As I and others have commented before, the main problem is politicians, who all want here, there and everywhere else to have through services to / from the Airport, when the most sensible idea would be to have dedicated shuttles between the city centre and the airport (as happens with London to/from Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted).
I largely agree with this, but I think there is a case for regular services to some of the towns around Manchester. There are several groups of people who may need to travel to Manchester airport:
- Airport workers, who may live in/around central Manchester but also in places like Warrington, Bolton, Wigan etc
- Frequent flyers (eg, those travelling for business).The vast majority of these people will also be from the Manchester area
- "Bucket and spade" type travellers going on holiday. Again, mostly Manchester based as Leeds/Newcastle/Liverpool airports offer a wide range of leisure services.
- Long-haul travellers, whch could be coming from across the north.
I don't have any facts to back this up, but I sense that the first two groups listed above are much more likely to use the train. With that assumption, maybe something like this would be better than the status quo:
2x Crewe - Airport - Piccadilly
2x Airport - Castlefield - Warrington - Liverpool
2x Airport - Castlefield - Victoria - Rochdale
2x Airport - Castlefield - Victoria - Stalybridge
2x Airport - Castlefield - Bolton - Wigan - Southport
That's 10x Styal line services, of which 8 continue onto Castlefield, plus 1ph freight. Crucially through, these could all skip-stop along the Styal line (2-3 stations each) as there are no 'express' services. So the timetable could be much more evenly spaced, removing the current gaps of 15 mins+.
Most of the towns close to Manchester (Bolton, Wigan, Warrington, Rochdale etc) would have a half-hourly service to the airport and there would be a clock-face 4ph service from Victoria, allowing easy connections to long-distance services.
Added to that, there would be 2x Sheffield-Liverpool services and 2x Oxford Road stoppers (probably to Blackpool) through Castlefield, giving a total of 13ph, which I believe is about the upper limit of what is possible?
The Scotland and Lake District TPE services, TfW service (ideally combined with a Chester-Victoria-Leeds) and the 4ph TPE 'fasts' from Leeds would all run via and/or terminate at Victoria. Granted this would stretch platform capacity at Victoria, but adding a turnback/siding to the east is possibly the easiest of all the possible infrastructure additions proposed?
In an ideal world, the TPE services could even join up to form a Scotland/Lakes - Manchester - Leeds - York routing. Although that is perhaps not the most sensible from a reliability point of view
