When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[brad465]

I think you'll find that most of the population has already moved on - it's only a small minority plus the LibDems who haven't and keep trying to bring Brexit up in order to blame it for something at every opportunity

And those trying to renege on the Northern Ireland protocol, despite willingly signing it not long before (they haven't reneged yet but the threats/rhetoric around doing so are not helping). Also in 2026 the TCA with the EU has to be reviewed every 5 years, so in 2025-26 the whole Brexit thing will have to be discussed again, whoever is in charge at the time. While we can easily move on now, it will have to re-emerge whether we want it to or not.

I am a proud Remainer. I think the decision to leave the EU was the biggest act of self harm this country has ever seen. But it's what people wanted, it's happened and I accept that.

I don't blame the current situation on Brexit, because most other countries are in the same boat. There might be certain problems that are worse than they would have been without Brexit but it's not the main cause.

Our current situation is largely due to the way the world responded to the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.

Brexit is a symptom, neoliberalism is the problem. If neoliberalism worked Brexit wouldn't have happened, because a number of Brexit voters voted for it because they didn't feel the system/politics was delivering for them. Had the campaign to leave been on anti-neoliberalism terms I may have voted for it, but because it was on deregulated capitalism terms I voted Remain. I've largely moved on from Brexit and onto trying to highlight the role of our failed political-economic system in many of the national and global issues going on, because that matters a lot more right now.

 

[geoffk]

So is the UK the only country affected and is the rest of the world doing just fine ?

No, but we are doing worse. Inflation for the whole of the EU is expected to reach 6.8 per cent this year; in UK it's 9 per cent. Economic growth has been lower than that of France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Trade with countries on the other side of the world is never going to replace that lost with the EU because of new barriers. Trade talks are usually about removing barriers, not putting them up!

 

[JamesT]

No, but we are doing worse. Inflation for the whole of the EU is expected to reach 6.8 per cent this year; in UK it's 9 per cent. Economic growth has been lower than that of France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Trade with countries on the other side of the world is never going to replace that lost with the EU because of new barriers. Trade talks are usually about removing barriers, not putting them up!

Our inflation isn’t that different - https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02794/SN02794.pdf says the EU average is 8.1% in April, compared to our 9.0%.

 

[Cdd89]

The Met have concluded their Partygate investigation, with the number of fines increasing to 126

But not including new FPNs for Johnson (to my surprise, given the reporting to date). IMO it’s becoming increasingly clear that ‘Partygate’ was significantly overplayed, and those who relentlessly accused him of lying to parliament regarding his own conduct owe him an apology.

 

[Bayum]

But not including new FPNs for Johnson (to my surprise, given the reporting to date). IMO it’s becoming increasingly clear that ‘Partygate’ was significantly overplayed, and those who relentlessly accused him of lying to parliament regarding his own conduct owe him an apology.

Let’s wait until the Sue Gray report is released in full. Don’t forget, Priti et al hold power in the police, whether the police like it or not. Boris earning one FPN says, “I’m in it like everyone else, I’m human, we make mistakes”. I bet there was a LOT of back pedalling to ensure that BJ didn’t get the second.

 

[ainsworth74]

But not including new FPNs for Johnson (to my surprise, given the reporting to date). IMO it’s becoming increasingly clear that ‘Partygate’ was significantly overplayed, and those who relentlessly accused him of lying to parliament regarding his own conduct owe him an apology.

If 126 fines have been issued, including one for Johnson himself, how can the "rules have been followed at all times" which is what he told the House I believe?

 

[Cdd89]

If 126 fines have been issued, including one for Johnson himself, how can the "rules have been followed at all times" which is what he told the House I believe?

He was accused of having intentionally lied to parliament about his own compliance with the rules — given that he clearly (but mistakenly) believed he followed the rules in attending the “cake” incident (evidence: it was openly discussed at the time), and that he hasn’t received an FPN for any other events, I don’t see how any other conclusion is possible.

(For what it’s worth, I’ll freely agree things were all too casual - but that’s a different allegation, one of competence rather than criminality).

 

[Busaholic]

He was accused of having intentionally lied to parliament about his own compliance with the rules — given that he clearly (but mistakenly) believed he followed the rules in attending the “cake” incident (evidence: it was openly discussed at the time), and that he hasn’t received an FPN for any other events, I don’t see how any other conclusion is possible.

(For what it’s worth, I’ll freely agree things were all too casual - but that’s a different allegation, one of competence rather than criminality).

If Keir Starmer now gets fined by Durham police while Johnson escapes scot-free from any more fines it will show how party politicised the constabularies have become in England (they already are in Scotland, or, rather, the one police force is.)

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If Keir Starmer now gets fined by Durham police while Johnson escapes scot-free from any more fines it will show how party politicised the constabularies have become in England (they already are in Scotland, or, rather, the one police force is.)

What is the source that has revealed that Johnson did in fact attend more than one of these parties but that the police have refused to proceed under duress from certain quarters.

 

[Shrop]

But not including new FPNs for Johnson (to my surprise, given the reporting to date). IMO it’s becoming increasingly clear that ‘Partygate’ was significantly overplayed, and those who relentlessly accused him of lying to parliament regarding his own conduct owe him an apology.

"Partygate was significantly overplayed?" You're missing the point - perhaps deliberately. Many people were fined huge amounts, such as the landlord interviewed on News at Ten tonight, who was fined £4000, for a lesser offence than that committed by Boris, who was fined just £50. But the landlord didn't have virtually unlimited teams of people using weasel words to avoid his fine. Boris presides over this legal system, he introduced the laws which he then treated with utter contempt, and he has made no attempt to see others who were fined so much bigger amounts, have their fines reduced.
The point is the disgraceful disparity in enforcement. Until this is resolved and the law applied fairly and impartially, then Partygate is very significantly UNDERplayed.

 

[Busaholic]

What is the source that has revealed that Johnson did in fact attend more than one of these parties but that the police have refused to proceed under duress from certain quarters.

Take your pick. Who said ''duress'' by the way, other than you?

 

[Mag_seven]

A quick reminder that if anyone wants to discuss Brexit then there is a separate thread for this:

Brexit matters

I cannot find an open Brexit thread on the website so have opened this one for all and sundry to use.

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[jon0844]

I do wonder what the excuse will be for getting it so very wrong:

https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1527293385089789953?t=Vo_KlttoaMB9uvkmtfrCqQ&s=19

Some have pointed out (given that a large number of respondents are claimed to have been politically motivated) that even excluding those she didn't like it's still not great news:

Nadine just admitted to sharing her Netflix account and breaching the T&Cs, and then suggesting maybe she shouldn't be doing it. I wonder if she knows anything about anything to do with her role?

 

[alex397]

Nadine just admitted to sharing her Netflix account and breaching the T&Cs, and then suggesting maybe she shouldn't be doing it. I wonder if she knows anything about anything to do with her role?

The fact we have someone like her in such a prominent role in government is just a complete embarrassment. Perhaps she is there so the other ministers don’t look quite as bad?

 

[ainsworth74]

The fact we have someone like her in such a prominent role in government is just a complete embarrassment. Perhaps she is there so the other ministers don’t look quite as bad?

She's there because she's loyal to Boris and will do whatever he wants when he wants and even more importantly won't stab him in the back (or front). The fact that she's an embarrassment and completely incapable of doing the job is irrelevant. To be quite honest quite a lot of the current cabinet are picked on the same basis, she's just the clearest example of this trend.

 

[jon0844]

She's there because she's loyal to Boris and will do whatever he wants when he wants and even more importantly won't stab him in the back (or front). The fact that she's an embarrassment and completely incapable of doing the job is irrelevant. To be quite honest quite a lot of the current cabinet are picked on the same basis, she's just the clearest example of this trend.

If Boris is ever going to get involved in another scandal, I think I know who might be involved! Would bookies take a bet on that sort of thing?

 

[nw1]

From the Independent, for example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/fury-boris-johnson-partygate-fines-b2083085.html

"Downing Street staff who received fines for attending the same lockdown parties as Boris Johnson have reacted with fury after the prime minister escaped further sanctions on Thursday."

Sick to the back teeth at what this quote suggests is apparent protection of Johnson.

 

[dgl]

So Boris doesn't get fined whilst other guests are?
So was it an illegal gathering or not, it cannot be both as the police seem to see it at the moment.
Boris and his protection ring are really showing how corrupt this government is.

 

[Busaholic]

So Boris doesn't get fined whilst other guests are?
So was it an illegal gathering or not, it cannot be both as the police seem to see it at the moment.
Boris and his protection ring are really showing how corrupt this government is.

So when will we see a new member of the House of Lords in Lady Dick? (no further comment forthcoming from me on that title.) She'll sit as a crossbencher of course, but that won't fool anyone with a brain. Then a new Commissioner which you can be sure will not be the one that Sadiq Khan would appoint if he had the free hand of all the Police and Crime Commissioners elsewhere.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I remain utterly amazed by the way that civil servants at Downing Street in this sorry affair are totally exonerated of any blame by some implications on this thread with the view that at Downing Street, all blame goes to the "captain of the ship".

It is not at all similar to misbehaving children at a school being exonerated as any misdemeanours are the fault of the head teacher. These civil servants at Downing Street are of full adult status and are fully responsible for any actions they take.

 

[Shrop]

So after over 2500 posts on this thread, I believe we have the answer to the question of "When will it all go wrong for The Tories / Johnson". The answer is simply "It won't".
They have proved that it's possible to break the law with relative impunity (certainly when compared to others who committed lesser infringements of lockdown rules), and they've demonstrated that neither the police nor the press are capable of bringing them down. Why? Because there is no credible alternative and the majority of the public know this, which they demonstrate by not voting.
Our political system is broken. Seriously broken, and sadly it seems that the police enforcement system is broken too. I don't like getting old, but when our country is governed in this manner it does feel like a silver lining that I've lived through a time of better values and respect.
My alternative answer to the question of the OP is "42".

 

[dosxuk]

I remain utterly amazed by the way that civil servants at Downing Street in this sorry affair are totally exonerated of any blame by some implications on this thread with the view that at Downing Street, all blame goes to the "captain of the ship".

It is not at all similar to misbehaving children at a school being exonerated as any misdemeanours are the fault of the head teacher. These civil servants at Downing Street are of full adult status and are fully responsible for any actions they take.

If an entire school of children were misbehaving on a regular basis, we would be looking at the school management to know what they were doing about it. If they came back going "didn't know anything about it" we'd laugh and blame them instead of the kids.

Discipline, be that of children or adults, starts at the top. If those at the top are unable to have an effective process to manage the behaviour of those under them, then they are 100% part of the problem.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If an entire school of children were misbehaving on a regular basis, we would be looking at the school management to know what they were doing about it. If they came back going "didn't know anything about it" we'd laugh and blame them instead of the kids.

Discipline, be that of children or adults, starts at the top. If those at the top are unable to have an effective process to manage the behaviour of those under them, then they are 100% part of the problem.

So you can rest happy that civil servants of an adult age at Downing Street can behave in any fashion they wish in the sure knowledge that no blame would be laid at their particular doors, even when one of their particular numbers incurred no less than five FPN. It is at times like this I would like to hear what Sir Humphrey would say in terms of explanation.

Perhaps that being the case, in 1966 armed with my newly awarded First in Mathematics, I should not have made the move into industry and have made the civil service a career choice...

 

[MattRat]

If an entire school of children were misbehaving on a regular basis, we would be looking at the school management to know what they were doing about it. If they came back going "didn't know anything about it" we'd laugh and blame them instead of the kids.

Discipline, be that of children or adults, starts at the top. If those at the top are unable to have an effective process to manage the behaviour of those under them, then they are 100% part of the problem.

It's probably been happening for ages (breaking own rules), we just didn't know about it. And we only know about it because of Dominic Cummings.

I would say we should be thankful for his leaks, but it still feels weird to say.

 

[Cdd89]

I have sympathy for the junior civil servants issued PCNs. If the police actively investigated every workplace, plenty of breaches would be identified. For example, during Tier 2 (and old Tier 3), I noticed plenty of restaurant tables populated by co-workers who were clearly not discussing work, under the highly-challengeable “business meeting” loophole actively promoted by many restaurants.

It’s unfortunate that they got investigated retrospectively and in detail, while virtually no other workplace did. Some responsibility for their predicament should be borne by those pressuring the Met to conduct this investigation, in my view.

 

[dosxuk]

So you can rest happy that civil servants of an adult age at Downing Street can behave in any fashion they wish in the sure knowledge that no blame would be laid at their particular doors, even when one of their particular numbers incurred no less than five FPN

I know you're just trying your "it's not Boris" schtick, but just because the headmaster is partly responsible if his students are causing trouble it doesn't absolve them of any blame.

Nobody is calling for the civil service staff who have been fined to be let off because "it's Boris' fault". Most people are saying that with the level of law breaking now proven, there's no way Boris didn't know about it and as boss, he should take some of the blame because he failed to ensure his staff were operating within the law.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I know you're just trying your "it's not Boris" schtick, but just because the headmaster is partly responsible if his students are causing trouble it doesn't absolve them of any blame.

Nobody is calling for the civil service staff who have been fined to be let off because "it's Boris' fault". Most people are saying that with the level of law breaking now proven, there's no way Boris didn't know about it and as boss, he should take some of the blame because he failed to ensure his staff were operating within the law.

Do the civil service have someone in a position of high authority that oversees the conduct of civil service staff at Downing Street and other situations? I cannot believe that a Prime Minister with affairs of state as his remit to have time to monitor the employees of the civil service?

 

[GusB]

Do the civil service have someone in a position of high authority that oversees the conduct of civil service staff at Downing Street and other situations? I cannot believe that a Prime Minister with affairs of state as his remit to have time to monitor the employees of the civil service?

You invoked the name of Sir Humphrey, so you'll be well aware that it is the Cabinet Secretary who is the ultimate line manager for civil servants. That doesn't change the fact that Johnson lives and works at Number 10 and knew what was going on.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You invoked the name of Sir Humphrey, so you'll be well aware that it is the Cabinet Secretary who is the ultimate line manager for civil servants. That doesn't change the fact that Johnson lives and works at Number 10 and knew what was going on.

That may well be the case, but the ultimate responsibility for overlooking all such aspects concerning the conduct of civil service staff lies fairly and squarely on the shoulders of the Cabinet Secretary, whose responsibility is noted above by your good self.

 

[Busaholic]

I remain utterly amazed by the way that civil servants at Downing Street in this sorry affair are totally exonerated of any blame by some implications on this thread with the view that at Downing Street, all blame goes to the "captain of the ship".

It's (mostly) low level civil servants who have copped the fines and the blame while the buckpassers get exonerated. The lead story in today's Times ( hidden behind a paywall) is both about how those junior civll servants are incandescent that people higher up have escaped scot-free and how Sue Gray is frustrated and furious at the Met Police's refusal to provide her with basic information which would enable her to provide a more detailed report and conclusions.

Your (no doubt red) rose-tinted spectacles are obviously no longer fit for purpose as you can no longer see through them at all where your beloved Conservative Party is concerned.