Russia invades Ukraine

[dakta]

That I think is where it's going to go, but I don't fancy being sat around the perimeter either because you've to watch your front and your back

Hunch is it's a time thing, if Ukraine can hold out Russia's bust nose is just going to flow and flow (at home and on the battlefield), but there will be a civilian cost

 

[MattRat]

That I think is where it's going to go, but I don't fancy being sat around the perimeter either because you've to watch your front and your back

Hunch is it's a time thing, if Ukraine can hold out Russia's bust nose is just going to flow and flow (at home and on the battlefield), but there will be a civilian cost

Well if they advance from the south from Crimea, using the river as a barrier, they could encircle the east side of the country, and then just mop up Kyiv last. Pure speculation though.

 

[dakta]

to be fair I'm not sure if they'd have an army by that point!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I've read one account that Kyiv is now fortified to the point where there's absolutely no way that the Russians are getting in. People are armed to the teeth with Molotov cocktails and other weapons, and it's now painfully obvious that the Russian forces are facing literal hell on earth if they try and come in.

The Russian strategy appears to be that they want to slowly encircle the city, and then bombard it in the same way as they're doing to Mariupol. But how many losses can the Russians take? If they try the Mariupol tactic with Kyiv, then they're just going to open themselves up to countless attacks from the rear with Western-supplied hardware. In a way, laying siege to Kyiv will actually force them to commit huge amounts of resources to a siege where they will be sitting ducks.

IMO, we in the West also need to hit them with further sanctions. Putting a stop to truck traffic across the EU-Russia/Belarusian border would be a nice start...

It has crossed my mind to wonder whether the actual strategy is to make the Ukrainians think they are about to launch an assault on Kyiv, thus tying up enough Ukrainian forces defending the capital to let the Russians make more progress in the South. Although that would require the Russian planners to display a level of intelligence that they so far seem to have lacked, so hopefully not.

 

[najaB]

It has crossed my mind to wonder whether the actual strategy is to make the Ukrainians think they are about to launch an assault on Kyiv, thus tying up enough Ukrainian forces defending the capital to let the Russians make more progress in the South.

I doubt those are inflatable tanks, so it does mean tying up a lot of men and materiel in the feint.

 

[Strathclyder]

When the Daily Mail in effect join in the campaign to bring in more refugees, you know something's up:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

View attachment 111267

Either get her act together or step down. If it somehow wasn't painfully obvious before, it is now: she is woefully unsuitable for the job. Like I said in a previous post, not a shred of compassion or empathy to be found there.

 

[Bluejays]

I've read one account that Kyiv is now fortified to the point where there's absolutely no way that the Russians are getting in. People are armed to the teeth with Molotov cocktails and other weapons, and it's now painfully obvious that the Russian forces are facing literal hell on earth if they try and come in.

The Russian strategy appears to be that they want to slowly encircle the city, and then bombard it in the same way as they're doing to Mariupol. But how many losses can the Russians take? If they try the Mariupol tactic with Kyiv, then they're just going to open themselves up to countless attacks from the rear with Western-supplied hardware. In a way, laying siege to Kyiv will actually force them to commit huge amounts of resources to a siege where they will be sitting ducks.

IMO, we in the West also need to hit them with further sanctions. Putting a stop to truck traffic across the EU-Russia/Belarusian border would be a nice start...

I think the option of taking Ukraine and controlling it disappeared after day 3 or 4. Unfortunately, I do wonder if Putin would be perfectly comfortable losing 20k Russians and flattening the city.

 

[takno]

I doubt those are inflatable tanks, so it does mean tying up a lot of men and materiel in the feint.

The Russians appear to own an awful lot of equipment which is in the category of "fine unless you try to fire it, steer it or propel it through mud", so tying some of that up in a convoy to Kyiv is no great loss. On the other hand they really aren't good enough at planning for this.

 

[Yew]

I doubt those are inflatable tanks, so it does mean tying up a lot of men and materiel in the feint.

Perhaps not, but Russia does have a lot of old equipment lying around, perhaps that could explain the reliability issues we've seen in the Great Column - old tanks pulled out of scrapyards to look formidable, whilst the new equipment is actually working in the south.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Mar 2022 ==

On the other hand they really aren't good enough at planning for this.

Indeed, given that the T72 has been in production for about 50 years I can see how they could lose track of things that work, and things that don't.

 

[TheEdge]

Perhaps not, but Russia does have a lot of old equipment lying around, perhaps that could explain the reliability issues we've seen in the Great Column - old tanks pulled out of scrapyards to look formidable, whilst the new equipment is actually working in the south.

They either have ex-Soviet equipment that's been extensively modernised (or not in some cases) or some very modern kit. But un Ukraine we just don't seem to have seen any of the oft touted modern kit. I don't think there has been any use of any of the Armata series vehicles seen, we've seen sone Pantsir AA systems but they've been abandoned as readily as anything else. We've also not seen any of the BMPT Terminator vehicles which would really seem to be exactly what the infantry need to have.

 

[Yew]

They either have ex-Soviet equipment that's been extensively modernised (or not in some cases) or some very modern kit. But un Ukraine we just don't seem to have seen any of the oft touted modern kit. I don't think there has been any use of any of the Armata series vehicles seen, we've seen sone Pantsir AA systems but they've been abandoned as readily as anything else. We've also not seen any of the BMPT Terminator vehicles which would really seem to be exactly what the infantry need to have.

Equally, where numbers are available, it seems like the production runs are extremely small.

 

[TheEdge]

Indeed, given that the T72 has been in production for about 50 years I can see how they could lose track of things that work, and things that don't.

But there is evidence that stuff just hasn't been touched or had the most basic of maintenance. Going back to the Pantsir they've been throwing their tires off and it really looks like they've been parked up, not moved or maintained and the tires have either perished or developed flatspots.

 

[brad465]

Looks like China are starting to distance themselves from Russia further, whether willingly or forced by sanctions elsewhere:

Russia says China refuses to supply aircraft parts after sanctions

China has refused to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts, an official at Russia's aviation authority was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying on Thursday, after Boeing and Airbus halted supply of components.

www.reuters.com

March 10 (Reuters) - China has refused to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts, an official at Russia's aviation authority was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying on Thursday, after Boeing (BA.N) and Airbus (AIR.PA) halted supply of components.

 

[Yew]

But there is evidence that stuff just hasn't been touched or had the most basic of maintenance. Going back to the Pantsir they've been throwing their tires off and it really looks like they've been parked up, not moved or maintained and the tires have either perished or developed flatspots.

Indeed, I think there's a lot of stuff used that was on the books, but realistically had been sitting outside in a yard for a decade or two with minimal maintenance. x

It might've been good enough for "Military exercises", and probably could have been made ready for war; but that might have compromised operational secrecy.

As an aside, an old lecturer of mine used to be an RAF engineer, and spent a time decommissioning old aircraft that were on the books; they couldn't get them out for the trees that had grown since they were parked.

 

[brad465]

Next up in the list of evidence that things are not going well for Putin:

Ukraine war: Putin seeks foreign volunteers to fight in Ukraine

"We need to give them what they want and help them get to the conflict zone," the Russian leader said.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for foreign volunteers to be able to fight against Ukrainian forces.
Speaking at a Russian security council meeting, he said those who wanted to volunteer to fight with Russia-backed forces should be allowed to.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East ready to fight alongside Russia-backed forces.
US officials said these could include Syrians skilled in urban combat.
Moscow is a long-standing ally of Syria and Mr Putin has been a key backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country's civil war.
"If you see that there are these people who want of their own accord, not for money, to come to help the people living in Donbas, then we need to give them what they want and help them get to the conflict zone," Mr Putin told his defence minister.
Mr Shoigu also proposed handing over captured Western anti-tank missile systems to Russian-backed rebel fighters in the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region.
"Please do this," Mr Putin said.

The televised security council meeting move came as Russian forces in Ukraine began attacking new targets in different areas of the country:

• An airfield and jet engine factory were targeted in Lutsk, in the north-west
• Explosions also hit airfields at Ivano-Frankivsk, in the south-west, according to Russian defence officials
• In Dnipro, a major stronghold in central eastern Ukraine, one person was reported dead in air strikes
• The fighting is driving increasing numbers of people to flee the country, with refugees now totalling 2.5 million

According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials have told the paper that Russia has recently been recruiting fighters from Syria, hoping their expertise in urban warfare can help take Kyiv and deal a devastating blow to the Ukraine government.
At the same time, US private security firms have been seeking to recruit former soldiers to help evacuate people from Ukraine.
Foreign fighters, including former and current British army personnel, have also been arriving in Ukraine to fight for the government in Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said recently that 16,000 foreigners had volunteered for the cause, part of what he called an "international legion".

 

[MattRat]

Next up in the list of evidence that things are not going well for Putin:

Ukraine war: Putin seeks foreign volunteers to fight in Ukraine

"We need to give them what they want and help them get to the conflict zone," the Russian leader said.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's interesting he mentions it's to help Donbass, not help Russia or help defeat Ukraine. It sounds like spinning the narrative, but why would he need to do that for his own generals?

 

[TheEdge]

It's interesting he mentions it's to help Donbass, not help Russia or help defeat Ukraine. It sounds like spinning the narrative, but why would he need to do that for his own generals?

All part of the show? Or perhaps his army is starting to find fighting a competent enemy isn't as fun as helping the Syrians drop barrel bombs on civilians.

 

[takno]

It's interesting he mentions it's to help Donbass, not help Russia or help defeat Ukraine. It sounds like spinning the narrative, but why would he need to do that for his own generals?

It's a televised show-meeting. Nothing happening in it is for the consumption of the participants

 

[GS250]

All part of the show? Or perhaps his army is starting to find fighting a competent enemy isn't as fun as helping the Syrians drop barrel bombs on civilians.

Absolutely right. Ukraine were never going to be a pushover. The media appeared to portray Ukraine as militarily vulnerable nation who were going to get absolutely battered within a few days. Those of us who maybe did a little research realised that they have plenty of useful kit and a very motivated armed force/civilians. Just a shame for Ukraine, that they don't appear to have the ability to fire back into Russia. That may have given the Russians something to think about. Although naturally Russian State Media would dress it up as an isolated act of aggression.

 

[midland1]

If the Russians are looking for foreign volunteers to fight looks like they are already running out of worthwhile troops.

 

[Busaholic]

If the Russians are looking for foreign volunteers to fight looks like they are already running out of worthwhile troops.

Couldn't Gorgeous George Galloway be oersuaded to put his body where his mouth is? There'd be many anxious to take the first potshot at him!

 

[GusB]

Couldn't Gorgeous George Galloway be oersuaded to put his body where his mouth is? There'd be many anxious to take the first potshot at him!

He wouldn't need to travel that far..

 

[brad465]

There are reports circulating that Russia has attacked a village in Belarus in an attempted false flag operation, which presumably is aimed to get Belarus more involved in the war. From what I've seen Belarussian military commanders have been against getting its army involved, so maybe this is an attempt to change their mind.

 

[Adlington]

Flat wagons recalled to prevent use in invasion of Ukraine

Lithuania’s national freight operator LTG Cargo has stopped the leasing of its flat wagons and banned their transport to Russia or Belarus, out of concern that the governments could nationalise them and use them for military purposes as part of the invasion of Ukraine.

LTG Cargo said 325 of its flat wagons were in Russia and Belarus, and called for them to be returned

Source
A purely symbolic action, IMHO...

 

[Iskra]

Absolutely right. Ukraine were never going to be a pushover. The media appeared to portray Ukraine as militarily vulnerable nation who were going to get absolutely battered within a few days. Those of us who maybe did a little research realised that they have plenty of useful kit and a very motivated armed force/civilians. Just a shame for Ukraine, that they don't appear to have the ability to fire back into Russia. That may have given the Russians something to think about. Although naturally Russian State Media would dress it up as an isolated act of aggression.

This has already happened, the Milerovo air base was attacked early in the conflict. The Ukrainians don't have much more to lose from such attacks.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Mar 2022 ==

If the Russians are looking for foreign volunteers to fight looks like they are already running out of worthwhile troops.

You have to question why any volunteer would want to go, considering they probably don't have the same level of Russian state propaganda inundating them and can see the horrors of the situation themselves. Is it possibly just Putin's face-saving, righteously grandiose-looking response to foreign fighters choosing to fight for Ukraine?

Edit, I've just seen some video footage of these volunteers and I conclude that it is nothing more than a propaganda stunt, as it was simply what looked like the Syrian Army with some Russian flags. I doubt many, if any, will ever see Donbass.

 

[Loppylugs]

So what's the next lie? Probably drop chemicals in and then claim they've hit a hidden American warehouse full of the stuff.

 

[Cowley]

So what's the next lie? Probably drop chemicals in and then claim they've hit a hidden American warehouse full of the stuff.

I think that is the worry actually.

 

[GusB]

This all sounds really far-fetched - or at least it would if it wasn't all so horribly real.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There are reports circulating that Russia has attacked a village in Belarus in an attempted false flag operation, which presumably is aimed to get Belarus more involved in the war. From what I've seen Belarussian military commanders have been against getting its army involved, so maybe this is an attempt to change their mind.

I don't get the logic of that. If the reports are true, and assuming the Belarusian military commanders aren't complete idiots, surely there's no way that they'd fail to twig that it was the Russians not the Ukrainians, attacking. And if anything that would make them even more disinclined to get involved on Russia's side.

 

[Darandio]

I don't get the logic of that. If the reports are true, and assuming the Belarusian military commanders aren't complete idiots, surely there's no way that they'd fail to twig that it was the Russians not the Ukrainians, attacking. And if anything that would make them even more disinclined to get involved on Russia's side.

It isn't designed to fool the Belarusian commanders or Belarus as a country, they would have known in advance. The whole point is to try and fool the rest of the world in order to provide justification for Belarus joining the invasion.