Despite the government's announcement, should HS2 be cancelled?

[Bletchleyite]

For all their faults, the one thing the 80x aren't is lacking in is legroom, as the seating layout is very spacious.

Yes, totally agreed. They're a much less space-wasting design than Pendolinos and Voyagers, and pleasantly that space is used to provide better comfort rather than cram people in (Lumo aside, which is a very special type of operation). On the other hand part of it is thin backed seats - the legroom in Pendolinos with the new seats is almost as good.

 

[mike57]

Looks like the vultures are circling https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63651082

I dont know how much notice will be taken of one voice, but a few MPs from within the Tory party seem to be of a similar opinion.

My own prediction, HS2 will be scaled back to the absolute minimum tomorrow.

I think this may end up being more about keeping the Tory party sort of united rather than what is best for the UK.

 

[Energy]

Yes, totally agreed. They're a much less space-wasting design than Pendolinos and Voyagers, and pleasantly that space is used to provide better comfort rather than cram people in (Lumo aside, which is a very special type of operation). On the other hand part of it is thin backed seats - the legroom in Pendolinos with the new seats is almost as good.

The original pendolino and voyager seats are quite thick, I found the pendolino refurb seats comfortable while having great legroom so hopefully they will be on the HS2 trains since we are expecting a higher density layout.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I reckon Phase 1 will be completed (it'd probably cost more to make good if they stopped now) but then that's it for now.

 

[Horizon22]

Some Tories threatening to vote against tax rises unless HS2 is "axed". Obviously nonsense considering how much is already spent.

Tory MP Esther McVey says she won't back tax rises unless HS2 is axed

Esther McVey warns she will oppose the chancellor's economic plans ahead of the Autumn Statement.

www.bbc.co.uk

Former cabinet minister Esther McVey has fired a warning shot at the government over plans to increase taxes in Thursday's Autumn Statement.
The Tory MP told Deputy PM Dominic Raab putting taxes up was the "last thing" a Tory government should be doing.
And she said she would not support such a move while money was being spent on "unnecessary vanity project" HS2.
Mr Raab defended the government's plans as he stood in for Rishi Sunak at Prime Minister's Questions.
He told Ms McVey he understood her opposition to the HS2 high speed rail link, but urged her to wait for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's statement on Thursday.

 

[MattRat]

Some Tories threatening to vote against tax rises unless HS2 is "axed". Obviously nonsense considering how much is already spent.

Tory MP Esther McVey says she won't back tax rises unless HS2 is axed

Esther McVey warns she will oppose the chancellor's economic plans ahead of the Autumn Statement.

www.bbc.co.uk

It'll likely be cut down further though. Phase 1 is too far ahead, and Phase 2a just got passed, but Phase 2b is free real estate to try and appease those against HS2.

 

[Energy]

Some Tories threatening to vote against tax rises unless HS2 is "axed". Obviously nonsense considering how much is already spent.

Tory MP Esther McVey says she won't back tax rises unless HS2 is axed

Esther McVey warns she will oppose the chancellor's economic plans ahead of the Autumn Statement.

www.bbc.co.uk

Its just politics. HS2 has suddenly become a bigger topic, those who have always been opposed unsuprisingly still are and will say what is popular in their area.

 

[Falcon1200]

I reckon Phase 1 will be completed (it'd probably cost more to make good if they stopped now) but then that's it for now.

Given that Phase 1 will not be completed during the life of this Parliament, or the next (few), another administration could presumably just reinstate the full plan.

(I wonder what Ms McVey suggests should be done with the HS2 work carried out so far, if she genuinely means cancel the entire project, immediately?)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Esther McVey is MP for Tatton (she succeeded George Osborne) and is a troublesome Nimby, like Cheryl Gillan was for Phase 1 in the Chilterns.
HS2 (Crewe-Manchester Phase 2b) will impact her constituency and its well-heeled residents (who will be future users of Manchester Airport station).
She's the sort of MP who will demand the money is spent instead on NPR, not comprehending that you need HS2 to reach Manchester to enable NPR.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Given that Phase 1 will not be completed during the life of this Parliament, or the next (few), another administration could presumably just reinstate the full plan.

It's said that a lot of the proposed cuts (and potentially some of the tax rises) are likely to be pie in the sky, because they'll be planned for more than 2 years ahead and thus in the next Parliament, which may undo them.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Esther McVey is MP for Tatton (she succeeded George Osborne) and is a troublesome Nimby, like Cheryl Gillan was for Phase 1 in the Chilterns.
HS2 (Crewe-Manchester Phase 2b) will impact her constituency and its well-heeled residents (who will be future users of Manchester Airport station).
She's the sort of MP who will demand the money is spent instead on NPR, not comprehending that you need HS2 to reach Manchester to enable NPR.

This, without HS2b there is no NPR as it is shared infrastructure for both. Without HS2b or NPR then the Tories have basically given up on any semblance of 'Levelling Up".

 

[Mikey C]

Esther McVey is MP for Tatton (she succeeded George Osborne) and is a troublesome Nimby, like Cheryl Gillan was for Phase 1 in the Chilterns.
HS2 (Crewe-Manchester Phase 2b) will impact her constituency and its well-heeled residents (who will be future users of Manchester Airport station).
She's the sort of MP who will demand the money is spent instead on NPR, not comprehending that you need HS2 to reach Manchester to enable NPR.

It's a curio that Osborne was one of the key supporters of HS2, whereas his constituency successor is so against it.

 

[HSTEd]

Given that Phase 1 will not be completed during the life of this Parliament, or the next (few), another administration could presumably just reinstate the full plan.

(I wonder what Ms McVey suggests should be done with the HS2 work carried out so far, if she genuinely means cancel the entire project, immediately?)

It will be impossible to reasonably reinstate the plan if it is abandoned at any time. The staff will be gone, understanding of the project will have be lost and land disposals will likely have commenced.

It would end up being easier and cheaper to start from scratch than try to resuscitate a scheme that will have been dead for years at that point.

EDIT:

My main annoyance right now is that the approach to Curzon Street is only two tracks, if it had been four we could have leveraged the proposed Manchester Piccadilly NPR solution to get some transformational benefits from Phase 1 by diverting more trains into Curzon Street without maxing out the approach capacity. That is assuming Phase 1 is as much as we can get.

 

[Chester1]

This, without HS2b there is no NPR as it is shared infrastructure for both. Without HS2b or NPR then the Tories have basically given up on any semblance of 'Levelling Up".

It might make sense to rebrand Crewe to Manchester as part of NPR. It would be an easier political sell because of the HS2 brand being tainted.

I am struggling to find estimated completion dates.

Best I can find is:

Old Oak Common to Birmingham and Lichfield - 2029
Euston to Old Oak Common - 2033
Lichfield to Crewe - 2035
Birmingham International to East Midlands Parkway - 2040

Is this media pessimism or the current government plan? Its staggering if after cancelling Golborne spur and most of the eastern branch, it will still be 7 years late. Surely it should be possible to get Lichfield to Crewe and Birmingham International to East Midlands Parkway open in next 11 years?

 

[philosopher]

Looks like the vultures are circling https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63651082

I dont know how much notice will be taken of one voice, but a few MPs from within the Tory party seem to be of a similar opinion.

My own prediction, HS2 will be scaled back to the absolute minimum tomorrow.

I think this may end up being more about keeping the Tory party sort of united rather than what is best for the UK.

I just hope they at least safeguard the route of phase 2a and 2b to make it easier to restart work on it the future.

 

[PTR 444]

I just hope they at least safeguard the route of phase 2a and 2b to make it easier to restart work on it the future.

Agreed, even if these phases eventually become known as HS3 and HS4 respectively

As much as I would like to see HS2 built in full, I think it is reasonable to delay construction of the later phases until the current treasury black hole has been filled. The only snag I have with this is that Curzon Street will be built and spend a significant time of operation with only three trains per hour. With hindsight, I think Curzon Street should have been left out of phase 1 and instead a chord built in the Bordesley area to allow London - Brum trains to run to New Street. This would have saved a significant amount of money now, and at least construction of CZ could have waited until phase 2b when it would be far more useful.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I am struggling to find estimated completion dates.
Best I can find is:

Old Oak Common to Birmingham and Lichfield - 2029
Euston to Old Oak Common - 2033
Lichfield to Crewe - 2035
Birmingham International to East Midlands Parkway - 2040

Is this media pessimism or the current government plan? Its staggering if after cancelling Golborne spur and most of the eastern branch, it will still be 7 years late. Surely it should be possible to get Lichfield to Crewe and Birmingham International to East Midlands Parkway open in next 11 years?

Lichfield-Crewe was originally expected to open at the same time as Phase 1, or soon after.
That's based on being a much simpler route with no really major structures, plus experience with Phase 1 (land purchase, suppliers, contractors/contracts etc).
The rail contracts I think are being framed as a combined Phase 1/2a, with a call-off for 2a.
Phase 2a also has had full go-ahead since Feb 2021 (Phase 1 was Feb 2017).
With Phase 2a approval, there was some possibility of cancelling the Phase 1 WCML connection at Handsacre, and running directly to Crewe, but it didn't happen (or not yet, anyway!).
Anything else depends on politics and how the bills fare in parliament, so the East Mids extension is indeterminate.

 

[Roast Veg]

It will be impossible to reasonably reinstate the plan if it is abandoned at any time. The staff will be gone, understanding of the project will have be lost and land disposals will likely have commenced.

Agreed on staff and understanding, but as far as I know there haven't been any disposals for 2b East yet and that has been officially cancelled for ages.

 

[The Planner]

Agreed, even if these phases eventually become known as HS3 and HS4 respectively

As much as I would like to see HS2 built in full, I think it is reasonable to delay construction of the later phases until the current treasury black hole has been filled. The only snag I have with this is that Curzon Street will be built and spend a significant time of operation with only three trains per hour. With hindsight, I think Curzon Street should have been left out of phase 1 and instead a chord built in the Bordesley area to allow London - Brum trains to run to New Street. This would have saved a significant amount of money now, and at least construction of CZ could have waited until phase 2b when it would be far more useful.

That means you cannot release any capacity on the Cov corridor.

 

[HSTEd]

As much as I would like to see HS2 built in full, I think it is reasonable to delay construction of the later phases until the current treasury black hole has been filled.

There is always a treasury black hole. That's just how the "modern" UK economy works.

If we cut spending on the essential infrastructure our soceity needs to function in the future, we have to question whether we are still in the serious statehood business or are merely a retirement home for baby boomers.

The only snag I have with this is that Curzon Street will be built and spend a significant time of operation with only three trains per hour.

If Curzon Street has capacity spare I'm sure uses will be found for it, given the mess Birmingham New Street pathing is these days.
If all we get is Phase 1 or 1+2A, EUston is going to end up with buckets of spare capacity that will likely end up being used in creative ways to recover something from this debacle.

 

[PTR 444]

That means you cannot release any capacity on the Cov corridor.

The other option would be to repurpose Curzon Street so Coventry corridor (and possibly also Leicester and Nottingham) trains can terminate there in addition to HS2

 

[jfowkes]

As much as I would like to see HS2 built in full, I think it is reasonable to delay construction of the later phases until the current treasury black hole has been filled.

Infrastructure spending is an excellent way to fill treasury black holes. Spend money to help the economy now and get a shiny piece of infrastructure to help the economy when you're done.

The last 12 years of failed austerity policies have surely proved that we can't save our way out of an economic crisis.

 

[camflyer]

It might make sense to rebrand Crewe to Manchester as part of NPR. It would be an easier political sell because of the HS2 brand being tainted.

The branding of HS2 has been bad from the start. Labels such as "Phase 2a" make it all sound like an afterthought and not part of an integrated plan. Surely some pointy headed PR types could have come up with some better names.

NPR isn't a great name either but at least it doesn't have the negativity of HS2.

Rebrand everything north of Birmingham as being part of NPR isn't the worst idea.

 

[JonathanH]

There is always a treasury black hole. That's just how the "modern" UK economy works.

If we cut spending on the essential infrastructure our soceity needs to function in the future, we have to question whether we are still in the serious statehood business or are merely a retirement home for baby boomers.

Presumably once the baby boomers have been paid their pensions there will be a lot less demand for UK government debt? I appreciate that something needs to pay that debt off but it doesn't have to be rail travellers.

 

[Trainbike46]

Surely we should be comparing the trains to Class 373, since those trains are classic compatible, which is the type of sets we'll be ordering.

Class 373 has 2 carriages without any seats, which won't be true of the new HS2 classic compatible stock.

Also, someone found in an official source that the 400m trains will have 1100 seats, so even more than the 374s, probably achieved by having fewer first class seats and more standard class ones, as well as smaller buffets probably

 

[Bletchleyite]

Also, someone found in an official source that the 400m trains will have 1100 seats, so even more than the 374s, probably achieved by having fewer first class seats and more standard class ones, as well as smaller buffets probably

From my working above I reckon the end vehicle as 1st only. I got to 1060 using the same layout as the 374, but an extra 2.5 seats per Standard coach would be easy to fit in without it being particularly tight.

 

[Chester1]

Lichfield-Crewe was originally expected to open at the same time as Phase 1, or soon after.
That's based on being a much simpler route with no really major structures, plus experience with Phase 1 (land purchase, suppliers, contractors/contracts etc).
The rail contracts I think are being framed as a combined Phase 1/2a, with a call-off for 2a.
Phase 2a also has had full go-ahead since Feb 2021 (Phase 1 was Feb 2017).
With Phase 2a approval, there was some possibility of cancelling the Phase 1 WCML connection at Handsacre, and running directly to Crewe, but it didn't happen (or not yet, anyway!).
Anything else depends on politics and how the bills fare in parliament, so the East Mids extension is indeterminate.

Thanks, the dates in a couple of news articles did seem a bit pessimistic.

If Curzon Street has capacity spare I'm sure uses will be found for it, given the mess Birmingham New Street pathing is these days.
If all we get is Phase 1 or 1+2A, EUston is going to end up with buckets of spare capacity that will likely end up being used in creative ways to recover something from this debacle.

As soon as Curzon Street opens it could be used for Manchester to Birmingham services, cutting back Cross Country network. HS from Lichfield to Birmingham should compensate for no tilting on WCML. There might not be sufficient demand for paths into New Street to make such a measure necessary. It would reduce connectivity in exchange for additional capacity at New Street.

The branding of HS2 has been bad from the start. Labels such as "Phase 2a" make it all sound like an afterthought and not part of an integrated plan. Surely some pointy headed PR types could have come up with some better names.

NPR isn't a great name either but at least it doesn't have the negativity of HS2.

Rebrand everything north of Birmingham as being part of NPR isn't the worst idea.

Branding anything south of Crewe as NPR would be bad PR! The North - Midlands border in west of England is commonly recognised as the Cheshire - Staffordshire border.

 

[The Planner]

The other option would be to repurpose Curzon Street so Coventry corridor (and possibly also Leicester and Nottingham) trains can terminate there in addition to HS2

That would need massive infrastructure changes that defeat the savings you are trying to make.

 

[Starmill]

I haven't looked at the tender documents with regards to anything to do with catering so please do correct me if they're wedded to a particular approach, however there's a possibility to deliver decent quality catering with only two trolley docks. Lumo uses this method. Cold meal boxes and instant noodle or soup cups can be loaded onto the train straight into the docks and then served as the trolley goes along. Obviously that's still a fairly 'cheap' option and you'd probably want the ability to serve some actual hot meals.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I haven't looked at the tender documents with regards to anything to do with catering so please do correct me if they're wedded to a particular approach, however there's a possibility to deliver decent quality catering with only two trolley docks. Lumo uses this method. Cold meal boxes and instant noodle or soup cups can be loaded onto the train straight into the docks and then served as the trolley goes along. Obviously that's still a fairly 'cheap' option and you'd probably want the ability to serve some actual hot meals.

This (and other things) still suggests to me that a dedicated Scotland subfleet would make sense. All other journeys will be around an hour which arguably doesn't need any catering.