The problem is that there is still, theoretically, the distinction between routes which are commercial and routes which are tendered. Plus of course multiple flavours in between where certain trips, or even sections of route, are supported. Yes, I agree that the definition is blurred by the fact that all routes are being supported by Government through CBSSG and now BRG, but that money is more like the ENCTS re-imbursement (albeit paid in the place of passengers) than an end to de-regulation, and even the DfT still recognises the split in the way both funds have been administered.
How is it proposed to define what routes and timetables should be run, now and in the future? We don't know what the "new normal" will look like. Yes, lots more working from home, but does that have much affect on buses? Yes and no, depending on where those buses operate, I'd say. It is noticeable that concessionary pass usage lags behind faire-paying passengers, but one wouldn't think that older people are making big use of on-line shopping. Or are they? Are the "missing" ENCTS journeys those which used to be made for leisure/non-essential purposes? If they are, is it the bus that's unattractive now, or the destination/activity? Should the industry advertise heavily while it is struggling for staff, and when Government is suggesting that buses are dangerous so passengers need to wear a mask. And if advertising was successful and passenger numbers rose, would that lead to other passengers making fewer journeys as they are nervous about travelling on busy buses?
And even if all the answers were known to the above questions, who would be implementing change? The Local Transport Authorities (LTAs) don't have the capacity, as DfT recognises through Capacity Funding for extra staff in connection with Bus Back Better, and the setting up of a Centre of Excellence to train staff (not that anything has been heard about that for a while). At my LTA we have been working flat-out to achieve our Bus Service Improvement Plan (BSIP), and are still doing so to form our Enhanced Partnership (EP). Work that could all be in vane as DfT keep talking about "those authorities who get funding" with the clear indication that some won't get anything. Don't forget that these staff have still had to do the "day job" as well. In our case that means two intakes of pupils onto school transport, it means the on-going monitoring of those routes and the cyclical re-tendering of them when schools were in an it meant setting up special networks for Key Worker children when schools were "closed" (often with schools working together, so pupils went to different schools in the cluster each week). It has meant writing and re-write Covid Risk Assessments, and Safe Systems of Working and communicating them to operators, parents and school. It has meant all the usual work involved with work roads and road closures, and it saw us setting up and running a food parcel and pharmacy transport service, and adding Easter Egg distribution to Key Working children still at school with just 2-day's notice. It meant, and still means, doing what we could to advise passengers of changing levels of service, and providing data for the payment of CBSSG / BRG. Some of these tasks fall jointly to our our bus operators, while they have their own set of issues to manage.
But despite all that, yes "de-regulation", as such, is over. The DfT have certainly indicated that. Their take is that if they are spending money via our BSIP / EP then we/they can define what the operators do. Whether that is timetables, routes, vehicles features (be that something small, or something as big as an alternative fuel fleet) or indeed fares and ticketing (but we've been told to wait for anything complex which involves a "back-office" system to split revenue as DfT are working on something as they, rightly, recognise 70+ systems, one for each LTA, makes no sense). We'll have to see what the operators think about that style of funding with control, but it is very much the DfT's way of thinking. They also keep emphasising that everything has to go via "Number 10" and that they have never known a Prime Minister take as much interest as Boris is, so what happens if he is on the "next bus out" of there?
If any of us had had the merest thought that Covid would last so long, would we have done things differently? Perhaps, but LTAs can only work within the rules and funding handed down by DfT.