Victoria has quadruple running lines and 4 through platforms, so essentially it has twice the capacity of the Castlefield line, and this use can be optimised by running through trains on the ex L&Y routes from Wigan and Bolton to Rochdale and beyond and running through trains on the ex-LNW Chat Moss line to Stalybridge and beyond.
The Castlefield line needs to accommodate all services from the CLC line to Liverpool, which in my opinion should comprise 2 tph stopping services to terminate in platform 5 at Oxford Road and 2 tph semi-fast from Liverpool to Sheffield and beyond. This leaves about 6 paths per hour for passenger trains via the link to the Chat Moss line and Salford Crescent, which in my view should be run only by electric trains. These services should therefore be those running to Bolton/Preston and beyond (such as the 2 tph Blackpool service, but not the long-distance WCML services because of poor punctuality) or the Chat Moss line to Liverpool. Unfortunately, the Castlefield line needs to have freight paths (up to 2 tph) because of lack of alternative access routes to the freight terminals at Trafford Park.
The key ways (in no particular order) to solve Manchester's rail problems are:
- Constructing a 30 minute (2 tph) service pattern to reduce the tangle of different services running through these congested routes. For example, the 2 tph to Southport should all run to Victoria and extend to Rochdale and beyond; passengers from this line can connect at Salford Crescent for trains to Piccadilly and the Airport.
- Separating the ex-L&Y and ex-LNW services running through Victoria to use platforms 5/6 and 3/4 respectively.
- Making use of Victoria platforms 1/2 for the 2 tph stopping services (maximum 4 car) from Huddersfield, with the 2 tph semi-fast TPE Standedge line services not running west of Manchester terminating at Piccadilly platforms 1/2/3 instead.
- Removing all regular services from the Ordsall curve, because use of this white elephant makes profligate use of Manchester's central stations (passing through all 5 of them).
- Removing all long-distance trains to the Airport, including if necessary facing down local authorities outwith North-West England demanding through trains from their areas to it.
- In the longer-term, freeing up capacity at Manchester Piccadilly by converting the line to Rose Hill via Reddish North to Metrolink and linking it to tram services currently terminating at Piccadilly.
This is somewhat sensible in that for historical reasons the L&Y and L&NW lines should not cross each other and that the CLC has no access to Victoria. In reality the MSJ&AR Castlefield line just needs to have 4 tracks like Victoria. The freight terminal needs to be somewhere other than Trafford Park, accessed from the south from somewhere on the 4 track WCML in the Stockport direction.
The new electrification from Liverpool, Bolton and Blackpool North is extremely useful in running electric trains where it exists, but there needs to be more of it, particularly to Stalybridge, Wigan North Western, Southport, Windermere, Buxton via Hazel Grove and Rose Hill Marple via Guide Bridge, to eliminate services which run mostly under the wires.
Likewise the Ordsall Chord has been built, albeit incorrectly, but it is now needed to provide direct connections from Victoria to Piccadilly for everyone who’s service has been rerouted. Perhaps the Airport could be served exclusively by 2tph from the Ordsall Chord and another 6-8tph from a specific platform at Piccadilly.
What you do with the Great Central lines east of Manchester doesn’t make sense, as services to the MB&MR station Rose Hill run via Guide Bridge. Reddish North is served by the services to New Mills Central and Sheffield via the Midland Railway. Converting any of this to Metrolink operation and running a 6 minute frequency will create a new bottleneck and make it impossible to run any trains to New Mills Central, Sheffield, Hadfield or Glossop, or from Piccadilly to Stalybridge and Hull.
However electrifying the lines from Guide Bridge to Stalybridge and Rose Hill Marple removes all but one DMU per week in each direction on a Saturday morning, as long as the Hull service isn’t run with 185s and electrifying from Hazel Grove to Buxton means the Hazel Grove electric service can be provided by trains to Buxton that run into the main shed at Piccadilly, taking them off Castlefield.
What exactly is your opinion of the Class 769 units as a supposed alternative to electrification? Once the emergency timetable reduction has been implemented as a short term measure, angering people from across the whole of the north of England, the focus needs to shift onto what infrastructure works will be undertaken to resolve what are fundamentally infrastructure constraints. All of these great Victorian companies who ran trains to Manchester, the Lancashire & Yorkshire, London & North Western, Midland and Great Central Railways, would not have thought twice at rebuilding congested infrastructure to provide the required capacity, so why today is there this inability to solve basic problems?