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It was widely considered in 2019 that the 80 seat majority gained by Boris Johnson would last more than one term. No government had lost an election from such a strong starting point.
I believe you'll find that a Government losing an election from a >80 seat majority in the Commons happened in both 1964 and 1970
If you measure it by % lead in vote share, then you may be more correct - the Tories had an 11.5% lead over Labour in % vote in 2019 (Tories 43.6%, Labour 32.1%). I'm not sure if any party ever has previously lost from such a strong lead.
It was widely considered in 2019 that the 80 seat majority gained by Boris Johnson would last more than one term. No government had lost an election from such a strong starting point. This Labour majority is in some ways relatively fragile in that it relied on other parties (especially Reform) taking votes away from the Conservatives. It does seem unlikely, but it’s not a given that couldn’t reverse at the next election, especially if Farage does something to alienate his voters.
It depends critically on whether Labour can make a significant improvement to enough people's lives before the next election. If they do then it's likely enough people will vote for them to get them a second term, although the tactical voting effect will be less strong with one of the tactical voting choice parties being the government. If things don't change much then I suspect votes would flow to Reform rather than back to the Tories.
I do not believe that Labour is in any way guaranteed to win the next general election.
For the latest election, it was sufficient for them not to be the Conservatives, and many people voted against the Conservatives rather than for Labour, not least because the figures for the share of the vote Labour received (very little increased on previous elections) showed this.
In 2019 people voted Conservative to "get Brexit done" and that's now a done deal.
The Conservatives will probably continue to make themselves totally unelectable by moving even further to the "right" in the next few years, so that will certainly help Labour next time round, but they (Labour) also need to be seen to be "delivering" on their promises this time round.
But if the Conservatives find a sensible approach and a sensible leader plus Labour isn't seen as "delivering" then the next election is in no way decided now.
If I were to put money on it, I'd probably go with Labour, but then I bet on the general election taking place in January 2025 and I was wrong on that too.
She was unhappy with the briefing notes and got Head of Civil Service to amend them on website. The version yesterday morning named her in a negative way, but Civil Service documents should show impartiality
I think that her bringing it to everyone’s attention by complaining made her look bad, although perhaps only to people who thought badly of her in the first place, maybe it looks good to her anti-woke supporters?
It wasn't a statement of truth, it was an opinion that the vast majority of people would agree with. The Civil Service should be impartial, they need to work with whoever is in government and getting involved in political spin does not help with that.
It wasn't a statement of truth, it was an opinion that the vast majority of people would agree with. The Civil Service should be impartial, they need to work with whoever is in government and getting involved in political spin does not help with that.
The Conservatives will probably continue to make themselves totally unelectable by moving even further to the "right" in the next few years, so that will certainly help Labour next time round, but they (Labour) also need to be seen to be "delivering" on their promises this time round.
But if the Conservatives find a sensible approach and a sensible leader plus Labour isn't seen as "delivering" then the next election is in no way decided now.
If I were to put money on it, I'd probably go with Labour, but then I bet on the general election taking place in January 2025 and I was wrong on that too.
To win next time they would have to find a middle-of-the-road leader- and at the moment, the favourites appear to be from the right.
Even if Labour slip up I mostly can't see them winning under Badenoch, Braverman or Jenrick - with one exception, see below.
Of all the possible candidates I think only Tugendhat and Hunt (if he stands) give them the possibility of winning the next election - but only if Labour slip up. This is also, IMO, the only route to a Tory majority government next time.
For one thing, all those yellow seats in the south have to go blue again, and that's not going to happen if a right-wing anti-woke militant is the leader.
There is one exception to the argument above though, which could provide the only route for someone like Badenoch, Braverman or Jenrick to become PM. That is, Reform gain around 100 seats next time. Under such a scenario, the Tories would only need around 226 seats (a conceivable number, even with a right winger) and we end up with the prospect of a Tory-Reform coalition. If so God help us; after America finally ditches Trump for good in 2029 (if he wins), we then get to "enjoy" our own Trumpian dystopian nightmare. PM Badenoch, Home Sec Braverman (again) and Foreign Sec Farage....
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It was widely considered in 2019 that the 80 seat majority gained by Boris Johnson would last more than one term. No government had lost an election from such a strong starting point. This Labour majority is in some ways relatively fragile in that it relied on other parties (especially Reform) taking votes away from the Conservatives. It does seem unlikely, but it’s not a given that couldn’t reverse at the next election, especially if Farage does something to alienate his voters.
I'd say that Reform maintaining or increasing their strength is the only way a right-wing Tory could end up as PM next time, via a Tory-Reform coalition (see above). However a moderate centre-right Tory of the pre-Boris type could possibly win - if Labour slip up and they choose one, of course.
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One bit of trivia I'll be interested to see is ... how far will you be able to travel without entering a Tory constituency. One of the extraordinary things in 1997 was that Labour and the LibDems took so many rural Tory seats that - if I recall correctly - it became possible to travel from Lands End to Hull without ever going through any Tory-held seat. And you could go Lands End to John O'Groats if you were willing to cross just one Tory seat (Ryedale in Yorkshire, as I recall). I wonder what the comparable situation will be tomorrow...
Not sure if this was ever answered but it appears you can't get through Devon. I had it in my head that you could go via the North Devon coast but sadly not. I was aware of Stride's and Cox's constituencies being Tory holds, but there seems to be a third in north-west Devon.
If you allow one Tory constituency, then you can ironically get all the way up to the Scottish Border (crossing the Severn Bridge and routing through Wales) before, ironically, being stopped at the true-blue Borders constituencies which form an impenetrable Blue Wall from coast to coast.
If you avoid Wales, you can almost do it but there's a small Tory bridge to cross just south of Birmingham.
There is one exception to the argument above though, which could provide the only route for someone like Badenoch, Braverman or Jenrick to become PM. That is, Reform gain around 100 seats next time. Under such a scenario, the Tories would only need around 226 seats (a conceivable number, even with a right winger) and we end up with the prospect of a Tory-Reform coalition. If so God help us; after America finally ditches Trump for good in 2029 (if he wins), we then get to "enjoy" our own Trumpian dystopian nightmare. PM Badenoch, Home Sec Braverman (again) and Foreign Sec Farage....
I'd say that Reform maintaining or increasing their strength is the only way a right-wing Tory could end up as PM next time, via a Tory-Reform coalition (see above).
I don't think that's very likely, because those 100 or seats voting Reform would be the ones that the Tories might otherwise win under a right-wing leader. For that scenario to happen they'd need a Tory leader who appealed to some of the less more moderate seats (such as those taken by the LibDems), and also was willing and able to make a coalition with Reform. Those two may be mutually exclusive.
It's entirely possible that Labour could lose. However, I suspect that many if the Lib Dems gains from the Tories will be held, which will make it harder for the Tories to get back in.
One threat to Labour is the Greens, as the did see their vote share rise.
One thing which is often overlooked if the spread of votes by partly by age group.
For example according to YouGov (survey of 35,000 people):
Using a sample of over 35,000 voters, YouGov looks at how voters voted at the 2024 election across factors like age, gender, class, education, income, work status, housing tenure and their vote at past elections
yougov.co.uk
Between 41% and 46% of those under 50 voted for Labour. That's a fairly stable base in those age groups. Where the left shift reduces is with the Greens where it's 18% for 18-24's but is only 7% for those 40-49's (although at the local secondary school in their "vote" for parliament it was a Green Party landslide, so expect this trend to continue).
On the right (combined Tory and Reform) it goes from 17% for 18-24 to 31% for 40-49 and all the way up to 61% for those over 70. To be blunt, several of those currently over 70 won't be voting next time, but many currently aged 13-18 (and maybe even a few aged 11-13 if those aged 16 can vote) will be.
Unless those aged 40-49 start to significantly shift their votes right by the time of the next election it's unlikely that at the next election we'll see the 50-59's voting as much for the right parties as this time:
40-49 / 50-59
Labour 42 / 34
Lib Dems 13 / 11
Green 7 / 5
Reform 14 / 9
Tories 17 / 24
Others 6 / 8
As such, it's unlikely that the Tories are going to find it easy to win next time. Their best bet is to move towards the centre again.
Reform is likely to be a difficult to predict, however as they tend to do well with those with lower final educational qualifications and a lot of people under 50 have a degree these days it may well be that they see their numbers hold broadly steady or fall slightly. Much depends on how those with a reform MP feel that their MP performs (the MP for Clacton going on a trip to the US within the first month may not be too happy if such trips happen too often).
Where the left shift reduces is with the Greens where it's 18% for 18-24's but is only 7% for those 40-49's (although at the local secondary school in their "vote" for parliament it was a Green Party landslide, so expect this trend to continue).
It will be interesting to see how this develops. It may be that as the idealistic young get more life experience become more pragmatic and choose to support a party that is more likely to win power but hopefully will deliver some green but realistic policies. This is different from the traditional trend of people getting more right wing as they get older, which some evidence suggests is no longer the case.
I don't think that's very likely, because those 100 or seats voting Reform would be the ones that the Tories might otherwise win under a right-wing leader. For that scenario to happen they'd need a Tory leader who appealed to some of the less more moderate seats (such as those taken by the LibDems), and also was willing and able to make a coalition with Reform. Those two may be mutually exclusive.
It could be, though, that the Red Wall will never vote Tory again; they only did in 2019 because Boris had a unique appeal and/or they had a problem uniquely with Corbyn. However, they could be quite prepared to vote Reform and that could be where the 100 Reform seats come from; essentially Red Wall seats plus a few in the East, as now.
By contrast, rural areas and small towns could revert to Tory even under someone like Badenoch or Jenrick - and you'd only need 100-odd seats flipping back to Tory and there's your 326.
Under such a scenario, the likes of Wantage and Henley could well remain with the Lib Dems and the likes of Worthing, Milton Keynes and Swindon could remain with Labour, but it wouldn't prevent a Tory-Reform coalition of 326 seats.
I think it's a worst-case scenario but one that is perhaps conceivable if all the cards fall into the wrong place. Perhaps a 1 in 10 chance of happening.
By contrast I can't see that Badenoch or Braverman could win "on their own" (without the help of Reform), as they would be unable to take the Red Wall back, and equally they would be unable to take back the southern Lib Dem seats. Someone like Hunt, however, conceivably could win back those Lib Dem seats if he ran on a centre-right, good-relations-with-EU platform, and thus win the election if Labour slipped up. This is, IMV, the most likely route to a Tory government of any sort (majority or coalition) next time.
I will also agree with @The Ham that the demographics are strongly against the Tories, with people perhaps getting into mid-life and still disfavouring them.
It wasn't a statement of truth, it was an opinion that the vast majority of people would agree with. The Civil Service should be impartial, they need to work with whoever is in government and getting involved in political spin does not help with that.
Are we talking about the same person who, according to her own statements, wanted to politicize the civil service in order to suppress opposing views? The same person who fired the head of the Treasury as one of her first official acts?
Are we talking about the same person who, according to her own statements, wanted to politicize the civil service in order to suppress opposing views? The same person who fired the head of the Treasury as one of her first official acts?
Are we talking about the same person who, according to her own statements, wanted to politicize the civil service in order to suppress opposing views? The same person who fired the head of the Treasury as one of her first official acts?
Yes. I disagree with Truss about almost everything but on this occasion it pains me to say she was right.
Such overt political points have no place in a civil service briefing on the Kings Speech and were quickly amended without any attempt by the Cabinet Secretary to defend them.
The Tory leadership election plans have been released, with candidates needing at least 10 MPs to back them, being narrowed down to 4 by the party conference, then to 2 soon after, before a member's vote culminating in election on the 2nd November this year:
A new Tory leader will be announced by 2 November under plans set out by the 1922 committee.
www.bbc.co.uk
The Conservatives are to start a three-month leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak this week, due to end with the announcement of a new Tory leader on 2 November.
Nominations will open on Wednesday, with candidates needing the backing of 10 MPs to enter the first round of voting.
MPs will narrow this down to four candidates, who will then have a chance to speak to party members at the Conservative conference which starts on 29 September.
MPs will then whittle those down to two candidates, with the final winner chosen by Conservative Party members in an online ballot.
Personally I'd prefer them to settle it via a cagefight tournament: each match requires premium rate tickets to watch in an arena, while TV viewers need a Sky Sports/BT Sport-style package to watch it. Despite this millions will be scrambling to pay for the privilege, particularly if the final is between Braverman and Badenoch, which will make the Euros look like Sunday league, with a huge economic boost to go with it.
Personally I'd prefer them to settle it via a cagefight tournament: each match requires premium rate tickets to watch in an arena, while TV viewers need a Sky Sports/BT Sport-style package to watch it. Despite this millions will be scrambling to pay for the privilege, particularly if the final is between Braverman and Badenoch, which will make the Euros look like Sunday league, with a huge economic boost to go with it.
The Tory leadership election plans have been released, with candidates needing at least 10 MPs to back them, being narrowed down to 4 by the party conference, then to 2 soon after, before a member's vote culminating in election on the 2nd November this year:
Leader election and results over a weekend, within two days everyone will have forgotten as a far more newsworthy poll will be sucking all the news bandwidth dry.
The Tory leadership election plans have been released, with candidates needing at least 10 MPs to back them, being narrowed down to 4 by the party conference, then to 2 soon after, before a member's vote culminating in election on the 2nd November this year:
When it was Sunak v Truss, the members reached the wrong decision.
When it was Sunak v Truss, the members reached the wrong decision.
What the Conservative Party needs now is a period of reflection, and a policy review to decide what they stand for in the future. That must partly be shaped by what the Labour government does over the next few years.
Whoever gets chosen this autumn is unlikely to be the leader when next they form the government.
The Tory leadership election plans have been released, with candidates needing at least 10 MPs to back them, being narrowed down to 4 by the party conference, then to 2 soon after, before a member's vote culminating in election on the 2nd November this year:
A new Tory leader will be announced by 2 November under plans set out by the 1922 committee.
www.bbc.co.uk
Personally I'd prefer them to settle it via a cagefight tournament: each match requires premium rate tickets to watch in an arena, while TV viewers need a Sky Sports/BT Sport-style package to watch it. Despite this millions will be scrambling to pay for the privilege, particularly if the final is between Braverman and Badenoch, which will make the Euros look like Sunday league, with a huge economic boost to go with it.
Assuming the following wish to stand:
Kemi Badenoch
James Cleverly
Priti Patel
Mel Stride
Robert Jenrick
Tom Tugenhadt
Victoria Atkins
Suella Braverman
and each need to receive ten nominations, then there's three I foresee not reaching that threshold (Stride, Atkins and Braverman.) I wouldn't imagine either Sunak or Hunt would agree to nominate anyone, though they'll vote. If I'm right, then five candidates go into battle tomorrow.
P.s. I think Braverman will elope to Reform very soon, especially after her performance in the Commons yesterday.
Nusrat Ghani, Judith Cummins and Caroline Nokes have been elected Deputy Speakers with Nusrat Ghani as Chairman of Ways and Means, Judith Cummins as First Deputy Chairman and Caroline Nokes as Second Deputy Chairman.
It is interesting that Lindsay Hoyle will be the only male Speaker.
First slightly contentious vote in the Commons now:
MPs have divided to vote on amendment D.
The amendment, tabled by the SNP, regrets that the King’s Speech “fails to include immediate measures to abolish the two-child benefit limit to universal credit.”
SNP, Corbyn and a few rebels will vote against the government and for the amendment.
6 or 7 will lose the Labour whip for 6 months it is suggested - Diane Abbott perhaps? John McDonnell for sure.
EDIT 7 Labour MPs including McDonnell but excluding Abbott voted for the amendment. Abbott did not vote for whatever reason.
And, yes, they’ve lost the Labour whip “for a period of time”, supposedly six months followed by a review on whether or not to let them back.
Of course the amendment was defeated 363-103, it was a symbolic rebellion.
Various news organisations reporting that bosses from Hitachi factory at Newton Aycliffe are meeting Louise Haigh in London tomorrow regarding future of factory with its lack of orders
Ahead of Wednesday's meeting, Ms Haigh said: “I am absolutely committed to supporting rail manufacturing in the UK and developing a long term strategy to secure the industry's sustainable future.
“We know how important rail manufacturing is to this region, which is why this Government won’t sit on our hands.
“The Department for Transport will work swiftly with Hitachi over the coming months on options to safeguard jobs and secure a sustainable future for manufacturing at Newton Aycliffe."
What the Conservative Party needs now is a period of reflection, and a policy review to decide what they stand for in the future. That must partly be shaped by what the Labour government does over the next few years.
Whoever gets chosen this autumn is unlikely to be the leader when next they form the government.
First slightly contentious vote in the Commons now:
SNP, Corbyn and a few rebels will vote against the government and for the amendment.
6 or 7 will lose the Labour whip for 6 months it is suggested - Diane Abbott perhaps? John McDonnell for sure.
EDIT 7 Labour MPs including McDonnell but excluding Abbott voted for the amendment. Abbott did not vote for whatever reason.
And, yes, they’ve lost the Labour whip “for a period of time”, supposedly six months followed by a review on whether or not to let them back.
Of course the amendment was defeated 363-103, it was a symbolic rebellion.
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yougov.co.uk
www.bbc.co.uk
