Russia invades Ukraine

[Typhoon]

Interesting story in The Telegraph today about restaurants adding "donations for Ukraine" to people's bills automatically, and getting a bit stroppy if people ask for the donation to be removed.

I don't want to appear like Ebenezer Scrooge, but it should be for individuals to decide when and how much they donate to helping people in Ukraine, or any other charitable cause for that matter.

I would strongly object to what amounts to emotional blackmail.

You're not been Scrooge IMO I have very much the same opinion - I've done a few donations personally and also been rounding up my bill on occasion when asked - but that's far enough. I don't need to be coerced into donating and if i feel that way I'll naturally withdraw.

It's a tad disrespectful to assume people have the money to donate anyway regardless of stance, and it's rude to ask/assume.

They also assume that there is one 'donation for Ukraine' charity. Their donations go to Unicef, there are several others, including ones that the diner may already support and be supporting. I have no problem with them asking but that is as far as it goes. There may also be an adverse effect on people's sympathy towards Ukraine and Ukrainians if this sort of practice spreads widely (I note that I am being asked to 'round up' my spend in some supermarkets).

 

[Bantamzen]

Another interesting takeaway from today: the Chinese are getting irritated. We're starting to see state-controlled Chinese media in the West talk about Russian crimes, Lavrov's plane returned randomly without actually going to China, and the Chinese are getting very vocal about their lack of support for Russia. Could we be seeing China move in line with the West due to the harm that the war is doing to the Chinese economy?

It is equally reassuring and worrying that China might be the key to dialling Putin back. On one hand, having another major player turning against him might actually make him think twice, what with having opposition along both western and south eastern borders. He'll know that any escalation in Asia will stretch his resources too thinly to provide an effective deterrent. However China being big enough to bully Russia gives them more impetus to strengthen their own ambitions, starting with Taiwan.

It is dangerous of people on social media to spread rumours of nuclear weapons, a hoax could easily be made up and put into the wrong hands which could cause mass panic.

It is indeed possible that an internet hoax could seed panic, but you can't expect people not to at least think of a nuclear possibility, no matter how unlikely it still is. We are entering a new cold war, and those of us that remember it will also remember the fear levels that existed. The potential of being vaporised into atoms was never very far from people's minds, and the same will be true now. We can only hope that rumours of Putin's bunker run mean that high ranking officials inside the Russian military are starting to move against him, with a view to his, erm removal from office.

 

[dakta]

Probably warrants a thread on it's own but I'm not a fan at all of donations by demand - as in those prompts you get on automated tills to round up, mcdonalds do it too on their self service machines and so forth, though particularly recently I have actually started going with it because it saves a bit of time and I do actually support the cause - though I don't like being prompted.

I'm a bit old fashioned like that, as a working class guy who like the rest of the world has their fair share of problems theres just something about someone saying 'hey do you want to pay a bit more, youd be helping a great cause!' that seems a bit unsolicited.

I also have a similar opinion of 'suggested donations'. I appreciate the reasoning but it can be a proper putoff especially when they are set at daft levels. Ah well, rant over when I do support a cause I will generally support the cause without prompting - but there shouldn't be terms on how I support i.e minimum donations or whatever, as a mere human giving now and then what one has to spare I don't want to hear terms or pressure or anything like that.

 

[TheEdge]

Not to mention that it takes time to train soldiers.

Not under Russian conscript doctrine it doesn't.

 

[dgl]

Breaking news that Russia Today/RT has had it's licence to broadcast in the UK revoked by Ofcom as "We do not consider RT's licensee, ANO TV Novosti, fit and proper to hold a UK broadcast licence," it explained.
It's already gone off the air for Freesat/Freeview as the programme feed is done by SES Astra in Luxembourg nd EU sanctions mean tehy are not allowed to carry it.

Russia Today: News channel RT's UK licence revoked by Ofcom

Russian state-backed news channel RT's licence to broadcast in UK is revoked "with immediate effect".

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian state-backed news channel RT has had its licence to broadcast in the UK revoked "with immediate effect", media regulator Ofcom has said.
"We do not consider RT's licensee, ANO TV Novosti, fit and proper to hold a UK broadcast licence," it explained.
Ofcom is carrying out 29 investigations "into the due impartiality of RT's news and current affairs coverage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine".
The channel had already disappeared from all broadcast platforms in the UK.
It was removed earlier this month as a result of a ban imposed by the European Union.
Although the UK is no longer in the EU, the bloc applied sanctions to satellite companies in Luxembourg and France, which provided the RT feed to Sky, Freesat and Freeview in the UK.

 

[Yew]

Breaking news that Russia Today/RT has had it's licence to broadcast in the UK revoked by Ofcom as "We do not consider RT's licensee, ANO TV Novosti, fit and proper to hold a UK broadcast licence," it explained.
It's already gone off the air for Freesat/Freeview as the programme feed is done by SES Astra in Luxembourg nd EU sanctions mean tehy are not allowed to carry it.

Russia Today: News channel RT's UK licence revoked by Ofcom

Russian state-backed news channel RT's licence to broadcast in UK is revoked "with immediate effect".

www.bbc.co.uk

I'm not a fan of that, no doubt Putin will scream "western anti-russian censorship" whilst blocking access to more news sites that don't toe his party line.

 

[Giugiaro]

I'm not a fan of that, no doubt Putin will scream "western anti-russian censorship" whilst blocking access to more news sites that don't toe his party line.

Yes. We also want to know first hand what b**** is being fed to the Russian people.

However China being big enough to bully Russia gives them more impetus to strengthen their own ambitions, starting with Taiwan.

Taiwan's situation is different from that of Ukraine. As much as it pains me to say it, Taiwan is a part of China that is controlled by a "rebel government".
(We used to say the opposite until 1971.)
Given this is a domestic issue, the CCP taking military action to retake Taiwan is just a matter of when, not of if.

Now, it should be important to remember that China could've taken advantage of Putin's stampede into Ukraine to attack Taiwan at the same time.
After all, what better way to cause major panic on the Western community than by creating a war in two distinct fronts?

Since China hasn't done that (yet), It raises the question as to how much the Ukraine situation is, and isn't, in China's best interest.
Especially after Putin has added Taiwan to the list of unfriendly "countries".

Ouch...

 

[TheEdge]

Since China hasn't done that (yet), It raises the question as to how much the Ukraine situation is, and isn't, in China's best interest.

China has had a very stark demonstration that there is line in the sand and invading a (de facto, let's magic hand wave that issue away for this points purpose) independent state will see you widely sanctioned into oblivion by the West, quickly.

And that is probably a risk the Chinese won't want to take over Taiwan.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Yes. We also want to know first hand what b**** is being fed to the Russian people.


Taiwan's situation is different from that of Ukraine. As much as it pains me to say it, Taiwan is a part of China that is controlled by a "rebel government".
(We used to say the opposite until 1971.)
Given this is a domestic issue, the CCP taking military action to retake Taiwan is just a matter of when, not of if.

Now, it should be important to remember that China could've taken advantage of Putin's stampede into Ukraine to attack Taiwan at the same time.
After all, what better way to cause major panic on the Western community than by creating a war in two distinct fronts?

Since China hasn't done that (yet), It raises the question as to how much the Ukraine situation is, and isn't, in China's best interest.
Especially after Putin has added Taiwan to the list of unfriendly "countries".

Ouch...

That's his social credit score down the drain then.

 

[Cloud Strife]

China has had a very stark demonstration that there is line in the sand and invading a (de facto, let's magic hand wave that issue away for this points purpose) independent state will see you widely sanctioned into oblivion by the West, quickly.

And that is probably a risk the Chinese won't want to take over Taiwan.

It's not even about the sanctions, but about the fact that Ukraine has proven just how difficult it is to invade and hold territory. If Taiwan can organise territorial defences equipped with RPGs and Javelin-style weapons, then any invasion is going to be an absolute bloodbath and very difficult to execute effectively.

Since China hasn't done that (yet), It raises the question as to how much the Ukraine situation is, and isn't, in China's best interest.

It's very much not in the Chinese interest. It's causing Europe to look locally, which is exactly what the Chinese don't want to happen. They need Russian raw materials, but they also need Europe to keep ordering from China. If Europe (and the US) decide that it's worth paying more in order to reduce dependency on states like Russia, then China also gets hurt.

 

[oldman]

Yes. We also want to know first hand what b**** is being fed to the Russian people.

RT is still on the internet. We don't need to allow them to use our broadcasting infrastructure. And we don't imprison people for repeating what they read on RT.

 

[brad465]

Anyone who hasn't already seen Arnold Schwarzenegger's viral speech yet should do so:

https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I love the Russian people. That is why I have to tell you the truth. Please watch and share.

 

[Chingy]

Putin doing his own version of "Schwarzenegger's" speech now;

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971?t=pu6WolUMPFJvpORP13YOMg&s=19

Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation. Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground.

It's worth opening the link and reading the whole thread to get a grasp on what is happening in Moscow right now.

Kinda reminds you of North Korea in recent years.

 

[zero]

Taiwan's situation is different from that of Ukraine. As much as it pains me to say it, Taiwan is a part of China that is controlled by a "rebel government".
(We used to say the opposite until 1971.)
Given this is a domestic issue, the CCP taking military action to retake Taiwan is just a matter of when, not of if.

If the CCP invaded and defeated Taiwan, they would not be retaking it but taking it for the first time.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Putin doing his own version of "Schwarzenegger's" speech now;

It's just all very strange. Putin is alone again, and it's starting to look like he's really losing grasp of reality with all these public appearances where everyone else is far, far away from him.

 

[brad465]

Putin is certainly doing a good job of rewriting Godwin's law.

 

[DustyBin]

By chance I just stumbled across a Russian military TU-154 over the Black Sea having departed from Moscow (on flightradar24 in case you're wondering!). It suddenly disappeared (whilst right beneath a USAF Global Hawk strangely) but it looked to have been heading for Romania or Bulgaria based on it's trajectory. One wonders whether it's on a diplomatic mission or is doing a runner!

I'm only a casual aviation enthusiast and only recently discovered flightradar24 but it's interesting seeing what's up there (that they want us to see). Does anybody else use it? If so I'll start a dedicated thread for aircraft movements related to the conflict (or just generally if there's enough interest).

 

[dakta]

Yeah I use it but downside is you'll never see anything of interest for obvious reasons

 

[yorksrob]

I see that Russia is demanding "de-millitarisation" of Ukraine as one of its negotiating demands. It's ironic, given that every gun and missile in Western Europe is going to be pointed directly at Russia going forward. Quite right too. The country can't be trusted.

 

[Scotrail314209]

At least things are starting to look slightly positive on the peace talk front. It does look like Ukraine will concede to not join NATO as well as neutrality.

 

[AlterEgo]

Meanwhile China has been the mollifying influence. China has refused to condemn the invasion outright but is probably concerned about a global economic slowdown as a result of it. We aren’t top dog any more and we don’t get to call all of the shots.

 

[yorksrob]

Meanwhile China has been the mollifying influence. China has refused to condemn the invasion outright but is probably concerned about a global economic slowdown as a result of it. We aren’t top dog any more and we don’t get to call all of the shots.

China would have preferred not to have had to mollify. It would have preferred a swift and effective Russian assertion of the principle of "spheres of influence". More handy for the South China Sea.

 

[AlterEgo]

China would have preferred not to have had to mollify. It would have preferred a swift and effective Russian assertion of the principle of "spheres of influence". More handy for the South China Sea.

China will take that anyway eventually.

 

[yorksrob]

China will take that anyway eventually.

The key thing is that we keep the authoritarian influence out of the West, and that means keeping Russia confined. Europe has learnt a lesson that won't be forgotten for a while.

 

[brad465]

At least things are starting to look slightly positive on the peace talk front. It does look like Ukraine will concede to not join NATO as well as neutrality.

I'm not convinced, particularly after Putin's stadium rally today. I also think any peace deal that is signed while Putin is in charge should be taken with a pinch of salt, given how untrustworthy he seems to be, and may even be comparable to Munich 1938 if the deal meant ceding some key Ukrainian territory, and then giving Putin time to recover and strengthen his army to go back a year or two later.

 

[AlterEgo]

The key thing is that we keep the authoritarian influence out of the West, and that means keeping Russia confined. Europe has learnt a lesson that won't be forgotten for a while.

European security is partially guaranteed by the United States. However, if Asia starts kicking off, you’ll soon find the Americans find Europe much further down the agenda.

Confinement of Russia has been a significant contributor to the current crisis.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It does look like Ukraine will concede to not join NATO as well as neutrality.

I suspect it will be rather like Finnish neutrality, where they pretend to be officially neutral while actually doing a huge amount in cooperation with NATO forces.

Right now, I find it intriguing and fascinating as to how cyberwarfare has played such a little role so far. We all expected hackers worldwide to queue up for a free shot at Russia, but it seems that the initial excitement has heavily died down once it became clear that the Russian defences were holding against online attacks.

On a sombre note, I have the distinct feeling that the Russian tactics are, ultimately, working. Mariupol is likely to fall in the next few hours, which means that the tactic of bombarding a city for two/three weeks and then invading is effective. While some observers think that Mariupol has been intentionally left to suffer in this way for PR purposes, it seems clear now that Russia has the firepower to lay waste to Kharkiv, Odesa and other cities in the same way.

On the flip side, Ukraine won't surrender. We might be facing only the beginning of an humanitarian disaster.

 

[DustyBin]

I'm not convinced, particularly after Putin's stadium rally today. I also think any peace deal that is signed while Putin is in charge should be taken with a pinch of salt, given how untrustworthy he seems to be, and may even be comparable to Munich 1938 if the deal meant ceding some key Ukrainian territory, and then giving Putin time to recover and strengthen his army to go back a year or two later.

Who knows…… The rally was absolutely bizarre I really don’t know what, if anything, to read into it. What is certain is that Putin absolutely cannot be trusted, and as such Ukraine must be able to defend itself against future Russian aggression. Any “demilitarisation” must not affect this ability. In fact, I expect Ukraine’s military to rapidly become the strongest it’s ever been, at least in defensive capabilities, after this invasion. I’m not even sure the Polish MiG-29s will materialise; they may well receive some relatively modern F-16s or similar instead.

 

[yorksrob]

European security is partially guaranteed by the United States. However, if Asia starts kicking off, you’ll soon find the Americans find Europe much further down the agenda.

Confinement of Russia has been a significant contributor to the current crisis.

"Asia kicking off" which bit of Asia is that in particular ? We know the USA and China aren't best of buddies, but how imminent is it that they (or anyone else in Asia) will "kick off" ?

Even if they do, (assuming they wanted to) are they necessarily going to do it at the same time as Russia ? Now Europe is beginning to learn responsibility for its own defence more widely (something that the UK and France have always had responsibility for anyway).

As for your sob stories about the confinement of Russia, it has had ample access to the economies and societies of the West for the past thirty years, something it is beginning to notice now that that access is being restricted.

 

[Bevan Price]

Who knows…… The rally was absolutely bizarre I really don’t know what, if anything, to read into it. What is certain is that Putin absolutely cannot be trusted, and as such Ukraine must be able to defend itself against future Russian aggression. Any “demilitarisation” must not affect this ability. In fact, I expect Ukraine’s military to rapidly become the strongest it’s ever been, at least in defensive capabilities, after this invasion. I’m not even sure the Polish MiG-29s will materialise; they may well receive some relatively modern F-16s or similar instead.

He is turning into Vladimir Hitler, with events like that tyrant's rallies, and much of the audience "encouraged" to attend (as reported on today's news).