Russia invades Ukraine

[GS250]

Another angle, is that conflicts are taking place all over the World. Loss of life has been devastating. On a daily basis. Whats going on in Ukraine is pretty much business as usual as far as some other countries are concerned.

 

[tommy2215]

That isn't a given. While China and Russia both see "the West" as adversaries their overall goals don't align completely. Russia and China are "frenemies" at best.

China might not want conflict but if it got caught up in a war which it would in that case, China will definitely back Russia, certainly with supplies. And even if it "isn't a given", that certainly doesn't justify the risk.

 

[brad465]

With Russia providing a huge amount of gas to Europe, I have been wondering if they are considering stopping supplies.

Yes, Russia would lose a huge amount of money but it would seriously impact Europe. Not seen much media noise on the risk of this…

I'd say if Russia did this last November, give or take a month, then Europe would be very seriously impacted. But going into spring, while there maybe an initial impact, improving weather should reduce gas demand for the next 6 months or so from around April, and in the meantime alternative gas supplies can be sourced wherever possible.

One of the very reasons that Putin has been getting so worked up about Ukraine is because he didn't want a border with NATO (assuming Ukraine was going to join). So it would make sense that he doesn't intend to occupy it but rather just put up a Soviet-style puppet government or something of the sorts. But it's anyone's guess I suppose.

One can hope that the sanctions etc that follow will further destabilise Putin's position, and I hope that this is less of a beginning and more of the final battle cry from a dictator on the way out. Certain signs leave room for this sort of optimism but of course the situation is very dire right now. Let us hope that the west can successfully form a united front against this aggression (save for the one member on this forum who appears to be a walking talking copy of Pravda!)

Yes for Ukraine to be occupied as Russian territory would be counterproductive, as Russian citizens would still be bordered by more democratic states than his. He arguably needs puppet regimes surrounding Russia as much as possible to act as "buffer states". He's already doing this with Belarus and to a lesser extent the Caucasus states, wants to do it with Ukraine; fortunately he was too late for the Baltic states.

 

[southern442]

Yes for Ukraine to be occupied as Russian territory would be counterproductive, as Russian citizens would still be bordered by more democratic states than his. He arguably needs puppet regimes surrounding Russia as much as possible to act as "buffer states". He's already doing this with Belarus and to a lesser extent the Caucasus states, wants to do it with Ukraine; fortunately he was too late for the Baltic states.

This would certainly be a nod towards the 'iron curtain' set up by his Soviet predecessors for whom he seems to have so much admiration.

 

[alex397]

If you look at the jointly conjoined land areas of both Belarus and Ukraine, they do make a sizeable part of that area of Europe.

Indeed!

I imagine the Baltic states can sometimes feel a bit claustrophobic, bordered by large areas of Russia and Belarus and the Kaliningrad oblast, with just a small land border to Central Europe. They must be relieved they joined the EU and NATO when they did!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Yes for Ukraine to be occupied as Russian territory would be counterproductive, as Russian citizens would still be bordered by more democratic states than his. He arguably needs puppet regimes surrounding Russia as much as possible to act as "buffer states". He's already doing this with Belarus and to a lesser extent the Caucasus states, wants to do it with Ukraine; fortunately he was too late for the Baltic states.

What is the current position with Chechnya and the other north Caucasus states whose populations are overwhelmingly Muslim, where Russian forces were operating in conflict zones in past times. I have heard an opinion expressed today in our local village area that whilst Islamic State have been checked by Russian military power, aiding the Syrian regime in the north of that country, they could well decide to use this moment in time to move their forces from Afghanistan where they have a sizeable presence over to the north Caucasus area to harry the Russian military presence there. Russian attempts to impose a Communist puppet state in Afghanistan lead to a humiliating retreat and the deaths of a great many of its troops there.

 

[Caboose Class]

Putin's action of invading Ukraine is quite understandable. He is simply not going to permit another NATO member state on his border. Both Belarus and Ukraine are his "Buffer States". And don't forget also that most NATO member states were unwilling to offer Ukraine (and Georgia) NATO membership at the North Atlantic Summit held in Bucharest in 2008. It was the Americans who managed to push that through. If anyone. blame the Yanks for the present crisis. Ukraine does not remotely come into their sphere of influence.

 

[DarloRich]

I notice that Lukashenko of Belarus is stating that while none of his troops are currently involved in the invasion of Ukraine they will take part if necessary.

All very Mussolini: join in late and hope to grab some territory.

 

[Gostav]

China might not want conflict but if it got caught up in a war which it would in that case, China will definitely back Russia, certainly with supplies. And even if it "isn't a given", that certainly doesn't justify the risk.

And don't forgot the West has been accusing and boycotting China in terms of human rights, Muslim rights, animal rights, etc, especially after the Hong Kong protest movement. China definitely hopes to find an excellent opportunity to counteract, such as this week.

 

[kylemore]

Sadly, the consequences of the neo-fascist coup in Kiev exactly 8 years ago are coming home to roost. Russia has had enough of what it perceives as an insolent regime under the direction of Brussels and Washington, and now seems to have decided to use all available means to bring it to heel. The Ukraine is waking up to smell the coffee.

That just about sums it up. The West ie. the US created a midden on Russia's doorstep complete with the Ukrainian Government tolerated/supported Nazi Azov Battalion terrorising the Russian speakers of the Donbass. A means, so they thought, of de-stabilising an independent Russia that saw through their corrupt world system. Needless to say they give not a damn for ordinary Ukrainians.

The Russians have not hitherto been in a position to deal with this midden - now they are.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Its a terrifying situation to be in right now, and I really fear for the people of Ukraine.

Although it’s unlikely this would escalate into a wider conflict, the risk is still there and for me that’s the scariest part.

 

[DarloRich]

Putin's action of invading Ukraine is quite understandable.

No it is not, unless you are a crank.

Both Belarus and Ukraine are his "Buffer States".

Not they are not. They are ( or should be) independent nations able to determine thier own foreign and domestic policies. They are not mere chattels for Putin to manage.

That just about sums it up. The West ie. the US created a midden on Russia's doorstep complete with the Ukrainian Government tolerated/supported Nazi Azov Battalion terrorising the Russian speakers of the Donbass. A means, so they thought, of de-stabilising an independent Russia that saw through their corrupt world system. Needless to say they give not a damn for ordinary Ukrainians.

The Russians have not hitherto been in a position to deal with this midden - now they are.

Nonsense. Why are you and others supporting oppression and invasion of an independent nation by an authoritarian regime? It also appears you "give not a damn for ordinary Ukrainians" as you cheer on imperialism, the subjugation of thier country and the suppression of thier rights of self determination.

 

[AlterEgo]

We ask all Russians to search their souls and ask them has Putin truly bought them happiness and economic freedom. Has Putin been graceful in electoral defeat? Has Putin allowed freedom of thought to all even those who disagree with them?

We ask all Russians who are common and decent who go about their daily business to distance themselves from those who tow the Putin dogma.

We ask all Russians who seek freedom and a life without the jackboot of Putin's megalomania to leave Russia so that we can counterstrike with the most minimum of casualties. If members of the Douma and Kremlin staff have felt scared, belittled and blackmailed to follow orders, they will be helped if they leave. For those remaining with love for Putin and his warped view of the world, prepare for economic devastation at the very least.

This isn't the fault of the ordinary Russian nor is it their issue to remedy any less than Britain's conflicts are your fault or responsibility.

 

[Chingy]

Its a terrifying situation to be in right now, and I really fear for the people of Ukraine.

Although it’s unlikely this would escalate into a wider conflict, the risk is still there and for me that’s the scariest part.

In my opinion, it's quite possible this conflict will grow and grow over time, Russia will keep pushing, so as to eventually force NATO to react, and once NATO does react, you have the beginnings of a global war, as inevitably China etc will also become involved.

Will we see Russian missiles land on British soil in the future? All depends on how big Putin's balls are, and early impressions suggest they're big!

 

[LOL The Irony]

All very Mussolini: join in late and hope to grab some territory.

What exactly is he going to grab, Pripyat?

On a related note, somebody could easily shell Chernobyl and that is not a comfortable prospect.

 

[DarloRich]

Will we see Russian missiles land on British soil in the future? All depends on how big Putin's balls are, and early impressions suggest they're big!

That is not going to happen. Putin knows he can do what he wants in Ukraine and the west will complain, sanction and cut off relations but nothing further. He also knows he can go no further, militarily. That does not, of course, rule out cyber attacks designed to damage the infrastructure of western nations

Attacking a NATO country would be suicide: an attack on one is an attack on all

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Attacking a NATO country would be suicide: an attack on one is an attack on all

Hence why Putin is so against Ukraine becoming one, I assume.

 

[Caboose Class]

No it is not, unless you are a crank.

I've been called many things in my time but never a crank!

Not they are not. They are ( or should be) independent nations able to determine their own foreign and domestic policies. They are not mere chattels for Putin to manage.

I bet you've never been to Ukraine, Belarus or Russia!

Nonsense. Why are you and others supporting oppression and invasion of an independent nation by an authoritarian regime? It also appears you "give not a damn for ordinary Ukrainians" as you cheer on imperialism, the subjugation of their country and the suppression of their rights of self determination.

I think you fail to see the bigger picture. You might like to watch

That is not going to happen. Putin knows he can do what he wants in Ukraine and the west will complain, sanction and cut off relations but nothing further. He also knows he can go no further, militarily. That does not, of course, rule out cyber attacks designed to damage the infrastructure of western nations

Attacking a NATO country would be suicide: an attack on one is an attack on all

I agree with all of that.

 

[kristiang85]

What exactly is he going to grab, Pripyat?

On a related note, somebody could easily shell Chernobyl and that is not a comfortable prospect.

Even worse, in the east of Ukraine there are underground mines full of radioactive waste from Soviet weapons testing. They have fallen into disrepair since the war started in 2014, and are gradually flooding. If this waste gets into the wider environment it will contaminate huge parts of Ukraine. And one fear is that the Russians might well want to tactically hasten this...

 

[AlterEgo]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Feb 2022 ==


I agree with all of that.

If we've been to Russia and Ukraine do we get brownie points in this thread and does it give authority to tell other people they're talking nonsense? Just asking.

 

[adrock1976]

UEFA are considering the possibility of staging the final of the European Cup/Champions League elsewhere depending upon the line up of the final, as it is/was due to be held in St Petersburg/Petrograd/Stalingrad/Leningrad.A possible venue may be the Olympic Stadium in London, as Wembley will be hosting the second tier play off matches the same day. See https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/spor...ke-champions-league-final-away-st-petersburg/ from the Glasgow Evening Times via the Press Association.

Original article below

UEFA prepares to take Champions League final away from St Petersburg

Contingency plans are being drawn up by UEFA over where to host this season’s Champions League final, the PA news agency understands.
The 68,000-capacity Gazprom Arena in St Petersburg had been awarded the chance to host Europe’s showpiece event but events overnight look likely to force a change of venue.
Russia president Vladimir Putin instructed an attack on Ukraine, with explosions heard in the capital Kyiv while blasts were also reported in the cities of Odessa and Kharkiv.

UEFA is monitoring the situation with the Russian city set to be stripped of hosting the final, which is scheduled to take place on May 28.
Football Supporters Europe have called for an “imminent announcement” over arrangements for the showpiece in three months time.
“On this tragic day, our thoughts are with everyone in Ukraine, our friends, colleagues, members, & their loved ones,” an FSE statement on Twitter read.

“Given the events unfolding, we expect an imminent announcement from UEFA on the relocation of the Champions League final from Saint-Petersburg.”

After changing the venue for the final for the 2020 and 2021 editions due to the coronavirus pandemic, European football’s governing body could be forced into a further switch but may wait until the latter stages of the competition to see which sides remain in the tournament.
If another all-English final was to occur, like last year’s between Chelsea and Manchester City, there would be pressure to host it in the UK but two major stadiums are already out of bounds.

Wembley is set to host the Sky Bet Championship play-off final on May 28 while the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is primed to host rugby league’s Betfred Challenge Cup Final on the same day.
It may open the door to another venue in England’s capital, West Ham’s London Stadium, which would have space in its summer schedule.




London Stadium chief executive Graham Gilmore told The Daily Telegraph: “We have a great history of putting on world-class events from Major League Baseball to sold-out concerts and of course Premier League matches.
“We are always happy to hear from event holders, and there is a clear track record of the stadium and London hosting the biggest events brilliantly.”
Holders Chelsea, owned by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United are all in the last 16 of the Champions League.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier this week told the House of Commons: “A Russia that has pariah status – no chance of holding football tournaments in a Russia that invades sovereign countries.”

The Ukraine Premier League was set to end its winter break on Saturday but a suspension of the division has occurred following Russia’s attack.
Football in the country stopped on December 13 and will remain paused, which could have a knock-on affect for preparations for next month’s World Cup qualifier with Scotland in Glasgow on March 24.
“Due to the imposition of martial law in Ukraine, the championship of Ukraine has been suspended,” a statement from the Ukraine Premier League read.

 

[DarloRich]

@Caboose Class

Unsure of the point you are making about visiting Russia, Ukraine or Belarus and the relevance to this thread. Could you clarify?

I am also quite clear on the bigger picture: Russia has invaded an independent nation. The rest is noise designed to justify that. I ask again: Why are you and others supporting the oppression and invasion of an independent nation by an authoritarian regime?

 

[Strathclyder]

Thoroughly unsurprised and bitterly depressed to wake up to this news this morning. Really do feel for the people of Ukraine right now...

Sadly, the consequences of the neo-fascist coup in Kiev exactly 8 years ago are coming home to roost. Russia has had enough of what it perceives as an insolent regime under the direction of Brussels and Washington, and now seems to have decided to use all available means to bring it to heel. The Ukraine is waking up to smell the coffee.

This is complete and utter rubbish, though it befits the alternative reality you seem to live in. What Russia (RE: Putin) 'percieves as a insolent regime' is more often than not totally out of step with reality, which is a independent nation whose only crime in this respect seems to either be it's wanting to join NATO to better defend against bullies (gee, I wonder why?) or it's wanting to forge it's own path as a independent nation on it's own terms and Putin's thin-skinned ego simply being unable to bear either or both of these oh-so hideous burdens. Or he's trying to distract from domestic politicial issues back home. Or COVID isolation has frayed his already tenuous grip on reality. Or some combination of all three.

Just to be 100% clear, not that you'll listen: Russia/Putin are the hostile parties here, not Ukraine. End of. Trying to portray the former two as the oppressed ones here is laughable bordering on delusional. All of the justifications they and their mouthpieces have put forth for their actions in regards to Ukraine fall apart the moment one applies a bit of scrutiny to them. Which is precisely their sole reason for existing: to distract from the fact that a authoritarian regime led by a despot has invaded a independent nation.

And it's Ukraine, not 'The' Ukraine. Honestly tired of seeing that pro-imperialistic soundbyte crop up somewhere in nearly every one of your posts in threads on this subject despite being called on it multiple times.

 

[Chingy]

Attacking a NATO country would be suicide: an attack on one is an attack on all

Surely though, if attacking NATO were to be a suicidal act, then NATO wouldn't fear going into Ukraine now?

I assumed the reason NATO isn't going into Ukraine, is for the very real consequences globally, after all, Russia has a considerable Nuclear armoury.

 

[d9009alycidon]

UEFA are considering the possibility of staging the final of the European Cup/Champions League elsewhere depending upon the line up of the final, as it is/was due to be held in St Petersburg/Petrograd/Stalingrad/Leningrad.A possible venue may be the Olympic Stadium in London, as Wembley will be hosting the second tier play off matches the same day. See https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/spor...ke-champions-league-final-away-st-petersburg/ from the Glasgow Evening Times via the Press Association.

Original article below

On a similar note, Scotland are due to play Ukraine in a World Cup Qualifier, hears hoping they ahve a team that is capable of competing, at the same time Russia is due to play Poland, that one might have some politicians wanting a boycott.

 

[DustyBin]

That is not going to happen. Putin knows he can do what he wants in Ukraine and the west will complain, sanction and cut off relations but nothing further. He also knows he can go no further, militarily. That does not, of course, rule out cyber attacks designed to damage the infrastructure of western nations

Attacking a NATO country would be suicide: an attack on one is an attack on all

Unless Putin is truly mad, which I don’t believe he is, he’s not going to attack a NATO country let alone the UK. As you say it would be suicidal.

What will likely happen, assuming a Russian military victory in Ukraine, is that a puppet government will be installed and we’ll return to a Cold War-like situation.

 

[najaB]

Surely though, if attacking NATO were to be a suicidal act, then NATO wouldn't fear going into Ukraine now?

The problem there is that NATO's charter says (paraphrasing) that the organisation exists in a purely defensive capacity and will only take action to protect a member state. Ukraine is, despite years of trying, only an partner nation rather than a full member. So there would be no grounds for NATO to get involved.

 

[kristiang85]

This tweet basically sums up why Putin knows he has the west by the proverbial balls -

Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky:
- ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions
- ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways
- ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods
- BEL wants carve-out for diamonds
+ broad reluctance to sanction energy sector

https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374

We are too hooked on Russian money for our luxury goods, and of course energy. Western governments know he can just turn down the gas supplies, and people will see their prices rocket, and democratic governments tend not to last well in financial and cost of living crises. There is no appetite for military intervention.

I think there is going to be a lot of blustering and a lot of fairly ineffectual sanctions from our side. Russia will see a short term economic blip, but ultimately a Russian puppet government will be installed in Ukraine and once the media gets bored there will be ongoing atrocities against pro-Western Ukranians which will seldom be reported.

On the sidelines, Xi Jingping is rubbing his hands with glee... if I was living in Taiwan I would be making arrangements to move abroad now.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Would stripping Russia of its Permanent Membership status of the United Nations Security Council be a possibility?

 

[GS250]

Surely though, if attacking NATO were to be a suicidal act, then NATO wouldn't fear going into Ukraine now?

I assumed the reason NATO isn't going into Ukraine, is for the very real consequences globally, after all, Russia has a considerable Nuclear armoury.

To be fair, Saddam invaded Kuwait knowing fully well what the response would be. And that being at least 3 nuclear capable countries would be looking to drive him out.

Either way, you reduce your armed forces at your peril. And you certainly don't let go of your nuclear weapons....