When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[brad465]

Great quote from Boris today, on why he isn't backing any leadership candidate: ""I wouldn't want to damage anybody's chances by offering my support," he told reporters."

For all his faults (and there were many), that rather obviously shows someone who actually does have a lot of self-awareness, and also hasn't lost his sense of humour even after losing his job in the way he did. I would say that, after getting caught out on so many lies, he had to go, but at the same time that quote does seem to show up a rather different personality from what many of his detractors imagine he is like.

Yes I was very surprised to see him have said that. I suspect you are correct in him having a lot of self-awareness, what's different now is that as he's going, he can say things knowing they won't damage him among certain groups he needs the support of. Unfortunately one of the main rules in politics seems to be never to admit to your own faults, even though admitting faults is not a sign of weakness in a person.

Truss. Only slightly less vacuous than Dorries.

According to Henry Zeffman of The Times, this email has been doing the rounds to Tory MPs and Peers trying to get backing for Truss:

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1546460540184272896

Literally hundreds of MPs and peers have just received a mass email from a member of the public as follows:

 

[najaB]

Great quote from Boris today, on why he isn't backing any leadership candidate: ""I wouldn't want to damage anybody's chances by offering my support," he told reporters."

For all his faults (and there were many), that rather obviously shows someone who actually does have a lot of self-awareness, and also hasn't lost his sense of humour even after losing his job in the way he did.

That depends on how he meant it - he could have meant it the way I'm reading it (that his endorsement would hurt the candidate, and therefore help the others) or he may well have meant it the other way around.

 

[jfollows]

Dorries is probably heading straight to the Lords. I absolutely cannot imagine her in any sort of leadership campaign.

Her likely departure, along with that of Andrew Griffith, are thought to bring into question the legislation to "privatise" Channel 4. Some of the candidates for party leader (Tugendhat & Hunt) are known to be doubtful about the plan's merits, and I think it's a solution looking for a problem, and there is a good chance that if a new PM wants to bring in new legislation then this Channel 4 thing may simply get shoved to one side as being less important.

 

[nlogax]

That depends on how he meant it - he could have meant it the way I'm reading it (that his endorsement would hurt the candidate, and therefore help the others) or he may well have meant it the other way around.

Exactly. Maybe he doesn't want to damage the chances of anyone for whom he doesn't offer support. Not beyond the realms of possibility.

Her likely departure, along with that of Andrew Griffith, are thought to bring into question the legislation to "privatise" Channel 4.

Certainly a potential positive stemming from all the ongoing chaos! I think this is much more likely than (say) the chances of a Labour-lead parliamentary VoNC succeeding.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yes I was very surprised to see him have said that. I suspect you are correct in him having a lot of self-awareness, what's different now is that as he's going, he can say things knowing they won't damage him among certain groups he needs the support of. Unfortunately one of the main rules in politics seems to be never to admit to your own faults, even though admitting faults is not a sign of weakness in a person.

Whereas him saying that didn't surprise me at all [*]. It's perfectly consistent with a similar bit of self-deprecation/self-awareness in his resignation speech from last week:

And to you, the British public, I know that there will be many people who are relieved and perhaps quite a few who will also be disappointed. And I want you to know how sad I am to be giving up the best job in the world. But them’s the breaks.

I actually think it's quite instructive to watch that speech. Others (mainly those who don't like him anyway) correctly pointed out that there was no apology or acknowledgement of recent mistakes in it. But what also struck me listening to it was that his tone of voice and demeanour showed no trace of bitterness or anger. The whole thing was very optimistic for the future. And then look at the comment he made in the middle of his speech:

And my friends, in politics, no one is remotely indispensable, and our brilliant and Darwinian system will produce another leader, equally committed to taking this country forward through tough times

In other words, he's basically praising the very democracy that had just got rid of him, and making it clear that he thinks it's a good thing that we can get rid of leaders when we want to. People often compare him to Trump (and to be fair there were certainly similarities between the two in terms of populist approach and cavalier attitude to facts) - but here, the contrast with the way Trump would lash out at any electoral failure and refused to give up power even after he'd lost the election couldn't be greater.

Like I said in my previous post, Boris had to go. But at the same time, I would say those people who sought to interpret everything he did/said in a bad way actually got much of his character and beliefs very wrong.

[*] And in a similar vein, I'm not at all surprised that, on current reports, he is fully intending to continue as an MP, at least until the next general election.

 

[Busaholic]

The World of silly online conspiracy theories clearly knows no bounds....

Has anyone yet discovered exactly whereabouts on the Moon Elvis is currently living?

Didn't you know? He's living on the top deck of that 159 Routemaster bus that's been up there for a decade or three.

 

[nw1]

Suella Braveman mouthing off on Twtter that voting for Brexit meant a vote for leaving the ECHR. For an Attorney General not to understand that the EU & ECHR are two completely different kettle of fish is quite frankly astounding.

Suella by name, Cruella by nature.

Obviously aiming at the foaming-at-the-mouth variety of Tory.

No chance of winning, but if she did it would guarantee a historic loss for the Tories at the next election.

 

[brad465]

[*] And in a similar vein, I'm not at all surprised that, on current reports, he is fully intending to continue as an MP, at least until the next general election.

On this point I wouldn't conclude what he will do regarding his future as an MP. He may stay on, he may not, former PMs have done one or the other. May obviously has stayed on, but Cameron said he'd stay on after resigning as PM, but then after the summer recess that year stepped down as an MP, so Johnson could change his mind (Johnson would be no worse than Cameron given his stance).

I do think though if he doesn't resign as an MP he could be deposed if the Privileges Committee investigation finds against him on misleading Parliament. If they recommend a suspension long enough to trigger a recall petition, then he'll cease to be an MP, but if he resigns as an MP I assume the investigation will either cease or be meaningless. If a by-election happens it's a Labour target seat, and recent polling has regularly suggested that seat would flip, however I think now he's on the way out, any by-election could be held, especially if it happens during a new leader poll bounce. Based on this I think it's more likely than not he'll leave Parliament before the next election, however it's plausible he will try and stay on.

 

[Typhoon]

The controversy was that her video clearly identified "famous" people, sports people, etc. who were not asked if they minded appearing in her video and they made it very clear that they did mind, so the videos had to be changed. See https://www.theguardian.com/politic...at-woke-tag-as-she-joins-tory-leadership-race:

The original, along with Jonnie Peacock's interesting response, can be found at https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ch-video-after-embarrassing-gaffes/ar-AAZq4n1
and probably elsewhere too. Johnny Bairstow and a clip of Sarah Gilbert (replaced by a still) were removed as well.
I personally would prefer it if politicians did not use Holst's music to 'I vow to Thee, My Country', it is reflective of a time. At Remembrance is OK, as that is a essential a Christian service (although many, of different religions and none, fought and, indeed, made the final sacrifice). However 'We must choose not just for ourselves, but for all of us' and that applies not just to the component nations within the UK but to the individuals within these nations.

I don't have a vote but if I did, it wouldn't go to Mordaunt. I'm beginning to think Johnson wasn't so bad after all.

 

[TwoYellas]

Apparently Zahawi's tax affairs are under investigation. I even read the story may have been leaked by a leadership rival.

Also, Goves backing Badenoch - can't help but wonder what he stands to gain.

 

[WatcherZero]

Not if Nanny beats them to it.

Being in your 50's and still having the nanny you had as a baby (now nearly 80) as your house servant isnt creepy at all.

 

[nlogax]

Being in your 50's and still having the nanny you had as a baby (now nearly 80) as your house servant isnt creepy at all.

Not creepy, and totally representative of the electorate of course.

 

[Typhoon]

Apparently Zahawi's tax affairs are under investigation. I even read the story may have been leaked by a leadership rival.

Also, Goves backing Badenoch - can't help but wonder what he stands to gain.

Hedging his bets? If he supports the likes of Sunak or Truss and the other wins, he may well be condemned to the outer darkness. This way, he can spin some twaddle about always knowing that Sunak/ Truss/ whoever would win so wanted to give an up and coming candidate a chance.

This is a difficult time for Gove. Whoever wins will either win the next election in which case, if Gove has backed a credible opponent he may well be out of power for a serious amount of time; if they lose the election the Tories are in opposition, same result. I reckon that Gove likes being a minister, especially one with power. He won't want to give uup!

Not just Zahawi in a bit of difficulty:

Leaked files reveal how Uber lobbied top ministers at undeclared meetings while fighting restrictions to its ride-hailing service in the UK.

Documents show then-London mayor Boris Johnson was "the ultimate target" of the lobbying strategy.

Undeclared meetings with lobbyists expose loopholes in ministerial code, campaigners say.

...

In the UK, Uber's behind-the-scenes campaign went right to the top. The files record a series of meetings between the company, its lobbyists and senior members of the then-government that went undeclared.

They include meetings with the current home secretary Priti Patel, Tory leadership contender Sajid Javid, and recently sacked cabinet minister Michael Gove.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62099061

 

[Gloster]

Apparently Zahawi's tax affairs are under investigation. I even read the story may have been leaked by a leadership rival.

An item on the Grauniad’s site (on Saturday?) ended with a dig at Sunak. “A source close to Zahawi said he and his wife had never claimed non-domicile status.”

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Also, Goves backing Badenoch - can't help but wonder what he stands to gain.

Not everything is always about personal gain! Have you considered the possibility that maybe he simply believes that Kemi Badenoch is the best candidate?

 

[TwoYellas]

Who is the most socialist out of this lot?

Anyone know?

(As far as this party can be that is).

 

[brad465]

Who is the most socialist out of this lot?

Anyone know?

(As far as this party can be that is).

For the future, no idea, from past experience, Sunak I'd say.

 

[TwoYellas]

Not everything is always about personal gain! Have you considered the possibility that maybe he simply believes that Kemi Badenoch is the best candidate?

I'm more cynical these days. And Gove's maneuvering in the past leads me to believe the statement below is more likely than yours.

Hedging his bets? If he supports the likes of Sunak or Truss and the other wins, he may well be condemned to the outer darkness. This way, he can spin some twaddle about always knowing that Sunak/ Truss/ whoever would win so wanted to give an up and coming candidate a chance.

Often people are looking out for themselves, promotions peerages etc.

 

[nw1]

The original, along with Jonnie Peacock's interesting response, can be found at https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ch-video-after-embarrassing-gaffes/ar-AAZq4n1
and probably elsewhere too. Johnny Bairstow and a clip of Sarah Gilbert (replaced by a still) were removed as well.
I personally would prefer it if politicians did not use Holst's music to 'I vow to Thee, My Country', it is reflective of a time. At Remembrance is OK, as that is a essential a Christian service (although many, of different religions and none, fought and, indeed, made the final sacrifice). However 'We must choose not just for ourselves, but for all of us' and that applies not just to the component nations within the UK but to the individuals within these nations.

I don't have a vote but if I did, it wouldn't go to Mordaunt. I'm beginning to think Johnson wasn't so bad after all.

Besides, if Mordaunt is woke than I am Boris Johnson.

 

[matacaster]

You have to imagine that Sunak must be Labour's favourite. I mean, a literal billionaire as PM during a cost of living crisis, could there be any easier target?

Has sunak placed a lot of bets on himself?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Jul 2022 ==

For the future, no idea, from past experience, Sunak I'd say.

Of course it's easy for sunak to splash the general publics cash in the traditional labour manner, but somewhat more difficult to take seriously if you have a £700m fortune, but don't feel you'd like to share it. Family motto "I am alright Jack"?

 

[dosxuk]

Jacob Rees-Mogg is reported to be considering standing, now that would funny if he weren't such a twit.

EDIT All this would achieve would be to increase Rishi Sunak's chances by diluting the anti-Rishi "right" vote.

Remember there are multiple rounds of voting until they're down to the last two - even if the anti-Rishi vote is spread out, it doesn't automatically hand him the win, especially if the rest of them form into an anyone-but-Rishi grouping in the final three candidates.

 

[Lost property]

I'd heard the same, and although there's been concern raised about the implications of Boris Johnson's resignation honours, I'd be happy to see here go there, where she will doubtless be ignored by the majority of her new colleagues even if she bothers to show up.

Not if Nanny beats them to it.

There's always a possibility, if this were the case, some deep rooted Freudian instincts from the past would result in a level of enjoyment then

 

[nlogax]

Priti Patel is currently talking with the ERG to get their approval before she throws her horns into the ring.

 

[TwoYellas]

Priti Patel is currently talking with the ERG to get their approval before she throws her horns into the ring.

A colleague at work said to me a few months ago that she'd make it to PM one day. He's further to the right than Genghis Khan, but other than that he's alright!

 

[Busaholic]

Steve Baker on PM radio programme just now said he believed JRM was going to stand, though he'd be doing his best to dissuade him. Baker is Suella Braverman's Campaign Manager, by the way

 

[WatcherZero]

I am waiting for the first parody image of Boris and his 12 potential sucessors as The Last Supper.

 

[Busaholic]

He's further to the right than Genghis Khan, but other than that he's alright!

And Hitler had his good side?

 

[HST274]

I am waiting for the first parody image of Boris and his 12 potential sucessors as The Last Supper.

There are several candidates to play Judas...

 

[Annetts key]

A colleague at work said to me a few months ago that she'd make it to PM one day. He's further to the right than Genghis Khan, but other than that he's alright!

If you shove him further to the right, will he go round 180 degrees and pop up on the far left?

 

[brad465]

If you shove him further to the right, will he go round 180 degrees and pop up on the far left?

According to the Horseshoe Theory, those on the far-left and far-right are closer to each other on many points of view than either is to the centre ground.