Scotrail HST alternatives?

[chuff chuff]

The sets ran at 125mph on the ECML when deldelivered

The power cars and coaches are still marked up at 125mph and there ain't anything wrong with the brakes.The classic sets were running at reduced speeds while better brake pads were sorted.

 

[John Bishop]

26 5-car IEPs is probably going to cost a signifiicantly greater amount to lease than the current fleet.

Does any Scotrail trains currently operate at above 100mph? 2+4 HSTs are limited to 100mph due to brakeforce limits.

I would be quite happy to bet it wouldn’t. The fuel bill for the fleet is eye watering, not to mention the number of rakes sat in bits parked up unusable. Then there’s the reliability factor as well.

As a driver of these sets, they are well and truly past their best and provide a very poor in cab experience and I know the vast majority of my colleagues feel the same way. They will not be missed by guards, fitters and drivers alike.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As a driver of these sets, they are well and truly past their best and provide a very poor in cab experience and I know the vast majority of my colleagues feel the same way. They will not be missed by guards, fitters and drivers alike.

Or passengers, if the interior of the 80x was to a decent standard, e.g. using the TfW seat cushion for Sophias or the alternative seat used by Lumo and Avanti. They're old and unreliable, and it shows.

 

[chuff chuff]

As a driver of these sets, they are well and truly past their best and provide a very poor in cab experience and I know the vast majority of my colleagues feel the same way. They will not be missed by guards, fitters and drivers alike.

I'm one of the minority who after thirty odd years of dreary dmu's actually enjoy the hst's though it has to be said they are past it and not a good fit for scotrail after years of no locomotives and I think there is more than a certain amount of disinterest from abelio and transport scotland when the true costs of introducing an aging fleet that need a lot more tlc.

 

[jagardner1984]

Surely as has been discussed many times before, the issue is the timescale. Clearly Scotrail are not likely to have any stock they are not currently in possession of / are trained for in the next 8 weeks, and presumably if there are 0 HSTs on the rails from August, that will place a big strain on the Sprinter / Turbostar fleets too.

So as much as ASLEF may have a point (not disputing it, but I lack the technical knowledge to say one way or the other) - the outcome in the short term will be an indisputably less reliable railway in Scotland by any of the measures Joe Public measures it by, for example, is there a train there ? Is there a seat on it ? - other concerns are somewhat secondary (seat quality etc).

Perhaps a clear resolution on the way forward, for example tendering for the replacement stock, and a discussion of what that would be and when, might mitigate some of the undoubted frustrations of the staff, and users, of Scotrail's HSTs

 

[PG]

Carriage end collision pillars failed.

Anyone who has had any dealings with the Scotrail HST fleet will be aware of the extent of the corrosion within the carriage body and roof areas.

Perhaps it’s time for the SG to finally bite the bullet and invest in new rolling stock to replace the HST rather than pouring more good money after bad in this failed project.

I'm inclined to agree with you. Far greater than anticipated corrosion was a factor in the delay with Wabtec refurbishing the coaches. It indeed does seem that the structural integrity is insufficient.

We are now a good 8+ years on from when the plans to run these trains was developed, it's time for a different plan whatever that may be.

 

[hexagon789]

it's time for a different plan whatever that may be.

There already is a plan, but that's a subject for another thread not this one.

 

[John Bishop]

There already is a plan, but that's a subject for another thread not this one.

Really? I’m not aware of any plan at the moment to replace the HSTs less any order placed.

 

[hexagon789]

Really? I’m not aware of any plan at the moment to replace the HSTs less any order placed.

It isn't like that, it's more an outline of what would be put in the tender for their eventual replacement. There are no firm timescales.

 

[John Bishop]

It isn't like that, it's more an outline of what would be put in the tender for their eventual replacement. There are no firm timescales.

Which is precisely the problem we’re up against. It’s about time the SG started to come up with the goods.

 

[chuff chuff]

Which is precisely the problem we’re up against. It’s about time the SG started to come up with the goods.

That,unfortunately it was in the news last week I think it was that there is a black hole in the SG budget of 1bn plus for the next few years.

 

[John Bishop]

As there’s no stock available to replace them then perhaps the Scottish Government should hire in road coaches to replace the I7C service and make the drivers redundant instead. That might concentrate ASLEF minds a bit.

Ah, that’s what it’s about - another Scottish anti-HST rant. I’d suggest the biggest issue with the ScotRail HST fleet is staff attitudes.

And I’d suggest you educate yourself on the actual problems with the fleet up here. What an incredibly naive and insulting statement to make to all those busting a gut on a daily basis trying to make the Fleet work and perform. I’m guessing you aren’t a SR driver/ guard/ fitter who have to deal with these trains on a day to day basis. So no, it’s not an “anti-HST rant”. Next time you’re in the area, try and speak to some staff and get their honest opinion on them- based on fact and personal experience!

 

[43096]

And I’d suggest you educate yourself on the actual problems with the fleet up here. What an incredibly naive and insulting statement to make to all those busting a gut on a daily basis trying to make the Fleet work and perform. I’m guessing you aren’t a SR driver/ guard/ fitter who have to deal with these trains on a day to day basis. So no, it’s not an “anti-HST rant”. Next time you’re in the area, try and speak to some staff and get their honest opinion on them- based on fact and personal experience!

You've been against them from the start. Not an iota of positivity, just a negative attitude.

It's interesting that no-one else has a problem with them. Just ScotRail and its staff. Go figure.

 

[XAM2175]

Really? I’m not aware of any plan at the moment to replace the HSTs less any order placed.

Which is precisely the problem we’re up against. It’s about time the SG started to come up with the goods.

There is a plan; it's covered in the fifth post in this very thread for a start. It just has the small problem of being predicated on the HSTs lasting another twelve-ish years in service.

The timing of the HST replacement also influences and is influenced by the plan to replace the 156s, 318s, and 320s on this side of 2030.

For what it's worth, I was suggesting earlier in the thread that the HST replacement should be brought forward - but in the form of a new-build order rather than another cack-handed cascade. If that were to happen though, the actual entry into service would still be years away (after the tender process, the inevitable lawsuits from the losing tenderers, design finalisation, construction, approvals, trials, etc etc). And this has to be paid for as capital expenditure which is difficult as the Scottish Government do actually have a finite budget - though a suitably predatory financier could perhaps come up with a way of kicking a big portion of the costs down the road (read: convert them to operational expenditure) a la the IEP arrangement.

However, even if another cack-handed cascade were to be chosen, that's still going to be a year or two's wait at minimum. How much movement do ASLEF realistically expect to see in the near future either way?

 

[RobShipway]

How many of the routes that are used by the Scotrail HST fleet are going to be electrified in the next 10 - 15 years?

My understanding from the point of Scotrail using the HST fleet, is that it would help with enabling some class 170 units to be moved to over areas of the country, but would also act as a stop gap prior to electrification of many routes in Scotland. Once that was nearing completion, then the leasing of longer AT200 class 385 5 car trains or AT300 class 8xx trains would begin. The other alternative being using the class 379 units, if they are in any state that they can be used by that time.

But if there is a whole in the budget, as has been mentioned in a post previously I cannot see the what I mention above happening for at least another 10 - 20 years. I also cannot see any replacement for 156s, 318s, and 320s this side of 2030 to be honest. It maybe a case of staggering along until you get to the point that the class 170 units also need replacing, but by then hopefully there is a lot more routes within Scotland that have been electrified.

Other than possibly leasing diesel or bi-mode CAF Civity units, I cannot see any option for Scotrail in the short term that could possibly occur within the next 2 years as being replacements for the HST fleet. The only other possibility would be loco hauled push/pull carriages with diesel engines either end. Other than possibly the CAF Nova 3 fleet if it is released from TPE, I cannot see any carriages that could be used on the Scotrail services.

 

[Falcon1200]

When the plan for Scotrail HSTs was first announced, I was delighted, as IMHO these trains, despite their age, provide a far more pleasant travelling experience than any type of DMU, past or present. But clearly the challenges of firstly upgrading them to modern requirements (eg sliding doors) and now maintaining them in service were greatly underestimated, if not unknown. Of course they will have to be replaced, and it is surprising that, getting on for 3 years since Carmont, there appears to be no concrete plan.

But one would have to ask ASLEF, what suddenly makes these trains unsafe to drive from August onwards; if the issue is simply that older trains should not be allowed to operate, what is their policy regarding say Class 318, 37 years old and counting, no replacement plan AFAIK; or 156, 34 years old and counting, also no replacement plan other than the one diagram which will be replaced by an EMU when Barrhead goes live, and a few more when East Kilbride gets its wires; The replacements for which may well be equally ancient EMUs!

Should the HST fleet be 'blacked' from August onwards there is no possible way in which Scotrail could maintain its present timetable with its existing fleet, and severe service cuts would be necessary, perhaps involving withdrawal of service from entire routes such as the Far North and Kyle lines, to allow the Class 158 sets so released to work Glasgow and Edinburgh to Aberdeen and Inverness routes. Hopefully it will not come to that and the existing mitigations to avoid a repeat of Carmont, such as automatic speed restrictions when heavy rain is forecast, will be agreed to be sufficient.

 

[John Bishop]

You've been against them from the start. Not an iota of positivity, just a negative attitude.

It's interesting that no-one else has a problem with them. Just ScotRail and its staff. Go figure.

I’ve no idea where you’re coming up with that from. Do I know you? You seem to be very knowledgeable about the SR operation and its staff! Can I ask what role you do and where your based please, I’m curious.

 

[Railperf]

Any replacement stock has to fit in with potential electrification plans. It has been stated that there are plans to electrify Edinburgh/ Glasgow to Aberdeen and Inverness at some point. So a fleet of bi-mode trains would seem to fit the job. Current proven designs for the UK are the \Hitachi built Class 80x family of trains, and Class 755/x FLIRT bi-modes built by Stadler. From my travels in Scotland - the main issues for journey times seem to be as follows:
Lots of single line running, plenty of track and signalling that needs to be upgraded to modern standards to allow faster speeds and more capacity.
Lots of stations - whose track layouts and signalling could be streamlined to improve higher speeds.
Mainly diesel running - as we know DMU's accelerate much slower than EMU's and their lower power to weight ratio means they struggle to maintain linespeed on the steeper inclines.
In diesel mode, the bi-mode Class 755/4 units perform like modern |(class 350/360 etc). Plus the level floor boarding and quality interiors offer a superior customer experience to the Class 80x. The faster acceleration from station stops will improve journey times In the meantime - any electrification and resignalling will all help contribute to faster journey times.

 

[snowball]

It's early enough in the Scottish decarbonisation plan that it's difficult for outside observers (like most of us here) to form an impression of how fast or slowly the overall plan will progress, and therefore it's hard to know what sort of stock cascades will or won't be possible - involving trains that haven't yet been ordered and for which specs have not yet been published.

 

[WAB]

As I see it, there are five scenarios:

1. Class 222s acquired from East Mids, with the HSTs eked out until 2025 when the 222s will likely become available. They'll be worn out by the time electrification arrives at any rate.
   • Even if rumours regarding other TOCs being interested are true, there will still be enough to cover the work of the HSTs.
   • They are the only InterCity diesel fleet becoming available in sufficient numbers for the foreseeable future.
2. Gather an assortment of whatever 156s and 158s are going spare
   • In the short term, there are nowhere near enough to cover the HSTs so short-forms will become the norm.
   • Long term, the 156s and 158s are ageing and won't last much longer, certainly not until electrification arrive.
   • Not sure the optics of English hand-me-downs and InterCity fleets being replaced with clapped out regional units would be popular with ScotGov.
3. Procure an InterCity bimodal fleet, eking out the HSTs in the interim.
   • Is this sexy enough to get money from ScotGov?
   • Long lead time.
4. Procure an regional bimodal fleet, eking out the HSTs in the interim.
   • Again, is this sexy enough to get money from ScotGov?
   • Long lead time.
   • Degraded comfort and facilities.
5. Do nothing (and watch the service collapse)

It all depends on whether the unions will accept HSTs in the short term with a concrete replacement plan by 2025, or whether they'll insist on them going now. In lieu of new stock, 222s are probably the best option.

 

[cf111]

In lieu of new stock, 222s are probably the best option.

I've thought this since it became clear that the HST experiment was decending into farce, certainly some kind of 22x unit.

For what it's worth, as a passenger, I would be more than content with the 222s. I've not travelled on them very much but they are the gold standard of the Voyager type trains, and I say that as someone who quite likes the 220/221s. In all honesty I'd take anything that has enough capacity and is reliable.

 

[CBlue]

And I’d suggest you educate yourself on the actual problems with the fleet up here. What an incredibly naive and insulting statement to make to all those busting a gut on a daily basis trying to make the Fleet work and perform. I’m guessing you aren’t a SR driver/ guard/ fitter who have to deal with these trains on a day to day basis. So no, it’s not an “anti-HST rant”. Next time you’re in the area, try and speak to some staff and get their honest opinion on them- based on fact and personal experience!

You've been against them from the start. Not an iota of positivity, just a negative attitude.

It's interesting that no-one else has a problem with them. Just ScotRail and its staff. Go figure.

I'm not scotrail staff and can easily see why anyone would have a problem with the issues @John Bishop raises. It doesn't appear to be "negativity", more like realism! Interestingly there were similar comments from one or two GWR staff on here over the past year or so about how worn out the Castle sets were down South. As much as you'd appear to like the HST's to go on forever, they're rapidly approaching the end of their usable service life. Getting shirty on a railway forum isn't going to change that, with respect.

 

[Killingworth]

I've thought this since it became clear that the HST experiment was decending into farce, certainly some kind of 22x unit.

For what it's worth, as a passenger, I would be more than content with the 222s. I've not travelled on them very much but they are the gold standard of the Voyager type trains, and I say that as someone who quite likes the 220/221s. In all honesty I'd take anything that has enough capacity and is reliable.

If agreed they'd need refurbishment for intoduction from 2025 onwards. 20 year old to replace almost 50. About the right numbers too. Sounds a good fit until electrification in another 20 or so years?

 

[cf111]

If agreed they'd need refurbishment for intoduction from 2025 onwards. 20 year old to replace almost 50. About the right numbers too. Sounds a good fit until electrification in another 20 or so years?

It sounds reasonable to me, but you could write what I know about rolling stock procurement on the back of a stamp and still have room for the address .

Are the 222s generally considered to be reliable units?

 

[gingertom]

It sounds reasonable to me, but you could write what I know about rolling stock procurement on the back of a stamp and still have room for the address .

Are the 222s generally considered to be reliable units?

I believe the 222s are reliable, but bringing a fleet up to Scotland won't bring the maintainers. Haymarket has done their best with the HST fleet but has no experience of the 222s, so reliability will suffer until they get to grips with their quirks- a steep learning curve. And it's another class for the drivers & guards to learn for yet another interim period. Best to bite the bullet and start the procurement process for their replacement and hope the HSTs can be nursed along until the introduction of the new fleet. There was a post earlier about a 6-car Stadler Flirt with 2x power modules in the middle, 2 diesel packs and 2 battery packs each, that looked like it was paying homage to the APT. This could actually work, and once the I7C lines get fully wired the power packs can be redeployed elsewhere. This would mean the HST replacement would have to work hand in hand with the 156/158/170 replacement, which is also having to work hand in hand with the 318/320/334 replacement. 745s, 755s and variations of would work well across Scotland.

 

[WAB]

I've thought this since it became clear that the HST experiment was decending into farce, certainly some kind of 22x unit.

If it is true that GC are getting 10x221s, then it'll have to be 222s unless they want to increase 158 diagrams and increase booked single units as a result.

I believe the 222s are reliable, but bringing a fleet up to Scotland won't bring the maintainers. Haymarket has done their best with the HST fleet but has no experience of the 222s, so reliability will suffer until they get to grips with their quirks- a steep learning curve. And it's another class for the drivers & guards to learn for yet another interim period. Best to bite the bullet and start the procurement process for their replacement and hope the HSTs can be nursed along until the introduction of the new fleet. There was a post earlier about a 6-car Stadler Flirt with 2x power modules in the middle, 2 diesel packs and 2 battery packs each, that looked like it was paying homage to the APT. This could actually work, and once the I7C lines get fully wired the power packs can be redeployed elsewhere. This would mean the HST replacement would have to work hand in hand with the 156/158/170 replacement, which is also having to work hand in hand with the 318/320/334 replacement. 745s, 755s and variations of would work well across Scotland.

Depends how long the interim period is. If the money isn't there for such a large quantity of new stock and electrification doesn't progress in time, then there is no choice but to bring in the 222s. It looks unlikely the HSTs will last until electrification and the end of their lease periods, to say nothing of the union objections if they last until 2026, let alone 2030 or 2035.

 

[SC318250]

I know that Class 318/320 replacement at present is being looked at, but could this be deferred for say another 7 years giving them another refurbishment in 4 years etc and bring forward the HST replacement first off all?
There should be enough emus to cover Barrhead/East Kilbride services with what is available at present on current fleet.

 

[Speed43125]

If agreed they'd need refurbishment for intoduction from 2025 onwards. 20 year old to replace almost 50. About the right numbers too. Sounds a good fit until electrification in another 20 or so years?

Electrification will be much sooner than 20 years in the future though. Granted it may well not go to schedule/budget a la EGIP, but by the time the 222s are made available, and training done, we'll be halfway to the 2030 date for planned HST withdrawal.

 

[Railperf]

It sounds reasonable to me, but you could write what I know about rolling stock procurement on the back of a stamp and still have room for the address .

Are the 222s generally considered to be reliable units?

They are very reliable according to Modern Railways (Miles per Technical INcident) MTIN figures. This is the average amount of miles per unit between faults that cause a delay f more than 3 minutes. Currently the 222's run around 60,000 miles between these faults whereas the Scotrail HST fleet is only delivering appx 7,000 miles between these type of faults. GWR - whose engineers and depots have a bit more experience with HST's - are getting around 50% more miles between these faults out of them. Cross Country used to to get close to 12,000 miles per TIN out of them, but have dropped to 6,200 miles - possibly due to a reduction in maintenance facilities and planned withdrawal of the fleet.
Where trains are being phased out of TOC's - and moved across to another TOC, there is a sharp drop-off in reliability. The 222's will suffer that fate. DO Scotrail's HST's suffer due to only having one major depot - Haymarket and a lacl of expertise with the HST's? Then they will suffer a similar fate with 222's. The 222's themselves are mid-life now - probably with corrosion issues of their own and requiring a refurb too. i am sure I read somewhere that they are more expensive to run than HST's. And some parts are likely to become difficult to source at some point. So are they the most economical long-term fit? That's for the bean counters to argue.

 

[najaB]

i am sure I read somewhere that they are more expensive to run than HST's.

They're certainly harder on the track than HSTs. I suspect that they might have extra limits imposed on the Highland Mainline.