Hydrogen trains for Whitby ?!

[The Ham]

Just for sake of completeness, here is the queue for the midday departure from Whitby. The arrival as usual for a Saturday we packed. View attachment 101412

By my count that's 25 people, or just enough to half fill a coach of up to 70 seats (allowing for not being able to see everyone).

Even if I've missed quite a few, that's still not enough for many to need to sit next to a stranger on a pair of seats.

 

[30907]

Just for sake of completeness, here is the queue for the midday departure from Whitby. The arrival as usual for a Saturday we packed. View attachment 101412

By packed, you mean significant numbers standing?
I'm surprised it was 2 cars only.

 

[yorksrob]

Just for sake of completeness, here is the queue for the midday departure from Whitby. The arrival as usual for a Saturday we packed. View attachment 101412

It just goes to show what a busy, well used route it is.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Aug 2021 ==

By my count that's 25 people, or just enough to half fill a coach of up to 70 seats (allowing for not being able to see everyone).

Even if I've missed quite a few, that's still not enough for many to need to sit next to a stranger on a pair of seats.

The trains to Whitby tend to have a reasonably long turn around time, so the chances are that there will have been a good number of people arrive after the train.

 

[The Ham]

It just goes to show what a busy, well used route it is.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Aug 2021 ==



The trains to Whitby tend to have a reasonably long turn around time, so the chances are that there will have been a good number of people arrive after the train.

Indeed, however even on a 2 coach train with (say) 130 seats you could still have about 75 people (3 times the number counted) and still not need to sit next to a stranger.

If there's 3 coaches with (say) 190 seats you could have about 100 people (4 times the number counted) and still not need to sit next to a stranger.

What fills a 2 coach train so there's some standing (say) 140 would still feel comfortable if a three coach train was used as there would be 1 in 4 seats available.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed, however even on a 2 coach train with (say) 130 seats you could still have about 75 people (3 times the number counted) and still not need to sit next to a stranger.

If there's 3 coaches with (say) 190 seats you could have about 100 people (4 times the number counted) and still not need to sit next to a stranger.

What fills a 2 coach train so there's some standing (say) 140 would still feel comfortable if a three coach train was used as there would be 1 in 4 seats available.

All good points.

I will say that I have seen all seats taken by Battersby on Fridays on 2 carriage units. Yes, I know Friday isn't a typical weekday, but it does emphasise that not all busy trains are summer Saturdays !

 

[37424]

Isn't this meant to be a pilot with a limited number of trains initially? so while its a pilot presumably there will still be plenty of sprinters in the North East which could be diagrammed on onto Whitby services which need 4 cars. Obviously if there was wholesale replacement with these trains at some point that would be more difficult.

 

[danielnez1]

More problems with "blue hydrogen"?

Hydrogen lobbyist quits, slams oil companies’ “false claims” about blue hydrogen

Recent studies have questioned blue hydrogen’s low-carbon bona fides.

arstechnica.com

 

[The Ham]

More problems with "blue hydrogen"?

Hydrogen lobbyist quits, slams oil companies’ “false claims” about blue hydrogen

Recent studies have questioned blue hydrogen’s low-carbon bona fides.

arstechnica.com

The big issue with blue hydrogen is that it relies on carbon capture, a technology which is in its fairly early stages of roll out and (without relying on models of 20% growth year on year) is likely to have limits of how much carbon can be sequestered. As such is better, if we are able, to use other power sources which have a naturally lower level of carbon when we consider whole life emissions.

 

[tbtc]

Have you ever used the Whitby line? It's usually full and standing even without the schoolkids, and is full and standing for the whole journey

185 ticket sales per day for journeys to/from Whitby. The true number of journeys will be considerably higher as on the packed out trains there's no way of the guard getting through to check tickets, and the regulars are well aware of that and act accordingly.

So the trains are all busy - so busy in fact that Guards are physically unable to pass through the train on a regular basis?

Northern have no intention of doing anything about it as the current situation suits them well - low official usage figures makes it much easier to get the DFT to approve lower frequencies at the stations in question and shorter trains

Why would Northern want to lower frequencies if the line is "usually full and standing even without the schoolkids, and is full and standing for the whole journey" though?

Surely they'd be eager to provide additional trains, given the huge passenger numbers that you are claiming?

It just goes to show what a busy, well used route it is

It goes to show how busy certain journeys are, on a branchline that has around 135,000 passengers a year (i.e. the total of arriving and departing), spread over about half a dozen return journeys a day with no significantly busy stations until you get into the Middlesbrough commuter market (i.e. Nunthorpe), yes.

Call it thirtysomething passengers on the average arrival/departure?

But the point that people keep missing is that, if you accept that certain journeys are very busy (four coaches required on Saturday leisure market in the summer holidays, regular standing) then that means that there are going to be a lot of journeys with below average passenger numbers, i.e. a three coach Hydrogen train will be able to cope with the vast majority of services over the year (which is surely the point of this thread) - you may need to run a couple of four coach DMUs on handful of days a year - but the 135,000 passengers a year are disproportionately using a small number of journeys - a three coach Hygroden train sounds like it'll be absolutely fine, with plenty of seats spare on most journeys.

 

[DanNCL]

So the trains are all busy - so busy in fact that Guards are physically unable to pass through the train on a regular basis?

During school holidays and on many summer weekends, yes. Obviously that isn't the case during the winter.

Why would Northern want to lower frequencies if the line is "usually full and standing even without the schoolkids, and is full and standing for the whole journey" though?

Surely they'd be eager to provide additional trains, given the huge passenger numbers that you are claiming?

Cost. No matter how many people use those trains, that line will run at a loss, as in order to make the route profitable the fares would have to rise to a level that would put people off using the train.

It goes to show how busy certain journeys are, on a branchline that has around 135,000 passengers a year (i.e. the total of arriving and departing), spread over about half a dozen return journeys a day with no significantly busy stations until you get into the Middlesbrough commuter market (i.e. Nunthorpe), yes.

Call it thirtysomething passengers on the average arrival/departure?

But the point that people keep missing is that, if you accept that certain journeys are very busy (four coaches required on Saturday leisure market in the summer holidays, regular standing) then that means that there are going to be a lot of journeys with below average passenger numbers, i.e. a three coach Hydrogen train will be able to cope with the vast majority of services over the year (which is surely the point of this thread) - you may need to run a couple of four coach DMUs on handful of days a year - but the 135,000 passengers a year are disproportionately using a small number of journeys - a three coach Hygroden train sounds like it'll be absolutely fine, with plenty of seats spare on most journeys.

I don't think anyone has tried disputing that on quieter days a 3 car hydrogen train will be sufficient. We're simply making the point that there are a large number of days per year, many more than the official usage figures would make you think, that a 3 car unit will not be adequate.

 

[Halifaxlad]

It would make much more sense economically to divert the line after Nunthorpe to Guisborough, mothball the section from the former junction to Battersby, and lease Battersby to Grosmont to the NYMR for tourist operation, and two platforms with some extended double track in Guisborough should enable 2 trains per hour to Middlesbrough.

Great Ayton to Nunthorpe would be served permanently by replacement bus from the town centre, with the current station mothballed if it cannot be sold, and a bus connecting Guisborough to Whitby express. Battery trains could then serve both Guisborough and Saltburn on the same diagrams if necessary.

This would be significantly more successful at attracting people to public transport and significantly cheaper. Of course for political reasons it's essentially impossible.

are you suggesting letting NYMR take over the section from Grosmont to Whitby ?

It could be steam instead of hydrogen!

 

[The Ham]

During school holidays and on many summer weekends, yes. Obviously that isn't the case during the winter.


Cost. No matter how many people use those trains, that line will run at a loss, as in order to make the route profitable the fares would have to rise to a level that would put people off using the train.


I don't think anyone has tried disputing that on quieter days a 3 car hydrogen train will be sufficient. We're simply making the point that there are a large number of days per year, many more than the official usage figures would make you think, that a 3 car unit will not be adequate.

Longer trains are cheaper (per passenger) to run than shorter. As although the leasing and maintenance costs increase the driver/guard costs don't.

It used to be that 1/3 of costs were leasing, lets say that on 2 coach trains it's 20% to account for the high staff costs). If we use the old (about a decade old) figure of £110,000 per year per coach for a DMU, that means that each 2 coach train costs £1.1 million/year.

Now if we increase that to a 3 coach train the cost probably increases to about £1.3 million.

If the train is that little bit less busy on more services so that the guard can more reliably do ticket checks they'd only need to increase ticket sales from 135,000 to 160,000 to increase ticket sales by the same percent as costs have increased.

Even allowing for 6 services a day and 300 days a year that's then only an average of 45/service for the increased passenger numbers.

That means for every train which is then so full that the guard can't get through which has 3 coaches there would be 3 other trains with no one onboard.

As such (and based on what others have said about usage) chances are the longer trains would mean more ticket checks, which would mean quite a bit more revenue; even if that did result in less passengers overall.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Just for sake of completeness, here is the queue for the midday departure from Whitby. The arrival as usual for a Saturday we packed. View attachment 101412

How many people can you count in that photo? Not enough to fill a two-car train with 150 passengers.

 

[Harpers Tate]

How many people can you count in that photo? Not enough to fill a two-car train with 150 passengers.

Right - but
a) that is a lunchtime departure FROM the resort, which is hardly the peak flow; so I'd suggest it indicates that even in the wrong direction, at the wrong time, there are still good numbers
b) and it is clearly taken before the arrival of the inbound unit; it seems plausible that others would arrive between the photo time and the actual departure.
c) and we don't see the loading of the inbound (although Skipness states it was "packed" - and it probably was).
d) and you can't "size" a train based on only one leg of its return journey

 

[Starmill]

Right - but
a) that is a lunchtime departure FROM the resort, which is hardly the peak flow; so I'd suggest it indicates that even in the wrong direction, at the wrong time, there are still good numbers
b) and it is clearly taken before the arrival of the inbound unit; it seems plausible that others would arrive between the photo time and the actual departure.
c) and we don't see the loading of the inbound (although Skipness states it was "packed" - and it probably was).
d) and you can't "size" a train based on only one leg of its return journey

It's almost as if a single photograph, or a single individual report of a "busy" train to the eyes of one person, is, in fact, not informative of anything at all.

 

[yorksrob]

It's almost as if a single photograph, or a single individual report of a "busy" train to the eyes of one person, is, in fact, not informative of anything at all.

We can't tell whether the photograph is an accurate portrayal of the situation on the incoming train because we don't know how many more people have caught the train since the picture was taken, particularly since the train hadn't even arrived yet.

That's rather different from several people on different occasions reporting witnessing/experiencing full and standing trains.

 

[The Ham]

Right - but
a) that is a lunchtime departure FROM the resort, which is hardly the peak flow; so I'd suggest it indicates that even in the wrong direction, at the wrong time, there are still good numbers
b) and it is clearly taken before the arrival of the inbound unit; it seems plausible that others would arrive between the photo time and the actual departure.
c) and we don't see the loading of the inbound (although Skipness states it was "packed" - and it probably was).
d) and you can't "size" a train based on only one leg of its return journey

However we come back to the point that that there's got to be a LOT of unrecorded (presumably ticketless) travel.

Based on all the recorded passenger numbers over the 42 days of the school summer with ~270 people on each train (overloading a 3 coach train) you'd only need 6 trains in each direction to carry the annual flows.

Of course that's not what happens, and so the recorded numbers are clearly at odds with happens.

As such either the station useage isn't tallying with the tickets sold, or there's a lot of people traveling for free.

If the latter is true then chances are if not ticket checks were undertaken then the extra income would make it more likely that longer trains would be provided.

 

[Starmill]

We can't tell whether the photograph is an accurate portrayal of the situation on the incoming train because we don't know how many more people have caught the train since the picture was taken, particularly since the train hadn't even arrived yet.

That's rather different from several people on different occasions reporting witnessing/experiencing full and standing trains.

By definition it's more likely you'll be on a busy train than a quiet one. So it doesn't really tell us anything.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Right - but
a) that is a lunchtime departure FROM the resort, which is hardly the peak flow; so I'd suggest it indicates that even in the wrong direction, at the wrong time, there are still good numbers
b) and it is clearly taken before the arrival of the inbound unit; it seems plausible that others would arrive between the photo time and the actual departure.
c) and we don't see the loading of the inbound (although Skipness states it was "packed" - and it probably was).
d) and you can't "size" a train based on only one leg of its return journey

All good points, but I notice an umbrella and those passengers look bedraggled, so it might be that more visitors than usual were going home early.

 

[zwk500]

We can't tell whether the photograph is an accurate portrayal of the situation on the incoming train because we don't know how many more people have caught the train since the picture was taken, particularly since the train hadn't even arrived yet.

That's rather different from several people on different occasions reporting witnessing/experiencing full and standing trains.

Tbh the witness reports from 'several people' are not any more informative, because they are still snapshots. What you would need would be for somebody to ride on the entire service, all day, and to do so regularly over a sustained period. Something in the order of 2 times a week for 4-6 weeks.

 

[Harpers Tate]

Surely what is at issue here isn't average loadings; nor lowest loadings (eg in the wrong direction at the wrong time of year at the wrong time of day and day of the week). What the "service" needs to be able to cater for, when necessary, is peak loadings, isn't it?

I mean: nobody would look at those 10- and 12-coach trains rammed full heading into London in the morning (nor out in the evening) and look at the fresh-air carrying return trips - and decide that 6 coaches was on average enough - would they?

 

[zwk500]

Surely what is at issue here isn't average loadings; nor lowest loadings (eg in the wrong direction at the wrong time of year at the wrong time of day and day of the week). What the "service" needs to be able to cater for, when necessary, is peak loadings, isn't it?

I mean: nobody would look at those 10- and 12-coach trains rammed full heading into London in the morning (nor out in the evening) and look at the fresh-air carrying return trips - and decide that 6 coaches was on average enough - would they?

I think they usually take the 80th or 90th Centile. Obviously for heavily unbalanced loading such as peak time commuters there'll be a certain amount of common sense applied.

 

[The Ham]

Surely what is at issue here isn't average loadings; nor lowest loadings (eg in the wrong direction at the wrong time of year at the wrong time of day and day of the week). What the "service" needs to be able to cater for, when necessary, is peak loadings, isn't it?

I mean: nobody would look at those 10- and 12-coach trains rammed full heading into London in the morning (nor out in the evening) and look at the fresh-air carrying return trips - and decide that 6 coaches was on average enough - would they?

Other than the trains which run to sidings there's few trains out of London in the morning peak which remain quiet for long (if at all).

Whilst peak flow should be catered for, only up to a point. If all 135,000 recorded passengers traveled in the 6 weeks of the school summer holidays then 3 coach trains would struggle so you might run 4 coach trains.

However you'd then not run any trains the rest of the time as there'd be no one to use them.

That is unless the number of recorded passengers is wrong. However that's likely linked to sold tickets, so should there be many more ticket checks?

 

[tbtc]

We can't tell whether the photograph is an accurate portrayal of the situation on the incoming train because we don't know how many more people have caught the train since the picture was taken, particularly since the train hadn't even arrived yet.

That's rather different from several people on different occasions reporting witnessing/experiencing full and standing trains.

I'm sure that there are some full/standing trains - just not as "often" as you seem to experience them

Put it this way, the figures show an average of 135,000 passengers a year at Whitby over the past five years (that's arrivals and departures, i.e. 67,500 return journeys, so 1,300 departing passengers a week), so that means either:

1. This figure is broadly accurate and therefore around 185 departing passengers a day, so each "full and standing" DMU is equivalent to an entire day of passengers
2. This figure is pretty inaccurate, in which case I'd love to know what the true figure is - obviously we're being told on this thread that Whitby trains are so busy that it's physically impossible for Conductors to squeeze down them, and anyway there's a conspiracy because Northern want to cut services even though they could presumably make millions if they ever got around to doing revenue blocks at Whitby!

I'm in the first camp of people - I'm guessing you're in the second?

 

[Neptune]

I'm sure that there are some full/standing trains - just not as "often" as you seem to experience them

Put it this way, the figures show an average of 135,000 passengers a year at Whitby over the past five years (that's arrivals and departures, i.e. 67,500 return journeys, so 1,300 departing passengers a week), so that means either:

1. This figure is broadly accurate and therefore around 185 departing passengers a day, so each "full and standing" DMU is equivalent to an entire day of passengers
2. This figure is pretty inaccurate, in which case I'd love to know what the true figure is - obviously we're being told on this thread that Whitby trains are so busy that it's physically impossible for Conductors to squeeze down them, and anyway there's a conspiracy because Northern want to cut services even though they could presumably make millions if they ever got around to doing revenue blocks at Whitby!

I'm in the first camp of people - I'm guessing you're in the second?

I seem to remember a similar claim over packed out S&C services all year round a few months ago. The reality is of course that there are a few busy trains during the peak times of the year (summer and Xmas) but mostly they are way under capacity (I work the route all year round at all times of day so am in a position to give a more accurate reading of the situation).

I pretty much imagine that this is the same on the Whitby route so will take most of what is said with a pinch of salt.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm sure that there are some full/standing trains - just not as "often" as you seem to experience them

Put it this way, the figures show an average of 135,000 passengers a year at Whitby over the past five years (that's arrivals and departures, i.e. 67,500 return journeys, so 1,300 departing passengers a week), so that means either:

1. This figure is broadly accurate and therefore around 185 departing passengers a day, so each "full and standing" DMU is equivalent to an entire day of passengers
2. This figure is pretty inaccurate, in which case I'd love to know what the true figure is - obviously we're being told on this thread that Whitby trains are so busy that it's physically impossible for Conductors to squeeze down them, and anyway there's a conspiracy because Northern want to cut services even though they could presumably make millions if they ever got around to doing revenue blocks at Whitby!

I'm in the first camp of people - I'm guessing you're in the second?

That's around 185 passengers a day leaving Whitby by those figures.

The capacity of a 156 is 163 (according to Wiki) and if you've ever encountered the 16:00 on a weekday, that's pretty much taken up by the schoolkids. If you add in day trippers, local travellers in the other unit on that train, plus those coming back on the evening train, plus any who are travelling outwards in the morning, then that 185 passengers leaving Whitby a day looks extremely ropey to me.

Put it another way, I've only encountered a full and standing train once between Middlesborough and York (due to a football match) yet that's not taken as a reason why the route shouldn't have a decent hourly service. What is so special about the Whitby line that the fact that it isn't full and standing every hour of every day, is somehow justification for it having a deeply inadequate service that most other routes wouldn't put up with ?

I seem to remember a similar claim over packed out S&C services all year round a few months ago. The reality is of course that there are a few busy trains during the peak times of the year (summer and Xmas) but mostly they are way under capacity (I work the route all year round at all times of day so am in a position to give a more accurate reading of the situation).

I pretty much imagine that this is the same on the Whitby route so will take most of what is said with a pinch of salt.

That's an interesting point, and funnily enough the S&C is another route that I travel quite often.

I have to say, it's a while since I've been on a full and standing train on the route, although I have seen it a few times pre-pandemic. Occasions I recall were a Sunday service towards Leeds pre-pandemic, a morning Saturday service towards Carlisle full of walkers and towards Appleby on the day of the fair. To me, a busy train on the S&C tends to be more likely to be "comfortably" busy, rather than full and standing, but the route does seem to be better resourced in terms of rolling stock, and of course it's timetable is much better, being roughly 2-hourly.

 

[zwk500]

Put it another way, I've only encountered a full and standing train once between Middlesborough and York (due to a football match) yet that's not taken as a reason why the route shouldn't have a decent hourly service.

You frequently fail to acknowledge that your individual experiences of individual lines may well, for all their regularity, be atypical.

There's also the fact that passenger numbers alone are not the sole determinant of the level of service provided.

 

[yorksrob]

You frequently fail to acknowledge that your individual experiences of individual lines may well, for all their regularity, be atypical.

There's also the fact that passenger numbers alone are not the sole determinant of the level of service provided.

Well, I can only speak from my own experience. You frequenrtly fail to acknowledge that when I note that certain services on the line are very busy, other forum members corroborate my experience.

We know very well that passenger numbers are not the sole determinant of service provided, but if not whart, and is that determinant the correct one. For example, we know that until the 1990's, the Whitby line had a far better all-day round service, which was cut back ruthlessly to make Regional Railways' finances look better in the run up to John Major's privatisation experiment. The resultant poor level of service on the line seems, to some extent have been "baked in" ever since, but one has to ask whether that exercise is a suitable determinant for the level of service provided in 2021.

 

[zwk500]

Well, I can only speak from my own experience. You frequenrtly fail to acknowledge that when I note that certain services on the line are very busy, other forum members corroborate my experience.

As it happens, when others have backed up your assertion I have looked into the matter myself - you may remember the table I found for you on the S&C. However, by definition, if a certain service is busy more people are likely to experience it as such and there's a big difference between the odd service or two being busy (e.g. an early morning to Whitby and late afternoon back) and services being consistently and reliably overfilled throughout the day.

We know very well that passenger numbers are not the sole determinant of service provided, but if not whart, and is that determinant the correct one.

Many things: Operational feasibility, social value, political capital (sadly), journey opportunities, additional operating/staff/stock/etc costs, network resilience impacts, network capacity utilisation, and required infrastructure. Among others. No single factor is the 'correct' one. Passenger numbers tend to rank quite high in the decision making, but if there isn't a spare unit and the only way to release one would be to cut somebody else's frequency or train length, then why should Peter be robbed to pay Paul?

 

[yorksrob]

As it happens, when others have backed up your assertion I have looked into the matter myself - you may remember the table I found for you on the S&C. However, by definition, if a certain service is busy more people are likely to experience it as such and there's a big difference between the odd service or two being busy (e.g. an early morning to Whitby and late afternoon back) and services being consistently and reliably overfilled throughout the day.

Many things: Operational feasibility, social value, political capital (sadly), journey opportunities, additional operating/staff/stock/etc costs, network resilience impacts, network capacity utilisation, and required infrastructure. Among others. No single factor is the 'correct' one. Passenger numbers tend to rank quite high in the decision making, but if there isn't a spare unit and the only way to release one would be to cut somebody else's frequency or train length, then why should Peter be robbed to pay Paul?

Whatever you've looked up doesn't negate the factv that there other posters to corroborate my experience.

A couple of years ago when the line had it's own diagram, I used to see the pacer on a Saturday stabled at Middlesbrough in the morning and in the evening when I returned. It rarely seemed to be used to strengthen summer saturday services which were predictably full and standing.

Have a look at the early 1990's timetable and ask yourself, if such a service was justified then, why has it been deemed acceptable to have a vastly inferior one in the intervening years when passenger numbers broadly have doubled.