UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Ken H]

But you are taxed when you take it out (although 25% can normally be taken tax free)

Depends on your income on retirement. You still have a personal allowance when you retire.

 

[greyman42]

What you pay into a pension scheme isn't subject to tax

You said ALL their income. Did you mean just the amount they pay into their pension?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You said ALL their income. Did you mean just the amount they pay into their pension?

I said what you pay into your pension isn't subject to tax. So your employer takes off the pension contribution first before working out your tax liability in that pay packet.

 

[greyman42]

I said what you pay into your pension isn't subject to tax. So your employer takes off the pension contribution first before working out your tax liability in that pay packet.

Ok. I misunderstood post 668.

 

[Snow1964]

The effect of Elizabeth line was mentioned earlier
TfL have produced a graph of passengers per week for 21st August - 10th December and 2 most recent weeks appear to be about 3.9m journeys a week (see section 6.2 of link)

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/s19339/elc-20230124-pt1-elizabeth-line-operations-and-programme-completion-update.pdf

 

[Snow1964]

DfT have updated the passenger numbers spreadsheet
Taking rail figures (column G) compared to pre covid

98% on 15th Jan
97% on 16th and 17th
90-95% on 18th-31st Jan

then dipped a bit in early February (blame RMT)

Clearly if some lines (eg London outer suburban commuter) are down by 20-35% (as reported in other threads), then even allowing for Elizabeth line, some lines must be well over 100% to give averages in mid 90s %

So big question is how many operators have increased capacity over amount of 3 years ago, or for those that like to be negative, are any operators still below 95% of pre covid capacity. Or perhaps more sensibly are some Operators now stifling rail usage by not providing sufficient capacity?

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

 

[43066]

Or perhaps more sensibly are some Operators now stifling rail usage by not providing sufficient capacity?

Almost certainly, eg the reduced southeastern timetable which has been widely criticised as making the network less useable. And of course far worse is happening further north!

 

[Killingworth]

DfT have updated the passenger numbers spreadsheet
Taking rail figures (column G) compared to pre covid

98% on 15th Jan
97% on 16th and 17th
90-95% on 18th-31st Jan

then dipped a bit in early February (blame RMT)

Clearly if some lines (eg London outer suburban commuter) are down by 20-35% (as reported in other threads), then even allowing for Elizabeth line, some lines must be well over 100% to give averages in mid 90s %

So big question is how many operators have increased capacity over amount of 3 years ago, or for those that like to be negative, are any operators still below 95% of pre covid capacity. Or perhaps more sensibly are some Operators now stifling rail usage by not providing sufficient capacity?

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

It's a very variable picture across the country, within regions, between parts of routes and by operators.

I use as an example my local line, TPE's South Pennine between Sheffield and Manchester. TPE figures must be massively down, possibly no more than 50%, if that. Their operational woes are well recorded in several threads and that has impacted on the other two operators. From local observation East Midlands are probably up by over 10%. Northern are certainly up and I'd estimate that could be over 30%. They have said revenue is at 125% of pre-Covid.

It may be very difficult (impossible?) to calculate recovery for individual lines like this. Given regular trains every day running on time for the full route and at full length the recovery on all would be a lot better. That's just for one route. There'll be lots of special factors across the nation.

 

[YorkshireBear]

DfT have updated the passenger numbers spreadsheet
Taking rail figures (column G) compared to pre covid

98% on 15th Jan
97% on 16th and 17th
90-95% on 18th-31st Jan

then dipped a bit in early February (blame RMT)

Clearly if some lines (eg London outer suburban commuter) are down by 20-35% (as reported in other threads), then even allowing for Elizabeth line, some lines must be well over 100% to give averages in mid 90s %

So big question is how many operators have increased capacity over amount of 3 years ago, or for those that like to be negative, are any operators still below 95% of pre covid capacity. Or perhaps more sensibly are some Operators now stifling rail usage by not providing sufficient capacity?

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

And yet we are being told passengers won't come back at work constantly! Positive news there really glad to see it

 

[Ken H]

DfT have updated the passenger numbers spreadsheet
Taking rail figures (column G) compared to pre covid

98% on 15th Jan
97% on 16th and 17th
90-95% on 18th-31st Jan

then dipped a bit in early February (blame RMT)

Clearly if some lines (eg London outer suburban commuter) are down by 20-35% (as reported in other threads), then even allowing for Elizabeth line, some lines must be well over 100% to give averages in mid 90s %

So big question is how many operators have increased capacity over amount of 3 years ago, or for those that like to be negative, are any operators still below 95% of pre covid capacity. Or perhaps more sensibly are some Operators now stifling rail usage by not providing sufficient capacity?

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

And numbers for passenger miles. Maybe passengers are not travelling as far now.
or maybe they are able to buy cheaper tickets because of more flexible time at work with hybrid working.
So while numbers are recovering, revenue isnt.

 

[yorksrob]

The figures make it more and more difficult for the Government to justify its damaging agenda of cuts.

 

[dk1]

The figures make it more and more difficult for the Government to justify its damaging agenda of cuts.

And a pay rise for the staff who’ve not had one in 4 years. No doubt they’ll trawl out the old high value anytime & season ticket fare line & the £16bn they pumped in during the pandemic spin again.

 

[yorksrob]

No doubt they’ll trawl out the old high value anytime & season ticket fare line & the £16bn they pumped in during the pandemic spin again.

Yes, pretty much guaranteed.

 

[Killingworth]

And a pay rise for the staff who’ve not had one in 4 years. No doubt they’ll trawl out the old high value anytime & season ticket fare line & the £16bn they pumped in during the pandemic spin again.

Using the examples in my post 698 above, TPE must be losing a massive amount of revenue due to much reduced passenger numbers. However, a significant number of those being lost are indeed season ticket holders, quite a few being first class. Northern are picking up a lot of them but their ticket prices may be less than half those of TPE and East Midlands.

The result is passenger number recovery doesn't mean revenue is recovering at the same rate.

I've noted more split ticketing in recent months. That has a double effect by boosting the apparent number of journeys while reducing total ticket sales revenue. Statistics can usually be found to support any viewpoint!

 

[Dr Day]

Passenger miles is probably the better metric in the absence of revenue data as that will ignore impacts of split tickets, although factors for season tickets may well skew things a bit. Key for government is still revenue v costs, so overall journeys isn't going to be that much of a driver for certain tough decisions being made.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Travelled into London earlier from East Surrey and was pleasantly surprised to see how full the three big station car parks i passed were given its half term week thought there would be lower usage. Came back on a TLK from Blackfriars just before 4 and it arrived already well loaded and then got nice and cosy from London Bridge and wasn't dominated by family's. So good to see people will still travel in good numbers despite the recent disruption. Of course doesn't necessarily equate to improved revenue but DfT need to see bigger picture of all the value add that passengers be they office workers or leisure travellers bring from the journeys they make.

 

[Bald Rick]

So big question is how many operators have increased capacity over amount of 3 years ago, or for those that like to be negative, are any operators still below 95% of pre covid capacity. Or perhaps more sensibly are some Operators now stifling rail usage by not providing sufficient capacity?

By far the biggest increase in passenger numbers compared to three years ago is the Elizabeth line. That line, alone, is responsible for around 15% of all national rail passengers.

To answer the question, most operators are below 95% of their 2019 capacity (In terms of vehicle miles). IIRC the only ones that aren’t are Merseyrail, TfW, London Overground, Elizabeth Line, LNER and EMR. (And the open access operators).

Almost certainly, eg the reduced southeastern timetable which has been widely criticised as making the network less useable.

and yet since the new timetable came into being (and once the strikes were over) Southeastern are now experiencing their highest passenger numbers since Covid.

 

[Class 170101]

By far the biggest increase in passenger numbers compared to three years ago is the Elizabeth line.

But are we saying these are new passengers (ie new to rail) or are they appearing on National Rail stats but disappearing from Tube numbers?

 

[Bald Rick]

But are we saying these are new passengers (ie new to rail) or are they appearing on National Rail stats but disappearing from Tube numbers?

bit of both.

 

[Class 170101]

bit of both.

So, probably overall, we should discount those (ex) tube passengers because they aren't new public transport users and shouldn't affect total public transport funding (if its based on number of users) but perhaps some re-distribution of funding from tube to rail.

 

[Krokodil]

then dipped a bit in early February (blame RMT)

Er - why blame RMT? Most of those on strike were ASLEF members.

But are we saying these are new passengers (ie new to rail) or are they appearing on National Rail stats but disappearing from Tube numbers?

While there will be some abstraction from the (hitherto badly overcrowded) Central Line, anecdotal evidence on another thread indicates that said line is still busy in its own right. Overall numbers for London Underground don't appear to have suffered since the opening.

 

[Bald Rick]

So, probably overall, we should discount those (ex) tube passengers because they aren't new public transport users and shouldn't affect total public transport funding (if its based on number of users) but perhaps some re-distribution of funding from tube to rail.

Depends how that transport is funded, of course.

 

[Xavi]

First peak-time business trip from Devon to London on GWR for 6 months or so on Tuesday. All services I used (including local connections in Devon) were busier than pre-covid. My train and others were full and standing Reading to London. As reported elsewhere, the Elizabeth Line was very well used too - standing through Central London in both directions.

There is no more scope for cutbacks, not that DfT will listen.

Yes, this type of usage is more condensed into Tuesday- Thursday and there are consequently lower season ticket sales. However, there’s been strong evidence for sometime that leisure usage (especially Thursday evening through Sunday evening) is thriving like never before. All in all pretty good I reckon.

Despite the ‘lost revenue’ buoyant rail usage should be welcomed by government since it’s a key to a thriving economy and higher tax revenues, yet they remain focussed on the relatively insignificant subsidy line. That’s poor management of UK plc (our economy).

 

[Snow1964]

First peak-time business trip from Devon to London on GWR for 6 months or so on Tuesday. All services I used (including local connections in Devon) were busier than pre-covid. My train and others were full and standing Reading to London.

I have found GWR services to be busy in recent months too, and at times have seen people standing because all the 3+2 seats are full.

My usage has been in the Bath and Bristol area, rather than London area.

Did write to my MP about the overcrowding, but apart from an acknowledgment saying would write to rail minister. Never did get a reply.

 

[dk1]

Hare Fares & half term don’t mix. 08:03 Norwich-Liverpool St is full & standing from Ipswich. Trolley now static as cannot get through.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2023 ==

Same now reported on the following 08:30. And the 09:03 too!!

 

[Xavi]

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-02-16/cut-price-train-tickets-offered-to-lure-commuters-back-on-mondays-and-fridays

This is good news. Aligns with commuting patterns. Is DfT loosening the shackles on TOCs to grow revenue?

 

[lammergeier]

First peak-time business trip from Devon to London on GWR for 6 months or so on Tuesday. All services I used (including local connections in Devon) were busier than pre-covid. My train and others were full and standing Reading to London. As reported elsewhere, the Elizabeth Line was very well used too - standing through Central London in both directions.

There is no more scope for cutbacks, not that DfT will listen.

Yes, this type of usage is more condensed into Tuesday- Thursday and there are consequently lower season ticket sales. However, there’s been strong evidence for sometime that leisure usage (especially Thursday evening through Sunday evening) is thriving like never before. All in all pretty good I reckon.

Despite the ‘lost revenue’ buoyant rail usage should be welcomed by government since it’s a key to a thriving economy and higher tax revenues, yet they remain focussed on the relatively insignificant subsidy line. That’s poor management of UK plc (our economy).

No doubt someone who hasn't been near a train in months will be along shortly with an out of date spreadsheet to explain that you're wrong and why cuts are actually essential

 

[Parjon]

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-02-16/cut-price-train-tickets-offered-to-lure-commuters-back-on-mondays-and-fridays

This is good news. Aligns with commuting patterns. Is DfT loosening the shackles on TOCs to grow revenue?

Up to 15% isn't much of a saving, especially when it comes with restrictions

 

[43066]

and yet since the new timetable came into being (and once the strikes were over) Southeastern are now experiencing their highest passenger numbers since Covid.

That’s good, but likely happening in spite of the timetable, rather than because of it!

 

[paul1609]

First peak-time business trip from Devon to London on GWR for 6 months or so on Tuesday. All services I used (including local connections in Devon) were busier than pre-covid. My train and others were full and standing Reading to London. As reported elsewhere, the Elizabeth Line was very well used too - standing through Central London in both directions.

There is no more scope for cutbacks, not that DfT will listen.

Yes, this type of usage is more condensed into Tuesday- Thursday and there are consequently lower season ticket sales. However, there’s been strong evidence for sometime that leisure usage (especially Thursday evening through Sunday evening) is thriving like never before. All in all pretty good I reckon.

Despite the ‘lost revenue’ buoyant rail usage should be welcomed by government since it’s a key to a thriving economy and higher tax revenues, yet they remain focussed on the relatively insignificant subsidy line. That’s poor management of UK plc (our economy).

I used GWR down to Plymouth from Paddington on Saturday morning returning on Saturday evening. It was a 9 car train all the way through to Penzance in both directions. On the way down passenger numbers were so low wed have comfortably fitted in a 153 except maybe between Exeter and Newton Abbot, on the return I don't think the train would have exceeded 25% and only reached that between Reading and Paddington. Pewsey actually had a surprising amount of passengers for me. I think personal snapshots are too subjective, certainly on my personal experience I'd be moving 166s to Paddington to Penzance services and using the IETs on Portsmouth to Cardiff.