Cross Country HST withdrawals?

[Trainbike46]

I think it's fairly easy to spend 5 minutes looking at Germany and seeing what rolling stock XC should actually have, to be honest (the whole of DB's non-high-speed IC/ICE network is basically identical to XC as it's not a capital-centric country). But if you want a UK approximation even the bog standard DfT-designed 80x would be fine.

what german stock are you referring to?

one of the ICE generations (if so, presumably ICE4?) or the new ECx? or the "classic" IC stock? or something else entirely? I'm not that familiar with german rolling stock, I only really know that the ICE3 sets used by ICE international (services to Netherlands and Belgium) are a lot less reliable than desirable

 

[Scott1]

XC hasn't been right since Virgin made a mess of it - it's been over 20 years and there's still been no desire to fix it, which is throwing away custom (though mostly to the car). And there are lots of obvious, relatively cheap options to fix it, too. It's really quite frustrating.

That's the crux of it all. The HST withdrawal is a drop in the ocean. What it needs, and has never received, is investment in a considerably bigger fleet. Four car trains are always going to be too small on the voyager routes. Aside from a couple of 170 carries the fleet hasn't had any improment for years.

 

[Trainbike46]

Germany's IC services are horrifically inefficient. They're all loco hauled which is going to be very expensive to run.

Just needs the Voyagers scrapping and taking on the Meridians and a fresh order of 80x bi modes for NE-SW

why scrap the voyagers and keep meridians, rather than the other way around?

And if you're getting new trains anyway, why not just replace them all?

 

[cactustwirly]

why scrap the voyagers and keep meridians, rather than the other way around?

And if you're getting new trains anyway, why not just replace them all?

The Voyagers are flawed units with a tiny seating capacity.
The Meridians are much improved with a bigger capacity if you rearrange 1st class

 

[daodao]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you omitted Easyjets Manchester - Newquay service?

I overlooked it as it is a summer only seasonal service, not currently operating.

 

[Meerkat]

Apparently BR was much better than today’s railway so just put the prices up to match demand to capacity, like they would have done.

 

[John R]

Is there really any crossover in people taking planes vs XC - isn’t it going to be almost entirely time-based, something XC is unlikely to ever compete on?

It's cost based too. Take as an example Bristol to Newcastle on 20th April (so hardly last minute).

Easyjet is quoting 22.99 depart 0655 arrive 0800.

XC is quoting 159.10 depart 0634 arrive 1129 (leave an hour later and it's 199.20).

So even adding the cost of the bus to the airport, or being dropped off, or whatever, XC is far slower and far more expensive. You could even justify adding the fast track cost to minimise time at the airport and still be saving over £100.

Also note that for that journey, travel via London is currently being offered at 103, so the long way round is considerably cheaper than XC. Which is exactly what I'll be doing a few days later when travelling on that route. Around £80 all in, including 1st class on LNER. If that hadn't been available I'd have flown.

 

[Meerkat]

It's cost based too. Take as an example Bristol to Newcastle on 20th April (so hardly last minute).

Easyjet is quoting 22.99 depart 0655 arrive 0800.

XC is quoting 159.10 depart 0634 arrive 1129 (leave an hour later and it's 199.20).

So even adding the cost of the bus to the airport, or being dropped off, or whatever, XC is far slower and far more expensive. You could even justify adding the fast track cost to minimise time at the airport and still be saving over £100.

Also note that for that journey, travel via London is currently being offered at 103, so the long way round is considerably cheaper than XC. Which is exactly what I'll be doing a few days later when travelling on that route. Around £80 all in, including 1st class on LNER. If that hadn't been available I'd have flown.

That's a crazy low price for the flight, does it include all the taxes etc?
I reckon unless I had lots of luggage I would look at Bristol-London-Newcastle first before checking XC. Wouldn't be surprised if it was faster.

 

[Trainbike46]

That's a crazy low price for the flight, does it include all the taxes etc?
I reckon unless I had lots of luggage I would look at Bristol-London-Newcastle first before checking XC. Wouldn't be surprised if it was faster.

wouldn't both options show up if you typed it into a ticket engine / toc website / tickets.railforums.co.uk?

 

[John R]

That's a crazy low price for the flight, does it include all the taxes etc?
I reckon unless I had lots of luggage I would look at Bristol-London-Newcastle first before checking XC. Wouldn't be surprised if it was faster.

Yes it is, although you have to factor in getting to/from the airport at each end (though arguably, many people will incur some cost/time getting to Temple Meads too.)

Via London is around the same as XC in terms of journey time, hence one of the reasons why I chose it. Will be a much more pleasant journey too.

 

[class 9]

The Easyjet fare quoted, isn't now available, although later flights are.

 

[TheBigD]

Pre covid , the hourly XC routes approx required...

Newcastle to Reading - 11 diagrams
(2 hourly Southampton +1 unit)
Edinburgh to Plymouth - 19 diagrams
(2 hourly Glasgow +1 unit)
(0703 BHM EDB & 1308 return strengthening + 1 unit)
Manchester to Bournemouth - 11 units
...which inter worked with the...
Manchester to Bristol - 7 units
(Paignton/Exeter extensions +1 unit)
(AM ex Penzance service/PM Bristol to Newcastle strengthening + 1 unit)
Standby/Hot Spare at Birmingham - 1 unit.

So a minimum of 54 diagrams required from both the Voyagers and HST fleet.
An extra Voyagers was added to the fleet in 2018) and HST usage wasn't all 4 stes most days, and a couple more were strengthened on a Friday.


From the suggestions made in this thread...

Cutting the Newcastle to Reading back to York to Reading would save you 2 units, or 3 if you could get all of them in the much faster xx28 path north of Birmingham.

If the Newcastle Reading isnt returning to hourly more units are released.

Cutting the Glasgow and Southampton extensions would save you 2 more units.

Another 2/3 units from not strengthening and no 0950 ex Penzance.

I'll leave other to work out how many units are required for what is actually running from May. 58 Voyagers available (20 x 5 car and 38 x 4 car) so probably 52 available for daily use.

 

[John R]

wouldn't both options show up if you typed it into a ticket engine / toc website / tickets.railforums.co.uk?

The Easyjet fare quoted, isn't now available, although later flights are.

1. Yes they do.
2. Sorry, it was the 19th I was looking at. The 20th is all of £4 more at the moment.

 

[O L Leigh]

Please send all your wonderful suggestions to the DfT for consideration and costing, as none of these things are within the purview of the franchisee.

 

[lammergeier]

Which is why hourly services between Plymouth and the North East and Scotland and also between Bournemouth and Manchester are being restored in May 2023. Also being restored are some of the Reading to North East services and the lunchtime arrival and departure in Torbay.

There was a resumption of some Bristol to Manchester workings in the last timetable change.

This doesn’t look like a franchise taking on deep cuts.


A fleet of 5 trains which covers 4 services a day is very inefficient and the removal of this fleet is very similar to what BR would have done in a recession which affected passenger numbers.

It should be noted the inference that the 2 hourly extensions of north east services from Reading to Southampton isn’t returning so will cascade some stock to replace the little used HSTs.

The 5 HST's are currently going through C6 with the original plan being for them to cover 8 services per day from May. Obviously this is no longer happening, but the fact they only cover four services is a choice not a necessity.

There was also project Hydra which would have seen significantly more Reading-Newcastle services return (I understand some would terminate at York) but this has been significantly pared back. So yes, it is a franchise suffering cuts.

 

[jagardner1984]

what I’ve not heard much talk of on here is the possibility of strengthening the unit size of the same trains ?

Obviously some technical challenges of tilt/non-tilt and refurbishment level (or not), but surely modifications to make existing XC services 5 car/10 car using existing standard class vehicles from soon to be retired 22x fleet would give the politicians their “000s of extra seats” press release without actually having to expend real cash on pesky things such as drivers, guards or indeed anything new

 

[HamworthyGoods]

The 5 HST's are currently going through C6 with the original plan being for them to cover 8 services per day from May. Obviously this is no longer happening, but the fact they only cover four services is a choice not a necessity.

There was also project Hydra which would have seen significantly more Reading-Newcastle services return (I understand some would terminate at York) but this has been significantly pared back. So yes, it is a franchise suffering cuts.

I meant cut to existing services which other TOCs are experiencing, not cuts to proposed additional services.

Cross Country and GWR are two GB TOCs in a minority who see a service increase in May 23.

 

[class397tpe]

Apparently BR was much better than today’s railway so just put the prices up to match demand to capacity, like they would have done.

They have, they barely offer advance singles anymore - there's not much else they can do.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

It's all very sad and not because of HSTs being retired (as diesel trains they are pretty much antiques now) but because what's happening now at XC demonstrates that a return to DfT/Treasury control is going to see a return to the negative thinking of the 60s/70s. A mindset that sees cost reductions as being far more important than actual revenue or passenger satisfaction. It can't help XC's cause that unlike just about all other operators it has comparatively little season ticket revenue or business travellers willing to pay 1st class fares.

I fear that unless there is a real change of thinking in a few years XC will simply be disbanded as a separate operator and services will be more like those provided in the steam era ie a small number of cross-Birmingham trains each day but other journeys being provided by the other operators who share routes currently with XC and many more passengers having to change at Birmingham New Street. And of course even a pared down HS2 will make many journeys from NW England quicker via Old Oak Common.

 

[cactustwirly]

It's all very sad and not because of HSTs being retired (as diesel trains they are pretty much antiques now) but because what's happening now at XC demonstrates that a return to DfT/Treasury control is going to see a return to the negative thinking of the 60s/70s. A mindset that sees cost reductions as being far more important than actual revenue or passenger satisfaction. It can't help XC's cause that unlike just about all other operators it has comparatively little season ticket revenue or business travellers willing to pay 1st class fares.

I fear that unless there is a real change of thinking in a few years XC will simply be disbanded as a separate operator and services will be more like those provided in the steam era ie a small number of cross-Birmingham trains each day but other journeys being provided by the other operators who share routes currently with XC and many more passengers having to change at Birmingham New Street. And of course even a pared down HS2 will make many journeys from NW England quicker via Old Oak Common.

It has great potential, but I feel a lot of demand is being suppressed by the poor traveling experience.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's all very sad and not because of HSTs being retired (as diesel trains they are pretty much antiques now) but because what's happening now at XC demonstrates that a return to DfT/Treasury control is going to see a return to the negative thinking of the 60s/70s. A mindset that sees cost reductions as being far more important than actual revenue or passenger satisfaction. It can't help XC's cause that unlike just about all other operators it has comparatively little season ticket revenue or business travellers willing to pay 1st class fares.

Not only that, but their first class fares are outrageous and they throw money away by refusing to take Weekend First for Advance ticket holders.

The TOC is just a mess.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2023 ==

It has great potential, but I feel a lot of demand is being suppressed by the poor traveling experience.

I totally agree. Bar their punctuality issues, DB IC/ICE shows how XC should look. To encourage long journeys you want high comfort and quality catering plus a good value premium class - aim to kill off those domestic flights entirely.

 

[Meerkat]

I totally agree. Bar their punctuality issues, DB IC/ICE shows how XC should look. To encourage long journeys you want high comfort and quality catering plus a good value premium class - aim to kill off those domestic flights entirely.

Are passengers willing to pay for that though - can XC ever compete with two or three of you in a car?
If all the relevant domestic air passengers switched to XC how many coaches worth would it actually be?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Are passengers willing to pay for that though - can XC ever compete with two or three of you in a car?

There are two advantages over a car, depending who you are.

For business travellers, they can work the journey provided a suitable standard of accommodation is provided and reliable wifi etc.
For families, kids hate long car journeys and love trains (plus the Family Railcard is really quite good value).

TBH, if XC isn't improved, I'd suggest closing it, and replacing it with EMU and DMU services by the local TOC on those few sections of route where nothing parallels it. At the moment it doesn't do anything particularly well. For local passengers they'd be better off with an 8-car EMU (e.g. Manchester to Brum) or 6-car Turbo (Reading to South Coast), for long distance passengers it does nothing better than National Express does, being fairly slow and cramped.

Make it good or don't bother.

And for the record I don't class 40 year old HSTs as good, I've never really liked the Mk3 coach. You could make it good with all the 221s and 222s in long formations with low density seating, though, or even better get some 80x in and stop Birmingham New St stinking like a giant exhaust pipe.

If all the relevant domestic air passengers switched to XC how many coaches worth would it actually be?

I don't know how many flights there are, but it does look like a few Voyagers' worth if you add them all up.

 

[Annetts key]

The IC125 trains are now 40+ years old and well past their sell-by date; they are ready for the scrapyard.

1. If we scrap everything that is 40+ years old in this country, there won’t be much left. The land mass is a lot older than 40 years, as is the country, parliament (including most of the members), most roads are 40 years old or more (including most motorways). Even on the railways, lots and lots of equipment and infrastructure is 40+ years old.
2. The age of the stock is not the important issue, the important issues are, is the stock (in the case of a IC125 HST, both the locomotives and the carriages) in a good enough condition to be safe and reasonably reliable? And are ‘spare parts’ to enable them to be repaired and maintained still available?

There is, as it happens, various types of younger rolling stock either currently on the network or previously on the network that is either in worse condition, or where some replacement parts are currently unavailable.

Further, some of the younger stock is worse to travel on from the perspective of the passenger, and at the end of the day, it’s the people who pay money to travel on trains (yes, I know that money from general taxation is used as well) who the service is supposed to be provided for.

Removing stock without replacing it, while reducing the level of the service (however it’s done) is simply cuts.

It is preferable to concentrate on enhancing and developing services to/from London, which as the capital city generates the most demand for rail services, as distinct from secondary cross-country routes.

Funny, very funny. Has anyone been on a CrossCountry train that is less than one quarter full for most of it’s journey (not including during the pandemic) ?
Because I’ve been on a number of different services to or from London (and not on the same route either) where they have been no more than one quarter full.

I don’t know about currently, but last year, leisure travel by rail was apparently higher than before the pandemic. Meanwhile the number commuting into London was apparently still below the level before the pandemic. And it’s clear a large number of passengers carried by CrossCountry are leisure travellers.

All sounds a bit like “managed decline”, doesn’t it ?

I would use the phrase “mis-managed decline”. It’s clear that the only thing that is important to the government at the moment in respect to the existing railway network, is saving money in the short term. In other words, cuts. They know they are unlikely to win the next election at the moment, so want to reduce expenditure as much as possible. Maybe so they may have some money “to give away” in tax cuts immediately before a general election.

They don’t care about climate change, environmental concerns, cutting carbon emissions, attracting more passengers or more freight, efficient use of resources, investing in the long term service, improving the service, passenger comfort, passenger satisfaction or any related issues/subjects.

They only care about trying to cling on to power for as long as possible.

 

[Meerkat]

There are two advantages over a car, depending who you are.

For business travellers, they can work the journey provided a suitable standard of accommodation is provided and reliable wifi etc.
For families, kids hate long car journeys and love trains (plus the Family Railcard is really quite good value).

But are they willing to pay what that better service would cost.
for the businessman the downside is lack of door to door, and lack of flexibility.
I‘m not a parent but from observation I would suggest its more stressful on the train for long distance trips as you are in public and have less flexibility (and much less stuff).

 

[Bletchleyite]

But are they willing to pay what that better service would cost.

My personal view is that like TPE between the early 2000s and 2019 there is significant suppressed demand due to undercapacity.

for the businessman the downside is lack of door to door, and lack of flexibility.

Flights aren't door to door. Business travel doesn't require flexibility most of the time, it's going to one place for a predictable amount of time, and air travel doesn't offer flexibility either.

I'm not talking about sales reps, they won't even consider rail and never did.

I‘m not a parent but from observation I would suggest its more stressful on the train for long distance trips as you are in public and have less flexibility (and much less stuff).

Driving from Newcastle to Cornwall, say, would be grim. Driving from MK is bad enough and it's less than half the distance.

 

[Ayman Ilham]

I would use the phrase “mis-managed decline”. It’s clear that the only thing that is important to the government at the moment in respect to the existing railway network, is saving money in the short term. In other words, cuts. They know they are unlikely to win the next election at the moment, so want to reduce expenditure as much as possible. Maybe so they may have some money “to give away” in tax cuts immediately before a general election.

They don’t care about climate change, environmental concerns, cutting carbon emissions, attracting more passengers or more freight, efficient use of resources, investing in the long term service, improving the service, passenger comfort, passenger satisfaction or any related issues/subjects.

They only care about trying to cling on to power for as long as possible.

In which case, why can't we just hasten the election and get it over and done with? It's clear NO solutions will ever happen until then!

 

[spotify95]

What would help Cross-country to remove the HSTs would be to try and get Avanti's 221s (when Avanti get replacement rolling stock) or to get EMRs 222s (since we're getting 810s sometime soon). Hopefully that would also reduce capacity issues as well.
Though from what I've seen on this thread, its another "we can't care about our customers" despite increasing prices !

 

[Towers]

In which case, why can't we just hasten the election and get it over and done with? It's clear NO solutions will ever happen until then!

I fear there will be rather fewer solutions than some are expecting even after any election!

 

[Meerkat]

My personal view is that like TPE between the early 2000s and 2019 there is significant suppressed demand due to undercapacity.

But will that suppressed demand bring more revenue than the cost of accommodating it? Otherwise it needs a very strong economic gainto get the Treasury to pay any attention.

Flights aren't door to door. Business travel doesn't require flexibility most of the time, it's going to one place for a predictable amount of time,

I thought we were comparing with a car, which does have much greater flexibility and near door to door.

Driving from Newcastle to Cornwall, say, would be grim.

Kids on a train for that long would be pretty grim -better hope the charging points and toilets are working! How many families go on holiday by train anyway - they have become accustomed to travelling with a car full of stuff.