Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Freightmaster]

It means those who have had 3 shots have about a 25% chance of developing symptoms. When people who had 2 shots of the AZ vaccine had about a 30% chance of developing symptomatic Covid, how a lower chance of developing symptoms than we've had for the last few months suggests we are heading for a worse situation than March 2020 is beyond me.

I'm 99.9% sure that people who make "we're doomed - doomed I tell you!" posts like the
one you are referring to are getting all their information from The Guardian and/or Sky News...

(what was the last time the Guardian ran an upbeat/good news piece on Covid?)




MARK

 

[bramling]

I'm 99.9% sure that people who make "we're doomed - doomed I tell you!" posts like the
one you are referring to are getting all their information from The Guardian and/or Sky News...

(what was the last time the Guardian ran an upbeat/good news piece on Covid?)




MARK

Sky News is no better. They were foaming with delight when masks came back.

 

[Tracked]

Me too and I can’t stand Maria Carey!

That song was on Radio 2 the other day and I didn't switch it off, took a lateral flow test afterwards because I was concerned about changes to my taste ...

 

[Eyersey468]

I'm not 100% certain but the level of antibodies does wane over time. I think one of the main issues is some of the "experts" who have plagued our screens for the last 2 years are concerned about their fame waning and are milking this variant as though their lives depended on it.

I agree some of the 'experts' are milking this

 

[C J Snarzell]

Sky News is no better. They were foaming with delight when masks came back.

I refuse to watch Sky News - Kay Burley being a case in point. The fact she spent months critising MP's and helping to scaremonger viewers, only to breach the second lockdown with her 60th birthday party speaks volumes for me. What a delightful creature she is! She should have been sacked from Sky News, not suspended for six months.

CJ

 

[adc82140]

The Conservative rebellion is up to 60. Whilst it won't make a difference to the outcome as Labour are backing the new restrictions, it's the Tory backbenchers who ultimately hire and fire their leader.

 

[big_rig]

I now think a full closure of businesses and social contact (I refuse to call it a ‘lockdown’) is within the realms of possibility and it would, like the one this time last year, be indefinite to start. There are very good political and economic arguments against it but frankly Boris Johnson is not the leader of this country anymore, Chris Whitty is, and Boris and Sajid (had high hopes for him, oh well) will do whatever he orders. The usual suspects who have been wrong about everything before are back with their brainless exponential growth charts showing a million cases a day in a week etc and nonsense about vaccines being no good unless you’ve had three of them, no doubt that’ll be four sooner or later. I guess their justification will be that the clock has been reset to March 2020 until 3 or 4 vaccines have been delivered to everybody.

I think all of this is fundamentally wrong, anti-scientific and who knows whether people would comply or not, but it is not impossible to happen, as much as we would like that to be the case. Labour would vote to reintroduce the worst of the coronavirus legislation in a heartbeat. If Whitty says do it, Boris would follow orders. Maybe or maybe not he would be desposed, but there’s no guarantee his replacement would revoke it all. Just another three weeks to flatten the curve - but we are in territory now where we will not be allowed to wait and see whether it is really needed, it will be done ahead of time ‘just in case.’

 

[Eyersey468]

I now think a full closure of businesses and social contact (I refuse to call it a ‘lockdown’) is within the realms of possibility and it would, like the one this time last year, be indefinite to start. There are very good political and economic arguments against it but frankly Boris Johnson is not the leader of this country anymore, Chris Whitty is, and Boris and Sajid (had high hopes for him, oh well) will do whatever he orders. The usual suspects who have been wrong about everything before are back with their brainless exponential growth charts showing a million cases a day in a week etc and nonsense about vaccines being no good unless you’ve had three of them, no doubt that’ll be four sooner or later. I guess their justification will be that the clock has been reset to March 2020 until 3 or 4 vaccines have been delivered to everybody.

I think all of this is fundamentally wrong, anti-scientific and who knows whether people would comply or not, but it is not impossible to happen, as much as we would like that to be the case. Labour would vote to reintroduce the worst of the coronavirus legislation in a heartbeat. If Whitty says do it, Boris would follow orders. Maybe or maybe not he would be desposed, but there’s no guarantee his replacement would revoke it all. Just another three weeks to flatten the curve - but we are in territory now where we will not be allowed to wait and see whether it is really needed, it will be done ahead of time ‘just in case.’

This is my concern too, I am very worried we are now stuck in this cycle of restrictions and open close open close forever more. I absolutely despise Boris now anyway and will never forgive him for the damage he has done and the sheer hypocrisy of him and his cronies.

 

[yorksrob]

The scale of the transmission is the worry. It is an emergency as with 25% or more escape from booster together with low immunity from vaccine combined with a significant number of millions unvaccinated hospitals will be overwhelmed rather quickly.
With doubling at 2 days, or less, there is not much time to act.
All political concerns should be put aside to protect the public.
We face a worse situation than March 2020.

That is clearly nonsense.

The cast majority of people have been vaccinated, and in all likelihood the majority will still be protected from severe disease and hospitalisation.

The majority of the vulnerable have had boosters and in all likelihood will still be protected from severe disease and hospitalisation.

The situation is in no way comparable.

 

[DustyBin]

That is clearly nonsense.

The cast majority of people have been vaccinated, and in all likelihood the majority will still be protected from severe disease and hospitalisation.

The majority of the vulnerable have had boosters and in all likelihood will still be protected from severe disease and hospitalisation.

The situation is in no way comparable.

Let’s not loose sight either of the fact that we’re dealing with something akin to the common cold here.

 

[yorksrob]

I now think a full closure of businesses and social contact (I refuse to call it a ‘lockdown’) is within the realms of possibility and it would, like the one this time last year, be indefinite to start. There are very good political and economic arguments against it but frankly Boris Johnson is not the leader of this country anymore, Chris Whitty is, and Boris and Sajid (had high hopes for him, oh well) will do whatever he orders. The usual suspects who have been wrong about everything before are back with their brainless exponential growth charts showing a million cases a day in a week etc and nonsense about vaccines being no good unless you’ve had three of them, no doubt that’ll be four sooner or later. I guess their justification will be that the clock has been reset to March 2020 until 3 or 4 vaccines have been delivered to everybody.

I think all of this is fundamentally wrong, anti-scientific and who knows whether people would comply or not, but it is not impossible to happen, as much as we would like that to be the case. Labour would vote to reintroduce the worst of the coronavirus legislation in a heartbeat. If Whitty says do it, Boris would follow orders. Maybe or maybe not he would be desposed, but there’s no guarantee his replacement would revoke it all. Just another three weeks to flatten the curve - but we are in territory now where we will not be allowed to wait and see whether it is really needed, it will be done ahead of time ‘just in case.’

Essentially the government has two choices.

1 Keep businesses open, which won't stop the spread of infection, but will keep morale up and keep the economy ticking over or;

2 close businesses and have everyone socialising in eachothers homes instead, which again won't stop transmission, but will damage the economy and morale.

The third option, where SAGE and the like imagine everyone sitting at home not speaking to anyone, has effectively been taken off of the table by the government's own actions and won't happen under any circumstance.

Therefore they may as well keep businesses open.

 

[DustyBin]

Essentially the government has two choices.

1 Keep businesses open, which won't stop the spread of infection, but will keep morale up and keep the economy ticking over or;

2 close businesses and have everyone socialising in eachothers homes instead, which again won't stop transmission, but will damage the economy and morale.

The third option, where SAGE and the like imagine everyone sitting at home not speaking to anyone, has effectively been taken off of the table by the government's own actions and won't happen under any circumstance.

Therefore they may as well keep businesses open.

I think they’re deluded enough to go with the third option to be honest!

 

[yorksrob]

I think they’re deluded enough to go with the third option to be honest!

After last year's fiasco, it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Eyersey468]

After last year's fiasco, it wouldn't surprise me.

It wouldn't surprise me either

 

[21C101]

This is just crude naked fearmongering government mandated propaganda now, not even subtle.

"Vast majority of Britons have NO PROTECTION against Omicron: After 100 days two AstraZeneca doses offer virtually zero defence while two Pfizer jabs provide just 37% protection against new variant - but boosters cut risk of falling ill by 75%

 

[philosopher]

I now think a full closure of businesses and social contact (I refuse to call it a ‘lockdown’) is within the realms of possibility and it would, like the one this time last year, be indefinite to start. There are very good political and economic arguments against it but frankly Boris Johnson is not the leader of this country anymore, Chris Whitty is, and Boris and Sajid (had high hopes for him, oh well) will do whatever he orders. The usual suspects who have been wrong about everything before are back with their brainless exponential growth charts showing a million cases a day in a week etc and nonsense about vaccines being no good unless you’ve had three of them, no doubt that’ll be four sooner or later. I guess their justification will be that the clock has been reset to March 2020 until 3 or 4 vaccines have been delivered to everybody.

Given it seems quite likely Omicron for whatever reason results in milder illness compared to Delta, implementing harsher restrictions in response to Omicron seriously risks a cry wolf situation, in which people in future are subsequently very reluctant to follow public health measures, even for a more severe pandemic. This is what Francois Balloux, who is one of the more balanced commenters on Covid said a couple of days ago:

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1469027978797629445

Conversely, if it turned out to be much milder than anticipated, I would predict the public mood to turn against harsh restrictions, with a possible major backlash against authorities, which might make it more difficult to decisively respond to potential future threats. 3/

With Plan B, I think the government can just about get away with with it, for most people these restrictions are more in the nuisance category, however implementing harsher restrictions definitely risks this situation.

 

[adc82140]

Two jabs offers only 37% protection from getting the sniffles. So bleedin' what? Have we really become a country of, much as I despise the term, "snowflakes" that we expect everyone to cower at home in case we get a cold? Two jabs will give enough protection to keep most out of hospital. Don't forget, a common cold rhinovirus can put you on ITU if you are vulnerable enough, but I don't remember mass panic about that.

 

[big_rig]

Essentially the government has two choices.

1 Keep businesses open, which won't stop the spread of infection, but will keep morale up and keep the economy ticking over or;

2 close businesses and have everyone socialising in eachothers homes instead, which again won't stop transmission, but will damage the economy and morale.

The third option, where SAGE and the like imagine everyone sitting at home not speaking to anyone, has effectively been taken off of the table by the government's own actions and won't happen under any circumstance.

Therefore they may as well keep businesses open.

I agree with your points which make total sense, but I can’t agree that anything has been taken off the table and won’t happen under any circumstance. To do so would mean trusting Boris Johnson. In a railway sense I would liken it to electrification of very complex areas of track. There is nowhere in Britain which is fundamentally impossible to electrify. The only vector which really changes is the price (either in terms of time, or how many bodies must be applied to the task), and whether somebody is willing to pay a price of an almost unlimited level to achieve a goal. I think we can rule out electrification of say Dawlish sea wall on these grounds, but I don’t feel confident ruling out option 3. Time will tell!

Given it seems quite likely Omicron for whatever reason results in milder illness compared to Delta, implementing harsher restrictions in response to Omicron seriously risks a cry wolf situation, in which people in future are subsequently very reluctant to follow public health measures, even for a more severe pandemic. This is what Francois Balloux, who is one of the more balanced commenters on Covid said a couple of days ago:

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1469027978797629445

With Plan B, I think the government can just about get away with with it, for most people these restrictions are more in the nuisance category, however implementing harsher restrictions definitely risks this situation.

Again, I think Francois is completely in the right, he’s definitely a very trustworthy voice on this. But is his the voice telling Johnson what to do? Or is it Ferguson, who has brushed off all of his previous models with a ‘ohh yeah maybe I was wrong once but it wasn’t my fault, anyway I’m definitely right now, we’ll have a million cases a day soon, promise.’?

 

[43066]

This is just crude naked fearmongering government mandated propaganda now, not even subtle.

Not entirely clear from that awful article what they mean by “protection” or how those figures have been worked out. If it’s protection from symptomatic infections, that’s not what vaccines are primarily intended for, and in any case isn’t the same thing as protection against severe illness or hospitalisation.

 

[21C101]

Not entirely clear from that awful article what they mean by “protection” or how those figures have been worked out. If it’s protection from symptomatic infections, that’s not what vaccines are primarily intended for, and in any case isn’t the same thing as protection against severe illness or hospitalisation

Indeed, it is just a crude pack of lies to scare people into having the booster.

It is the soviet level crudity of it that stands out.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree with your points which make total sense, but I can’t agree that anything has been taken off the table and won’t happen under any circumstance. To do so would mean trusting Boris Johnson. In a railway sense I would liken it to electrification of very complex areas of track. There is nowhere in Britain which is fundamentally impossible to electrify. The only vector which really changes is the price (either in terms of time, or how many bodies must be applied to the task), and whether somebody is willing to pay a price of an almost unlimited level to achieve a goal. I think we can rule out electrification of say Dawlish sea wall on these grounds, but I don’t feel confident ruling out option 3. Time will tell!

Again, I think Francois is completely in the right, he’s definitely a very trustworthy voice on this. But is his the voice telling Johnson what to do? Or is it Ferguson, who has brushed off all of his previous models with a ‘ohh yeah maybe I was wrong once but it wasn’t my fault, anyway I’m definitely right now, we’ll have a million cases a day soon, promise.’?

When i say "taken off the table" I mean in terms of the public complying, not that the government wouldn't try and implement it anyway !

 

[yorkie]

I won't be locked down and I won't be restricted; if they stopped me going to the pub it would make me determined to meet people somewhere else. I am sure many others feel the same way.

Yesterday afternoon I got a train from Bushey and, without using the "m" word, let's just say over 90% of the people on that train did not appear to be interested in doing what Sadiq, Boris & co tell them to do

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Dec 2021 ==

When i say "taken off the table" I mean in terms of the public complying, not that the government wouldn't try and implement it anyway !

They might try but most people have had enough.

Others have speculated that the current measures are a sort of test to see how compliant people are with a view to imposing more restrictions; if this is so, then based on my recent observations I would say the test has not gone the way the Government wanted it to go

As far as I'm concerned, anyone calling for more restrictions is not someone I want to have anything to do with.

 

[LAX54]

Increasingly clear from that article what the line taken by the government is going to be. Even though 'Omicron' is much less severe it is so much more transmissable that - yes, you guessed it - hospital admissions will 'overwhelm the NHS'. So we have to have very harsh restrictions, maybe even lockdown, until we've got a new vaccine and rolled that one out.

And these *new* vaccines will be the 'route to freedom', honest, and of course we won't try to pull the same trick over and over again and again for the rest of eternity, honest.

I'm sure we can all see the problems with that story by now, but it appears that this is what they're going to try to sell us.

(This may be a good time for people to read up on 'original antigenic sin'. A good introduction can be found here - https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/more-on-original-antigenic-sin-and )



I entirely agree that this appears to be a very major issue with our society as a whole, and the current 'crisis' has brought it into very sharp focus.

We don't appear able to cope with the idea that 'this is all there is', and equally we can't cope with the concept that sometimes 'bad things just happen'. One of the very first posts I made here on Covid, back in May 2020, was partly about that.



There is no doubt that you can interpret the Covid mania as religious fervour - there are now a whole set of prophets, morals, rules, icons, sacred objects, rituals, and sins. And indeed heretics, ie. those who question or try to bring actual facts to the table.



I saw a recommendation to read this on a 'lockdown sceptic' place last year (probably Toby Young's, not much else was around at that point), and having done so I totally agree - very prescient indeed.

As Hospitals declare Code Black (?) every year, long before Covid, I assume it will be lockdown very year forever now....well until they pump a lot more money into it ! (new Hospitals, and GP surgeries etc ) I was asked the other day when talking about Covid......"and how many have died from Covid that YOU know" ? which was about 3 maybe 4, BUT I am 67 and in that time I have known about 6 or 7 die from a Heart Attack, and 4 that have died from Cancer, yet both are big killers, spouting odd numbers to support a case, to me, is a bit meaningless.

 

[Class 33]

There is absolutely no need whatsoever for any more ridiculous restrictions introduced/reimposed, let alone a full national lockdown! Hospital admissions are still relatively stable. Javid and Johnson previously said they would only implement "Plan B" if hospital admission start to rise significantly! As it stands, they've gone completely against what they said! Also Javid said last week that if it's found that Omicron is no more dangerous than Delta, that restrictions can be scrapped immediately. So far they've gone against that too! As current evidence is that is Omicron is causing only mild illness! What the government has done over the past 2 weeks by bringing in these ridiculous restrictions and what they may continue to do over the coming weeks is totally irresponsible over-reaction actions to this Omicron variant. It's absolutely appalling. Also absolutely appalling will be all these MP's who will be voting in favour of these restrictions in the parliament vote on Tuesday. Unfortunately the vote will win by an absolute landslide again. All of this just defies belief, it really does.

 

[AlterEgo]

I'm going to be highly controversial and say that, at the root of this is secularism and atheism, both of which have become widespread in the West in the years of unprecented prosperity and suppression of death by infectious disease since World War 2.

As a result this life is now seen as everything, we societally cannot cope with unexpected death or even misfortune (which must always be someone elses fault). This is reflected in ever increasng health and safety measures (which until Covid turned up, impacted mostly on the Safety side).

A better explanation is safetyism, which has its roots in secularism and atheism, but which essentially leads us down the same road. I think it is a pernicious ideology the West sleepwalked into, much more quickly since the advent of social media. The common man is now being confronted by not just a daily newspaper which summarises "what happened" but social media which demands he feel something about that all the time.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Dec 2021 ==

Couldn’t agree more Bertie.

Yes, most of these people have been totally irrelevant since they left the sixth form but now see the current situation as a chance to get media appearances, advance their careers, enact political changes, and so on. They are completely unaccountable and the stranglehold they have on public policy and essentially the entire economy amounts to a tyranny by default. Any special interest group which essentially gets to run the country is unwelcome if you care about democracy and consensus.

In a parallel universe you can imagine how perhaps Britain was faced with some bizarre disease that required the highest quality train services to combat, and everyone would be protected if they took three train trips a year. Rail enthusiasts and bosses, and transport unions effectively govern the country for two years. Even we'd be sick of that.

 

[21C101]

"Live: Coronavirus latest news: Omicron infection could act as a 'natural vaccine' for Covid, professor says​

Catching the omicron variant could act as a "natural vaccine" among people who are currently unvaccinated against coronavirus, an immunologist [Eleanor Riley] has suggested.

"Everybody’s very likely to experience it in the next few weeks. If it is milder, and we know infection induces an immune response, [so] it is possible that this could act as a natural vaccine, getting to those people who have so far been unwilling to be vaccinated," Prof Riley told BBC Radio 4.

"But I think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that, because there’s a huge ‘if’ about this ‘is it milder?’ And I think it’s very dangerous to compare data from South Africa to the UK. In the South African population there’s been so many waves of infection they’ve gone through, lots of immunity and a much younger population."

Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than last January without 'Plan C'

Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than the previous peak seen in January 2021 unless 'Plan C' measures are introduced, scientists have predicted.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Funnily enough I seem to recall a certain V Putin said that a week ago.

 

[Howardh]

I was gonna take the bus and train through central Manchester, returning at 5.30pm (ie shoppers peak = crammed public transport) to watch a football game. Despite having all three jabs, the current news/press etc have scared the whatsit out of me, and I'm driving now. Don't mind the game as it's in the open air.

Am I going out tonight? yes, to a bar that's normally no more than quarter full as it does it's main business during the day.

 

[Yew]

This is the worst type of scaremongering

COVID-19: Two jabs offer little protection against Omicron - but booster makes vaccine at least 70% effective

The UK has recorded 448 new Omicron cases in the latest 24-hour period - taking the total across the country to 1,265.

news.sky.com

So what? Who knows what the trends will do. The vaccines are 75% effective at preventing symptomatic disease, and way more effective at keeping people of hospital. The heat map for infections is stark. Very little in the over 60s, most in school age kids who won't get ill. Although Sky have now changed the headline where their not-so-bright hack claimed it would be 1 million cases a day!

That is a very big if, large fortunes have been lost on the stock market on similar gambles that short term effects are representative of longer term patterns.

 

[duncanp]

Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than last January without 'Plan C'

Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than the previous peak seen in January 2021 unless 'Plan C' measures are introduced, scientists have predicted.

www.telegraph.co.uk

I shared the same article on the support conversation thread.

A natural vaccine is something that should be encouraged, especially if it can reach the whole population in a matter of weeks.

I think the Omicron wave will collapse just a suddenly as it has increased, because if the doubling time is between two and three days as reported, the virus will run out of people to infect by late December or early January.

 

[43066]

Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than last January without 'Plan C'

Omicron could lead to more hospitalisations than the previous peak seen in January 2021 unless 'Plan C' measures are introduced, scientists have predicted.

www.telegraph.co.uk

That’s a statement of the bleeding obvious, surely? The immune response generated by any virus will effectively act as a natural vaccine!

Part of the problem driving the hysterical response is the tendency of people to regard Covid as something completely new and alien, (hence “long Covid” being used to describe what is better known as post viral fatigue). Covid is merely a novel version of a well understood virus.