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Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

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Eyersey468

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I get it, the clown thinks if he appears on TV a lot he will bore Omicron into submission, maybe that's his real aim :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol::lol:
 

yorkie

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Prof Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, points out that there's a "very high spike" in cases and that "records will be broken a lot in the next few weeks".

He says the Delta and Omicron infections are causing two "separate" epidemics.
This is false and misleading; it's the same virus (and not even a different strain) and all available evidence suggests Omicron is going to replace Delta.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Surprise surprise, they don't want us knowing the facts ahead of a press conference where Boris will try claiming things are a million times worse than they actually are... :rolleyes:
NHS England data now updated with new admissions up from 772 yesterday to 794 although this is only updated til 13/12 as they have a lag for allowing tests to return for people who are tested on admission. The total hospitalised as of 0900 morning stands at 6358 DOWN 76.

Guess the real test is how the next week plays out as there is 7-10 day lag on positive tests and admissions.
 

Ediswan

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This is false and misleading; it's the same virus (and not even a different strain) and all available evidence suggests Omicron is going to replace Delta.
I'd call it sloppy rather than misleading. I think he was trying to make the point that currently the daily case rate is the sum of Delta (falling ?) and Omicron (rising).
 

BRX

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all available evidence suggests Omicron is going to replace Delta.
This is incorrect. Available evidence does not suggest that it will necessarily replace Delta.

It seems that the common assumption has been that Omicron will displace Delta, just as Delta displaced Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc... before it. This may well be the case, but it's by no means definite. 1/15
(twitter thread explaining the above)

 
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Horizon22

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This is why London is showing this crazy growth, but it's less obvious elsewhere - this is the proportion of sampled PCR tests showing the tell-tale for Omicron (S Gene Target Failure) for Saturday: https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1470867202190368769

I am not too surprised - about half of my team are currently off or have been off with Covid the last couple of weeks. It is certainly spreading quickly & seemingly easily. Symptoms ranged from a bad cold & fever, to a mild cold.
 

yorkie

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This is incorrect. Available evidence does not suggest that it will necessarily replace Delta.

There is no evidence there to the contrary; just a theory that it might not happen.

As I said, the available evidence suggests it will replace Delta. You have offered no evidence to the contrary, other than a theory to say it might not, but I accounted for that small possibility already in my statement.

I see it references a "two-strain SIRS model" but I've not seen any evidence to suggest these are separate strains.

I also note the people who follow this dubious individual appear to be die-hard restrictionivists, alarmists and locktivists. That sets alarm bells ringing for me.
 
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adc82140

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So what if it doesn't replace delta? Vaccine protection for delta is extremely high, particularly after boosting.
 

yorkie

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So what if it doesn't replace delta? Vaccine protection for delta is extremely high, particularly after boosting.
True; I think the doom & gloom merchants are currently unhappy that Omicron is reportedly resulting in less severe outcomes than Delta and are very keen to use any argument possible to say that high case numbers could still result in large numbers of hospitalisations and deaths.

One way in which they can argue this is to say that reports from South Africa are premature; another is to argue SA has a different demographic (which is true, but we have a higher vaccination rate) and another is to argue that Delta is still with us. If they can argue that Delta could make a comeback this is another way to perpetuate fear, if Omicron does indeed turn out to be less pathogenic.

In short, they will use almost any argument they can possibly get away with saying to spread fear.
 

BRX

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There is no evidence there to the contrary; just a theory that it might not happen.

As I said, the available evidence suggests it will replace Delta. You have offered no evidence to the contrary, other than a theory to say it might not, but I accounted for that small possibility already in my statement.

I see it references a "two-strain SIRS model" but I've not seen any evidence to suggest these are separate strains.

I also note the people who follow this dubious individual appear to be die-hard restrictionivists, alarmists and locktivists. That sets alarm bells ringing for me.
They are both theories, each based on an interpretation of the available evidence.

It's not true to say that "all available evidence suggests" one or the other. I think you meant to say something like "most interpretations of the available evidence predict that Omicron is likely to replace Delta". The point is that there's an entirely plausible possibility that it won't.
 

duncanp

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True; I think the doom & gloom merchants are currently unhappy that Omicron is reportedly resulting in less severe outcomes than Delta and are very keen to use any argument possible to say that high case numbers could still result in large numbers of hospitalisations and deaths.

One way in which they can argue this is to say that reports from South Africa are premature; another is to argue SA has a different demographic (which is true, but we have a higher vaccination rate) and another is to argue that Delta is still with us. If they can argue that Delta could make a comeback this is another way to perpetuate fear, if Omicron does indeed turn out to be less pathogenic.

In short, they will use almost any argument they can possibly get away with saying to spread fear.

Got it in one.

Hence Chris Twitty's statement this evening that the data from South Africa had been "overinterpreted".

What a load of bovine excrement.

The data from South Africa doesn't justify Professor Twitty's doom mongering, and he is trying to rubbish it, with the hope of spooking Peppa Pig into introducing more restrictions.
 

43066

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I am not too surprised - about half of my team are currently off or have been off with Covid the last couple of weeks. It is certainly spreading quickly & seemingly easily. Symptoms ranged from a bad cold & fever, to a mild cold.

Anecdotally I’ve also know of half a dozen who’ve gone down with it in the last couple of weeks - does seem to be spreading a lot more quickly.

Reasonably good news from the press conference I thought - ironically I wonder if the extremely rapid spread of Omicron is what has resulted in them resisting plan C. It’s pretty clear that it’s already too late to stop case numbers rising rapidly and any restrictions are going to do little other than annoy everybody and damage the economy. Hence there’s no real alternative to just letting it spread and trusting in the vaccines to do their job. Even when hospitalisations do rise the NHS will just have to cope.

If that is the new approach, it’s a case of better late than never in my view!
 

Bertie the bus

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I can see the football season turning into a complete farce. On the BBC’s 6 O’clock news it had a segment about Bristol City and them asking fans to turn up an hour earlier so vaccine passports can be checked and then on the following North West Tonight a segment about tonight’s Burnley game being postponed due to Covid just 2 ½ hours before kick-off. In the coming weeks there are going to be some very disgruntled, and quite drunk young men in unfamiliar towns with little to do.
 

yorkie

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Chris Whitty & co won't want people reading this:

1 of 3: #Omicron Gauteng projections update 15 December. All numbers are now running below my 6 December projections. Deaths in the #Omicron wave is expected to be 25x lower compared to Delta
2 of 3: The #Omicron wave will be significantly milder compared to Delta.
https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1471189442916495364/photo/1
3 of 3: For an in-depth interview on this work listen to:
I am going to listen to the podcast now...
 

adc82140

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Hospital admissions are largely flat compared to last week. I've been told many times to wait for the lag. Omicron has been well seeded here for over 2 weeks. We are repeatedly told that there are many more cases than have been sequenced. So how long do I have to wait?

The paramedics I've spoken to at work have said that A&E is filling up with other stuff, and there is a massive logjam getting people out of hospital in to care homes. But there is no spike in dropoffs to the Covid admission unit.
 

NorthOxonian

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I can see the football season turning into a complete farce. On the BBC’s 6 O’clock news it had a segment about Bristol City and them asking fans to turn up an hour earlier so vaccine passports can be checked and then on the following North West Tonight a segment about tonight’s Burnley game being postponed due to Covid just 2 ½ hours before kick-off. In the coming weeks there are going to be some very disgruntled, and quite drunk young men in unfamiliar towns with little to do.
Some clubs have even taken more drastic measures - Carlisle United have reduced their capacity to 9,999, to avoid the need for vaccine passports!
 

Darandio

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Whitty did also say the following during the press conference.....

"I'm afraid we're also seeing the inevitable increase in hospitalisations up by 10% nationally, week-on-week, and up by almost a third in London."

Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly or is he lying?
 

Watershed

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there is a massive logjam getting people out of hospital in to care homes
That couldn't possibly have anything to do with the government enforced firing of tens of thousands of care home workers a month or so ago? :s
 
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