WCML after HS2 opens

[LadyVee]

Does anyone know what might happen to passenger services on the West Coast Main Line after High Speed 2 opens?

Will there be the option to travel on the WCML at cheaper prices than present?
Will passenger trains even run or will it all be freight?
Will the current fast services still run, such as Euston to Preston in 2 hours, as opposed to the meandering 3.5 hour trip through the West Midlands?

 

[Liam L]

Will passenger trains even run or will it all be freight?

There will still be passenger services, because there are local stops on the line which will still need to be served by LNR. Not sure on what will happen with Avanti services on the route (as I believe they are set to run the HS2 service as part of the franchise agreement) - I'm sure they will still have a presence on WCML. HS2 will allow for more freight trains so hopefully a increase in that.

 

[jfollows]

Passenger trains will continue to run, they may no longer run at 125mph and they will call at more intermediate stations which will vastly improve the options for connecting services to places such as Coventry, Northampton and Leicester, and most will be much more likely to call at places such as Milton Keynes and Watford Junction.
Fares will be what the market can bear, which probably means lower than today in real terms.
Because of the slower trains with more stops, London-Preston will be slower than today over the same route but there will be faster services part-using HS2 of course.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Aug 2023 ==

But it's been discussed before, for example https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/the-wcml-after-hs2.244250/

 

[Bletchleyite]

Nothing is totally firm, but with Phases 1-2B built you'd have an increased local service south of Manchester and on the LNR south WCML services, and a WCML long distance service broadly similar to what presently calls at Milton Keynes Central albeit with more stops. The version I saw had North Wales instead of Liverpool, and two rather than one semifast Birminghams, and also one Manchester. All would call at MKC and half, alternately, at Rugby and Watford Jn. Doubling the Trent Valley local service is also a possibility.

With full HS2 built including Golborne a classic WCML service to Preston is unlikely; London-Scotland via Brum would be replaced by a HS2 Brum-Scotland service. If you wanted to travel on the classic WCML going via Manchester would be the way (this is often a good idea anyway at present as the trains are often less crowded and the fares cheaper).

 

[Bald Rick]

Will the current fast services still run, such as Euston to Preston in 2 hours

To pick up on this point - yes the Euston to Preston services will still run, but taking about an hour and a half and via HS2.

 

[adamedwards]

Years ago Modern Railways pointed out Woking had 9 fast trains per hour to Waterloo but Milton Keynes had only 3, as not enough capacity to stop more. So one could imagine a slimmed down non-HS2 offer where most trains stop at Milton Keynes. The Chester and north Wales services will still have to run and there will still need to be a Manchester to London service (slower) to join up all the places HS2 does not serve. (e.g. Euston - Milton Keynes - Rugby - Nuneaton - Lichfield or Tamworth - Stoke - Macc - Stockport - Manchester) But we are now into speculation so this thread is in the wrong place.

 

[12LDA28C]

Years ago Modern Railways pointed out Woking had 9 fast trains per hour to Waterloo but Milton Keynes had only 3, as not enough capacity to stop more. So one could imagine a slimmed down non-HS2 offer where most trains stop at Milton Keynes. The Chester and north Wales services will still have to run and there will still need to be a Manchester to London service (slower) to join up all the places HS2 does not serve. (e.g. Euston - Milton Keynes - Rugby - Nuneaton - Lichfield or Tamworth - Stoke - Macc - Stockport - Manchester) But we are now into speculation so this thread is in the wrong place.

Off topic but what a bizarre comparison. Woking is 24 miles from Waterloo, Milton Keynes is 50 miles from Euston. Basingstoke would have been a better comparison.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Years ago Modern Railways pointed out Woking had 9 fast trains per hour to Waterloo but Milton Keynes had only 3, as not enough capacity to stop more. So one could imagine a slimmed down non-HS2 offer where most trains stop at Milton Keynes. The Chester and north Wales services will still have to run and there will still need to be a Manchester to London service (slower) to join up all the places HS2 does not serve. (e.g. Euston - Milton Keynes - Rugby - Nuneaton - Lichfield or Tamworth - Stoke - Macc - Stockport - Manchester) But we are now into speculation so this thread is in the wrong place.

This thread can only be semi-speculative at best because no final decisions have been made. Probably best just to move it into the speculative forum.

 

[Hadders]

Coventry is not served by HS2 so I believe there will still be fast trains on the WCML to serve it.

In principle, it should be possible for more fast trains to serve places like Milton Keynes and also improve the service at places like Leighton Buzzard, Rugby, Nuneaton etc.

HS2 and it’s stakeholders have really missed a trick by focusing on the speed rather than the capacity benefits the new line will unlock.

 

[Bletchleyite]

HS2 and it’s stakeholders have really missed a trick by focusing on the speed rather than the capacity benefits the new line will unlock.

Very much so. If it had been called the "London, Birmingham and Manchester Rail Capacity Project" far more people would understand what it was really for.

 

[350401]

Reading the Integrated Rail Plan, it suggests that at least 1 tph from Manchester to Euston will remain using the WCML, but this will be a semi-fast stopping service, so will stop at more places than now, including Nuneaton and Milton Keynes. Given that the proposed 2b service pattern suggests that Macclesfield will gain a HS2 service via Handacre, I'd put money on this going via Wilmslow and Crewe.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Reading the Integrated Rail Plan, it suggests that at least 1 tph from Manchester to Euston will remain using the WCML, but this will be a semi-fast stopping service, so will stop at more places than now, including Nuneaton and Milton Keynes. Given that the proposed 2b service pattern suggests that Macclesfield will gain a HS2 service via Handacre, I'd put money on this going via Wilmslow and Crewe.

The proposals I've seen seem all to have a theme of being:

1 x Manchester
1 x North Wales
2 x Birmingham.

Generally with more stops. Some suggest all four would call at Watford, MKC and Rugby, and others suggest various other patterns, like all calling at MKC and the others alternating Rugby and Watford, and others still suggest the North Wales being non stop to Crewe to compensate for it not being on HS2. I've also seen options involving e.g. the Manchester continuing to Scotland instead of the through service via Brum and the Airport-Scotland service.

 

[London Trains]

I would expect Avanti's service to roughly be this:

2tph Wolverhampton (Watford Jct, MKC, Rugby, Coventry, Bham Intl, Bham New St, Sandwell & Dudley)

1tph Chester/North Wales (MKC, Crewe...)

1tph Manchester Picc (MKC, Rugby?, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)

 

[Sorcerer]

As well as increasing stopping patterns I would also imagine that the fast line speed will come down permanently since there will be no need for tilting trains and the Pendolinos will be meeting the end of their lifespans. The four 2011 sets might be left over to run a few classic line services but four individual sets is not enough to justify 125mph operations when most trains won't be reaching those speeds anymore, and thus will probably have tilt disabled. That's just speculation on my half of course but I can't imagine having tilt-based speeds on a line that will mostly be non-tilting stock.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Will the current fast services still run, such as Euston to Preston in 2 hours, as opposed to the meandering 3.5 hour trip through the West Midlands?

Euston-Preston(-Glasgow) will be on HS2, and about half an hour quicker than now.
It will actually run via the "West Midlands" (Birmingham Interchange) but at very high speed to at least Lichfield and later Crewe.
Birmingham-Preston-Scotland might also go on HS2 on a quicker schedule, or it might continue on its present route via Wolverhampton.
The government of the day will decide service patterns and fares.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Aug 2023 ==

As well as increasing stopping patterns I would also imagine that the fast line speed will come down permanently since there will be no need for tilting trains and the Pendolinos will be meeting the end of their lifespans. The four 2011 sets might be left over to run a few classic line services but four individual sets is not enough to justify 125mph operations when most trains won't be reaching those speeds anymore, and thus will probably have tilt disabled. That's just speculation on my half of course but I can't imagine having tilt-based speeds on a line that will mostly be non-tilting stock.

The line-speed solution north of Crewe, for HS2 trains and others, still has to worked out.
It's very likely 125mph will be retained on the WCML, if over shorter distances, with non-tilt trains like the Hitachi 80x using it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The 80x will likely still be in service - they're 20 years newer than the Pendolinos. I doubt there are enough of them to run all of it, but I could see the 350s (which by then will be very old) being replaced with 125mph non-tilt commuter style stock (something a bit 395-esque) and the 730s operating the stopping services.

 

[SynthD]

Would a speed limit of 110 up to Handsacre/Crewe, and 125 beyond, add capacity? I think so, and cheaper maintenance.

At Milton Keynes in the next hour, northbound, five pass and seven call (not including terminators). Once HS2 reaches Crewe I wonder what that split will become.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would a speed limit of 110 up to Handsacre/Crewe, and 125 beyond, add capacity? I think so, and cheaper maintenance.

At Milton Keynes in the next hour, northbound, five pass and seven call (not including terminators). Once HS2 reaches Crewe I wonder what that split will become.

Unless they do a peak Northampton non-stop, I would say it's most likely that everything will call, or if it doesn't the only one not to will be the North Wales if it runs non stop Euston to Crewe to try to get close to the journey time you'd get were it on HS2 but stopping at Old Oak and Birmingham Interchange.

 

[RooseWithAZed]

HS2 and it’s stakeholders have really missed a trick by focusing on the speed rather than the capacity benefits the new line will unlock.

To be honest, this is where I see HS2 going anyway. It's going, or gone, from "it's going to be brilliant and fast and British and it's going to help decentralise the country" to "capacity relief for the southern bit of the WCML". Perhaps a bit of misplaced optimism on my part there though.

Is there any idea of what services will run to Lancaster and how fast they'll be? Changing in Manchester is not great because I've seen that if any single part of Manchester city centre transport falls over, it can end up with the regional trains e.g Barrow-Airport becoming crush loaded with Mancunians in between ~Deansgate and Oxford Road.

 

[Bletchleyite]

To be honest, this is where I see HS2 going anyway. It's going, or gone, from "it's going to be brilliant and fast and British and it's going to help decentralise the country" to "capacity relief for the southern bit of the WCML". Perhaps a bit of misplaced optimism on my part there though.

A refreshing bit of honesty as that's what it was always for (though sadly commuting reductions mean it's less necessary - if you ran everything south of Northampton at 12.350/10.730 there'll be no more capacity needed for years now). At least in full it'll also provide south Birmingham and south Manchester benefits too, but that's why Phase 2B is so important!

Is there any idea of what services will run to Lancaster and how fast they'll be? Changing in Manchester is not great because I've seen that if any single part of Manchester city centre transport falls over, it can end up with the regional trains e.g Barrow-Airport becoming crush loaded with Mancunians in between ~Deansgate and Oxford Road.

I almost always go via Manchester if going to the north WCML from MKC, and I've not seen what you experience at all (plus it's less likely with some of the Cumbria trains now being 6 car). Much more civlised to have a short run down to Piccadilly then time to pop to a shop for some food for the last bit and board at a terminus.

But back on topic. I believe the plan for Lancaster is a dedicated 1tph HS2 200m service, which will call at Preston, Wigan NW, Warrington BQ, Crewe, Birmingham Interchange, OOC and Euston. But anything could change by then! Travel to Scotland would be provided by the Birmingham-Scotland HS2 service and what runs from Manchester. The reason for this is that a 200m 1tph Euston-Glasgow service would become too overcrowded if it served the local stations, so that one will, north of Crewe, call at Preston and Carlisle only.

Associated to this there'll probably need to be a re-look at the Windermere service pattern as Oxenholme won't be as useful a connectional node, so more through services to at least Lancaster will be necessary to keep it useful*. Penrith and Oxenholme are potentially real losers as they are likely to have no London service at all post HS2, only Birmingham and Manchester. This was originally true of Lancaster too (and still could be) but there was a lot of shouting and later proposals extended the Preston HS2 "semifast" to Lancaster.

* My personal view is that now enough resources are dedicated to these two services that they should run as a 6 car train (or two of whatever Northern is planning to order as bi-modes) from Manchester Airport every hour splitting/joining at Lancaster, though that would require infrastructure work, most notably an extra platform at Oxenholme or some other arrangement to allow a train to enter the branch with the outbound one still at Oxenholme.

 

[Energy]

(though sadly commuting reductions mean it's less necessary - if you ran everything south of Northampton at 12.350/10.730 there'll be no more capacity needed for years now)

Not entirely. While commuting into Euston isn't as necessary, there are still journeys in which further regional connection post HS2 will help. For example, only 1tp2h currently stops at both Nuneaton and Rugby.

1 x Manchester
1 x North Wales
2 x Birmingham.

Sounds about right. The existing 805s and 807s will probably be enough.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not entirely. While commuting into Euston isn't as necessary, there are still journeys in which further regional connection post HS2 will help. For example, only 1tp2h currently stops at both Nuneaton and Rugby.

Yer wot? The LNR Trent Valley service serves both hourly. Don't be fooled by the reduced service during engineering works that are coming up.

Sounds about right. The existing 805s and 807s will probably be enough.

I could see, as mentioned above, the Birminghams becoming "fast LNRs" with more commuter-like but 125mph stock, or even operated at 110mph using 730s, with separate local Birmingham-Cov and Rugby-Euston calling at Wolverton, MKC, Bletchley and Leighton. If this was the case, the 80x would be enough for the North Wales and Manchester services, I think otherwise they'd be a bit short. By then the 350s will be up for replacement (but the 730s not) so how that would be I guess would influence the form that order took.

Ten coaches of 730 twice an hour calling at Watford, MKC, Rugby, Coventry and New St would probably provide pretty well for that "semifast" market.

 

[Energy]

Yer wot? The LNR Trent Valley service serves both hourly. Don't be fooled by the reduced service during engineering works that are coming up.

Fair enough. It was 1tp2h on 3rd July though I can't find any engineering works on that date.

I could see, as mentioned above, the Birminghams becoming "fast LNRs" with more commuter-like but 125mph stock, or even operated at 110mph. If this was the case, the 80x would be enough for the North Wales and Manchester services, I think otherwise they'd be a bit short.

They'd struggle with the 2nd Birmingham with the 805/807s. The rest they already serve (swap Liverpool to Manchester).

 

[Bletchleyite]

They'd struggle with the 2nd Birmingham with the 805/807s. The rest they already serve (swap Liverpool to Manchester).

Yeah, my thought is that because Birmingham is a more local market and will have HS2 service that you could just palm that off on "LNR" to operate using commuter stock. Would I guess to an extent depend on what was to be proposed for the 350 replacement order, as that'll be about when that needs to happen. 10.730 would be more capacity and you'd only lose a few minutes on a Brum semifast.

 

[Energy]

Yeah, my thought is that because Birmingham is a more local market and will have HS2 service that you could just palm that off on "LNR" to operate using commuter stock. Would I guess to an extent depend on what was to be proposed for the 350 replacement order, as that'll be about when that needs to happen.

LNWR already sign to Crewe so the Birmingham and Manchester services would make sense to switch over. North Wales would be more interesting.

 

[PTR 444]

I would expect the following to operate from Euston on the classic WCML:

Intercity

• 2tph to Birmingham
• 1tph to Manchester
• 1tph to North Wales
• All of the above calling at Watford Junction, MKC and Rugby

Regional/Commuter

• 2tph semi-fast to Tring
• 2tph stopping to Milton Keynes Central
• 2tph fast to Northampton
• 2tph semi-fast to Birmingham via Northampton
• 2tph to Crewe via Trent Valley stations

And up to 4tph freight paths in addition to the above

 

[zwk500]

Not the first thread on this,

WCML Passenger Services after HS2

Reading the thread about the future of HS2, I was wondering what passenger services are planned to run on the WCML after HS2 opens (to either Birmingham or Crewe) especially for those travelling from/to north of Crewe. Is a direct service still planned to run from say Preston, Wigan and...

www.railforums.co.uk

The WCML after HS2

Hi Call me dumb but once HS2 is built and all the longer distance passenger traffic has been moved over, what's going to happen on the old WCML south of Crewe? Will people from places like Milton Keynes and Rugby have to catch loads of stopping trains just to get to Cheshire to catch the faster...

www.railforums.co.uk

From the second thread, see page 26-27: https://assets.publishing.service.g...e/939905/full-business-case-hs2-phase-one.pdf (with the MONUMENTAL caveat that this was before things started getting descoped).

 

[The Planner]

Would a speed limit of 110 up to Handsacre/Crewe, and 125 beyond, add capacity? I think so, and cheaper maintenance.

Won't make maintenance any cheaper as the quantum of services is unlikely to reduce enough. It will still be highest category of track.

 

[Bald Rick]

I don’t know why we have this debate so often with speculation.

The indicative plan (which of course is subject to change) is as below. This is published in the HS2 full business case, which is a public document. Variations are being worked on, but they are variations of this, and not a complete rehash




== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Aug 2023 ==

Would a speed limit of 110 up to Handsacre/Crewe, and 125 beyond, add capacity? I think so, and cheaper maintenance.

No, it wouldn’t add capacity.

And the driver of maintenance on the line on future will be freight, not the linespeed of the fastest trains.

 

[NoRoute]

Population of:
Milton Keynes ~288,000
Northampton ~239,000
Rugby ~107,000
Wolverton ~16,000
Long Buckby ~4,500

So if you were designing a railway service, your two biggest markets are Milton Keynes and Northampton, so why would you provide Northampton with the same service level as Wolverton or Long Buckby which are barely a small fraction of the size, it makes no economic sense.