2023 English and Northern Irish Local Elections

[Cross City]

John Curtice (who generally knows his stuff) is saying that the vote share shown yesterday, extrapolated over the country, would make Labour the biggest party at the next General Election - but about 20 seats short of a majority. Which doesn't seem much of an endorsement for Starmer's leadership, given how much the Tories are detested by just about everyone at this point, including most of their own supporters.

Labour vote share appears to be about 8-10% ahead of the Tories. The last two times we were 18-24 months out from a change in government, the gap was much much larger - in 1995 the Labour lead was 22%, and in 2008 the Tories were 20% ahead of Labour.

Also worth remembering that the Tories beat Labour by 12% in the 2005 local elections, despite Labour winning the general election held on the same day!

So these elections are indicative of something, but the next general election is still totally up for grabs.

I'm not sure why Sky and the BBC coverage kept banging on about this line about Labour only being able to form a minority government with these results, whilst simultaneously saying that GEs can't be predicted from local elections (well, I think we can all guess at the reasons but that's bordering on conspiracy).

The breakdown they kept showing predicted 70+ independent MPs if these results were translated nationally to a GE, which is frankly absurd. They also failed to mention that London, Wales and Scotland with it's impending SNP collapse were not voting this week.

What happened in this election was outright rejection of the Conservative Party, including in proper traditional Tory heartlands, and painting it as anything else is misguided and verging on foolish. Nearly 1100 losses way beyond even the worst predictions of almost everybody.

 

[deltic]

An excellent result for the Greens and Lib Dems, disaster for the Tories and an okay night for Labour. The question is how many of those Tories who voted Lib Dem will revert to the Tories in a general election.

The Tories were annihilated in the 2019 European elections but easily won the general election a few months later.

 

[yorksrob]

Another question is whether people feel freer to vote with their heart at local elections.

When it comes to general elections I suspect it is more of a grudge match to remove/keep out the unwanted party. Will this lead to more tactical voting

 

[birchesgreen]

I wonder if Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf has been employed to write some of these Tory coping posts.

 

[Cross City]

Another question is whether people feel freer to vote with their heart at local elections.

When it comes to general elections I suspect it is more of a grudge match to remove/keep out the unwanted party. Will this lead to more tactical voting

Tactical voting is much more prevalent at general elections.

Also, low turnouts generally favour the Tories, half as many people vote in the locals as they do in a GE, so this result for them really is beyond terrible. Compounded by their attempted voter suppression of younger people which has had pretty much the opposite affect of what they were hoping.

I look forward to their annihilation in 12 months.

 

[Kite159]

Genuine question. Why are you more worried about Labour?

Your party has just lost over 1,000 council seats.

We're in £2.5tn of debt. Awful living standards. Diabolical public services.

The post-2010 Conservatives don't have a good track record.

When did Anti Labour automatically mean Pro Tory?

The Tories are useless, but at least they have put more money in people's pay packets (minimum wage increases & personal allowance compared to the "good news, we are dropping the income tax to 20% but getting rid of the 10% rate hitting the lowest paid" or poorly written PFI contracts (yes I know introduced under Major, but accelerated in the Blair years to build those new hospitals, schools, MOD buildings etc)

Sir Kier in my eyes can't be trusted to keep his word, he will sooner throw everybody back into lockdown regardless of the cost.

 

[Enthusiast]

The Tories were annihilated in the 2019 European elections but easily won the general election a few months later.

That's probably because the half of the country that wanted out of the EU saw (with some justification) absolutely no point in voting in the European elections but those same people certainly did feel the need to vote in the following election which mattered. The turnout for the EU election was 37% and fewer people voted for an MEP than voted to leave in the referendum three years earlier.

 

[The exile]

Whereas in a formal coalition the larger party has to pander to the extremists, who they rely on for power.

Tell that to the (post 1949) Germans!

 

[jfollows]

Labour predicted to be about 20 seats short of a Parliamentary majority (about 305 of 650 seats).

This is utter nonsense.
It's a prediction based on a relatively small number of people voting in a subset of the nation, extrapolated into some kind of figure meant to represent voting in a general election, and it's irrelevant because that election isn't going to happen for more than a year now. Things that happen between now and then will be much more significant in shaping the outcome of the election. It's one possible outcome, but I guarantee it's not going to be the actual outcome, which is going to be significantly different from this, one way or another.
It's of minor passing interest at best, showing a sort-of-snapshot of where we are today, and as such has some interest. But it's not to be taken seriously. The things that happen, deliberately or otherwise, between now and polling day will shape the outcome of the next election much more significantly.

 

[DarloRich]

Sir Kier in my eyes can't be trusted to keep his word, he will sooner throw everybody back into lockdown regardless of the cost.

What on earth are you talking about? Lockdown?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

What on earth are you talking about? Lockdown?

Yeah I was wondering that. I have zero intention of voting for Labour and can think of lots of reasons why I don't want a Labour Government. But the idea that Labour would gratuitously put us back into lockdown for no good reason is totally farcical.

 

[yorksrob]

Tactical voting is much more prevalent at general elections.

Also, low turnouts generally favour the Tories, half as many people vote in the locals as they do in a GE, so this result for them really is beyond terrible. Compounded by their attempted voter suppression of younger people which has had pretty much the opposite affect of what they were hoping.

I look forward to their annihilation in 12 months.

Fingers crossed !

 

[Typhoon]

This is utter nonsense.
It's a prediction based on a relatively small number of people voting in a subset of the nation, extrapolated into some kind of figure meant to represent voting in a general election, and it's irrelevant because that election isn't going to happen for more than a year now. Things that happen between now and then will be much more significant in shaping the outcome of the election. It's one possible outcome, but I guarantee it's not going to be the actual outcome, which is going to be significantly different from this, one way or another.
It's of minor passing interest at best, showing a sort-of-snapshot of where we are today, and as such has some interest. But it's not to be taken seriously. The things that happen, deliberately or otherwise, between now and polling day will shape the outcome of the next election much more significantly.

If I was a pundit (and wanted to keep my job), I would be very cautious right now. A lot might depend on what happens in Scotland, what affect the financial scandal affects the support for the SNP, for a start; to what extent those who say they will never vote Conservative again enter a blue cross when the time comes. And it is a talking point - there is a follow up question. Would Labour go into coalition or try to exist as a minority government? Who can Labour go into coalition with. With any luck I'd have come up with some coherent answers and be invited back.

You are right - we are a long way from an election*. A lot will depend on how the Conservatives react. Whether Labour can continue to keep the Momentum crew away from the microphones (I heard Long Bailey for the first time for ages recently, seemed quite sensible). And what happens internationally.

* - somewhere, I think it was on this Forum someone claimed that 'the word on the street' was that Sunak was thinking of an election this summer. If, by some chance, he was, he isn't any more. They won't go to the polls until the damage done by Truss i(and Johnson) s well and truly in the past, or at least off of the front pages.

 

[jfollows]

* - somewhere, I think it was on this Forum someone claimed that 'the word on the street' was that Sunak was thinking of an election this summer. If, by some chance, he was, he isn't any more. They won't go to the polls until the damage done by Truss i(and Johnson) s well and truly in the past, or at least off of the front pages.

I agree, I think it'll be as late as possible, barring a sudden "positive" thing which gives the Conservatives hope of improved results in the short term. Given that it's likely to lead to a loss of power, why would they not hang on for as long as possible? No later than 28 January 2025, but if I were able to place a bet without having to jump through too many hoops I'd do so on the basis of a January 2025 election.

 

[yorksrob]

. They won't go to the polls until the damage done by Truss i(and Johnson) s well and truly in the past, or at least off of the front pages.

A lot of people will be renewing mortgages next year. The Truss fiasco will likely still be on their front page.

 

[Snow1964]

I agree, I think it'll be as late as possible, barring a sudden "positive" thing which gives the Conservatives hope of improved results in the short term. Given that it's likely to lead to a loss of power, why would they not hang on for as long as possible? No later than 28 January 2025, but if I were able to place a bet without having to jump through too many hoops I'd do so on the basis of a January 2025 election.

Unlikely to be as late as possible (January 2025)

Likely to be about October 2024, as having a general election in January with electioneering over the Christmas and New Year period is not the best idea. Almost certainly to be before clocks go back and weather tends to get cold.

 

[Herefordian]

When did Anti Labour automatically mean Pro Tory?

The Tories are useless, but at least they have put more money in people's pay packets (minimum wage increases & personal allowance compared to the "good news, we are dropping the income tax to 20% but getting rid of the 10% rate hitting the lowest paid" or poorly written PFI contracts (yes I know introduced under Major, but accelerated in the Blair years to build those new hospitals, schools, MOD buildings etc)

Sir Kier in my eyes can't be trusted to keep his word, he will sooner throw everybody back into lockdown regardless of the cost.

My apologies. I shouldn't have presumed.

They've not put more money in the pockets of public sector workers. Why do you think they've been on strike?

There was money to waste on fraudulent COVID contracts, but not to give the aforementioned a decent pay rise.

Where's the evidence to suggest Starmer would put us back in to lockdown? That's just not going to happen.

 

[DarloRich]

They won't go to the polls until the damage done by Truss i(and Johnson) s well and truly in the past, or at least off of the front pages

You reckon? My mortgage has doubled this year and I had to fix it for 5 years to get an affordable deal. That is going to be playing on a lot of people for a LONG time. People will be reminded every time they look at a bank statement.

You are, of course, right that the election will be as late as possible in the hope SOMETHING/ANYTHING comes up to help the Tories. We are going to see a lot of propaganda from the Tory client media press officers trying everything to discredit Labour. They tried before the election with the bizarre Sue Gray stuff. They tried with that silly letter stuff. It is tiresome.

 

[GusB]

When did Anti Labour automatically mean Pro Tory?

The Tories are useless, but at least they have put more money in people's pay packets (minimum wage increases & personal allowance compared to the "good news, we are dropping the income tax to 20% but getting rid of the 10% rate hitting the lowest paid" or poorly written PFI contracts (yes I know introduced under Major, but accelerated in the Blair years to build those new hospitals, schools, MOD buildings etc)

Sir Kier in my eyes can't be trusted to keep his word, he will sooner throw everybody back into lockdown regardless of the cost.

Remind me which party it was that actually introduced the minimum wage. It wasn't the Conservative Party. Wasn't the personal allowance increase a LibDem policy?

And it's "Keir", not "Kier".

 

[Herefordian]

Remind me which party it was that actually introduced the minimum wage. It wasn't the Conservative Party. Wasn't the personal allowance increase a LibDem policy?

And it's "Keir", not "Kier".

One other thing Conservatives like to claim as "theirs" is same sex marriage.

It was actually their coalition partners and Labour who voted it through.

Many Conservative MPs voted against it.

Yes, Labour should have introduced it when in office. But there we go.

 

[nw1]

I doubt that is an issue in those areas at all.

Indeed. Where I am (not West Midlands), the pattern was, in fact, that the areas with least Labour support (and most Tory support) were the least ethnically-diverse areas.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 May 2023 ==

I agree, I think it'll be as late as possible, barring a sudden "positive" thing which gives the Conservatives hope of improved results in the short term. Given that it's likely to lead to a loss of power, why would they not hang on for as long as possible? No later than 28 January 2025, but if I were able to place a bet without having to jump through too many hoops I'd do so on the basis of a January 2025 election.

I sincerely hope not.

It would mean the Tories are choosing to put their fingers in their ears and pretend that yesterday's results aren't a message that we want a change.

And that would mean electioneering over Christmas and in the depths of winter. A real risk of dangerous wind storms, and in the northern half of the country, disruptive snow. Who wants that? A January election is an absolutely crazy idea, for all sorts of reasons - and I'd be prepared to bet that it won't happen.

I think the October date being bandied around is the absolute latest viable date. And really it needs to happen earlier than that.

 

[Snow1964]

You reckon? My mortgage has doubled this year

Your repayments may have increased, but if your mortgage (your loan secured on property) has somehow doubled then I can only assume you have purchased a second home, or seriously enlarged your house. Both of which suggests you are doing ok financially under current Government.

I am not sure if you are praising or moaning about the Government, or simply don't know the difference between a loan and a loan repayment.

 

[Typhoon]

A lot of people will be renewing mortgages next year. The Truss fiasco will likely still be on their front page.

You reckon? My mortgage has doubled this year and I had to fix it for 5 years to get an affordable deal. That is going to be playing on a lot of people for a LONG time. People will be reminded every time they look at a bank statement.

The only redeeming feature is that inflation will (almost) inevitably fall later in the year (but not because of government action) hopefully resulting in stabilising and then some reduction in Bank of England Interest Rates.

This will be claimed to be some sort of economic miracle (at least in the Daily E, the Daily M and the Daily T), Some people will lap this up as a sign that things are returning to normal. Unfortunately there is a difference between what we think should be on the front pages (and headlining on media channels) and what actually does and some will go a mighty long way to convince us that we should be placing a cross near the oak tree come next election.

Possibly interesting article: https://www.theguardian.com/busines...to-raise-interests-rates-one-more-time-in-may

One other thing Conservatives like to claim as "theirs" is same sex marriage.

It was actually their coalition partners and Labour who voted it through.

Many Conservative MPs voted against it.

Yes, Labour should have introduced it when in office. But there we go.

The groundwork for this was done in the 2004 Civil Partnership Act on which the DUP and Ulster Unionists were against and the Conservatives split.

The problem Labour had was they had to show that the legislation woul not result in the end of society as we know it. Give it, say, five years and we are in 'Banking Crisis' territory. Other things on their mind!

 

[Purple Train]

Task 1 for all those new labour councils - massive pay rises for themselves
Task 2 - buying any shopping centres on life support* for top dollar to try and 'save' them from the evil private sector and other wasteful expenses like £2,000 top end laptops for work.

Task 3 - lose control of the council at the next election, assuming that the results of the brave council/s that toed the tempting tide of going bust in the last cycle are anything to go by.
Oh, and Task 4 - complain that it's the fault of some higher power (invariably Tory).

I doubt that series of events will occur, though - given how badly they did in Slough (where they trialled this four-point plan), I suspect there will be orders from "on high" to protect against a recurrence... on second thoughts, no, it'll appear too left-wing for whatever reason... or will it... or won't it...

If there was any clue as to what Sir Keir really thinks and what his real plans might be, I suspect Labour would be doing a great deal better.

Labour predicted to be about 20 seats short of a Parliamentary majority (about 305 of 650 seats).

It appears to be because Labour haven't been that strong in Midlands, and Lib Dem's have been winning huge areas South West of line from Sussex to Cotswolds. There are areas in West (eg Malvern, Tewkesbury) where Labour have no Councillors.

Are they in areas where the Liberal Democrats put in strong performances in the last General Election? (i.e Conservative seats that would most likely go LibDem if the incumbent lost, or LibDem seats already)

 

[Cross City]

Your repayments may have increased, but if your mortgage (your loan secured on property) has somehow doubled then I can only assume you have purchased a second home, or seriously enlarged your house. Both of which suggests you are doing ok financially under current Government.

I am not sure if you are praising or moaning about the Government, or simply don't know the difference between a loan and a loan repayment.

Splitting hairs to the point of being insulting. It was plainly obvious what they meant.

The government, the leader they actually elected rather than Sunak, singlehandedly put the homes of millions of Britons at risk all for some weird Thatcherite fetishisation experiment.

People are not going to forget that in a hurry.

 

[Thirteen]

I agree that a January election is unlikely and I suspect even December is out of the question. I'd say October or November 2024 at the latest but I wouldn't be surprised if they go for May or June.

 

[DarloRich]

Your repayments may have increased, but if your mortgage (your loan secured on property) has somehow doubled then I can only assume you have purchased a second home, or seriously enlarged your house. Both of which suggests you are doing ok financially under current Government.

I am not sure if you are praising or moaning about the Government, or simply don't know the difference between a loan and a loan repayment.

it is a fairly common to refer to your mortgage repayments as your "mortgage". I am sure you know that. However, I should have remembered that this board thrives on pointless pedantry and been perfect in my wording.

will go a mighty long way to convince us that we should be placing a cross near the oak tree come next election.

not whilst I have urine in my body! I am sure it will win over some of the poor people who think the modern "Tories" are on their side

Splitting hairs to the point of being insulting. It was plainly obvious what they meant.

The government, the leader they actually elected rather than Sunak, singlehandedly put the homes of millions of Britons at risk all for some weird Thatcherite fetishisation experiment.

People are not going to forget that in a hurry.

thanks - I am glad it was clear what I meant!

 

[nw1]

Task 3 - lose control of the council at the next election, assuming that the results of the brave council/s that toed the tempting tide of going bust in the last cycle are anything to go by.
Oh, and Task 4 - complain that it's the fault of some higher power (invariably Tory).

Which it probably will be. I can see the Tory government cutting funding to the councils, precisely to make them run out of funds and not deliver what they promise, turning people against the councils and increasing the chances of the Tories regaining them.

I hope though that people can see through such dirty tricks.

If there was any clue as to what Sir Keir really thinks and what his real plans might be, I suspect Labour would be doing a great deal better.

I think it's fairly clear. Move the UK back towards the centre. Don't do anything radical, but restore the relatively middle-of-the-road politics which dominated the country from Major to Brown inclusive.

 

[158756]

I think it's fairly clear. Move the UK back towards the centre. Don't do anything radical, but restore the relatively middle-of-the-road politics which dominated the country from Major to Brown inclusive.

In some respects people would welcome a return to business as usual after the chaos of the Johnson/Truss era, but Starmer absolutely needs to promise something different on the economy, housing, public services etc, because the status quo is not working. If Labour's pitch is just that they are not the Tories they may well win, but in five years they will be wondering why no one is enthusiastic to vote them back in after presiding over exactly the same problems the country has now with minimal improvement.

 

[Cross City]

In some respects people would welcome a return to business as usual after the chaos of the Johnson/Truss era, but Starmer absolutely needs to promise something different on the economy, housing, public services etc, because the status quo is not working. If Labour's pitch is just that they are not the Tories they may well win, but in five years they will be wondering why no one is enthusiastic to vote them back in after presiding over exactly the same problems the country has now with minimal improvement.

Trouble they've got is that any half decent policy they put out there is immediately stolen.

Keeping quiet is exactly the right thing to do IMO until an election is called an manifestos are written.