How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Carlisle]

You're on a different planet, sorry.

Don’t you remember on 4 July last summer, many pubs chose to wait for a while after that date before reopening & some along with virtually all nightclubs still haven’t done so to this day,

 

[philosopher]

That’s unlikely to happen straight away unless it coincides with an exceptional heatwave.
Many pubs won’t have been a part of our lives for at least 6 months & given they begun being ordered to close again last October, confidence within the sector won’t be very high for quite a while yet

When the first lockdown ended last Spring / Summer, people did indeed seem reluctant to return to pubs. People only really returned properly in August, perhaps helped by Eat Out to Help Out. However when the second lockdown ended in December last year, people returned pretty swiftly, despite drinks having to be bought with a meal and only households allowed to meet inside.

 

[Кряква]

Don’t you remember on 4 July last summer, many pubs chose to wait for a while after that date before reopening & some still haven’t do so to this day

I'm talking about reopening.
Actual reopening.
Not rule of six, not masks and screens, reopening. The thread title is "when will social distancing end".

Oxford Street was rammed late Dec which caused the Government to **** the bed and go for Tier 4 after about 5 days or something.

There is spectacular pent up demand for real life amongst everyone I know.

It's not July anymore - people were afraid then. It's been a year. We are taking our life back.

 

[DustyBin]

Don’t you remember on 4 July last summer, many pubs chose to wait for a while after that date before reopening & some along with virtually all nightclubs still haven’t done so to this day,

A lot of pubs struggled to restock quickly enough and some were unsure about how to implement social distancing rules. Others are run by clinically vulnerable people who didn’t want to open for obvious reasons. Then there are those who knew it wasn’t worthwhile as WFH etc. had taken away their trade. So your right in saying that some pubs didn’t reopen, but the majority that didn’t had a specific reason. Those that did open generally did very well until the rules were tweaked again to make visiting pubs less enjoyable....

Don’t forget that Nightclubs have never actually been allowed to reopen.

 

[joncombe]

I suspect many on here suspected it looks like the goal posts are going to move again according to this article. To quote

It is "very possible" the South Africa variant could already be quite widespread in the UK, Dr Mike Tildesley, an infectious disease expert who advises the government, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

According to health minister Edward Argar 147 cases of the South Africa variant been identified in the UK, though he admitted those figures could be a couple of days out of date. He said the version of the virus first discovered in Kent was still the dominant strain.

Dr Tildesley said the "surge testing" taking place in certain areas in England "really needs to be effective" to halt the spread of the South Africa variant, but "sadly we may be in a similar situation to the Kent variant" which eventually spread across the whole country.

He says there are "significant implications" if it is the case that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is less effective against the South Africa variant, as it may mean "more restrictions might be needed for longer".

I personally think the only way we will get back to normal is if the public and businesses at large simply ignore the restrictions. The Government isn't going to remove them, or at least won't until an election looms, perhaps (which is years away)

 

[Ian Cunningham]

A lot of pubs struggled to restock quickly enough and some were unsure about how to implement social distancing rules. Others are run by clinically vulnerable people who didn’t want to open for obvious reasons. Then there are those who knew it wasn’t worthwhile as WFH etc. had taken away their trade. So your right in saying that some pubs didn’t reopen, but the majority that didn’t had a specific reason. Those that did open generally did very well until the rules were tweaked again to make visiting pubs less enjoyable....

Don’t forget that Nightclubs have never actually been allowed to reopen.

There were significant supply chain issues as the on-trade suppliers simply didn't have the capacity to suddenly supply all the pubs at once (even when a pub got a delivery stock levels were variable)
This was a particular problem for real-ale pubs as many brewers hadn't restarted production due to the uncertaincy of reopening dates and delayed deliveries plus the settling/venting time needed pushed some pubs back a couple of weeks

A lot of pubs also ca'd canny on reopening - there was a expectation/risk of folk going a bit mental over the first few days. Quite a few of the more sensible pubs around here deliberately avoided the first weekend and restricted numbers until they got the hang of the new way of working

There's also many small pubs that were just too small to be viable with physical distancing in place (even at 1m) - a lot of these just stayed shut as they would have made a even heavier loss if they had opened

 

[6862]

I suspect many on here suspected it looks like the goal posts are going to move again according to this article. To quote



I personally think the only way we will get back to normal is if the public and businesses at large simply ignore the restrictions. The Government isn't going to, or at least won't until an election looms, perhaps (which is years away)

I thought much the same when I read that article. I suspect 2021 will be pretty much identical to 2020 - a new virus (variant) emerges in the UK in February, total lockdown until May, some slow relaxation from May to September, then progressively stricter rules from October - March 2022. I think this summer won't be as free as last year, as the government know how important the fear factor is.

 

[Кряква]

If the announcement on Feb 22 indicates that the plan to release after vaccination has changed then I will immediately cease following any restrictions and will become a part of any protest movement that will have me.

 

[kez19]

I thought much the same when I read that article. I suspect 2021 will be pretty much identical to 2020 - a new virus (variant) emerges in the UK in February, total lockdown until May, some slow relaxation from May to September, then progressively stricter rules from October - March 2022. I think this summer won't be as free as last year, as the government know how important the fear factor is.

So we repeat the cycle of last year? I'm confused who is in control here is it the governments or the unelected SAGE?

I think by Christmas this year people will be voting with their feet if they haven't seen any loved ones since christmas last year - I reckon by then that ship will sail.

 

[6862]

So we repeat the cycle of last year? I'm confused who is in control here is it the governments or the unelected SAGE?

I think by Christmas this year people will be voting with their feet if they haven't seen any loved ones since christmas last year - I reckon by then that ship will sail.

Sage hold the real power while Boris is insisting on 'following the science' (which means considering all things only from a purely epidemiological point of view and ignoring all other important factors). So yes, I genuinely believe we will see almost a 100% repeat of last year. And I think one day of freedom to mix with family at Christmas is the best we will get. While I am hopeful that I will be able to see some of my immediate family next Christmas, I doubt I will ever see my extended family again.

 

[bramling]

I'm talking about reopening.
Actual reopening.
Not rule of six, not masks and screens, reopening. The thread title is "when will social distancing end".

Oxford Street was rammed late Dec which caused the Government to **** the bed and go for Tier 4 after about 5 days or something.

There is spectacular pent up demand for real life amongst everyone I know.

It's not July anymore - people were afraid then. It's been a year. We are taking our life back.

There’s one exception to all this of course, a lot of people are much less keen to return to the workplace...

 

[Class 33]

I don't understand some of the very pessimistic postings on here. Things WILL be much better from the summer. The hospital numbers and deaths are tumbling week on week now. They won't go back up again now! They're only going in one direction and that's DOWN! Certainly in a few months from now they will be down to near enough ZERO. And by then the government will have no justifications atall to keep all these ridiculous damaging restrictions any longer. Hancock is on record in saying "We won't keep any of these restrictions for a moment longer than necessary.". However, I think chances are they'll still probably keep them going a month or two longer than is really needed, before finally scrapping them. And that can't come soon enough. I can't bloody wait till this social distancing is finally scrapped! I think we're probably looking at around early July. But if it happens before then, that will be a bonus.

Please try to think positively. And not keep looking at the black side, and not keep reading ridiculous scare mongering stories and articles from so called "experts" who say restrictions can't be lifted until 2022, 2023, or whatever. They are talking absolute rubbish, and it does your mental health no good to keep reading stuff like that.

Also even though it's not this country, I note that the Dutch government are aiming to allow festivals to go ahead from 1st July. Even though they're way behind on the vaccinations compared to us. But that is very encouraging, and the British government may follow suite with this.

 

[Bantamzen]

Sage hold the real power while Boris is insisting on 'following the science' (which means considering all things only from a purely epidemiological point of view and ignoring all other important factors). So yes, I genuinely believe we will see almost a 100% repeat of last year. And I think one day of freedom to mix with family at Christmas is the best we will get. While I am hopeful that I will be able to see some of my immediate family next Christmas, I doubt I will ever see my extended family again.

I disagree, as the vaccines roll out people will become less and less tolerant of future restrictions. There's no way everyone will play nicely going forward, SAGE are going to have to accept that they don't run the country and we will not tolerate endless lockdowns. Personally speaking I will not be paying attention going forward, especially if the government start to push back on relaxations. And I'm sure I will not be alone. You will get to see your extended family.

 

[MikeWM]

Then this so called "expert" says "basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

Really?!?

Physical distancing places considerable extra costs on businesses (although with your secure well paid university job and pension I don't suppose you realise this in the slightest) and makes many businesses and events unviable.

Whatever your view on masks is, there are many people who do not like wearing them, and will avoid settings where they are compulsory unless it is unavoidable. For example, if masks are compulsory in theatres and cinemas, I will not be setting foot inside one, so they can kiss goodbye to the associated revenue.

This rather clearly shows the issues involved with 'following the science'. Many of them don't live in the real world, it seems. Try telling a pub or nightclub owner that physical distancing has no cost. Not to mention the fact that if we all followed physical distancing forever, the human race will go extinct, which seems more than a slight overreaction to a disease that 99.8% or more will survive.

I note the concerted effort over the weekend - stories from scientists and politicians in England, Wales and Scotland - basically saying that we need to keep masks and social distancing forever.

Can we please hurry up and get back to the days when the media called these folks 'boffins' and treated them as detached from the real world? Because, sadly, that stereotype appears to have been true all along.

 

[bramling]

I disagree, as the vaccines roll out people will become less and less tolerant of future restrictions. There's no way everyone will play nicely going forward, SAGE are going to have to accept that they don't run the country and we will not tolerate endless lockdowns. Personally speaking I will not be paying attention going forward, especially if the government start to push back on relaxations. And I'm sure I will not be alone. You will get to see your extended family.

All it will take to set off a spectacular argument would be some mention of a “terrifying new variant”, we’ve already seen the seeds sewn for this.

I tend to agree with the view that ultimately people aren’t going to tolerate it, but I continue to think that a significant number of lockdown enthusiasts aren’t going to give up their position lightly. If we had a strong government then this wouldn’t be an issue, but with the current shower, the “follow the science” policy, and with people like Ferguson in the background, the road to normality is going to be rockier than it needs to be. We will get there though.

 

[yorkie]

Sage hold the real power while Boris is insisting on 'following the science' (which means considering all things only from a purely epidemiological point of view and ignoring all other important factors). So yes, I genuinely believe we will see almost a 100% repeat of last year. And I think one day of freedom to mix with family at Christmas is the best we will get. While I am hopeful that I will be able to see some of my immediate family next Christmas, I doubt I will ever see my extended family again.

That's entirely your choice but you or SAGE are not going to be imposing that on others.

I thought much the same when I read that article. I suspect 2021 will be pretty much identical to 2020 - a new virus (variant) emerges in the UK in February, total lockdown until May, some slow relaxation from May to September, then progressively stricter rules from October - March 2022. I think this summer won't be as free as last year, as the government know how important the fear factor is.

You do realise new variants aren't able to escape the T-Cell response, aren't you? Or are you just saying any random thing you don't understand.

The reason the vaccines need to be tweaked for new variants is to improve the antibody response; the vaccines are still pretty effective against variants, more so than the 'flu jab in a good year!

Edit: having looked at some of your recent posts, I think you are just being facetious and are worried that these things may happen; trust me, they won't. I don't think this sort of fear is helpful; it is harmful for your own health and it can be harmful for others who read it and may think there is some truth in what you are saying. Having done plenty of research, I am not at all worried that what you say could be true, but others might be.

 

[MikeWM]

There’s one exception to all this of course, a lot of people are much less keen to return to the workplace...

There's a number of reasons for that though, it isn't just the fearful or the lazy.

I must admit that *I'm* not especially keen to return to my office, because I won't be returning to the workplace of 12 months ago, but instead to a workplace of hazard tape, one-way systems and mask requirements. And fearful coworkers. And that assumes I'll be allowed back in at all if I choose not to be vaccinated.

 

[kez19]

Sage hold the real power while Boris is insisting on 'following the science' (which means considering all things only from a purely epidemiological point of view and ignoring all other important factors). So yes, I genuinely believe we will see almost a 100% repeat of last year. And I think one day of freedom to mix with family at Christmas is the best we will get. While I am hopeful that I will be able to see some of my immediate family next Christmas, I doubt I will ever see my extended family again.

I think though on the other that the government(s) need to wind the neck in on SAGE as they seem to become power crazy on all of this, yet isn't it odd that they don't provide much info on how to get out of these lockdowns? I thought that was the point in these groups that work with government(s)?. They are quick to throw the locking down part but fail at even suggesting opening up why? I thought everything was in the science? So if SAGE and the alike are happy to suggest lockdown then they should also provide a solution to opening up again than sit on their backsides going to the media and whinging.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Feb 2021 ==

All it will take to set off a spectacular argument would be some mention of a “terrifying new variant”, we’ve already seen the seeds sewn for this.

I tend to agree with the view that ultimately people aren’t going to tolerate it, but I continue to think that a significant number of lockdown enthusiasts aren’t going to give up their position lightly. If we had a strong government then this wouldn’t be an issue, but with the current shower, the “follow the science” policy, and with people like Ferguson in the background, the road to normality is going to be rockier than it needs to be. We will get there though.

I think with the latest shenanigans on the new variants has failed - they tried levelling up the fear but its failed to materialise, wasn't it one of the variants (can't remember who said was it Vallance or member of SAGE?) that said it was about 70% then had to wind it down to 30%?, that seems to me as if it was a setup - exaggarate a figure, then hope the public bite but because no one caught onto it (my opinion here) they wind down the number to 30%. I'm sure though and it will possibly happen sooner that the public will see that media/politicians/SAGE et al "were all in this together" (thats a phrase i'm hearing more so I wouldn't be surprised it bites them on their backsides)

 

[joncombe]

That's entirely your choice but you or SAGE are not going to be imposing that on others.



You do realise new variants aren't able to escape the T-Cell response, aren't you? Or are you just saying any random thing you don't understand.

The reason the vaccines need to be tweaked for new variants is to improve the antibody response; the vaccines are still pretty effective against variants, more so than the 'flu jab in a good year!

Edit: having looked at some of your recent posts, I think you are just being facetious and are worried that these things may happen; trust me, they won't. I don't think this sort of fear is helpful; it is harmful for your own health and it can be harmful for others who read it and may think there is some truth in what you are saying. Having done plenty of research, I am not at all worried that what you say could be true, but others might be.

I think that's exactly what will happen. The suggestion is the vaccine will need to be "tweaked" to deal with this "new variant" and that isn't likely before September. By which time I've no doubt another "scary new variant" will have been found and even if not, it will take months to vaccinate everyone with the new vaccine. By which time we will be in the depths of winter, when the NHS always struggles, so restrictions won't be relaxed until the very earliest in spring 2022. I can't understand why that isn't by now obvious?

 

[yorkie]

I think that's exactly what will happen. The suggestion is the vaccine will need to be "tweaked" to deal with this "new variant" and that isn't likely before September. By which time I've no doubt another "scary new variant" will have been found and even if not, it will take months to vaccinate everyone with the new vaccine. By which time we will be in the depths of winter, when the NHS always struggles, so restrictions won't be relaxed until the very earliest in spring 2022. I can't understand why that isn't by now obvious?

New variants will come along but they cannot evade the T cell response so their impact will be limited. It's only the antibody response which potentially won't be optimal. Once everyone is vaccinated it doesn't really matter if there are asymptomatic or mild cases.

 

[initiation]

New variants will come along but they cannot evade the T cell response so their impact will be limited. It's only the antibody response which potentially won't be optimal. Once everyone is vaccinated it doesn't really matter if there are asymptomatic or mild cases.

Not denying that is correct but is that the narrative that will be sold to the public? Reminder: This is the Government/SAGE who refused to publisise any chance of pre-existing immunity and/or T cells response.

 

[yorksrob]

The presence of new varients ought to prompt serious consideration as to the ongoing sustainability (or lack thereof) of lockdown policies, given that varients are going to come along regularly.

The Government seems to have considered the viability of a closed border policy and concluded that it would be incompatible with modern Britain. Why are the Government and medical/scientific establishment incapable of making a similar balanced evaluation of lockdown ? This should be the time to do it, yet all they do is stick their fingers in their ears, screw up their eyes and shout "lockdown, lockdown, lockdown...."

 

[Richard Scott]

The presence of new varients ought to prompt serious consideration as to the ongoing sustainability (or lack thereof) of lockdown policies, given that varients are going to come along regularly.

The Government seems to have considered the viability of a closed border policy and concluded that it would be incompatible with modern Britain. Why are the Government and medical/scientific establishment incapable of making a similar balanced evaluation of lockdown ? This should be the time to do it, yet all they do is stick their fingers in their ears, screw up their eyes and shout "lockdown, lockdown, lockdown...."

I'm still at a loss to understand the paranoia around new variants. Mutation does not necessarily equal more dangerous but this seems to be the underlying narrative that the so called experts and government are pedalling. They should come clean with the facts rather than keep trying to instill fear and wreck more people's businesses, education and lives.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm still at a loss to understand the paranoia around new variants. Mutation does not necessarily equal more dangerous but this seems to be the underlying narrative that the so called experts and government are pedalling. They should come clean with the facts rather than keep trying to instill fear and wreck more people's businesses, education and lives.

We wait in vain for a sustainable strategy for living with the virus, but no one in power seems interested.

 

[brad465]

Selling this apparent variant narrative is going to be a real struggle for them come mid-spring onwards; the current trajectory of deaths and hospitalisations will only be helped by the vaccines retaining effectiveness for serious illness and will see more people asking questions of sustainability. Yes there will be people who won't be convinced otherwise, we never will get 100% in agreement with a particular point of view, but a much improved picture overall, combined with the ability to tweak vaccines where necessary in future, is a strong selling position for those anti-lockdown/restrictions.

 

[DustyBin]

There were significant supply chain issues as the on-trade suppliers simply didn't have the capacity to suddenly supply all the pubs at once (even when a pub got a delivery stock levels were variable)
This was a particular problem for real-ale pubs as many brewers hadn't restarted production due to the uncertaincy of reopening dates and delayed deliveries plus the settling/venting time needed pushed some pubs back a couple of weeks

A lot of pubs also ca'd canny on reopening - there was a expectation/risk of folk going a bit mental over the first few days. Quite a few of the more sensible pubs around here deliberately avoided the first weekend and restricted numbers until they got the hang of the new way of working

There's also many small pubs that were just too small to be viable with physical distancing in place (even at 1m) - a lot of these just stayed shut as they would have made a even heavier loss if they had opened

You’re quite right, some wanted to avoid the first weekend which was perhaps understandable. You’re right also about the very small pubs, I had overlooked them but of course they simply couldn’t afford to open.

The real ale situation was a pain, some of my favourites never actually reappeared between the first and second lockdowns as breweries rationalised their ranges.

 

[VauxhallandI]

You’re quite right, some wanted to avoid the first weekend which was perhaps understandable. You’re right also about the very small pubs, I had overlooked them but of course they simply couldn’t afford to open.

The real ale situation was a pain, some of my favourites never actually reappeared between the first and second lockdowns as breweries rationalised their ranges.

Oh yes I noticed we were down to one house option for real ale; all the variants (sorry) were not brewed.

 

[Carlisle]

. Hancock is on record in saying "We won't keep any of these restrictions for a moment longer than necessary.".

Boris is on record in saying
‘Significant normality by Christmas 2020’

‘ Equal dislike of a second lockdown & launching our nuclear deterrent’

‘We will have a world beating track & trace system’

 

[joncombe]

Boris is on record in saying
‘Significant normality by Christmas 2020’

‘ Equal dislike of a second lockdown & launching our nuclear deterrent’

‘We will have a world beating track & trace system’

Yes exactly. They constantly promise everything will be back to normal in a few months. It never is. There is always an excuse as to why it has to be just a few more months. I don't know how much longer the public are prepared to be strung along like this, but I've reached the limit I can tolerate.

 

[DustyBin]

Oh yes I noticed we were down to one house option for real ale; all the variants (sorry) were not brewed.

On a positive note maybe we’ll see some new variants when pubs reopen? (Sorry couldn’t resist!)