will he resonate particularly loudly in the Rust Belt.

I suspect that he might have been chosen for the simple fact that he will be obedient and will do whatever he's told, unlike others.

 

[brad465]

Who's that, Marjorie Taylor Greene?

Just imagine that ticket. Of course it would be so extreme they would have no hope of winning any swing states with it.

Those two together would make Putin look like Gandhi.

 

[Busaholic]

Trump is probably suffering from Frontotemporal Dementia, formerly known as Hick's Disease. Although it's most commonly diagnosed in 45 to 65 year olds, 20-25% of diagnoses are after 65. It's a fairly common form of dementia, second only to Alzheimer's, and a lot of Trump's most recent behaviour would seem to fit well with its common aspects. Trump would never agree to be examined for it, or anything else,of course, anymore than he'd allow any of his medical records to see the light of day, particularly in relation to his right ear!

Unlike others on here, I think Trump's coming defeat will actually be the beginning of a fairly rapid repudiation of the man, his family, and all the remaining hangers-on. The way various Fox News presenters are now querying Trump supporters' statements and even interviewing Democrat senators etc in a much less biased way suggests to me Rupert Murdoch thinks Trump is going to lose bigly and Murdoch hates backing losers.