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Do branch lines contribute much financially to the greater network?

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yorksrob

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I wouldn't expect Tesco to keep all of its shops open indefinitely, I wouldn't expect a publisher to keep printing all of its magazines indefinitely, things that were once necessary become obsolete - but we seem to be stuck with the railway version of the Yellow Pages, some people cannot accept change

What a fascinating insight - except the fact that it's piffle. We're not having this discussion because the routes in question have started declining. We're having it because passenger traffic across the whole network was supressed by the Government and now it wants to cut its costs. And surprise surprise, the routes that have seen a decline arent the ones the cutters want to cut.

That's exactly what "robbing Peter to pay Paul" is though - reallocating resources to where they are best suited/needed - same goes for deciding act the money being spent on heavily subsidising a small number of rural passengers could be better used by improving services on lines with growth potential elsewhere

Ok, so it is. The point is that one instance causes permanent damage to the network and the other doesn't.

Any failing line always has people excusing it on the grounds that "if we significantly increased frequencies then more people would use it" - this is true, but is true of every lien in the country - but any additional resources being used on Middlesbrough - Whitby are resources that could be used on Middlesbrough - Hartlepool - Sunderland - Newcastle, and I know which route has more people regularly standing

How often do you want the Whitby branch to run then, before we could be in a position to decide whether it was busy enough?

As anyone who uses the Whitby branch knows, it's trains are busy enough to justify its existance anyway. The only people asking such a question are Beeching throwbacks. You are the perfect illustration of the problem. "Ooh, it's only the Barton branch", or "it's only the little bit of the line to Stranrear", but as soon as the Whitby line gets mentioned, with its full and standing four carriage trains, the lies behind the assurances of people proposing closures are revealed. Give the enemy an inch and they will take several miles.

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It's a justification for an improved service frequency on part of the line in exchange for withdrawal of services from other parts, for replacement with better bus services where that's more cost effective. As has been suggested, upgrading Llandovery to Swansea is the priority. Connecting buses would be able to run from the other stations to the nearest Marches line interchange, such as Hereford, Leominster, Ludlow, or Craven Arms.

So now we're talking about several settlements which have a direct service to Swansea/Shrewsbury and beyond, instead having to travel East on a bus to change to a train to regain South West ? I thought I was supposed to be the proponent of roundabout journeys !
 
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Starmill

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So now we're talking about several settlements which have a direct service to Swansea/Shrewsbury and beyond, instead having to travel East on a bus to change to a train to regain South West ? I thought I was supposed to be the proponent of roundabout journeys !
No. People going to Newport or Cardiff would doubtless continue to go by direct bus, or by road to Merthyr Tydfil, thence to Cardiff by rail.
 

yorksrob

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No. People going to Newport or Cardiff would doubtless continue to go by direct bus, or by road to Merthyr Tydfil, thence to Cardiff by rail.

But what about people going to Swansea/Shrewsbury/Manchester/Liverpool etc ?
 

Starmill

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Give the enemy an inch and they will take several miles.
If you think that there's one group of people who are nasty Beeching apologists who dislike trains and just want to annoy the honest travelling enthusiast then sure.

In reality I tend to think most of us are advocates of public transport, and we use it wherever we can, or, indeed, have devoted our careers to trying to make it better.

There are times when, because we understand that there's a serious consideration to be made for value for money, that railways might currently be in place where they're a poor transport solution. There are few of them, but they do exist. In addition, the reverse situation exists, where a line is disused despite it having all of the right conditions for a successful local rail service, such as the Northumberland line. Happily in that specific case this is being remedied.

Do you not think that might be more likely than that we're all "the enemy" and "Beeching throwbacks"?

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But what about people going to Swansea/Shrewsbury/Manchester/Liverpool etc ?
As suggested above, a bus to the interchange point: Llandovery for Swansea, Merthyr Tydfil for Cardiff, Leominster or Craven Arms for Shrewsbury and Manchester.
 
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yorksrob

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If you think that there's one group of people who are nasty Beeching apologists who dislike trains and just want to annoy the honest travelling enthusiast then sure.

In reality I tend to think most of us are advocates of public transport, and we use it wherever we can, or, indeed, have devoted our careers to trying to make it better.

There are times when, because we understand that there's a serious consideration to be made for value for money, that railways might currently be in place where they're a poor transport solution. There are few of them, but they do exist. In addition, the reverse situation exists, where a line is disused despite it having all of the right conditions for a successful local rail service, such as the Northumberland line.

Do you not think that might be more likely than that we're all "the enemy" and "Beeching throwbacks"?

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As suggested above, a bus to the interchange point: Llandovery for Swansea, Merthyr Tydfil for Cardiff, Leominster or Craven Arms for Shrewsbury and Manchester.

I'm not sating that you're one of them, but I believe there are a group of people who have an agenda to shrink the network for the sake of saving money.

I'm afraid I'm not a public transport enthusiast and never have been. I'm a railway enthusiast and I'm not interested in the network being reduced.
 

Starmill

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I'm afraid I'm not a public transport enthusiast and never have been. I'm a railway enthusiast and I'm not interested in the network being reduced.
While that's of course completely fair enough I think it's reasonable that people have politely suggested to you that this means your personal views and preferences and transport policy and funding decisions should remain two separate things.
 

yorksrob

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While that's of course completely fair enough I think it's reasonable that people have politely suggested to you that this means your personal views and preferences and transport policy and funding decisions should remain two separate things.

Firstly, why should I be forced to agree or shut up about a policy that would disadvantage me and other rail users. Those of us who prefer to use the train are under no moral obligation to agree to give up our railway services for some untried integrated transport utopia.

Secondly this is a railway forum, not a "public transport" forum.
 

Starmill

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Ok, so it is. The point is that one instance causes permanent damage to the network and the other doesn't.
Strictly both cause 'scarring' or a permanent effect. It merely takes different forms on an urban route where frequency goes down from hourly to half-hourly to where a rural service is replaced with a bus.

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Firstly, why should I be forced to agree or shut up about a
I don't think people are asking you to agree. I think people are pointing out the distinction between what they themselves want in life and what makes for good government.
 

yorksrob

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Strictly both cause 'scarring' or a permanent effect. It merely takes different forms on an urban route where frequency goes down from hourly to half-hourly to where a rural service is replaced with a bus.

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I don't think people are asking you to agree. I think people are pointing out the distinction between what they themselves want in life and what makes for good government.

The reduced service can be increased again in the future. The closed service usually cannot. That is the key difference.
 

yorksrob

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I don't think people are asking you to agree. I think people are pointing out the distinction between what they themselves want in life and what makes for good government.

If everyone agreed what was "good government" there would be no democracy.
 

Starmill

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The reduced service can be increased again in the future. The closed service usually cannot. That is the key difference.
Indeed but, for example, it's very obvious to those in Transport Scotland that to cut frequency to hourly on the Borders Railway or the various frequency halvings in suburban Glasgow are serious errors which will cost market share and revenue long term.

It's also very obvious that, if Girvan - Stranraer is mothballed next year we aren't going to need it back. Circumstances won't materially change that mean that the transport need in Stranraer cannot be met in the future without a railway line there.

You can compare the above two things over any sensible future appraisal periods you may choose and come to the same conclusion.

So overall the industry will have less money and be able to do less as a result of expending the subsidy on Stranraer while cutting deeply on the Borders and Glasgow suburban services.

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If everyone agreed what was "good government" there would be no democracy.
The principles of good governance should be apolitical.
 

Meerkat

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As anyone who uses the Whitby branch knows, it's trains are busy enough to justify its existance anyway.
Are the handful of trains enough to justify its existence, even if they are (allegedly but not statistically) 'busy enough'?
 

yorksrob

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Indeed but, for example, it's very obvious to those in Transport Scotland that to cut frequency to hourly on the Borders Railway or the various frequency halvings in suburban Glasgow are serious errors which will cost market share and revenue long term.

It's also very obvious that, if Girvan - Stranraer is mothballed next year we aren't going to need it back. Circumstances won't materially change that mean that the transport need in Stranraer cannot be met in the future without a railway line there.

You can compare the above two things over any sensible future appraisal periods you may choose and come to the same conclusion.

So overall the industry will have less money and be able to do less as a result of expending the subsidy on Stranraer while cutting deeply on the Borders and Glasgow suburban services.

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The principles of good governance should be apolitical.

And I go back to my other point, if we're worried about subsidy, why are we still paying several times over BR era rolling stock ? Why is it always route cuts people are interested in making.
 

Meerkat

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And I go back to my other point, if we're worried about subsidy, why are we still paying several times over BR era rolling stock ? Why is it always route cuts people are interested in making.
Please explain
 

Starmill

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And I go back to my other point, if we're worried about subsidy, why are we still paying several times over BR era rolling stock ? Why is it always route cuts people are interested in making.
And I go back to my other point. Lots of people are also interested in looking at ways to reduce the cost of staffing the railway too.

Unfortunately, daring to question the staff bill has led to many times more pages worth of 'discussions' here than this thread has seen. The one place it was tried at large scale, Southern, actually ended up with much higher staff costs because both the onboard supervisors and also the drivers had to be given significant above inflation pay awards. Changing to the OBS model has neither brought any secondary improvements such as better revenue protection or improved customer service. But I digress.
 

yorksrob

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And I go back to my other point. Lots of people are also interested in looking at ways to reduce the cost of staffing the railway too.

Unfortunately, daring to question the staff bill has led to many times more pages worth of 'discussions' here than this thread has seen. The one place it was tried at large scale, Southern, actually ended up with much higher staff costs because both the onboard supervisors and also the drivers had to be given significant above inflation pay awards. Changing to the OBS model has neither brought any secondary improvements such as better revenue protection or improved customer service. But I digress.

Well, I'm talking about leasing costs. We must be paying several times over the cost of building trains over their lifetime. Why is this deemed acceptable, but not subsidising a train service.
 

JohnRegular

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For all the bluster one way and another in this thread, the main point I'm getting out of it is that there aren't very many 'basket case' branch lines. Some which see low use in winter (Newquay, Whitby, Kyle), a couple that you could argue should stay because they serve large areas that would otherwise be 'rail deserts' (Far North, HoW).

How many could a majority of sensible, pro-public transport people agree should close? Barton-on-Humber, Conwy Valley and Stranraer? Maybe Kyle and Mallaig? How much money will that save? Is it likely we would ever regret their closure?

I dare say there's more merit in station closures than closing entire lines. How much money has been spent maintaining and stopping at the likes of Achanalt, Spooner Row, or any number of HoW stations, and who would really lose out if they were closed? A discussion for another thread, perhaps.
 

Meerkat

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Well, I'm talking about leasing costs. We must be paying several times over the cost of building trains over their lifetime. Why is this deemed acceptable, but not subsidising a train service.
Theoretically most of that cost is cancelled out by the receipts from the privatising of the original leasing companies. However they got sold off cheap largely because of Labours unfulfilled promise to renationalise the railways as soon as they got into power.
If they weren't costing lease fees then the business case for replacements would really suck!
 

daodao

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As suggested above, a bus to the interchange point: Llandovery for Swansea, Merthyr Tydfil for Cardiff, Leominster or Craven Arms for Shrewsbury and Manchester.
I would not have made the journeys I described in post 480 by public transport if it had required a bus connection from Craven Arms to Llandrindod Wells.
 

Starmill

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Theoretically most of that cost is cancelled out by the receipts from the privatising of the original leasing companies. However they got sold off cheap largely because of Labours unfulfilled promise to renationalise the railways as soon as they got into power.
If they weren't costing lease fees then the business case for replacements would really suck!
A lot of assets were clearly sold far too cheaply at the time. The story of Sealink makes that clear.

However, that is long in the past now and there was a windfall tax by New Labour which sort of brought some of that back in.

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I would not have made the journeys I described in post 480 by public transport if it had required a bus connection from Craven Arms to Llandrindod Wells.
Leominster or Hereford is more convenient for Llandrindod Wells.
 

daodao

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Leominster or Hereford is more convenient for Llandrindod Wells.
Hereford possibly, as there is now a direct bus service (Sargeants 461) to Llandrindod Wells, but not Leominster. However, for the 3-legged journey I described in post 480, the rail service was far more practical.
 

Starmill

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Hereford possibly, as there is now a direct bus service (Sargeants 461) to Llandrindod Wells, but not Leominster. However, for the 3-legged journey I described in post 480, the rail service was far more practical.
There will always be edge cases and unusual needs. That's not something which railway policy is there to accommodate.
 

yorksrob

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Theoretically most of that cost is cancelled out by the receipts from the privatising of the original leasing companies. However they got sold off cheap largely because of Labours unfulfilled promise to renationalise the railways as soon as they got into power.
If they weren't costing lease fees then the business case for replacements would really suck!

Then it eventually becomes a political issue, as with the Pacers. That said, these are the sort of embedded structural costs that we should be addressing, rather than cutting services.

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A lot of assets were clearly sold far too cheaply at the time. The story of Sealink makes that clear.

However, that is long in the past now and there was a windfall tax by New Labour which sort of brought some of that back in.

Even if those assets had been properly valued and sold accordingly, we'd still be faced with the issue of paying many times over for the cost of rolling stock through leasing costs.
 

Bald Rick

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Even if those assets had been properly valued and sold accordingly, we'd still be faced with the issue of paying many times over for the cost of rolling stock through leasing costs.

Whilst I agree that some money could be saved through buying direct rather than via Roscos, the saving isn’t that much. Remember that the railway would still have to borrow cash to finance the trains themselves, and be charged interest on that, and would have extra overhead Cost to deal with many of the activities the Roscos do. The extra that Roscos ‘cost’ is the difference between Government borrowing rates and open market rates (not a lot) plus a margin, plus a price for the risk that they will end up with a fleet of trains off lease and no home for them - as many will do in the coming year or two.

There would be a bigger saving through a coherent rolling stock strategy, but that’s another subject.
 

yorksrob

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Whilst I agree that some money could be saved through buying direct rather than via Roscos, the saving isn’t that much. Remember that the railway would still have to borrow cash to finance the trains themselves, and be charged interest on that, and would have extra overhead Cost to deal with many of the activities the Roscos do. The extra that Roscos ‘cost’ is the difference between Government borrowing rates and open market rates (not a lot) plus a margin, plus a price for the risk that they will end up with a fleet of trains off lease and no home for them - as many will do in the coming year or two.

There would be a bigger saving through a coherent rolling stock strategy, but that’s another subject.

Indeed.

A coherent rolling stock strategy may be another subject, but if it saves money I would rather that than cutting the network.
 

Starmill

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Indeed.

A coherent rolling stock strategy may be another subject, but if it saves money I would rather that than cutting the network.
The incoherence of the rolling stock strategy has definitely led to higher risk and cost to Roscos, which they're charging back to the customer (the public) through higher prices for leases.

Fundamentally as Bald Rick says though, leasing trains is just a means of getting finance. It's actually fairly effective, and only looks bad when compared against current historically low government borrowing rates. Looking at the data today the Treasury can currently issue new thirty year bonds at just 1.3%.
 

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What a fascinating insight - except the fact that it's piffle. We're not having this discussion because the routes in question have started declining. We're having it because passenger traffic across the whole network was supressed by the Government and now it wants to cut its costs. And surprise surprise, the routes that have seen a decline arent the ones the cutters want to cut

The routes I'm trying to discuss here are ones that have declined because heavy rail is no longer competitive

Barton upon Humber was "useful" when people needed a ferry to get from Lincolnshire to East Yorkshire (e.g. Grimsby/ Scunthorpe - Hull). Then we built a road bridge and scrapped the ferry and were left with a branch line that is only of use for the small town of Barton upon Humber rather than journeys to the city of Hull. The branch declined because the market moved elsewhere - anyone from Grimsby/ Scunthorpe heading to Hull isn't going to base their travel plans around a bi-hourly train from Grimsby to Barton, they are going to either drive or take the regular buses from Grimsby/ Scunthorpe to Hull. The rail line has outlived its use

Kyle of Lochalsh was "useful" when people needed a ferry to get from the mainland to Skye (e.g. Inverness - Portree). Then we built a road bridge and scrapped the ferry and were left with a branch line that only serves the small town of Kyle. he branch declined because the market moved elsewhere - anyone from Inverness heading to Portree isn't going to base their travel plans around a handful of trains a day to Kyle, they are going to either drive or take the direct buses (which are faster from Inverness to Kyle than the railway). The rail line has outlived its use

Stranraer was "useful" when people took a ferry to get from Scotland to Northern Ireland. Then the boat market was decimated by cheap flights that took people directly from Edinburgh/ Glasgow to Belfast/ Dublin. Then the ferries competed by moving operations to Carinryan, to give a faster journey. So we are left with a railway line that serves the old ferry port at Stranraer rather than the town itself, but the ferries are long gone. The rail line has outlived its use

I know that you want us to validate your conspiracy theory that the Government has used Covid to abolish branch lines, but the three I've mentioned were struggling way before Covid.

The problem is that you have this absolutist view of the network and cannot accept any change (even though BR managed to trim it each year, closing a minor amount of stations/lines without causing the "Serpell" that you keep trying to panic people about), even when the circumstances have changed and heavy rail is no longer going to be able to compete

As anyone who uses the Whitby branch knows, it's trains are busy enough to justify its existance anyway. The only people asking such a question are Beeching throwbacks. You are the perfect illustration of the problem. "Ooh, it's only the Barton branch", or "it's only the little bit of the line to Stranrear", but as soon as the Whitby line gets mentioned, with its full and standing four carriage trains, the lies behind the assurances of people proposing closures are revealed

Ah, the amazing Whitby branch with it's "full and standing four carriage trains"

That's the Whitby in North Yorkshire, the one with around 130,000 passengers per annum, so 65,000 departing passengers pa, so 180 departing passengers a day... whereas a "full and standing four carriage train" is going to be in the region of three hundred passengers...

...now we know that the line was retained because of the school journeys, so we know that those services must have a regular flow of passengers twice a day during term time... but if there are lots of these "full and standing four carriage trains" as well (with around three hundred passengers on board) then that must mean that pretty much every Whitby service that isn't either (a) convenient for school passengers or (b) has @yorksrob on board must be completely empty, for those numbers to work?

Give the enemy an inch and they will take several miles

Except that BR managed to close stations each year without it leading to the complete abandonment of provincial railways... how come BR were able to close the Sinfin line without its closure leading to a thousand other stations being closed in the next couple of years?

Or Attercliffe Road or Culross or various other stations that BR closed without it leading to the entire collapse of the network? Woodhead? Corby closed, the sky didn't fall in, and it was re-opened years later.

Maybe because you are sounding a smidge OTT?

But what about people going to Swansea/Shrewsbury/Manchester/Liverpool etc ?

What about the people of Llandridnod Wells going to Manchester and Liverpool?

How many people take journeys from Llandridnon Wells to Manchester and Liverpool each year? A million? A thousand? A dozen? Is that really enough to warrant keeping the line? If that's the kind of market that you want to base things around then ... wow

If you think that there's one group of people who are nasty Beeching apologists who dislike trains and just want to annoy the honest travelling enthusiast then sure.

In reality I tend to think most of us are advocates of public transport, and we use it wherever we can, or, indeed, have devoted our careers to trying to make it better.

There are times when, because we understand that there's a serious consideration to be made for value for money, that railways might currently be in place where they're a poor transport solution. There are few of them, but they do exist. In addition, the reverse situation exists, where a line is disused despite it having all of the right conditions for a successful local rail service, such as the Northumberland line. Happily in that specific case this is being remedied.

Do you not think that might be more likely than that we're all "the enemy" and "Beeching throwbacks"?

Good points - I hope that Rob can understand that people on here care about the railway and want the railway to work, but that getting it into shape for the twenty first century means focussing on the areas where it is most competitive and expanding those areas, rather than continuing to throw money at failing branch lines

This obsessions with portraying everyone who disagrees with you as an "enemy" isn't healthy

And I go back to my other point, if we're worried about subsidy, why are we still paying several times over BR era rolling stock ? Why is it always route cuts people are interested in making.

There are lots of openings that people are interested in making too. One HS2 train will take as many passengers as a week's worth of passengers on a branch line. There are routes out there that could be opened (not just from the Bumper Book Of 1960s Closures, but looking at new alignments too, assessing travel patterns in the twenty first century rather than being fixated on routes that Beeching closed). It's not just cuts. It's just that you are so obsessed with preserving every inch of the old network that you can't see the opportunities out there in new routes.

There would be a bigger saving through a coherent rolling stock strategy, but that’s another subject.

The wasteful procurement by BR must put the ROSCO charges into perspective - all of the tiny classes and short lived locomotives... such a waste
 

A0

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And I go back to my other point, if we're worried about subsidy, why are we still paying several times over BR era rolling stock ? Why is it always route cuts people are interested in making.

That's a historic problem rather than a future one. There are already TOCs who have replaced (or have imminent plans to ) replace their remaining BR era stock. Indeed your "pet peeve" of Northern already has *more* post BR EMUs than BR generation and inroads are being made into its DMU fleet - I'd be surprised if the 15x's didn't start being culled fairly soon.

For new stock there is some merit in going down the leasing route - it's not dissimilar to the approach of using a PCP to buy a new car, you don't have to secure all the capital up front, you have points where you can return the vehicle if circumstances change etc. Yes, the ROSCO charges to cover that risk, but it is the ROSCO that is carrying the risk.
 

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I'd be surprised if the 15x's didn't start being culled fairly soon.
It's somewhat worrying how many 150s and 156s there are to replace which have at most a maximum operating life of 7-8 years left, and which really need to begin being withdrawn in 4-5 years. In Scotland there's at least an outline of a plan for how Sprinter replacement by 2030 is going to look. In England it's little more than a shrug of the shoulders.
 
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