Another new UK-Ireland speculative plan

[giblets]

Spotted in the FT, yet another plan for a tunnel between the UK and Ireland, this time it’s Grant Shapps pushing the Holyhead-Dublin route, with his hope that it would also lead to improvements on the Dublin-Belfast route.
Personally I think this route would be better than the Scotland route in terms of traffic preference/ volume. Cost might also be good, without having to build through the highlands and getting Ireland/EU to pay half!

Posted this as a new link, but appreciate a mid May want to push it into the longer Irish tunnel thread (wherever it is)

Holidays across Europe may soon be allowed, UK transport secretary hints

Grant Shapps says travellers will not have a ‘very long time to wait’ for expansion of green list

www.ft.com

 

[deltic]

The Wales/Ireland link seems to make far more sense than the Scottish/Irish one but it doesnt play well into the Union Connectivity narrative.

I'm actually a fan of Boris's Isle of Man idea. With the link coming off the WCML and M6 near Lancaster it is the only one that doesnt require huge investment on improved road and rail links to reach the tunnel portal on this side of the Irish Sea. Whether you can build a tunnel that long is a moot point.

 

[Carlisle]

Cost might also be good, without having to build through the highlands

I wouldn’t describe a reinstated Dumfries-Stranraer line as traversing the highlands, but I get what you mean

 

[eMeS]

Where would a gauge change take place?

 

[deltic]

Where would a gauge change take place?

There probably wouldn't be one. Given how dispersed Ireland's population is there is unlikely to enougth demand for services beyond Dublin.

 

[JamesT]

There probably wouldn't be one. Given how dispersed Ireland's population is there is unlikely to enougth demand for services beyond Dublin.

The Irish government has also suggested they might look at some sort of high speed railway for Belfast-Dublin-Cork. https://www.railjournal.com/passeng...estigate-belfast-dublin-cork-high-speed-line/
I would imagine that depending on how separate that would be, they might consider standard gauge which would tie in with a GB link.
There are solutions such as gauntlet track for running standard gauge and Irish gauge along the same alignment.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately Holyhead-Dublin has little to recommend it from a political aspect.

The tunnel/bridge length is almost inconsequential if it stays in comparatively shallow water.

The best option might be a road rail viaduct from near Wylfa power station to the vicinity of Ardglass, its not much longer than the Dublin route but is politically better.

Indeed, given what I just said it might even be better to proceed from Southport to Ardglass, simply because that avoids the mess that is infrastructure in NOrth Wales.

 

[Gareth]

The tunnel/bridge length is almost inconsequential if it stays in comparatively shallow water.

I'd love to believe it's that easy. If built, it'd be by far the longest tunnel in the world. If it's as straightforward as you say, it's a no-brainer and we should be cracking on with it.

 

[HSTEd]

I'd love to believe it's that easy. If built, it'd be by far the longest tunnel in the world. If it's as straightforward as you say, it's a no-brainer and we should be cracking on with it.

The only real problem is that of "who pays"

 

[HST43257]

Unfortunately I see no reason for a rail tunnel. I see no more demand than a couple of flights per day from Heathrow and Manchester. I hate to say that plane is better than train in this situation, but there’s just not enough demand for so much infrastructure, especially in a huge tunnel.

 

[Gareth]

Eh? Dublin's a massive market for many Great British airports. It certainly is for Liverpool, along with Belfast.

 

[HSTEd]

Unfortunately I see no reason for a rail tunnel. I see no more demand than a couple of flights per day from Heathrow and Manchester. I hate to say that plane is better than train in this situation, but there’s just not enough demand for so much infrastructure, especially in a huge tunnel.

Well ultimately the infrastructure you have to compare it to is the giant power generation, carbon capture and aviation fuel synthesis plant required to produce the fuel expended on the NI-UK or RoI-UK air routes.

Unless we just assume zero carbon doesn't happen.

 

[HST43257]

Well ultimately the infrastructure you have to compare it to is the giant power generation, carbon capture and aviation fuel synthesis plant required to produce the fuel expended on the NI-UK or RoI-UK air routes.

Unless we just assume zero carbon doesn't happen.

I guess we can hope it’ll happen in other places enough to make us neutral or better

 

[deltic]

Unfortunately I see no reason for a rail tunnel. I see no more demand than a couple of flights per day from Heathrow and Manchester. I hate to say that plane is better than train in this situation, but there’s just not enough demand for so much infrastructure, especially in a huge tunnel.

In 2019 to/from Dublin there were about 4.5m trips from London, 1m from Manchester 900k from Birmingham, 400k from Liverpool, 300k from Leeds ie over 7m of which the majority could fairly easily switch to rail. Plus 2.5m passengers used the ferry crossings and just under 0.5m goods vehicles on Ro-Ro ferries travelling to the Republic.

While demand would be less than the Channel Tunnel it would still be considerable

 

[class26]

Eh? Dublin's a massive market for many Great British airports. It certainly is for Liverpool, along with Belfast.

There are also numerous daily flights from Birmingham to Dublin, a large Irish community in the Midlands

 

[DanNCL]

The Wales/Ireland link seems to make far more sense than the Scottish/Irish one but it doesnt play well into the Union Connectivity narrative.

From a union connectivity point of view a link from Stranraer to Larne won't be any better than a link from Holyhead to Dublin if the SNP get Scottish independence, as it would be a case of passing through another country to reach Belfast regardless which route was used, might as well pick the one that would have the highest demand, which would be the Dublin route.

 

[camflyer]

The Wales/Ireland link seems to make far more sense than the Scottish/Irish one but it doesnt play well into the Union Connectivity narrative.

I'm actually a fan of Boris's Isle of Man idea. With the link coming off the WCML and M6 near Lancaster it is the only one that doesnt require huge investment on improved road and rail links to reach the tunnel portal on this side of the Irish Sea. Whether you can build a tunnel that long is a moot point.

Gareth Dennis did a detailed video on the various GB-Island of Ireland options and concluded that Holyhead to Dublin was the most feasible.

 

[Chester1]

The Wales/Ireland link seems to make far more sense than the Scottish/Irish one but it doesnt play well into the Union Connectivity narrative.

I'm actually a fan of Boris's Isle of Man idea. With the link coming off the WCML and M6 near Lancaster it is the only one that doesnt require huge investment on improved road and rail links to reach the tunnel portal on this side of the Irish Sea. Whether you can build a tunnel that long is a moot point.

Dublin to Holyhead would be the longest rail tunnel in the world. England to Ireland is perhaps a bit too far!

There probably wouldn't be one. Given how dispersed Ireland's population is there is unlikely to enougth demand for services beyond Dublin.

A terminus in Docklands area with through platforms to a link heading northwards might work (gauge changing after departure but before joining existing network).

Ultimately Holyhead-Dublin has little to recommend it from a political aspect.

The tunnel/bridge length is almost inconsequential if it stays in comparatively shallow water.

The best option might be a road rail viaduct from near Wylfa power station to the vicinity of Ardglass, its not much longer than the Dublin route but is politically better.

Indeed, given what I just said it might even be better to proceed from Southport to Ardglass, simply because that avoids the mess that is infrastructure in NOrth Wales.

The North Wales main line has sections that were four track that could be reinstated. Much of the route is suitable for 100 mph+ line speed. It needs new track, signalling and electrification but no new alignments.

Its about 55 miles between Dublin and Holyhead and 120 miles between Holyhead and Crewe. HS2 will be 55 minutes to Euston and 20 minutes to Manchester. Holyhead to Crewe is about 2 hours 15 minutes. The London to Dublin journey time would be under 4 hours by electrifying and adding passing loops. Spend a billion or two and close to three hours should be achievable.

In previous threads I have argued that the tunnel could pay its operating costs but never repay its capital costs. It would ultimately be a political project and our current political trend does not support it.

 

[Gareth]

Dublin to Holyhead would be the longest rail tunnel in the world.

By some distance, I presume. I'd love to believe it's feasible but I'm not convinced.

 

[Mikey C]

The advantage of a tunnel to Dublin, is that presumably Ireland/EU would pay half of the costs, whereas a tunnel to N Ireland would have to be met fully by the UK!

 

[Gareth]

A tunnel to Northern Ireland would be hell of a lot shorter too. Although it would be less transformative.

 

[6Gman]

Dublin to Holyhead would be the longest rail tunnel in the world. England to Ireland is perhaps a bit too far!

Er, I hope you're not suggesting that Holyhead is in England . . . ?

 

[HSTEd]

The North Wales main line has sections that were four track that could be reinstated. Much of the route is suitable for 100 mph+ line speed. It needs new track, signalling and electrification but no new alignments.

100mph is probably too slow to make a compelling case.
We must also consider the likelihood that most Irish sea road traffic would concentrate onto the fixed link alignment.

How much will it cost, monetarily and in political terms, to expend all the resources on a huge A55 upgrade programme?

The design of the Conwy railway bridge, let alone the rest of the line, also renders a rolling highway impossible, even if capacity could be made available on the railway.

In previous threads I have argued that the tunnel could pay its operating costs but never repay its capital costs. It would ultimately be a political project and our current political trend does not support it.

Boris is becoming increasingly desperate to save the union by any means at his disposal.
The money this link would cost would be peanuts in national terms.

 

[randyrippley]

The Wales/Ireland link seems to make far more sense than the Scottish/Irish one but it doesnt play well into the Union Connectivity narrative.

I'm actually a fan of Boris's Isle of Man idea. With the link coming off the WCML and M6 near Lancaster it is the only one that doesnt require huge investment on improved road and rail links to reach the tunnel portal on this side of the Irish Sea. Whether you can build a tunnel that long is a moot point.

May not be so easy - you'd have to tunnel under the deep mud in Morecambe Bay without hitting the shallow gas deposits. Doesn't give you much depth to work in. And even then there would be a risk of gas seepage. There's an active fault line in the bay - four earthquakes that I remember in the last 30 years.
Maybe you could try sunken tubes, but they'd settle in the mud - and there's a routing issue given that between them the gas rigs and wind turbines are effective blocks to access.

 

[camflyer]

The advantage of a tunnel to Dublin, is that presumably Ireland/EU would pay half of the costs, whereas a tunnel to N Ireland would have to be met fully by the UK!

It would also make London to Dublin (which is the busiest international air route in Europe) by rail feasible where any service via Scotland and Northern Ireland would take too long. Also Manchester/Liverpool/Birmingham to Dublin would remove the need for a lot of flights. Cardiff to Dublin would still be hard unless north to south rail links across Wales were improved.

 

[HSTEd]

May not be so easy - you'd have to tunnel under the deep mud in Morecambe Bay without hitting the shallow gas deposits. Doesn't give you much depth to work in. And even then there would be a risk of gas seepage. There's an active fault line in the bay - four earthquakes that I remember in the last 30 years.
Maybe you could try sunken tubes, but they'd settle in the mud - and there's a routing issue given that between them the gas rigs and wind turbines are effective blocks to access.

Given the low water depths it is far more likely to be an immersed tube tunnel or a simple viaduct than anything else.

Also you want an immersed tube tunnel to settle into the seabed?

 

[randyrippley]

Given the low water depths it is far more likely to be an immersed tube tunnel or a simple viaduct than anything else.

Also you want an immersed tube tunnel to settle into the seabed?

No I wouldn't want it to settle - but that's the point: anything resting on the seabed there will drop into that effectively bottomless mud. There's no solid bottom for a long way down

 

[HSTEd]

No I wouldn't want it to settle - but that's the point: anything resting on the seabed there will drop into that effectively bottomless mud. There's no solid bottom for a long way down

The fact that wind turbines and gas platforms are standing in the area indicates that structures can be built on it.

 

[randyrippley]

The fact that wind turbines and gas platforms are standing in the area indicates that structures can be built on it.

very deep foundations for the rigs, which you couldn't replicate for a tunnel, while the turbine platforms are a problem - they've required rebuilding and underpinning and apparently aren't stable even now. They're unmanned structures so much less of a safety risk than a sunken tunnel

 

[irish_rail]

The Scotland Belfast tunnel should be a complete none starter, really doesn't benefit much of the UK and as others have stated by far the biggest market for Ireland is London and the South East. If technologically feasible (doubtful) then Holyhead to Dublin would make far more sense and be more useful to a far greater proportion of both the UK and Irish populations.