UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Master29]

It’s more nuanced than that.

Leisure travel has recovered well, indeed better than Pre Covid. Commuting and business travel is still well short.

In pre covid Augusts and early Septembers, there was always a higher proportion of leisure travellers than average, and a lower proportion of commuter / business travellers. Whereas in October leisure falls of& and commuting and business return.

Now, there’s even more leisure travellers, but fewer commuters and business.

I‘ll try to illustrate, with some fictional (but close enough) numbers.

Pre Covid August segmentation of passengers:

Leisure travel 60%
Commuting 30%
Business 10%

Pre Covid October segmentation of passengers

Leisure 40%
Commuting 45%
Business 15%

Current ‘return rate’ as a % of 2019 (which is consistent across the months)

Leisure 110%
commuting 60%
business 30%


August 2022 numbers:

Leisure 66% (60*110%)
commuting 18% (30*60%)
business 3% (10*30%)

total 87%

October 2022 numbers

Leisure 44% (40*110%)
commuting 27% (45*60%)
business 4.5% (15*30%)

total 75.5%

But surely this is geographically dependent? Those figures are nationally surely?

 

[Kite159]

Now that we're moving towards winter I wonder just how much the general public, sometimes known as customers, will move away from their brief flirtation with the railway regardless of the "climate emergency" the MSM keeps telling us about. Perhaps the future of the railway should be BR 2.0 - much lower train frequency and higher prices - together with a reduced budget. After all there's a "financial crisis" you know and everyone's got to tighten their belt. At least it might solve the driver shortage problem.

Especially as other bills have increased so people have less spare income to spend on leisure travel, either cutting back to doing the odd day trip rather than a long weekend etc.

 

[Dave91131]

Now that we're moving towards winter I wonder just how much the general public, sometimes known as customers, will move away from their brief flirtation with the railway regardless of the "climate emergency" the MSM keeps telling us about. Perhaps the future of the railway should be BR 2.0 - much lower train frequency and higher prices - together with a reduced budget. After all there's a "financial crisis" you know and everyone's got to tighten their belt. At least it might solve the driver shortage problem.

I'm on board (or not with no pun intended) with the idea that it's time to start permanently reducing frequencies on a good number of routes. As the ongoing strikes, combined with the shambolic and disgraceful state of the rail network, have shown, passengers will simply find another way to travel and in many instances won't bother to return to the railway at all.

The fare paying passenger wants a service they can rely upon, and the railway is simply unable to give them that any longer. Better to make permanent cuts and have a timetable which can be relied upon than keep failing to provide services at frequencies which cannot be achieved. As stated, if passengers don't like the slashed timetable they can walk away and find other ways to travel. I know I'd rather do that than consistently have my plans torn to shreds by the pathetic excuse for a railway the country has now.

 

[Bald Rick]

But surely this is geographically dependent? Those figures are nationally surely?

Yes x2. But something like 80% of all rail travel is to or from London, or wholly within London, so this does rather dominate matters.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm on board (or not with no pun intended) with the idea that it's time to start permanently reducing frequencies on a good number of routes. As the ongoing strikes, combined with the shambolic and disgraceful state of the rail network, have shown, passengers will simply find another way to travel and in many instances won't bother to return to the railway at all.

The fare paying passenger wants a service they can rely upon, and the railway is simply unable to give them that any longer. Better to make permanent cuts and have a timetable which can be relied upon than keep failing to provide services at frequencies which cannot be achieved. As stated, if passengers don't like the slashed timetable they can walk away and find other ways to travel. I know I'd rather do that than consistently have my plans torn to shreds by the pathetic excuse for a railway the country has now.

Except that they can't always walk away and find an alternative mode.

For non-motorists, rail is often the only viable alternative for medium - long distance journeys.

 

[The exile]

Especially as other bills have increased so people have less spare income to spend on leisure travel, either cutting back to doing the odd day trip rather than a long weekend etc.

Although for the railway it is fairly irrelevant whether out and back is on the same day or spread over 3 days. (Ok - day trip is likely to be shorter)

 

[Bald Rick]

The fare paying passenger wants a service they can rely upon, and the railway is simply unable to give them that any longer.

Why do you say that? Performance in terms of punctuality is still somewhat better than it was in the 2 years Pre Covid. Unless you mean the impact of the strikes of course.

 

[The exile]

Why do you say that? Performance in terms of punctuality is still somewhat better than it was in the 2 years Pre Covid. Unless you mean the impact of the strikes of course.

Possibly because it’s being measured against this near fraudulent “timetable of the day”?

 

[Watershed]

Why do you say that? Performance in terms of punctuality is still somewhat better than it was in the 2 years Pre Covid. Unless you mean the impact of the strikes of course.

But just as passenger recovery is much stronger in some categories than others, performance is a very mixed bag. Large parts of the north and particularly the northwest are suffering from continuing unreliability from Avanti, TPE and Northern.

Of course by raw numbers these only make up a small proportion of all services and passengers. But that doesn't mitigate the impact on the millions who 'enjoy' a rail service so unreliable that, in many cases, it may as well not exist.

 

[bengley]

2022-10-16 (Sunday)
Jubilee 15:43 Wembley Park - Willesden Green: mostly empty
Metropolitan 14:57 Chesham - Wembley Park: empty
Metropolitan 08:54 Harrow-on-the-Hill - Chesham (fast): empty
Metropolitan 08:28 Wembley Park - Harrow-on-the-Hill: empty
Jubilee 08:20 Willesden Green - Wembley Park: empty

2022-10-15 (Saturday)
Thameslink 18:52 St Albans City - Cricklewood: empty
Thameslink 15:16 Cricklewood - St Albans City: mostly empty

It seems that weekend traffic on the suburban lines are still empty.

As a former regular user of the Met I am fairly sure that those trains being empty isn't unusual. They're travelling against the normal peak flow into or out of central London.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

One of the problems of trying to match services with demand is that reducing services means there's less likely to be a convenient service to be used and therefore less demand. Every 15 Min timetable is a turn up and go where every 30mins might require more planning and car becomes faster and more convenient.

 

[Class 170101]

Why do you say that? Performance in terms of punctuality is still somewhat better than it was in the 2 years Pre Covid. Unless you mean the impact of the strikes of course.

It isn't just strikes though. Look at TPE and Avanti both have been criticised in recent days and weeks for not offering the service they say they intend to provide. Indeed BBC News was reporting on both yesterday

Northern regional mayors late for rail briefing after train cancelled

Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram held the briefing to demand more funding for train operators.

www.bbc.co.uk

Northern regional mayors late for rail briefing after train cancelled

Two mayors were late for their press conference about "rail chaos" in the north of England because their train was cancelled.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and Liverpool City Region mayor Steve Rotheram are lobbying for a cash boost for TransPennine Express and Northern.
They are calling on the government to immediately increase funding for train operators.
Mr Rotheram said the irony of their cancelled service was not lost on them.

The railway needs to be able to provide the service the public wants and needs otherwise revenue will fall away.

 

[Minstral25]

I commute from Horsham to Farringdon every Tuesday and have done so over the last year. My experience is the train is quiet going into London, but that may be because I catch a 7:55 train which is later than most people. Coming home, the train is much busier although I remember worse pre-pandemic in the evening peak and there is always a large crowd getting off at Horsham, which I guess are commuters that caught an earlier train than me in the morning..

Can agree with that experience. I'm generally on the previous Thameslink from Redhill to Farringdon on Fridays - busy but not full to Purley where it starts filling up, except when there has been cancellations when it gets very busy from Redhill.

Coming home is a different matter as trains are very full from London Bridge emptying out along the Redhill route stations.

 

[Bald Rick]

It isn't just strikes though. Look at TPE and Avanti both have been criticised in recent days and weeks for not offering the service they say they intend to provide. Indeed BBC News was reporting on both yesterday

Two TOCs, who between them provided 2.5% of rail services in the country before Covid, are having a bad time. What about the rest?

 

[Class 170101]

Two TOCs, who between them provided 2.5% of rail services in the country before Covid, are having a bad time. What about the rest?

I've just picked on those two because they are in the news this weekend but Northern, Thameslink have been in the news for the wsrong reasons in recent months.

 

[Dave91131]

I've just picked on those two because they are in the news this weekend but Northern, Thameslink have been in the news for the wsrong reasons in recent months.

I'll also offer up LNER (multiple cancellations on a daily basis north of Newcastle or Edinburgh), EMR local and regional services and Cross Country 170 operated routes.

Throw that lot together and chuck the strikes in for good measure, and you've got a totally dysfunctional and unreliable network which I now do only one thing at - laugh.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'll also offer up LNER (multiple cancellations on a daily basis north of Newcastle or Edinburgh), EMR local and regional services and Cross Country 170 operated routes.

Throw that lot together and chuck the strikes in for good measure, and you've got a totally dysfunctional and unreliable network which I now do only one thing at - laugh.

OK, Avanti, LNER, EMR local and regional, and Cross Country’s 170 operated routes run, between them, 5% of the network’s services. Or put another way, less than half of Scotrail.

 

[Dave91131]

OK, Avanti, LNER, EMR local and regional, and Cross Country’s 170 operated routes run, between them, 5% of the network’s services. Or put another way, less than half of Scotrail.

So add to that 5% TPE (atrocious), Northern (running no services at all on some routes and a reduced service on others), Thameslink (who tend to have one meltdown or another most days), may as well throw ScotRail in too now you come to mention them as they're not exactly reliable day to day at present.

Irrespective of what percentage of all services on the network those TOC's operate, I fail to see how anyone can honestly say the fare paying passenger is presently receiving a service worthy of the fare they pay.

 

[Ken H]

Of course 80% ridrrship does not mean 8o% revenue. If trains are full of people on heavily discounted tickets the effect of rail finances will be severe.

 

[Watershed]

Of course 80% ridrrship does not mean 8o% revenue. If trains are full of people on heavily discounted tickets the effect of rail finances will be severe.

I'm not sure about heavily discounted tickets, but the recovery in passengers has been much stronger amongst leisure travellers. These are typically happy to adjust their travel to the times when Off-Peak tickets are valid, or to use Advance tickets.

The recovery in business travel has been much weaker, and similarly with commuting.

Unsurprisingly, this means that sales of Off-Peak and Advance tickets are higher than pre-pandemic, whilst sales of Anytime and season tickets are lower - with according implications for revenue.

 

[Western 52]

I presume the fall in business travel will be impacting first class ticket sales more severely. Just as TfW are introducing more first class on the Marches line!

 

[Llandudno]

I presume the fall in business travel will be impacting first class ticket sales more severely. Just as TfW are introducing more first class on the Marches line!

I suppose it will depend on how much extra TfW will charge for first class, if the extra charge is reasonable then some long distance leisure travellers my be prepared to pay for it, especially if it means they don’t have to stand in cattle class, which is often the case on Manchester-Cardiff route!

 

[Kite159]

I suppose it will depend on how much extra TfW will charge for first class, if the extra charge is reasonable then some long distance leisure travellers my be prepared to pay for it, especially if it means they don’t have to stand in cattle class, which is often the case on Manchester-Cardiff route!

And how reliable they are.

No point paying extra for first class if the loco hauled set gets replaced by a pair of 153s

 

[HSTEd]

Why do you say that? Performance in terms of punctuality is still somewhat better than it was in the 2 years Pre Covid. Unless you mean the impact of the strikes of course.

Well I would argue that you can hardly ignore the impact of the strikes.

There appears little possibility that industrial relations will improve any time soon - and ultimately the passenger doesn't care why the service isn't running - they only care if it runs or not.

 

[ATS3]

I commute from Horsham to Farringdon every Tuesday and have done so over the last year. My experience is the train is quiet going into London, but that may be because I catch a 7:55 train which is later than most people. Coming home, the train is much busier although I remember worse pre-pandemic in the evening peak and there is always a large crowd getting off at Horsham, which I guess are commuters that caught an earlier train than me in the morning..

Farringdon is my local station.. gets pretty busy Tuesdays-Thursdays morning and evening peaks now. Monday decently busy too, with only Friday being a little quiet compared to pre-pandemic (but with many people still travelling) I commute the opposite way from the South sometimes and indeed the trains are quiet going out like some others have said on this thread

 

[Oxfordblues]

I was always taught to be careful with statistics. If the measure of the number of journeys is based on ticket sales then the increase of split-ticketing might distort this. If you buy two tickets for a journey it thinks you've made two journeys.

 

[david1212]

I was always taught to be careful with statistics. If the measure of the number of journeys is based on ticket sales then the increase of split-ticketing might distort this. If you buy two tickets for a journey it thinks you've made two journeys.

Linked to this is passenger miles. Of course it depends on the split but if roughly mid-distance 100% increase in the number journeys but each ~50% shorter.
If 200 x 50mile round trip commutes become 100 x 80 mile round trips 50% fewer journeys but only 20% fewer miles.
If they became 100 x 120 mile round trips 50% fewer journeys but 20% more miles.
As a national system the UK has nothing close to linear pricing or even linear pricing with a roll-off but if it did in the first case a revenue loss of 20% to perhaps 30% and in the second between a 20% gain and perhaps revenue neutral.

 

[Western 52]

How does the system know how many journeys those with season tickets or rovers make? Some sort of average assumption maybe?

 

[Bald Rick]

How does the system know how many journeys those with season tickets or rovers make? Some sort of average assumption maybe?

yes, backed up by research. The assumptions were changed a couple of years ago, as seasons had generally overcounted.

 

[philthetube]

I'm not sure about heavily discounted tickets, but the recovery in passengers has been much stronger amongst leisure travellers. These are typically happy to adjust their travel to the times when Off-Peak tickets are valid, or to use Advance tickets.

The recovery in business travel has been much weaker, and similarly with commuting.

Unsurprisingly, this means that sales of Off-Peak and Advance tickets are higher than pre-pandemic, whilst sales of Anytime and season tickets are lower - with according implications for revenue.

I am not sure about heavily discounted tickets either, there seem to be far less of these available then previously, so presumably people are having to pay more for travel.