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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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Shrop

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Even though I don't like Hunt much, and don't like the Tories in general, I would have voted for him as the least-worst option in such an election.
This comment epitomises why we need electoral reform. Far too many people vote for the thing they dislike least, wouldn't it be better if you could vote positively, ie for what you wanted most, and to know that your vote really would count?
 
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Busaholic

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Unfortunately, that's an unavoidable consequence of the Westminster system. We would need to separate the role of PM from party leader, is there any practical way to do that?
It seems to me that Johnson sees himself in Presidential terms, no doubt 'inspired' by that intellectual colossus Trump. I really do think it's up to all of the population of GB who consider that idea to be anathema to do what we can to oppose both him and his party (until they come to their senses, if they ever do) at every turn and call their lies and sophistry out at every opportunity.
 

najaB

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If the leader is also the leader of the governing party, put the vote to the general public, so we don't get a PM forced on us by unrepresentative party members.
That's back to the directly-elected PM route, which is something foreign to UK politics.

Perhaps it could be an election by MPs which would (notionally) separate the role of party leader from that of PM, especially if it required more than a simple majority.
 

daodao

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The LibDems not only strongly support electoral reform (unsurprisingly since that would give them many more seats), but strongly support STV - a system that is not only not truly proportional, but is likely to particularly favour the LibDems because, as the perceived centre-party, they'd tend to get the 2nd-preference votes of both Labour and Tory supporters.
An example of an anodyne party making hay using the STV system occurred in the Six Counties at the recent Assembly elections there; the Alliance party received 13% of 1st preference votes but gained 17 out of 90 seats (19%). I suspect this was due to SDLP-supporting Castle Catholics voting Alliance as 2nd preference rather than Sinn Fein.
 

david1212

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Labour in 2005 got 355 seats - ie. a comfortable majority - on just 35.2% of the vote, so as mentioned above they have benefitted from this too in the recent past. (In the same election, the Tories got 32.4% but only 198 seats). That's probably the most obvious candidate for 'least fair' result in living memory.

They still got 258 seats in 2010 on only 29% of the vote! Corbyn only got 4 more seats than that in 2017 with 40%...

Yes I agree, the reason I highlighted those 4 examples above was because of how similar the vote shares were in all of them, thus how getting a set number of votes doesn't guarantee a set number of seats. 2005 probably is the least fair example with regards to a winning party, but with regards to votes translating into seats for any given party, the least fair outcome by far has to be UKIP in 2015: 3.8 million votes but only 1 seat to show for it, and in the other direction, the SNP getting less votes than UKIP but 56 seats.

Yes...

But then like so much of our polticial processes its from a different era and arguably not fit for the 21st century.

Exactly. It simply is not right that a party that was the first choice of little more than 1 in 3 who voted can get a comfortable working majority. Similarly that a party can get 56 seats with fewer votes than another who got just a single seat.


Yes...

A polticial party, like any private group, should be able to choose its leader how it sees fits. But when it's also choosing the Prime Minister it feels somewhat sub-optimal that basically it all rests on one man collecting letters and emails in secret.

Think back to after the Brexit vote. Initially Gove backed Johnson then withdrew his backing to stand himself. This effectively handed the PM role to May. Sub-optimal as a description IMO is far too weak.

Sadly you're probably right. Tory MPs are incredibly self-serving, and so is the Party as a whole. As for their voters, well let's hope they see some sense after the recent blatant dishonesty.

Are MP's of any other party really much different especially once they are not just a back-bencher and/or seeking promotion so protecting their role / position and close colleagues ? Another aspect for all is thinking of life after Westminster ?
 

JamesT

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That's back to the directly-elected PM route, which is something foreign to UK politics.

Perhaps it could be an election by MPs which would (notionally) separate the role of party leader from that of PM, especially if it required more than a simple majority.
In theory the PM is appointed by the monarch as someone “who can command the confidence of the house”. It’s just turned out that’s ended up meaning the leader of the largest party. There have been a couple of occasions in the recent past when people have suggested governments with alternatives (the anti-Brexit GNU and 2010 Lib-Lab coalition). But it usually founders on how a PM who is not in charge of their party works. Can the party leader whip the PM into particular policies?
I’d be concerned with a vote of MPs as to the possibility of other parties playing games. E.g. the election of John Bercow where it was nominally the Conservatives turn to pick the speaker, but the other parties voted for someone most Tories loathed.
 

AM9

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Exactly. It simply is not right that a party that was the first choice of little more than 1 in 3 who voted can get a comfortable working majority. Similarly that a party can get 56 seats with fewer votes than another who got just a single seat.
Not a very good example of the inadequacy of FPTP systems. The SNP is a party that only stands in 59 Scottish constituencies where the total electorate is about 9% of the UK total. UKIP however stood in 624 constituencies in which none of them saw UKIP as suitable MP material. Even if they had only contested seats in areas where their policies suited the local demographics e.g. north east Essex, Lincolnshire, north Kent, etc., the proportion of votes that they had would represent the level of support in those areas, i.e. still not enough.
 

edwin_m

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An example of an anodyne party making hay using the STV system occurred in the Six Counties at the recent Assembly elections there; the Alliance party received 13% of 1st preference votes but gained 17 out of 90 seats (19%). I suspect this was due to SDLP-supporting Castle Catholics voting Alliance as 2nd preference rather than Sinn Fein.
Nobody has to place a second preference, if they object to all the parties except one. The fact that most people do express that preference indicates that they are thinking about what they would be able to live with if their preferred party doesn't win. So STV and coalitions ensure that a majority of people get a party in power that they would at least partly support. That's much less true in the case of FPTP especially in the current UK situation where there is probably little overlap between Conservative support and that for other parties.
 

nw1

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If you had to use weather comparisons as a benchmark, what weather would best describe B. Johnson and J.Corbyn?

Johnson: a "big wind storm" hyped by the media which turns out to be a non event. It could be "Storm Boris".
 

jfollows

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ITV reporting rumours that Boris is phoning MPs who have been expressing doubts about his leadership and hinting that they may be promoted if the offer him their support (https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1531615589105643520|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/31/government-travel-demand-covid-boris-johnson-conservatives-uk-politics-latest):
Word among Conservative MPs is that Boris Johnson has begun calling his critics, hinting at the prospect of promotion and asking in return that they 'stay with me'. Clearly No 10 feel the threat of a confidence vote if those kind of approaches are being made.
EDIT I just hope that the recipients of these phone calls respond with a huge raspberry, in the knowledge that any promise from Boris is worthless like all of his other promises.
 

Typhoon

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ITV reporting rumours that Boris is phoning MPs who have been expressing doubts about his leadership and hinting that they may be promoted if the offer him their support (https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV?re...oris-johnson-conservatives-uk-politics-latest):
I'm not convinced the 'threat' of being promoted will be a game changer; many of those expressing concern are old stagers who are happy on the back benches, or are too independently minded to want to sit in the Cabinet Room chanting election promises. They may also feel they will get a better deal under an alternative. It might also concern some of those holding office that they will be pushed aside to make way for the new 'loyalists'.
If this is true (big IF), it is a sign of a desperate man and things are worse than I thought.

Not a very good example of the inadequacy of FPTP systems. The SNP is a party that only stands in 59 Scottish constituencies where the total electorate is about 9% of the UK total. UKIP however stood in 624 constituencies in which none of them saw UKIP as suitable MP material. Even if they had only contested seats in areas where their policies suited the local demographics e.g. north east Essex, Lincolnshire, north Kent, etc., the proportion of votes that they had would represent the level of support in those areas, i.e. still not enough.
You are right. We forget that currently (I think) there are eleven political parties represented in the Commons - seven are confined to only one of the nations that make up the UK (although. of course, Sinn Fein also operate south of the border).
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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If they
Another letter today. At least 28 so far.
If these letters keep coming at this same rate, it is going to take some time to reach the magic figure required and that is not the end of the matter.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Why is Corbyn at all relevant? May as well hark back to Thatcher and everyone in between.
The question was trying to compare what type of weather forecasts would best descrribe the characters and charisma of two people who had occupied the position of "head honcho" offered.
 

birchesgreen

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Corbyn weather would at first appear benign and pleasant but would suddenly toss you into a muddy ditch after a sudden gust of wind, and then rain on you
 

Busaholic

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It might also concern some of those holding office that they will be pushed aside to make way for the new 'loyalists'.
If this is true (big IF), it is a sign of a desperate man and things are worse than I thought.
Or better than you thought? ;)
 

Shrop

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During the many, many times that Boris faced questions about Partygate, he said every time, "I get it. I get people's anger. I understand their frustration", or words to those effects. (That's when he wasn't answering the question by saying "There's a war in Ukraine you know"). All of those who blindly support him said the same things.
So after all of this, and after the Sue Grey report was eventually issued, he then said he thought it was reasonable to have a drink to celebrate the service of people who were leaving. Just how did that demonstrate understanding of the situation? I suspect the Tory supporters on this forum will stay strangely quiet about this one.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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During the many, many times that Boris faced questions about Partygate, he said every time, "I get it. I get people's anger. I understand their frustration", or words to those effects. (That's when he wasn't answering the question by saying "There's a war in Ukraine you know"). All of those who blindly support him said the same things.
So after all of this, and after the Sue Grey report was eventually issued, he then said he thought it was reasonable to have a drink to celebrate the service of people who were leaving. Just how did that demonstrate understanding of the situation? I suspect the Tory supporters on this forum will stay strangely quiet about this one.
Whereas there will be countless posting reminders from the supporters of other political parties.

Mind you, one of my "true-blue" neighbours (well, they all are round where I live) jokingly compared Johnson to Flashman from the Rugby public school and Tom Brown's schooldays.
 

nw1

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Corbyn weather would at first appear benign and pleasant but would suddenly toss you into a muddy ditch after a sudden gust of wind, and then rain on you

Corbyn weather I'd imagine would be a bit dull and damp.

But an alternative take on "Storm Boris". Developing in situ over the UK in July 2019, fuelled by a nearby low, Low Dominic "C", it faced, for a few months, a decent challenge from various high pressure areas trying to move it out of the way, but sadly the weak and feeble "High Jeremy" and "High Jo" did little, despite things looking good in around September. Instead, it deepened explosively on 13 Dec 2019, producing a day of high winds and heavy rain. It then stayed put and on 31 Jan 2020 rough seas caused by Storm Boris caused the Channel Tunnel to be severed.

Since then it's stayed in situ over the UK and weakened slowly, but has never disappeared thanks to being fed by various secondary low-pressure areas such as Low Priti, Low Nadine and Low Dominic "R". (Low Dominic "C" was absorbed by Storm Boris in Dec 2020). Nearby High Keir has posed something of a challenge to it, but it remains to be seen whether it can move it out of the way.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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It's heartening to see a good few comments that aren't fully supportive of the present electoral system, and acknowledging that it has flaws. In fact, are there many people on this thread who do support the present archaic system? Of course we know the tired old argument that it's hard to make decisions without a clear majority, however there are times when having this clear majority leads to decisions which smack of a Dictatorship. It would be interesting to develop this discussion about how appropriate people think the present system is (which I suggest is relevant to this thread), and how it might be updated.

We know that the Tories are already scratching around to appease the public after Partygate, by handing out money in a pretty arbitrary manner, and making questionable suggestions about moving away from metric measurements. Perhaps if they were to come up with something more meaningful like electoral reform, while they still have the power to propose it, then even though it risks losing them some seats, it may end up losing fewer for them than simply trotting out the same old negative anti-Labour (and other Party) tirades that they invariably do as the next General Election gets nearer.
The 2010-15 coalition period was reasonable in my view. Liberals were able to temper Tories aspirations but stupid Liberal voters didn't like what they had implemented and instigated they chaos we now find ourselves in. Coalitions by their nature require compromises and the Liberals should have realised that more than anyone else.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

ITV reporting rumours that Boris is phoning MPs who have been expressing doubts about his leadership and hinting that they may be promoted if the offer him their support (https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1531615589105643520|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/31/government-travel-demand-covid-boris-johnson-conservatives-uk-politics-latest):

EDIT I just hope that the recipients of these phone calls respond with a huge raspberry, in the knowledge that any promise from Boris is worthless like all of his other promises.
doubt it the whole cabinet if full of sycophants who know they will be consigned to the back benches if the likes of Hunt were to make it through. The risk here is BoJo wins through and becomes even more dictatorial.
 
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Busaholic

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I think we now have the answer to the question posed in the title thread. That moment has been reached NOW and it's going to be a rapid downhill trajectory for Boris Johnson. Former Tory party leaders on three consecutive days (IDS. Michael Howard and today William Hague) have either declined to offer Johnson support or, in Hague's case, have said he'll be deposed before the end of June. When you get Andrea Ledsom and ultra toady Lord Gyte weighing in, even thickskin Johnson knows the game is up. Don't expect Cameron or even May to make any public comment (yet!) Johnson will doubtless say he fights on after the 54 letter breach occurs, just like Thatcher initially did when challenged, but he won't, and there'll be a by-election in Uxbridge before the end of the year, which Labour should win if they don't f*ck it up. Ben Wallace for new Tory leader, and ultimately P.M.. anyone? Has the most support among the public - he's already top of Carrie Johnson's 'hate' list according to the Sunday Times, possibly because he didn't regurgitate the lies surrounding the animals being transported from Kabul.
 

DynamicSpirit

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If these letters keep coming at this same rate, it is going to take some time to reach the magic figure required and that is not the end of the matter.

If I was a Tory MP wanting to get rid of Boris Johnson, I'd be very tempted to wait 3 more weeks before putting my letter in: That's when the two upcoming byelections take place. Both are probably lost causes for the Tories, and it's much more likely that Boris would be defeated in a leadership vote soon after that date.
 

GusB

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I think we now have the answer to the question posed in the title thread. That moment has been reached NOW and it's going to be a rapid downhill trajectory for Boris Johnson. Former Tory party leaders on three consecutive days (IDS. Michael Howard and today William Hague) have either declined to offer Johnson support or, in Hague's case, have said he'll be deposed before the end of June. When you get Andrea Ledsom and ultra toady Lord Gyte weighing in, even thickskin Johnson knows the game is up. Don't expect Cameron or even May to make any public comment (yet!) Johnson will doubtless say he fights on after the 54 letter breach occurs, just like Thatcher initially did when challenged, but he won't, and there'll be a by-election in Uxbridge before the end of the year, which Labour should win if they don't f*ck it up. Ben Wallace for new Tory leader, and ultimately P.M.. anyone? Has the most support among the public - he's already top of Carrie Johnson's 'hate' list according to the Sunday Times, possibly because he didn't regurgitate the lies surrounding the animals being transported from Kabul.
I wonder what Maggie would say :D
 

Busaholic

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I wonder what Maggie would say :D
Much though I disliked what she did to the country, there's no way she would have attempted to hang on so desperately, she'd have had a bit more pride. Denis would probably have had a quiet word, as opposite a spouse as you could think of from Carrie.
 
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