London Theme Park HS1 congestion

[ashkeba]

Are they looking for an excuse to decline the resort's planning application due to access issues?

Probably not but if the developers do not reach an agreement with the railway companies for the capacity increase required by their plans then there is a justified reason to reject it, else whoever consents should have to fund it.

 

[deltic]

This is a way of trying to extract some financial contribution from London Resort probably towards crowd control measures. The London resort figures suggest only around 1,000 passengers an hour will be using HS1. The problems may occur more around concerts in the evening when flows out of London coincide with peak commuting times.

 

[Starmill]

Didn't the service that ran during the games use up so many units too that a 2019 level of service across Kent would not be possible? Obviously there continue to be some unknowns but...

 

[bramling]

Are they looking for an excuse to decline the resort's planning application due to access issues?

I’d have thought the potential to increase congestion at the Dartford bridge / tunnels would be just as much of an issue.

Perhaps any planning permission for the theme park could have a condition attached that the developers must build, er, a new road crossing, and extra capacity on HS1!

 

[HSTEd]

I know Eurostars weren't ever going to call at Stratford, but during the Olympics in the late evening when Eurostar weren't taking up train paths on HS1, South Eastern ran 12 trains an hour from 3 platforms at St Pancras.

Surrendering the Eurostar platforms at Stratford for conversion to domestic use, as during the Olympics, substantially eases timetabling on HS1.
Having two platforms in each direction means the same path that carries a 395 to Stratford can be used by a 395 departing Stratford.

However the temporary conversion to allow this to happen was undone afterwards.

 

[Ianno87]

Didn't South Eastern run 8 trains per hour to Ebbsfleet during the Olympics? From 3 platforms at St Pancras?

12 trains per hour at certain times even? (From the same 3 platforms) Although these were at times of the day when Eurostar wasn't running.

More train sets needed maybe, but capacity at St Pancras? I don't buy it.

Remember that the off-HS1 Javelin service was scaled back for the duration, to focus capacity North of Ashford only.

Plus bespoke queuing systems around St Pancras that wouldn't be practical to implement on a long term basis.

 

[Bald Rick]

Didn't South Eastern run 8 trains per hour to Ebbsfleet during the Olympics? From 3 platforms at St Pancras?

12 trains per hour at certain times even? (From the same 3 platforms) Although these were at times of the day when Eurostar wasn't running.

More train sets needed maybe, but capacity at St Pancras? I don't buy it.

It’s passenger capacity at St P that is the issue. During the Olympics there were special temporary arrangements in place, and existing commuters were encouraged to se alternative routes or not travel. That’s fine for two weeks, not fine for ‘ever’.

 

[Horizon22]

Have I understood this correctly, a railway is objecting to a development because it will result in too many passengers using its services?

I think this response is absolutely bizarre, most businesses would be jumping for joy faced with the prospect of a significant increase in demand for their service, they'd be thinking about how they could meet it, the potential for expanding their capacity or even raising their prices to capitalise on the extra demand. It's an opportunity, they should be asking how can they lay on extra services or capacity, or if that isn't possible, how could they adjust pricing to smooth the demand and raise utilisation of the ones they have, ticketing schemes to work with the theme park to optimise things.

Given the uncertain future of the railways with the shift to homeworking, I would have thought this is an opportunity it should be grabbing with both hands.

Southeastern HS services are also pretty rammed throughout the day. Who knows if that will continue post-pandemic, but a significant development like this could tip some over the edge at key times.

 

[deltic]

Demand at London Resorts is going to be orders of magnitude less than at the Olympics, they are talking about 50,000 visitors over a whole day rather than 80,000 visitors arriving and departing over a couple of hours. Traffic will also be against the main flow - out of London in the morning and back in the evening. There will undoubtedly be times when services are crowded but journey times are short. Does Disneyland Paris cause any issues for the TGV and RER networks?

 

[Ianno87]

. Does Disneyland Paris cause any issues for the TGV and RER networks?

For the RER, demand in central Paris is of course spread across multiple city centre stations.

The TGV timetable seems to be structured around providing capacity to Marne-la-Vallee (and Charles de Gaulle) from the "regions" in the morning (and back again in the afternoon). Plus demand is of course managed by (say it quietly) compulsory reservations.

Marne-la-Vallee station itself is basically designed for the specific purpose of serving Disney.

 

[JKF]

It's 20 minutes away central London by HS1, the same as attractions in Greenwich as well as other even central London attractions. It may not geographically be in London but it's definitely closer and easier to get to than most attractions.

Definitely easier than Legoland at Windsor, which has pathetic public transport links.

I‘d thought if they were going for the theme park angle perhaps they could build a genuine Platform 13 3/4 at Kings Cross and run the Hogwarts express to the park, though that definitely wouldn’t be able to run down HS1.

 

[Bald Rick]

Demand at London Resorts is going to be orders of magnitude less than at the Olympics, they are talking about 50,000 visitors over a whole day rather than 80,000 visitors arriving and departing over a couple of hours. Traffic will also be against the main flow - out of London in the morning and back in the evening. There will undoubtedly be times when services are crowded but journey times are short. Does Disneyland Paris cause any issues for the TGV and RER networks?

The Olympics, at Stratford, had the significant advantage of being adjacent to the best transport hub in East London. As well as the Javelin, there were two high capacity tube lines which ran at 30tph, 2 DLR lines at 10-15tph, and the Great Eastern line from central London at 14tph minimum. Collectively, capacity for well over 50,000 people per hour from Central London. That’s not including the District / H&C / c2c lines to West Ham which were also pushed as routes to Stratford, nor the North London Line. All with general advice for non Olympics travellers to avoid if possible.

The London resort has, in normal circumstances, 4tph from London to Ebbsfleet, and 4tph from London to Swanscombe. About 10% of the capacity to Stratford. And that’s before the point of the issue - the London resort don’t want to spend money on the stations, and suggest everyone using rail will rock up at Ebbsfleet rather than Swnscombe. Clearly that’s not the case.

 

[londonteacher]

Definitely easier than Legoland at Windsor, which has pathetic public transport links.

I‘d thought if they were going for the theme park angle perhaps they could build a genuine Platform 13 3/4 at Kings Cross and run the Hogwarts express to the park, though that definitely wouldn’t be able to run down HS1.

If only Universal didn't hold the theme Park rights then that could happen!

 

[deltic]

The Olympics, at Stratford, had the significant advantage of being adjacent to the best transport hub in East London. As well as the Javelin, there were two high capacity tube lines which ran at 30tph, 2 DLR lines at 10-15tph, and the Great Eastern line from central London at 14tph minimum. Collectively, capacity for well over 50,000 people per hour from Central London. That’s not including the District / H&C / c2c lines to West Ham which were also pushed as routes to Stratford, nor the North London Line. All with general advice for non Olympics travellers to avoid if possible.

The London resort has, in normal circumstances, 4tph from London to Ebbsfleet, and 4tph from London to Swanscombe. About 10% of the capacity to Stratford. And that’s before the point of the issue - the London resort don’t want to spend money on the stations, and suggest everyone using rail will rock up at Ebbsfleet rather than Swnscombe. Clearly that’s not the case.

But London Resort is going to attract less than 10% of the custom per hour that the Olympics did and probably around half of those will be travellling by car and coach. The planning application makes clear they assume people will arrive by HS1, N Kent Line and C2C (there will a ferry link across the Thames). Its daily 2038 arrivals are projected to be 12,000 by HS1, 7,000 by NKL and 1,000 by C2C with peak hour arrival of some 1,500 by HS1 between 12:00-13:00. They are also hoping for a large numbers of overseas visitors arriving via Eurostar

 

[Failed Unit]

Looking at it on the map, surely this is the perfect opportunity to improve Northfleet. Maybe even develop an undercover interchange between Ebbsfleet and Northfleet. Share the load. If they are looking for the developer to fund infrastructure (which I doubt will happen considering Heathrow expects the taxpayer to fund everything) the I agree extending Cross-rail from Abbey Wood - Ebbsfleet will probably be a better spend then upgrading HS1.

 

[Bald Rick]

But London Resort is going to attract less than 10% of the custom per hour that the Olympics did

Suggest you check those numbers.

 

[deltic]

Suggest you check those numbers.

The numbers I quoted are taken from the planning application - all day arrivals by rail at London Resort are less than the hourly arrivals at Stratford

 

[Bald Rick]

The numbers I quoted are taken from the planning application - all day arrivals by rail at London Resort are less than the hourly arrivals at Stratford

All day arrivals at London resort by rail are predicted to be around 13,000 (85th %ile) most of which will be concentrated into a 5/6 hour period. Yes Stratford could do that in an hour, but it had the capacity to, and the usual demand was suppressed. This is not the case here for the North Kent Line stations.

 

[stuu]

Does Disneyland Paris cause any issues for the TGV and RER networks?

The off peak service to Disneyland Paris runs every 10 minutes using pairs of MI09 double deck trains with a theoretical capacity of 15000 passengers per hour, and as has already been said people can board those throughout central Paris. It's not a very useful comparison

 

[HSTEd]

The off peak service to Disneyland Paris runs every 10 minutes using pairs of MI09 double deck trains with a theoretical capacity of 15000 passengers per hour, and as has already been said people can board those throughout central Paris. It's not a very useful comparison

Maybe we can get an RER if we play our cards right!

 

[cle]

At least an Ebbsfleet Crossrail extension would also be useful for regular users too. I care so little for infrastructure planning based on a one-off theme park, or a annual trip to Manchester Airport, and yet we do it.

But 12tph Crossrail to Ebbsfleet (new track pair with platforms for all stations up until Dartford) makes sense.

What happens at that end, no idea:

Should it terminate at a rebuilt (with platforms), and connected Northfleet? Or something at Ebbsfleet?
Should it run to Gravesend? And take on all the services up until there?
What then serves Higham and Strood? HS1 only?
Or does Southeastern continue beyond Dartford and Gravesend? Which adds route pollution to a largely 'pure' section of Crossrail.
Or could Crossrail run to Rochester/Rainham's third platforms (@2tph each) and full cover off North Kent off from Southeastern? With HS1 and Victoria trains still in the mix.

A lot to debate, no visibility yet on how busy the Abbey Wood branch will be - and no obvious solution!.

 

[ABB125]

Perhaps any planning permission for the theme park could have a condition attached that the developers must build, er, a new road crossing, and extra capacity on HS1!

Do the developers happen to have a spare £6 billion or so? For that money, they could get a new road crossing that's already designed and ready to go*...

*well, sort-of!

 

[Starmill]

The off peak service to Disneyland Paris runs every 10 minutes using pairs of MI09 double deck trains with a theoretical capacity of 15000 passengers per hour, and as has already been said people can board those throughout central Paris. It's not a very useful comparison

It also seems that the TGV services will mainly only have people going either to Disney, to Charles de Gaulle Airport, somewhere else nearby to either station, or will be making trans-France/Belgium trips and avoiding changing in Paris e.g. Brussels to Marseille. In other words these TGVs aren't taking any capacity away from the long-distance traffic to and from central Paris. As you say not at all what might be possible for London Resort.

 

[6Gman]

Probably not but if the developers do not reach an agreement with the railway companies for the capacity increase required by their plans then there is a justified reason to reject it, else whoever consents should have to fund it.

I think this is a point that some people are missing.

The objection from HS1/SET is that the project would need significant additional provision at St Pancras and that the planning application does not address that issue. And that until it can be shown that adequate provision can be made the application should not proceed. No different (e.g.) from a housing development where the water company says it would overload the sewage system - unless the applicant can show it can be sorted then permission shouldn't be granted.

My experience of the HS1 Domestic part of St Pancras is that it's poorly laid out and frequently overcrowded. Whether the additional traffic that would arise from this development would tip it over the edge I don't know, but I think the people who run the railway will have some idea!

 

[BluePenguin]

May I ask how on earth is this a London theme park?

When I did geography at school many years ago, Swanscombe is in the county of Kent, and not London or Greater London.

It is definitely in Kent! Ebbsfleet is not even the name of a real place, they are trying to make it one though.

The resort will be between Swanscombe and Gravesend I believe. I hate how it has to be called a London resort. Harry Potter studios in Hertfordshire is a similar distance outside of London

 

[deltic]

I think this is a point that some people are missing.

The objection from HS1/SET is that the project would need significant additional provision at St Pancras and that the planning application does not address that issue. And that until it can be shown that adequate provision can be made the application should not proceed. No different (e.g.) from a housing development where the water company says it would overload the sewage system - unless the applicant can show it can be sorted then permission shouldn't be granted.

My experience of the HS1 Domestic part of St Pancras is that it's poorly laid out and frequently overcrowded. Whether the additional traffic that would arise from this development would tip it over the edge I don't know, but I think the people who run the railway will have some idea!

That is not quite how the system works in this case. The Developer has set out its forecasts that show the scheme will work with existing rail capacity. HS1 will need to show that it will not. The Planning Inspector will come to a view as to which is the most likely outcome after each side's barristers have tried to undermine the other side's arguments, while taking into account all the other factors that need to be considered. The Inspector(s) will make their recommendation to the Secretary of State who will consider the political considerations. In the great scheme of things, unless HS1 can show the railway will completely fall over with the Proposed Scheme then it will become a minor issue. As highlighted before HS1 will probably be brought off by some financial contribution to crowd control at St Pancras.

 

[Mikey C]

The theme park traffic might be in the opposite direction to most commuters, but I can imagine some passenger flow conflicts at St Pancras between arriving and departing passengers on the platforms and in the pokey area between the gates and the escalators

 

[cle]

It is definitely in Kent! Ebbsfleet is not even the name of a real place, they are trying to make it one though.

The resort will be between Swanscombe and Gravesend I believe. I hate how it has to be called a London resort. Harry Potter studios in Hertfordshire is a similar distance outside of London

Because it doesn't matter. Like counties, frankly. Think about a world or even a Europe map - it's irrelevant to visitors.

 

[BluePenguin]

Because it doesn't matter. Like counties, frankly. Think about a world or even a Europe map - it's irrelevant to visitors.

Strictly speaking you are correct, it doesn’t matter. Although telling people it’s just a name doesn’t really go down very well. Tourists are only welcome if the locals can make money from them it seems. Otherwise they are seen as a burdensome hinderance to local transport and resources.

In this case the theme will do nothing to attract tourists to Kent or benefit local people. People will head straight there and then home again.

 

[Wolfie]

Strictly speaking you are correct, it doesn’t matter. Although telling people it’s just a name doesn’t really go down very well. Tourists are only welcome if the locals can make money from them it seems. Otherwise they are seen as a burdensome hinderance to local transport and resources.

In this case the theme will do nothing to attract tourists to Kent or benefit local people. People will head straight there and then home again.

Which is not an unreasonable viewpoint. If locals have to suffer inconvenience due to tourism why should they not expect economic gain as some sort of compensation?