Indeed, letting them further curtail services only then to still fail really sounds like madness. In fact in some ways the current chaos has one small advantage in that TPE can't simply brush the problem under the carpet the way Avanti did.
I wonder how feasible it might be to bring them in under the current Northern public company, then offer some Northern staff the chance to train on the unit types and sign some limited routes, giving them a chance to bid for overtime on TPE to help cover?
Before the big guns come out and shout me down, its just a thought. I seen it used in other industries from time to time, an maybe it might offer a bit of relief for TOC and staff alike?
<Runs away>
My feeling is that TPE are currently sweeping the problem under the carpet. Forcing TPE to publish a realistic timetable makes it more obvious that there is a problem BIG practical PLUS is it gives passengers and staff a better idea of what will run.
Why though? If the two TOCs end up operating under the same publicly owned company, and that cross brand cover was only offered when cover could not be found within, surely this would be a possible solution? After all, outside of any current industrial action, keeping both sides of the operation going successfully and giving willing staff to earn a bit more ans gain knowledge & experience would be productive for all?
This might work to a certain extent but the core of the current problem is lack of drivers. Your right though - any sort of cooperation between Northern and TPE might bring some benefit to passengers at least.
Anyway, how would people feel if Avanti absorbed the entirety of TPE into them? There's already been talk of giving them the North WCML services, so why not go all the way.
There are two reasons I think this might work. One is they are both owned by First, so are already operating under the same roof, it would just streamline operations. Two is that Avanti management has already had to clean up a similar mess, so have the knowledge to do it again (makes the process easier instead of doing it from scratch).
Another more minor thing would be the idea of Avanti then also ordering more 805s to get rid of 185s and 68s, to improve fleet commonality for maintenance and driver training. Since TPE already have 802s, it shouldn't be too hard to get 805s cleared for most TPE routes, which makes it overall easier.
But I want to hear the forums thoughts on whether the whole idea has merit or not, or if my idea is a huge mistake for some reason, or some merit/potential if you so choose.
You raise an important point - the Avanti approach to getting out of the driver shortage problem is obviously better than TPE's current head in the sand approach.
In terms of stock your right. The West coast side of TPE uses 397s (under the wires all the way) mainly so the only obvious need/excuse to get more IETs for that side is to be common with 805s. But there must be benefits to simplifying the fleet - benefit for maintenance resource and driver resource. I would say the 68+Mk5s are the microfleet that would go which would mean more 802s (or spare 185s ?) for services across the Pennines.
All well and good, but place yourself in that same scenario with a family group who have already spent some hours travelling by air to Manchester Airport then then face the current hiatus. As the head of the family group, how would you react to being told "You will be accommodated on the next available service" when then not being told when such a service will actually depart.
An emergency time table is the only way to manage that.
Which is why an emergency timetable would be far more suitable as it gives people certainty.
Indeed. And if travelling to a flight, wouldn't you rather know what time train would run than miss it?
Seriously, there's no possible valid argument for having a timetable you can't operate.
It loudly demonstrates an inability to understand the situation a business is in. A failing formula that would normally lead to a failure of the business.
Persisting with training on these units has been eating up resources that could have been better employed running the other units in service. 3 car 185s instead of 6 would be better than no train.
I first saw a Class 68 on South Pennine in November 2021. Well over a year later they're still timed to haul ECS back and forwards once a day - but very often don't! That's removing the path for a regular service from the public timetable. They aren't very noticeable in public service, although it has happened.
I only see a future for the 68s+Mk5s once more drivers are recruited and TPE steadily improves back to a 2019 timetable.
There’s some noble aims here but it’d take months to do things like train sufficient Northern staff on TPE routes (and if increased staffing is the aim, why not just recruit more new entrants rather than deprive Northern of staff whilst their existing drivers/ guards are taught TPE routes?)
Same goes for getting existing TPE staff trained for longer distances again, that’ll take months before it pays any dividends… we don’t have that luxury
Capitulating over industrial relations seems unlikely, given how generous the “Old” terms were (which seems to be the Union’s benchmark)
Divvying up the operation to other TOCs or getting OLR involved may have merits but doesn’t affect the number of qualified staff available to work at the coal face
So the only option (to make improvements that can be delivered in the short term) seems to be some sort of emergency timetable
If the minimum staffing levels you can guarantee are just 40% of the numbers needed to deliver the 2019 timetable then cut your cloth accordingly, but ensure that the 40% of chosen services run day in, day out… guarantee that baseline… maybe that’s only half hourly through Huddersfield plus a bi-hourly stopper… Maybe that’s only bi-hourly through Sheffield… maybe Newcastle/ Middlesbrough/ Scarborough/ Hull go down to bihourly, maybe there’s a conversation to be had locally about whether a train every two hours to Manchester is preferable to an hourly shuttle with single 185 to York (or Leeds in the case of Hull), i dunno… maybe that’s nothing beyond Middlesbrough …But make sure that passengers can have faith in this new timetable
Then plan for growth. Show passengers your plans for bouncing back. Maybe the plan is that with every tranche of newly trained staff, you’ll sprinkle some resources on each branch, but give your regular customers something to look forward to, whilst ensuring that nothing gets cancelled
Because I don’t know what other options there are for keeping passengers, it might be fun for some enthusiasts to have random timetables but if we are seeing three services in a row cancelled then there’s only so many times that you can test the faith of some passengers
Yes - more drivers need to be recruited and trained.
Forget luxury - it will take many months (a year or more) but its that or continue with heads in the sand. A temporary timetable would also theoretically make training more predictable so easier to achieve.
Yes- TPE need to cut their cloth according to what they have. Then - as you say grow steadily.
The black cloud is how many services post Covid19 do the TPE passenger levels justify. At least a predictable time table would prevent unnecessary further loss of passengers - has the stable door already been open too long on that one ?.
In terms of bounce back from Covid19 demand loss there is a parallel. Airports were poorly staffed once demand started to recover. Big difference is the airport staff were in roles that required a lot less training than a driver role.
Questions :-
Are DfT and TPE sitting on their hands waiting for as long as they can to see how much demand recovers to pre Covid19 levels ?.
Are we backseat managers in danger of demanding a long hard look too soon - that might lead to some unpleasant conclusions ?.