Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[liam456]

​

​

​

Well this had better turn out to be the case, Rees-Mogg. All restrictions GONE. And this "terminus day" had better be ON TIME on 19th July and not DELAYED!

What a surprisingly apt railway analogy by a politician!

 

[quantinghome]

What a surprisingly apt railway analogy by a politician!

Presumably he means the main line not the LU circle line...

 

[liam456]

Presumably he means the main line not the LU circle line...

I'm certainly hoping so!

 

[quantinghome]

Vaccines this effective for a respiratory illness are very atypical - influenza vaccines given out every year are normally only at 40-50%.

Indeed. But all the data so far indicates that a double jab is very effective. They are based on pretty new tech.

 

[kristiang85]

Indeed. But all the data so far indicates that a double jab is very effective. They are based on pretty new tech.

Yes, but the point I was making was that you were saying that they still aren't fully effective, and my point was that we happily live alongside a partially vaccinated population for influenza at much less efficacy rates.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think it is common knowledge that vaccines are effective but not 100% so. A high level of prevention up at the 95%+ level would still result in a further significant wave of fatalities (in the tens of thousands) if the virus were to spread to everyone. The solution to preventing this is it spend the next few weeks sticking as many vaccines into people's arms as possible to get herd immunity, or close to it, and prevent the virus from spreading. 19 July also happily coincides with schools breaking up for summer holidays which will reduce the risk of spreading among the age group most likely to be infected.

And then when July 19 comes around, we need to vaccinate more, or vaccinate a third, fourth, fifth time....

No sorry. The vaccines are doing their job, they have been doing their jobs, so there is no excuse for not relaxing further immediately. And all these additional delays are costing, a price that the you, me, the NHS will have to pay well into the future. A few more weeks isn't going to make a massive difference in terms of vaccines, we are nearly at 80% 1st dose & nearly 60% 2nd dose, one of the best performers in the world yet people want "a bit more time". Well the people that think they are getting off scott free....

 

[duncanp]

Presumably he means the main line not the LU circle line...

Even the LUL Circle line is not a proper circle these days, and so it has two terminii.

Now if you were talking about the Glasgow Subway on the other hand, that is a different matter, and in some ways the comparison is rather apt, because Nicola Sturgeon seems keen on keeping some restrictions indefinitely. (eg, Nightclubs still closed even in Scottish level 0)

 

[VauxhallandI]

If masks were so effective why haven't all these people (hospital porters et al) been wearing them up to now?

Its laughable really how obsessed with them some have become; next they will be claiming they cure Cancer.

 

[Darandio]

Let's not forget that decisions were claimed to be no longer made purely on cases. As we are going specifically going looking for cases we are obviously finding them but as expected with the vaccine program hospitalisations and deaths aren't following the same trends as before.

That doesn't seem to be bothering the scaremongering scientists or media who are now completely fixated on cases as a means of continuing to batter the public into submission. If you keep telling these people enough times that even cases are dangerous and everyone should stay hidden inside then it seems to me these people are ready to believe them and support any measures necessary.

I've played ball so far by sticking to rules and soaked up the lies by taking a vaccine billed as my way out of this. Next Monday the mask comes off for good and i'll await my second dose. They can shove any other restrictions up their arse.

 

[bramling]

​

​

​

Well this had better turn out to be the case, Rees-Mogg. All restrictions GONE. And this "terminus day" had better be ON TIME on 19th July and not DELAYED!

Unfortunately with the various last-minute u-turns we’ve seen, who knows what will happen until it does.

I have a feeling masks will still be here after whatever date is “freedom day”, unfortunately, especially shops and trains.

 

[quantinghome]

And then when July 19 comes around, we need to vaccinate more, or vaccinate a third, fourth, fifth time....

No sorry. The vaccines are doing their job, they have been doing their jobs, so there is no excuse for not relaxing further immediately. And all these additional delays are costing, a price that the you, me, the NHS will have to pay well into the future. A few more weeks isn't going to make a massive difference in terms of vaccines, we are nearly at 80% 1st dose & nearly 60% 2nd dose, one of the best performers in the world yet people want "a bit more time". Well the people that think they are getting off scott free....

Vaccines work in two ways - providing high levels of protection (but not 100%) to individuals, and also stopping the spread of infection if a sufficiently high proportion of the population are vaccinated.

We are clearly not there yet with the second part as we are seeing another wave of infection. Had we had better border controls we wouldn't have seen this rise in infection and we'd be able to remove restrictions. Unfortunately, thanks to Johnson's faffing around with border controls, we now have a more transmissible variant to deal with, so we need to get to a higher level of vaccinations for herd immunity to work. Given the most onerous restrictions are already removed it makes sense to get the vaccinations to 95% 1st dose and 80% 2nd dose.

Other measures beyond that are unlikely to make much of a difference and further delay beyond 19 July may be counterproductive as it would push the exit wave into the late autumn / winter which could increase the number of deaths.

 

[Purple Orange]

I'm sure you'll be saddened to learn that the human race isn't immortal and people will sadly die. Nearly 2,000 people die a day on average in the UK. At this point, I assume anyone with your viewpoint is on a wind-up, but if you're serious, then you clearly have no idea about the negative implications of lockdown. I'm absolutely convinced that a hypothetical fourth lockdown would cost more lives than it saved.

This is where the risk to an increase in deaths over and above the average needs to be considered. It’s actually about 1,500 per day on average, but we need to consider seasonality too (I.e. it could be about 1,400 per day in the summer months and 1,800 in the winter months). The UK typically sees 550,000 deaths per annum and it rarely varies significantly from that number. What I am interested to know is what are the total deaths between March 2020 and March 2021 and how does that compare to the average of 550,000 deaths?

 

[bramling]

If masks were so effective why haven't all these people (hospital porters et al) been wearing them up to now?

Its laughable really how obsessed with them some have become; next they will be claiming they cure Cancer.

Masks have a cult following, they’re a symbol of respect, rather than a practical measure, and the government has allowed - at times encouraged - this.

It is interesting that in our hotel at the moment I’d say a good proportion (certainly half or more) of the oldies aren’t wearing masks in communal areas of the hotel. Having said that, in my own town it was never really the older people who were/are the mask obsessives, more middle-age people. I get the feeling the older people really hate masks.

Indeed on Facebook when the K types start preaching about wearing masks outside, it seems to get shot down by older people.

 

[Cdd89]

We are clearly not there yet with the second part as we are seeing another wave of infection. Had we had better border controls we wouldn't have seen this rise in infection and we'd be able to remove restrictions.

Just to confirm, are you supporting Labour’s position that every country should be on the red list preemptively in case a variant were to emerge?

I think we can all agree that restricting India earlier might have helped delay things. But the only way I saw proposed of doing that was blanket restrictions, and I don’t see that this delay (which I would argue is unnecessary in the first place) is so bad that it needed such awful measures imposed to avoid it. And let’s be clear, banning international travel is truly awful and needs very strong justification.

 

[Purple Orange]

For those who are interested, the ONS have said there are 103,857 excess deaths during the period of the pandemic in England & Wales.

“Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 4 June 2021 was 764,444 in England and Wales. Of the deaths registered by 4 June 2021, 140,185 (18.3%) mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. During this period, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 103,857 deaths.”

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[Bantamzen]

Vaccines work in two ways - providing high levels of protection (but not 100%) to individuals, and also stopping the spread of infection if a sufficiently high proportion of the population are vaccinated.

We are clearly not there yet with the second part as we are seeing another wave of infection. Had we had better border controls we wouldn't have seen this rise in infection and we'd be able to remove restrictions. Unfortunately, thanks to Johnson's faffing around with border controls, we now have a more transmissible variant to deal with, so we need to get to a higher level of vaccinations for herd immunity to work. Given the most onerous restrictions are already removed it makes sense to get the vaccinations to 95% 1st dose and 80% 2nd dose.

Other measures beyond that are unlikely to make much of a difference and further delay beyond 19 July may be counterproductive as it would push the exit wave into the late autumn / winter which could increase the number of deaths.

We are not where exactly? Cases will continue to fall and rise even when most are vaccinated. What matters is the impact on the NHS, and vaccines are clearly having a massive effect. If the vast majority of people getting the virus are getting no more than feeling a bit off and having a headache, we should not be imposing restrictions that are literally draining money that could otherwise prop up vaccine & treatment efforts. Our obsession with infection (note they should not be called cases, only those with symptoms should be called as such) has led to panicked decisions which have just caused more and more problem.

As for borders, well I thought most people had come to realise that we cannot shut our borders, and viruses don't recognise the lines in the sand we draw. I mean its been discussed to death on multiple threads here.

 

[quantinghome]

Just to confirm, are you supporting Labour’s position that every country should be on the red list preemptively in case a variant were to emerge?

I think we can all agree that restricting India earlier might have helped delay things. But the only way I saw proposed of doing that was blanket restrictions, and I don’t see that this delay (which I would argue is unnecessary in the first place) is so bad that it needed such awful measures imposed to avoid it. And let’s be clear, banning international travel is truly awful and needs very strong justification.

The question is whether the Amber list is working - it doesn't seem to be. The government has stated that travel to amber should be only in extreme circumstances (e.g. severe illness of family member), not business or leisure, but this doesn't seem to have been adhered to. On the list of things I find awful about the current situation, not being able to travel internationally is quite low down to be honest.

In the case of India, both Pakistan and Bangladesh had been put on the red list despite having lower case rates than India, so there doesn't seem to have been any logic to the decision.

 

[kez19]

Yes I am sure. I agree that it was a large crowd, but if I were in a large crowd, I wouldn't presume to assess the size of the crowd - and whether it was 1,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000.

As for polls, I'm sure some are designed to produce results. But I observed the reactions to the pollsters errors in both the 2015 election and the Brexit referendum, and their sensitivity to where their models have weaknesses. One of those weaknesses has to do with how they adjust for the representativeness of the samples, and on Brexit they called a close vote wrong but within the margin of error on their numbers. Election polls - here and in the US - are difficult because of the way the country is divided up into constituencies.

They aren't perfect, but if you're going to substitute your view for what they say, you need to come up with something better than "my mate said".

so which view would you like them to say then? Other than “my mate said”? It’s pretty damning that the media can make up crowd numbers without research but because a fellow poster had a friend go to one, but let’s not believe them?

I rather trust friends over media anyday, this has all became some sort of reality show the media is playing out - think of this as Big Brother on a wider scale, yes probably hard to believe but it’s becoming reality.

Isn’t it strange let’s go by one example people mentioned BGT had gone Black Mirror on us (I’ve never watched either shows but yet what was fantasy in one is well came true).

There was also an Anime called The Big O, which I have on DVD but there has been a few times in that programme that make you question things, there was one line I remember and it was close to the bone - we are all actors and the world is a stage - you may read that line and laugh or say it’s just a TV show, indeed it can be stated as pure fiction but yet reading between the lines I differ.

What was fiction is becoming more reality and in time minds are waking up, I have and I’ll say it again this is the great awakening right in front of us (I am no longer afraid but I believe in karma is coming for those in power and that downfall will come with a bang)

 

[quantinghome]

We are not where exactly? Cases will continue to fall and rise even when most are vaccinated. What matters is the impact on the NHS, and vaccines are clearly having a massive effect. If the vast majority of people getting the virus are getting no more than feeling a bit off and having a headache, we should not be imposing restrictions that are literally draining money that could otherwise prop up vaccine & treatment efforts. Our obsession with infection (note they should not be called cases, only those with symptoms should be called as such) has led to panicked decisions which have just caused more and more problem.

As for borders, well I thought most people had come to realise that we cannot shut our borders, and viruses don't recognise the lines in the sand we draw. I mean its been discussed to death on multiple threads here.

I'm not worried about infection numbers. But hospitalisations are now also rising and this might lead to a significant growth in fatalities - we don't yet have enough data to say. So I think it's sensible to wait a few weeks to see whether you're right (and I hope you are), before removing the last few remaining restrictions. And in the meantime we can get millions more people vaccinated.

 

[roversfan2001]

For those who are interested, the ONS have said there are 103,857 excess deaths during the period of the pandemic in England & Wales.

“Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 4 June 2021 was 764,444 in England and Wales. Of the deaths registered by 4 June 2021, 140,185 (18.3%) mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. During this period, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 103,857 deaths.”

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

www.ons.gov.uk

Excess deaths aren't typically measured over 16 months so it's frustrating to see the ONS do such a thing. It'd be interesting to see the excess death figures for 2021, given the low number of all-cause deaths over the past few months.

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm not worried about infection numbers. But hospitalisations are now also rising and this might lead to a significant growth in fatalities - we don't yet have enough data to say. So I think it's sensible to wait a few weeks to see whether you're right (and I hope you are), before removing the last few remaining restrictions. And in the meantime we can get millions more people vaccinated.

Hospitalisation are rising at a much slower ratio than infections, even accounting for the lag between. And the NHS have been reporting that most cases have been less severe, have generally affected those without vaccinations, resulted in shorter stays & fewer deaths. We could of course sit around for the next goodness knows how many months for enough data to satisfy analysists, but we cannot procrastinate forever. At some point we have to lean on the assumption that the vaccine will do what we want it to do. Otherwise as I've said we risk funding of future public services for years to come, destroy even more businesses & jobs, and frankly erode confidence in the vaccines themselves, which is starting to happen.

 

[bramling]

We are not where exactly? Cases will continue to fall and rise even when most are vaccinated. What matters is the impact on the NHS, and vaccines are clearly having a massive effect. If the vast majority of people getting the virus are getting no more than feeling a bit off and having a headache, we should not be imposing restrictions that are literally draining money that could otherwise prop up vaccine & treatment efforts. Our obsession with infection (note they should not be called cases, only those with symptoms should be called as such) has led to panicked decisions which have just caused more and more problem.

As for borders, well I thought most people had come to realise that we cannot shut our borders, and viruses don't recognise the lines in the sand we draw. I mean its been discussed to death on multiple threads here.

What we need to know is how many people are now catching Covid AND requiring hospital treatment AND are in a state where their life is genuinely in danger directly due to Covid.

The figures we see on the likes of the TV news don’t really give us this info.

The death figures as given are meaningless because they don’t tell us who died *because* of Covid, just who died *with* it. Likewise the infection rate is no longer relevant thanks to the effect of the vaccines.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Hospitalisation are rising at a much slower ratio than infections, even accounting for the lag between. And the NHS have been reporting that most cases have been less severe, have generally affected those without vaccinations, resulted in shorter stays & fewer deaths. We could of course sit around for the next goodness knows how many months for enough data to satisfy analysists, but we cannot procrastinate forever. At some point we have to lean on the assumption that the vaccine will do what we want it to do. Otherwise as I've said we risk funding of future public services for years to come, destroy even more businesses & jobs, and frankly erode confidence in the vaccines themselves, which is starting to happen.

Indeed, I've no idea what this perfect set of numbers we are supposed to be waiting for are and I suspect neither do the people who are calling for the wait for them.

 

[bramling]

Indeed, I've no idea what this perfect set of numbers we are supposed to be waiting for are and I suspect neither do the people who are calling for the wait for them.

The politicians should at the very least be declaring what the target figures are, if they exist.

Whitty has alluded to this on occasions - the politicians need to declare what they are aiming for. Of course we won’t get that, as it involves the likes of BJ and “Hopeless Hancock” having to actually make a decision, rather than the easy get-out of claiming to follow the science.

 

[Cdd89]

The question is whether the Amber list is working - it doesn't seem to be

You have seen a significant rise in the Delta variant and blamed loose borders. In this case why have so few other Western countries imposed the measures you advocate?

As an example, the Netherlands has no mandatory quarantine for most countries, and their “Red List equivalent” is enforced home quarantine with less onerous conditions/penalties than our Amber list. Why has Delta not skyrocketed there if the sole problem is loose borders?

On the list of things I find awful about the current situation, not being able to travel internationally is quite low down to be honest

It’s a value judgment of course, but unlike many of the other things we debate about unlocking, for many people travel is essential and not a hedonistic activity.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Given the vitriol against plastic bags and straws, masks must surely be on the pollution agenda (see below for an example picture). Hopefully more studies will come out soon on the long term effects of mask fibres in lungs and breathing in your own co2 on a long term basis versus the benefits, and they will be quietly dropped.

I certainly won't be complying if we are made to wear them on public transport long term.

With what you said in mind, although I do live just exterior to the borders of what I term "the TfGM empire", I telephoned a senior manager at the TfGM main office in Greater Manchester whom I have known for many years and asked him has the TfGM policy changed with regards to the wearing of masks on buses and trams, the taping off of seats by bus operators to reduce capacity, the reduction of available seats at bus stations and TfGM announcements about such matters. He said that no change had been made and TfGM appear to look to the July 19 date as the date when considerations of change could be made. He made mention of the fact that Stagecoach Manchester have large sized posters in the lower saloon of the double-deck buses exhorting people to wear masks that over both nose and mouth and ending with the comment that spot checks are currently carried out, with the possibility of a £200 fine for non-compliance.

TfGM are very much Labour Party affiliated and the current mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, is similarly Labour Party affiliated with some looking to him as a future leader of that political party.

 

[quantinghome]

It’s a value judgment of course, but unlike many of the other things we debate about unlocking, for many people travel is essential and not a hedonistic activity.

I'm not sure we have the same definition of 'essential'. Other than a family emergency or making a permanent move to a different country, what would constitute 'essential' international travel?

 

[kristiang85]

I'm not sure we have the same definition of 'essential'. Other than a family emergency or making a permanent move to a different country, what would constitute 'essential' international travel?

An example could be my mum has bad arthritis that flares up in winter, and it always almost disppears when they have their three weeks in Spain at that time of year normally.

This year she had no respite from that.

Now, probably not essential in many eyes, but the travel made a big quality of life difference.

On a personal level, travel is my favourite hobby. I've never gone more than 4-5 months without leaving the country since I was 21. I like to walk, indulge in photography, and seek out new cultures and foods. It's what I work towards and save my money for. I've really really missed it. Now this isn't essential at all, but it made the long months of winter really hard to get through not having it or indeed being able to plan for any future trips. So there's the mental health aspect there, and we know that mental health also significantly underpins physical health. So to me, travel is quite essential for my wellbeing, but I wouldn't try to say to a border official it is essential for my health and I wouldn't say it's affected my health in any way personally, but for many in a similar position it could have quite a big effect on theirs, depending on their state of mind.

Then you need to think about people in the travel industy: if they are trying to feed their families or get by themselves, then all travel is essential to them.

 

[big_rig]

I'm not sure we have the same definition of 'essential'. Other than a family emergency or making a permanent move to a different country, what would constitute 'essential' international travel?

Is it 'essential' for people to eat cheese and crisps and drink beer? All of those things add to obesity which 'puts pressure on the NHS.' Should we have banned those things over the last year, or in general? How much should this neurotic definition of 'essential' be extended to, and for how long? I will take a wild guess and imagine that it mostly applies to activities you don't take part in.

 

[Cdd89]

I'm not sure we have the same definition of 'essential'. Other than a family emergency or making a permanent move to a different country, what would constitute 'essential' international travel?

if you remove “holidays”, almost all of it. In fact the government made a little list back in March during the short lived (but much loved) travel declaration form.

Limitations on even work travel have had a huge effect on my employer. We have lost sales as a result of the inability to offer site support in some cases. There are very few exceptions for travel to red list countries.

Less directly, how do you quantify the incremental harm caused by a prolonged period without seeing family, loved ones, or even friends? The Netherlands has an exemption from their red list equivalent for this (even without an accompanying “emergency” event).