Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

[GS250]

While this is heading into thread crossover with the "could we close the railways" thread, I think a reasonable conclusion of that thread (which I think is no longer active, or at least is a bit quiet) was that you probably could get away with closing branch lines and the InterCity railway and replacing with road coaches and flights, but that major cities like London, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and the likes can barely function with a bus-only transport solution unless you start doing stuff like BRTs which are incredibly close to being (and not a lot cheaper than) urban railways.

Indeed, that's what you see in places like the USA, Canada, Australia etc - well developed urban and suburban networks but hardly anything in between.

I mentioned above that some who buy a car will choose to railhead/P&R rather than do something insufferably grim/expensive and drive into central London, to be fair, which does take income from the InterCity railway, but given that it's overcrowded most of the time that's probably not a terrible thing. But then again, it's 8 hours to drive from Edinburgh to London legally if you're lucky and the train takes 4, which are you going to choose? (Much less of a thing if you live in Birmingham, though - 2 hours vs. about 90 minutes, say).

Serpell report revisited again I wonder?

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Define “stupid money”.

LNER services are well used and (pre strikes) Avanti were overcrowded to the point they were no longer selling cheap advances. Some people are clearly willing and able to pay what’s being asked.

Haven’t seen the cheap advances on Avanti for a very, very long time now. Early Avanti and Virgin Trains used to have them available quite often.

 

[ar10642]

Define “stupid money”.

LNER services are well used and (pre strikes) Avanti were overcrowded to the point they were no longer selling cheap advances. Some people are clearly willing and able to pay what’s being asked.

I just tried Haywards Heath to Edinburgh, 09:00 1st March, coming back 17:00 on 3rd. Cheapest price with limited availability 2 adults 2 kids is £369.30, some prices up to £552. That's if there are no strikes on that day which of course you can't know. Fuel there and back would be around £170.

I doubt I'd bother at all, the driving would be horrible but you can't rely on the train to actually run in the current climate, not worth the hassle.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the train is actually running and they don't want stupid money for it, which on both points the general perception is the railway isn't doing very well on that. There is also the matter of whether someone actually *needs* to do that journey or is it for leisure? If it's too difficult to do they might just not bother with it at all.

I certainly think people will choose not to make a journey into London vs driving it in most cases. That hit hospitality hard, though I suppose that's centred around alcohol which is very much incompatible with driving to start with.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

Define “stupid money”.

LNER services are well used and (pre strikes) Avanti were overcrowded to the point they were no longer selling cheap advances. Some people are clearly willing and able to pay what’s being asked.

I don't personally think that walk up off peak fares on the WCML (which for historical reasons* sit about 10% below other routes for similar distances) are swingeing, and for a family with a Family Railcard they're not too bad too, it's only a group of adults where they're excessive. While I know the reasons this is impractical and won't happen I'd be quite happy if they abolished everything else and just had the Off Peaks as the standard fare, and I don't think the trains would be empty as a result.

WCML long distance Anytimes on the other hand take the mick. I'd drive to a P&R or stay the night before rather than pay one. I certainly think if people bought a car it'd reduce the chance of them being willing to pay those specific fares.

FWIW I have driven MK to the Highlands (vaguely equivalent to London-Edinburgh I guess) and would do it again but only with an overnight stop somewhere around Carlisle.

* Because Virgin abolished the SuperSaver then set the Saver down to the average of the two, and then that became the regulated fare.

 

[43066]

Haven’t seen the cheap advances on Avanti for a very, very long time now. Early Avanti and Virgin Trains used to have them available quite often.

Indeed. I’m not saying I think it’s good that they’re not available, but it makes sense to fill up trains with people who are willing to pay more, first and foremost.

I just tried Haywards Heath to Edinburgh, 09:00 1st March, coming back 17:00 on 3rd. Cheapest price with limited availability 2 adults 2 kids is £369.30, some prices up to £552. That's if there are no strikes on that day which of course you can't know. Fuel there and back would be around £170.

For the distance that doesn’t seem that unreasonable for four people travelling at peak times. You could no doubt find for considerably cheaper if you booked off peak/split fares and/or used railcards.

I doubt I'd bother at all, the driving would be horrible but you can't rely on the train to actually run in the current climate, not worth the hassle.

Indeed. If the train isn’t available most would likely either fly or simply not go. 8 hours + on the A1 with two kids in the car, no thanks.

 

[ar10642]

For the distance that doesn’t seem that unreasonable for four people travelling at peak times.

I mean that's up to you but there's no way I'm dropping half a grand to go *anywhere* within the UK for just the journey alone. I'd want a flight to somewhere nicer for that.

 

[43066]

I mean that's up to you but there's no way I'm dropping half a grand to go *anywhere* within the UK for just the journey alone. I'd want a flight to somewhere nicer for that.

I would agree with you. But the fact is some people clearly are prepared to pay these amounts to do these journeys. And as noted it could likely be made cheaper.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would agree with you. But the fact is some people clearly are prepared to pay these amounts to do these journeys. And as noted it could likely be made cheaper.

The correct answer for Haywards Heath to Edinburgh is to drive or train to Gatwick and fly. Nobody should really drive that distance without an overnight break (even if swapping drivers - being in a car is in itself fatiguing), so you've got a Premier Inn/Travelodge room to add to that on top, OK you might get one for £35 given the fairly wide area you can consider, though.

I think for journeys up to about 200 miles the car is a viable competitor, above that it's really air. Not to say people don't drive those journeys (hello Mr Cummings formerly of Downing St) but they really shouldn't be doing.

 

[Master29]

Seems to be a common theme now, more so with the current climate. Car V train. I would normally use trains every time but yesterday I had a long trip to Basingstoke by road and it was pretty horrendous. Car may win for convenience every time but roads are horrendous and going to be bad at the moment for the obvious reason stated here. Road travel is a hassle at the best of times but lately. I think we all know the reasons but that is for another thread that should be titled "elephant in the room".

 

[ar10642]

The correct answer for Haywards Heath to Edinburgh is to drive or train to Gatwick and fly. Nobody should really drive that distance without an overnight break (even if swapping drivers - being in a car is in itself fatiguing), so you've got a Premier Inn/Travelodge room to add to that on top, OK you might get one for £35 given the fairly wide area you can consider, though.

I think for journeys up to about 200 miles the car is a viable competitor, above that it's really air. Not to say people don't drive those journeys (hello Mr Cummings formerly of Downing St) but they really shouldn't be doing.

I thought flying was bad and killing the planet and nobody should be doing it, especially for internal flights? I won't be going to Scotland again in any case unless I have to. I've driven further than that loads of times though and it's been absolutely fine, 200 miles is only four hours at motorway average speeds?

 

[yorksrob]

I would agree with you. But the fact is some people clearly are prepared to pay these amounts to do these journeys. And as noted it could likely be made cheaper.

This worked well (in terms of revenue) in the days of the long distance commuter and the business account traveller, but why are we persisting with it now ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

This worked well (in terms of revenue) in the days of the long distance commuter and the business account traveller, but why are we persisting with it now ?

Even pre COVID businesses were turning away from it, mine certainly wouldn't allow a £350 Manchester-London Anytime, I'd be being asked why I hadn't booked a hotel or gone by car.

It's really inexcusable for any rail fare to cost more than the HMRC rate (45p/mile, which includes an element for maintenance and depreciation so is considered the approximate full cost of going by car) for driving plus C-charge and a day's parking, which for Manchester to London would come out at around £200-220 total return. Not £350.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

I thought flying was bad and killing the planet and nobody should be doing it, especially for internal flights?

It's not ideal, but it's better than killing people by driving tired.

 

[12LDA28C]

Haven’t seen the cheap advances on Avanti for a very, very long time now. Early Avanti and Virgin Trains used to have them available quite often.

As I posted earlier, Birmingham to Glasgow in a fortnight is available for £36 single. I would define that as pretty 'cheap', wouldn't you?

If your journey is for leisure, not business and is not time-specific then cheap fares most certainly are still available.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I thought flying was bad and killing the planet and nobody should be doing it, especially for internal flights? I won't be going to Scotland again in any case unless I have to. I've driven further than that loads of times though and it's been absolutely fine, 200 miles is only four hours at motorway average speeds?

200 maybe a bit low, but 250 is nearer the max at a push (MK to Keswick is 258 which is on the edge of what I'd do in one go). Unlikely to be 4 hours with a stop, which you really should take (the M6 Toll services are handily in the middle of London to Manchester).

Haywards Heath to Edinburgh is 458 miles and according to Google Maps 8hr 18mins, before adding in stops (of which there should be at least about three, with one a long stop for a meal or similar rather than just a quick leg stretch). So you're probably getting close to 9 and a half hours. That's too much to be safe - that journey should definitely not be driven without an overnight stay or shared driving, and with such a long day I even think shared driving is pushing it given that travelling in a car is tiring in itself.

And absolutely nobody should drive through the night unless they're properly adjusted to a night shift.

 

[Master29]

It's not ideal, but it's better than killing people by driving tired.

Indeed and maybe if successive governments had actually tried to solve these issues we wouldn't need to be having these discussions.

 

[Starmill]

I don't think I've ever heard someone say that in real life.

What it does mean is that the price of a car journey is basically fuel, which means you're more reluctant to pay e.g. the appalling Manchester-London anytime fares, but I think that is often a bit moot, nobody with any sense willingly drives into central London unless it's unavoidable.

It's really not moot though. Good luck getting a sensible price on travel to and from a single night in York if you live in, let's say, Sutton Coldfield. The prices are so high because there's such low capacity there's basically no scope for offering advance tickets at a sensible discount. Off Peak prices are ludicrous, in seven weeks time it will be £78.60. This kind of journey is the one people are actually making which should by default be going by rail, but rail just cannot cater to because of the current state.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's really not moot though. Good luck getting a sensible price on travel to and from a single night in York if you live in, let's say, Sutton Coldfield. The prices are so high because there's such low capacity there's basically no scope for offering advance tickets at a sensible discount. Off Peak prices are ludicrous. This kind of journey is the one people are actually making which should by default be going by rail, but rail just cannot cater to because of the current state.

I'd agree that XC is a massive problem, but it's been a massive problem since Branson's entirely predictable stupid errors of the early 2000s, it's not a new thing. Amazes me just how long it takes the railway to solve obvious problems.

 

[43066]

This worked well (in terms of revenue) in the days of the long distance commuter and the business account traveller, but why are we persisting with it now ?

Probably because the industry is currently being micromanaged by the government, and hasn’t been allowed the flexibility to depart from the existing ticketing pricing structures? Eg why isn’t there a properly flexible season ticket for commuting two or three days per week?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Probably because the industry is currently being micromanaged by the government, and hasn’t been allowed the flexibility to depart from the existing ticketing pricing structures? Eg why isn’t there a properly flexible season ticket for commuting two or three days per week?

There doesn't need to be one. Just price the Anytimes reasonably and stop considering them a penalty to whack expense account people with / a cash cow.

It's great that Scotland is going to try this out by having all week Saturday fares. I look forward to the results, though I forget when it is they're doing it.

 

[yorksrob]

Even pre COVID businesses were turning away from it, mine certainly wouldn't allow a £350 Manchester-London Anytime, I'd be being asked why I hadn't booked a hotel or gone by car.

It's really inexcusable for any rail fare to cost more than the HMRC rate (45p/mile, which includes an element for maintenance and depreciation so is considered the approximate full cost of going by car) for driving plus C-charge and a day's parking, which for Manchester to London would come out at around £200-220 total return. Not £350.

That sounds like a reasonable benchmark for undiscounted standard fares.

Perhaps that system could be used as a fares cap, with operators allowed to go below for discounted offers (groupsave, railcards, AP etc) or above for premium offers (1st class, pullman etc).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

Probably because the industry is currently being micromanaged by the government, and hasn’t been allowed the flexibility to depart from the existing ticketing pricing structures? Eg why isn’t there a properly flexible season ticket for commuting two or three days per week?

Well, indeed.

 

[Dai Corner]

200 maybe a bit low, but 250 is nearer the max at a push (MK to Keswick is 258 which is on the edge of what I'd do in one go). Unlikely to be 4 hours with a stop, which you really should take (the M6 Toll services are handily in the middle of London to Manchester).

Haywards Heath to Edinburgh is 458 miles and according to Google Maps 8hr 18mins, before adding in stops (of which there should be at least about three, with one a long stop for a meal or similar rather than just a quick leg stretch). So you're probably getting close to 9 and a half hours. That's too much to be safe - that journey should definitely not be driven without an overnight stay or shared driving, and with such a long day I even think shared driving is pushing it given that travelling in a car is tiring in itself.

And absolutely nobody should drive through the night unless they're properly adjusted to a night shift.

A lorry driver is permitted to drive 9 hours a day with 45 minutes break.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That sounds like a reasonable benchmark for undiscounted standard fares.

Perhaps that system could be used as a fares cap, with operators allowed to go below for discounted offers (groupsave, railcards, AP etc) or above for premium offers (1st class, pullman etc).

It is very interesting that an Off Peak Return from Kings X to Headingley (used that to avoid the distortions from the single fare pricing trial) is £203.70, which is pretty much bang-on that formula (the mileage would be £176.40, add on the parking and C-charge and you're near enough there). Super Off Peak as a pure leisure fare is cheaper. The WCML is different - the Off Peak there is the equivalent of the Super Off Peak on the ECML - this happened because of GNER's "Business Saver" which Virgin preferred to do using Advances.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

A lorry driver is permitted to drive 9 hours a day with 45 minutes break.

A lorry driver is:

1. A professional who is experienced in what they are doing and knows when things are going wrong
2. Driving at 56mph mostly in a straight line in lane 1 of the motorway, a far less brain-intensive activity than driving a car at 70 or more - try driving at 56 on the motorway and see just how easy and relaxing it is
3. Unlike a car driver, there are also controls on other work activities during their day which can cause the allowed amount of driving to reduce

And just because you legally can doesn't mean you should.

 

[ar10642]

A lorry driver is permitted to drive 9 hours a day with 45 minutes break.

Yeah I'd say this 250 miles limit is very much into opinion territory. I probably wouldn't want to go 458 miles in one day to be honest, but 250 is not an upper limit. I'd prefer there to be a reliable and competitive train service to get me there instead but it seems we don't want that as a nation, unreliable and expensive is how we do it.

In reality I have pretty much given up on travel outside the south east since Covid, too expensive, too annoying and locals don't want tourists when you get there.

 

[Thirteen]

Driving or even getting the coach to somewhere like Scotland from the south and vice versa is a last resort option.

 

[Starmill]

A lorry driver is:

1. A professional who is experienced in what they are doing and knows when things are going wrong
2. Driving at 56mph mostly in a straight line in lane 1 of the motorway, a far less brain-intensive activity than driving a car at 70 or more - try driving at 56 on the motorway and see just how easy and relaxing it is
3. Unlike a car driver, there are also controls on other work activities during their day which can cause the allowed amount of driving to reduce

And just because you legally can doesn't mean you should.

A lorry driver who has an accident driven by fatigue, or even worse an outright breach of the hours regulation, is likely to cost their company megabucks via their substantial insurance costs. Even cheap road hauliers won't tolerate funny business which might cause accidents. A six axle HGV will do much, much more damage than any car in a collision.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A lorry driver who has an accident driven by fatigue, or even worse an outright breach of the hours regulation, is likely to cost their company megabucks via their substantial insurance costs. Even cheap road hauliers won't tolerate funny business which might cause accidents. A six axle HGV will do much, much more damage than any car in a collision.

Certainly true, but it can't be forgotten that a car isn't an island and can easily cause a collision involving multiple larger vehicles.

 

[Thirteen]

Mayor of the West Midlands Andy Street mentioned that rail is the dominant method of commuting into Birmingham city centre when being interviewed on Newsnight.

There was a clip from Newsnight and despite the strikes, people still want the railways to get back to somewhat normal, people don't realise the benefit to the economy that public transport has.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I am a car owner who has spent periods without a car - this is when one car dies and I don't rush to replace it for many months. One car was stolen and I went without for many years (bought a house instead !). I mainly use public transport within London - a car is not strictly necessary within London unless you have something large to shift or a lot of shopping. Covid made a private car more attractive as does the demise of our town centre shopping. Outside London my use has changed from mainly rail with some driving to mainly coach with some driving but more driving than before. I usually end up regretting the phases where I do not have a car. Gone are the trips by rail with enthusiast friends and are replaced by road. This started decades ago but the strikes mean we never consider rail now. Now, in our case, rail will get a look in once it is reliable but actually car is more convenient - we always used to try and use rail but it has been noticed how much more flexible the car is.

But all those people who have only just bought a car for the sole reason of continuing life without strike ridden rail are very likely going to keep their car for many years. So for many years rail will be competing against cars more than rail had been before. Covid also makes car seem safer. Some people will never consider rail again. Some will use rail for some journeys but not all. Some will revert to railway once their car has expired. Some (many ?) will buy another car as they have formed a habit. The thing about car ownership is that it is not something you pick up and put down on a day-to-day or even year-to-year basis. Owning a car is an investment, the owner will then continue to use that car as many of the costs are already incurred regardless of use (purchase, maintenance, road-tax and insurance). In fact I have learnt that lack of use of ones car is likely to cause unreliability. Worse still if someone has gone to the trouble of learning to drive they are even more committed to private transport than they ever were before.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

There was a clip from Newsnight and despite the strikes, people still want the railways to get back to somewhat normal, people don't realise the benefit to the economy that public transport has.

But with more working from home the benefit to the economy of the whole country is less.

---

It does seem a double whammy that following on from the railways losing a significant chunk of their revenue due to Covid any recovery is stalled by industrial action. Not sure there would ever be 100% recovery as working from home is far better in many ways (but with a few downsides). But as an ex commuter I know I do not want to rely on the railways. I got out of that by avoiding commuting so far.

 

[142blue]

When I'm working as a driving instructor I might hand out business cards at the station

 

[Peter Sarf]

When I'm working as a driving instructor I might hand out business cards at the station

Trouble is, you wont get much passing trade at the moment .