Potential DfT/ORR Consultation On Diversionary Routes/Rail Replacement Bus Services?

[The Planner]

Well if it isn't true that Schedule 4 and the Access Charge Supplement are (currently intended to be) balanced, why have the ORR already consulted on the future of the arrangements as part of the current Periodic Review in the light of a possible totally different industry structure and positioning of revenue and cost risk under GBR?

I am well aware that the impact of covid on revenue, changed timetable patterns, the recent switch to more blockades and so on means that the payments have been well out of anticipated kilter recently.

It has been on the TOC side for a number of years. I am aware of the ORR consultation, I doubt a lot will change.

 

[tbtc]

I struggle to believe that anyone in the rail industry (let alone SRA, DfT, Treasury or whoever) would have suddenly decided: "Got a brilliant idea! Lets ditch nice, cheap Thunderbirds (that also happen to provide a more convenient service for passengers) and instead switch to expensive, inconvenient and 'uncertain' RRBs."

Do you have any idea of who could have forced such a perverse policy through?

The word you missed there was "unreliable"

If the Thunderbirds had coupled up to 390s reliably then they'd still be dragging them to Holyhead (and we'd have more Voyagers available for busy XC services rather than having to use them for WCML services from London to Crewe, best part of a couple of hundred miles under the wires

But even if the Thunderbirds could be trusted to haul Pendolini around, you're looking at around three hours from Carlisle to Preston via the S&C - e.g. https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:U63701/2022-02-26/detailed - noting that this train was pathed with a couple of dwells, but then there's no guarantee that a diverted service passenger would get first dibs at paths without at least some compromise/ getting stuck behind passenger services etc - plus you'd need to allow time for the 57 to couple to the 390 at one end and decouple at the other)

But, assuming that the Glasgow - Carlisle arrival and Preston departure for places further south match up and that you can couple/uncouple within the short period that the trains are dwelling at those cities, that's still a six hour duration for the round journeys between Carlisle and Preston - compared to around two hours for the direct journey via Lancaster

With two Avanti services per hour plus one TPE per hour, that's six trains normally in use between Carlisle and Preston, but you now need eighteen trains to maintain that level of service - i.e. twelve trains more

Plus presumably you'll want some trains to run any unaffected parts of the WCML too - e.g. if the reason that the line is closed is Shap then you'll still need to maintain some services from Carlisle to Penrith, or Oxenholme to Preston, so the fact that these bits of line will still need a service means that the dozen additional units needed to maintain the service via the S&C will be getting closer to twenty - let's say sixteen?

Where are you going to take sixteen additional trains from, with similar seating capacity? Remembering that the Avanti trains will have to be able to keep to the existing paths elsewhere on the WCML, i.e. capable of running at 125mph which means being able to tilt

You could remove the Chester/ Holyhead services, but then does that mean that you are putting *those* passengers on buses instead?

And you'd need (say) sixteen class 57s, with drivers trained on the route? And more conductors for the Avanti/TPE services, given that more are required to maintain the same frequency

(if the answer is that "we don't need to run *all* of these services because I'm happy for other people to use replacement buses" then fair enough, but it feels like a lot of people on here are more focussed on getting to ride 125mph trains on rare track and scenic routes, without having to pay Charter rates)

 

[Tomnick]

I'm surprised that route knowledge lapses so quickly. I can think of roads which I used to drive regularly but haven't for at least 5 years, but, if had occasion to do so, I would still know them well. I would like to see independent research as to when route knowledge declines to a level which poses a significant risk.

As others have suggested, the depth of route knowledge that a train driver requires isn't at all comparable with the sort of knowledge that you might acquire by driving the same road regularly. For starters, you don't need to know the road to drive a car on it!

Just to clarify, though, we're not talking here about route knowledge completely lapsing and needing to be re-learnt from scratch. A day's refresher would probably do it - as you say, it's not going to go completely out of your head.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

Alert readers may call that Andrew Adonis won what he regarded as a major concession from the rail industry of the day (2009?) that more use would be made of diversionary routes for long distance trains and that RRBs would be much more the exception etc. etc. This followed the Calcutta cup debacle when Scotland was playing in England but both the WCML and ECML were .. er .... closed for engineering work that weekend (work didn't have the additional adjective 'scheduled' back that long ago!). It was put down to 'someone forgot to look at the special events calendar', although that was an Apple Green or a Maroon person was never very clear.

Well, that was a grand plan wasn't it?

The issue here, I humbly submit to everyone looking at this thread, is not about what the policy should be but about how it will enforced (HINT: there doesn't seem to be any at the moment). Like many things on the railway, unless there is a very clear enforcement route what sounds like a 'commitment' soon gets watered down as a result of practical operational issues and also scrutiny by the FD/the finance side of DfT.

In practice it does seem often to be cheaper and easier to RRB than keep some routes open at weekends and the maths on this aren't going to be changing in hurry. Better perhaps to put even more emphasis on informing travellers in advance and perhaps adding in LARGE FONT in all publicity/journey planners "There will be extensive engineering work this weekend on this line which is likely to delay your journey very considerably and require you to transfer to buses for part of it. We'll help you to do this as much as we can but we do recommend that you consider going another day or another way." Journey Planners will tell you if there is an RRB but you do have to squint at them a bit to see that, typically.

Me, if I see even a hint of an RRB, I'm going another way or not travelling at all. Too many bad experiences, I am afraid!

 

[AlastairFraser]

RRBs are covered by compensation payments. Thunderbirds aren't. If they aren't paid to do it, they don't do it.

Why aren't they covered by compensation payments? Are they just banking on the fact most people won't bother with Delay Repay on a longer journey using a RRB, as opposed to a rail diversion?

 

[30907]

Why aren't they covered by compensation payments? Are they just banking on the fact most people won't bother with Delay Repay on a longer journey using a RRB, as opposed to a rail diversion?

This is internal industry compensation, not Delay Repay (which doesn't cover planned engineering works).

 

[AlastairFraser]

This is internal industry compensation, not Delay Repay (which doesn't cover planned engineering works).

I know it's Schedule 4 we're talking about here, it's just useful for the Thunderbirds to be there when some unplanned disruption like the roof needing inspection in Preston happens, closing the station the other day. There they can at least partially avoid issues with Delay Repay, even if industry compensation is not accounted for.

 

[Class 170101]

If people are expecting Avanti to go via the S&C then it will have trade offs. To use the 805/7s then North Wales, Birmingham and the second Liverpool (which doesn't have rights yet) will all get culled on the day to facilitate it.

North Wales Coast would have to be a change at Crewe (and no way of getting around that) though see comments in WCML thread about missed connections during covid. Liverpool I disagree with you as that may be able to be covered by displaced Pendolinos

, Chiltern have mooted that they would accept New St with conductors if needed in the past but its never got that far. GWR have done the Chilterns in the past and so on.

Not sure that Class 800s / 802s are route cleared via Chilterns unlike HSTs and I don't think they are cleared to Waterloo either. Chiltern also doesn't serve Paddington anymore since closure of the Park Royal route though via South Greenford might be an option, route learning or TOC co-operation permitted

 

[The Planner]

North Wales Coast would have to be a change at Crewe (and no way of getting around that) though see comments in WCML thread about missed connections during covid. Liverpool I disagree with you as that may be able to be covered by displaced Pendolinos


Not sure that Class 800s / 802s are route cleared via Chilterns unlike HSTs and I don't think they are cleared to Waterloo either. Chiltern also doesn't serve Paddington anymore since closure of the Park Royal route though via South Greenford might be an option, route learning or TOC co-operation permitted

Hence why I said the past. If the will was there they would soon get cleared. Chiltern only ever had contingent rights into Paddington.

 

[Bletchleyite]

North Wales Coast would have to be a change at Crewe (and no way of getting around that) though see comments in WCML thread about missed connections during covid. Liverpool I disagree with you as that may be able to be covered by displaced Pendolinos

This is exactly what VT did in order to do diesel diversions in the past.

 

[Whistler40145]

This is exactly what VT did in order to do diesel diversions in the past.

Alternative services would be available with Transport for Wales along the North Wales Coast

 

[Kite159]

Interestingly XC next Sunday has changed their timetable from running services from New Street towards Derby nonstop via Leicester due to a block between Derby & Burton to running mostly replacement buses nonstop to Derby.

 

[Whistler40145]

Interestingly XC next Sunday has changed their timetable from running services from New Street towards Derby nonstop via Leicester due to a block between Derby & Burton to running mostly replacement buses nonstop to Derby.

I know today, XC are running buses from Birmingham New Street to Coleshill Parkway

 

[Kite159]

I know today, XC are running buses from Birmingham New Street to Coleshill Parkway

Also diverting via Lichfield for the long distance stuff.

 

[The Planner]

I know today, XC are running buses from Birmingham New Street to Coleshill Parkway

Have been for the last week. Will be doing it again in August as well.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2022 ==

Interestingly XC next Sunday has changed their timetable from running services from New Street towards Derby nonstop via Leicester due to a block between Derby & Burton to running mostly replacement buses nonstop to Derby.

Was it ever planned for them to go via Leicester? Not sure they bother with that now.

 

[Kite159]

Have been for the last week. Will be doing it again in August as well.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2022 ==


Was it ever planned for them to go via Leicester? Not sure they bother with that now.

Was showing on RTT earlier in the week as going via Leicester with XC quite happy to sell tickets with reservations for those services.

2 services remain which are going via Leicester (08:37 & 09:25)

Realtime Trains | Departures from Birmingham New Street all day on 06/03/2022

Train information at Birmingham New Street all day on 06/03/2022. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[Craig1122]

Me, if I see even a hint of an RRB, I'm going another way or not travelling at all. Too many bad experiences, I am afraid!

This! I'm surprised how many people commenting here seem to think RRB is a non issue for passengers. Several years of doing long distance bookings and passengers would actively avoid replacement buses wherever they could. By contrast I can't recall anyone deciding not to travel when a diversion meant a longer journey time by train.

The quality of RRB operations varies enormously. It's not just the quality of vehicle but also route knowledge of the drivers including where the actual stops are for smaller stations and levels of signage/assistance at stations. There's also the issue that when things go wrong or buses get stuck in traffic there's generally no real time information.

I've spent a few weekend days staffing RRB in the past and to provide a decent service you need to be really switched on as to what arrangements are in place and keeping track of what's actually happening. Unfortunately a lot of RRB staff at stations tend to be agency workers on minimum wage who lack the training and/or motivation to do this. So a lot of the time if it starts going wrong passengers will just be met with a shrug. A lot of the time at smaller stations you won't find any staff and the bus stop may be some distance away with inadequate signage. South Eastern tried to tackle this with fixed RRB bus stop signage for each station but most TOC's have not been so proactive.

Tfl provide signed routes for RRB's but the TOC's generally shrug their shoulders and say it's the bus operator's job to know. That's all very well but it frequently goes wrong when drivers get lost, I can recall being on one and the driver shouting 'does anyone know where the station is?'

So even where buses are unavoidable the rail industry could do a lot to improve the quality of the experience. If it was a little more consistent passengers might not even object to them quite so much!

 

[A0]

This is completely false; there have been numerous ECML diversions lately such as via Carlisle, Hartlepool, Garforth, and many more; there have been very few weekends lately without any diversions

But not all between Leeds and London necessitating a Cambridge diversion, which was the point.

 

[fishwomp]

Maybe that’s your experience but a sizeable number suffer sickness on trains,too, I witness it regularly as part of my work, not great but reality.

Generally the cause of travel sickness is the disconnect between what you are seeing and what your vestibular system (? am not a medical doctor..) is telling it. I read a book on the X5 once, and Milton Keynes darn near killed me: roundabouts everywhere (system says turning, eye says straight line). Similar on a ferry in a storm - never read a book..

As trains generally go in straight lines, am surprised you say it's regular: not sure what trains would cause travel sickness - roller coasters? the Circle line? Or the infamous bouncy-castle 142s? Sorry, in all seriousness - is this a local service you work with (potentially bouncy) or intercity (straight lines)?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2022 ==

I haven't seen anyone comment on the safety of RRBs yet (I may have missed it, this is a long thread now!).

Whilst coaches are still safer than most forms of transport on a per mile basis, they are not as safe as trains ( https://www.statista.com/statistics...according-to-transport-in-the-united-kingdom/ ) - am sure other data exists but this was the most obvious link

If trains are 10x safer than coach/bus (it seems like the true number could be even higher multiple), why is the system allowed to relax its safety to 1/10th of its normal amount every time it repairs the track? Would we ever, temporarily, allow a single mile of railway to run 10x less safe than the standard?

Or, would we be happy if the trains were run to be 10x less safe, because apparently it's "ok at weekends".. Of course not.

 

[Taunton]

But even if the Thunderbirds could be trusted to haul Pendolini around, you're looking at around three hours from Carlisle to Preston via the S&C - e.g. https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:U63701/2022-02-26/detailed -

Well if it is timed at 2 hours 10 minutes from Carlisle to Hellifield nonstop, where the all stations stopping dmu is 1 hour 45 minutes for the same, and a steam-hauled express with a Jubilee in the 1950s was timed at 1 hour 30 minutes, what do you expect ...

In fact, just for a laugh, I've looked at a Midland Railway timetable for 1920, post-WW1 everything run down, with a Compound 4-4-0; they didn't have anything larger. 1 hour 45 minutes Carlisle to Hellifield.

 

[O L Leigh]

Well if it is timed at 2 hours 10 minutes from Carlisle to Hellifield nonstop, where the all stations stopping dmu is 1 hour 45 minutes for the same, and a steam-hauled express with a Jubilee in the 1950s was timed at 1 hour 30 minutes, what do you expect ...

Non-stop only means that it doesn't call anywhere. That doesn't mean that it's not booked to follow the all-shacks local rattler or a heavily-loaded freight up hill and down dale, hence the inflated journey time.

 

[Taunton]

Or, would we be happy if the trains were run to be 10x less safe, because apparently it's "ok at weekends".. Of course not.

Well, it was "OK at weekends" to schedule the RHTT at Salisbury at only half the interval of weekdays, only once instead of twice a day (and then they didn't run it at all ... )

 

[Whistler40145]

Well if it is timed at 2 hours 10 minutes from Carlisle to Hellifield nonstop, where the all stations stopping dmu is 1 hour 45 minutes for the same, and a steam-hauled express with a Jubilee in the 1950s was timed at 1 hour 30 minutes, what do you expect ...

In fact, just for a laugh, I've looked at a Midland Railway timetable for 1920, post-WW1 everything run down, with a Compound 4-4-0; they didn't have anything larger. 1 hour 45 minutes Carlisle to Hellifield.

Also have to take into consideration that the S&C has a lower maximum line speed to years ago

 

[Carlisle]

The word you missed there was "unreliable"

If the Thunderbirds had coupled up to 390s reliably then they'd still be dragging them to Holyhead (and we'd have more Voyagers available for busy XC services rather than having to use them for WCML services from London to Crewe, best part of a couple of hundred miles under the wires

I’m not sure they’d still be running to Holyhead as I don’t think there were enough 390s alone to run everything once many of the west coast mainline’s XC services became Virgin’ ones, so taking on some Voyagers, the only other stock capable of EPS speeds at the time was unavoidable , but I agree once this happened simply axing the Thunderbirds & later some diversionary routes rather than investing anything in addressing the problems was simply an easy way to save money.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Feb 2022 ==

Like many things on the railway, unless there is a very clear enforcement route what sounds like a 'commitment' soon gets watered down as a result of practical operational issues and also scrutiny by the FD/the finance side of DfT.

Your spot on with that analysis.

 

[voyagerdude220]

I can remember Virgin Voyager/Super Voyager services taking around 2 hours 10 minutes- 2 hours 20 minutes between Preston and Carlisle and v.v. via the S&C, not quite as slow as others have stated.

Yes it's cheaper to run replacement busses but whilst Avanti still have their 221s they could (should) run a small number of shuttle services between Preston and Carlisle and v.v. via Settle- in a similar form to what they have done with 221s between Carlisle and Glasgow via Kilmarnock.

I'm not on about a full hourly frequency- Just have two pairs of 2x221 going up and down all day. Better than none at all.

Then this would provide Avanti with a Plan B whenever something goes badly wrong on the WCML between Preston and Carlisle which isn't unknown to happen.

 

[Dr Hoo]

I can remember Virgin Voyager/Super Voyager services taking around 2 hours 10 minutes- 2 hours 20 minutes between Preston and Carlisle and v.v. via the S&C, not quite as slow as others have stated.

Yes it's cheaper to run replacement busses but whilst Avanti still have their 221s they could (should) run a small number of shuttle services between Preston and Carlisle and v.v. via Settle- in a similar form to what they have done with 221s between Carlisle and Glasgow via Kilmarnock.

I'm not on about a full hourly frequency- Just have two pairs of 2x221 going up and down all day. Better than none at all.

Then this would provide Avanti with a Plan B whenever something goes badly wrong on the WCML between Preston and Carlisle which isn't unknown to happen.

I'm not sure that a (say) three-hourly frequency would achieve very much, bearing in mind that two changes would still be required for 'through' passengers (e.g. Birmingham-Glasgow or Edinburgh-Manchester). With a typical level of WCML services of 3tph each way we are talking about 9 trains 'connecting' into one of the shuttles either end

The Preston-Carlisle via S&C trip involves effectively four single line bottlenecks (ladder junction south of Preston station, junction onto the Clitheroe line near Blackburn, Ribblehead Viaduct and the southern approach to Carlisle station) so is especially difficult to timetable. Other 'core' services, such as the Todmorden Curve trains to Blackburn, the Bentham line and freights from the relatively new connection at Arcow Quarry (with both shunts at Arcow and run-rounds at Blea Moor) have become more frequent in recent years. Whilst these might be 'flexed out of the way a bit' for pre-planned engineering works this doesn't apply for short-notice emergencies.

With particular reference to 'Plan B', I am still unclear how the Voyagers can magically be taken from Euston, Holyhead, Shrewsbury or wherever to Preston and Carlisle in time to be useful.

 

[Whistler40145]

I'm not sure that a (say) three-hourly frequency would achieve very much, bearing in mind that two changes would still be required for 'through' passengers (e.g. Birmingham-Glasgow or Edinburgh-Manchester). With a typical level of WCML services of 3tph each way we are talking about 9 trains 'connecting' into one of the shuttles either end

The Preston-Carlisle via S&C trip involves effectively four single line bottlenecks (ladder junction south of Preston station, junction onto the Clitheroe line near Blackburn, Ribblehead Viaduct and the southern approach to Carlisle station) so is especially difficult to timetable. Other 'core' services, such as the Todmorden Curve trains to Blackburn, the Bentham line and freights from the relatively new connection at Arcow Quarry (with both shunts at Arcow and run-rounds at Blea Moor) have become more frequent in recent years. Whilst these might be 'flexed out of the way a bit' for pre-planned engineering works this doesn't apply for short-notice emergencies.

With particular reference to 'Plan B', I am still unclear how the Voyagers can magically be taken from Euston, Holyhead, Shrewsbury or wherever to Preston and Carlisle in time to be useful.

Another issue, I very much doubt Avanti have any drivers with the Settle & Carlisle line on their route cards

 

[jayah]

This! I'm surprised how many people commenting here seem to think RRB is a non issue for passengers. Several years of doing long distance bookings and passengers would actively avoid replacement buses wherever they could. By contrast I can't recall anyone deciding not to travel when a diversion meant a longer journey time by train.

The quality of RRB operations varies enormously. It's not just the quality of vehicle but also route knowledge of the drivers including where the actual stops are for smaller stations and levels of signage/assistance at stations. There's also the issue that when things go wrong or buses get stuck in traffic there's generally no real time information.

I've spent a few weekend days staffing RRB in the past and to provide a decent service you need to be really switched on as to what arrangements are in place and keeping track of what's actually happening. Unfortunately a lot of RRB staff at stations tend to be agency workers on minimum wage who lack the training and/or motivation to do this. So a lot of the time if it starts going wrong passengers will just be met with a shrug. A lot of the time at smaller stations you won't find any staff and the bus stop may be some distance away with inadequate signage. South Eastern tried to tackle this with fixed RRB bus stop signage for each station but most TOC's have not been so proactive.

Tfl provide signed routes for RRB's but the TOC's generally shrug their shoulders and say it's the bus operator's job to know. That's all very well but it frequently goes wrong when drivers get lost, I can recall being on one and the driver shouting 'does anyone know where the station is?'

So even where buses are unavoidable the rail industry could do a lot to improve the quality of the experience. If it was a little more consistent passengers might not even object to them quite so much!

Most people who tough it out travelling on Sundays can recount stories like these. Delays, missed connections, traffic snarl ups, roadworks, driver needs directions. It is a lottery if you aren't at the start or end station whether the bus will bother to go into your station at all, even when it is signposted as the RR stop. Far less safe, with fires, accidents, breakdowns and less comfort with urban buses used on long runs with low back seats.

Modern possessions are far too long. They need to concentrate on one worksite, with a very short RR over the gap, not closing 20,30,50 miles of route for weekend after weekend. Every few years someone pops up and promises a culture change with diversions, single line working etc.. and every year it seems to go further in the other direction. If they have to close a lot of route, then it should be diversions first, second and third. Of course before sectorisation most of the current issues didn't exist, because drivers at Kings Cross or Carlisle would drive all the routes and traction in that area and now you have drivers who know one route and one or two fleets and cannot deviate without months of learning.

 

[The Planner]

If you havent got two stations where you can reliably undertake a RRB operation, or the infrastructure to turn trains then your possession gets larger by default.

 

[jayah]

If you havent got two stations where you can reliably undertake a RRB operation, or the infrastructure to turn trains then your possession gets larger by default.

What is your definition of a station where you cannot reliably undertake RR buses?

This Sunday you have 20-25 miles closed between Three Bridges and Brighton. 10 buses an hour in each direction into a major city, up to 7 stops taking anything up to 90mins. Not a recipe for reliability.

You don't need 'infrastructure' to turn trains back, you need a process. Far easier to fix that than achieve the pipe dream that we keep being promised - relaying on one track while trains keep running on the next.