New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[py_megapixel]

Doesn't matter. He's the PM - he's still got a job to do of being seen to run the country and if it means traveling five miles or five hundred then so be it.

Yes, but that job could "reasonably be done from home" via television/radio broadcasts. No need for him to travel.

I'd love the police to stop him and give him a fine.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

Sorely tempted as I am to go along with the snark re. his visit, BJ is still the PM of the entire UK. Should he just stay in No.10 and not travel anywhere in his role?

It does come at the same time that his own government is advising that door to door campaigning for the upcoming elections(even just leafleting) is "neither essential nor necessary"

So a 400 mile+ trip to campaign against independence is probably pushing it (it's also likely to have the opposite effect that he wants)

Covid-19: Parties urged to suspend doorstep campaigning

Leafleting and other political activities are "neither essential nor necessary", the government says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Watershed]

Announced that Boris is going on his non-essential travels again just illustrating that he can't follow his own rules

www.thenational.scot/news/19036993.boris-johnson-reportedly-coming-scotland-week-bid-save-union/

As PM and leader of the Conservatives, I think it's difficult to say he could do his job properly without visiting places to speak to locals, open places, make promises, have interviews, make speeches etc. If he stayed in Downing Street there would be many who would say he wasn't leading properly.

That is quite aside from the completely outdated remark about "essential work", the first word of which was eradicated from the Regulations the best part of a year ago.

 

[nlogax]

As PM and leader of the Conservatives, I think it's difficult to say he could do his job properly without visiting places to speak to locals, open places, make promises, have interviews, make speeches etc.

Absolutely agree. Regardless of what we think of him or what he stands for it's well within his right as PM to travel to do his job.

 

[jtuk]

The virus doesn't differentiate between the PM and anybody else

Well, given that the PM has had the virus already, it kind of does

 

[Class 33]

Another Downing Street News Conference again today!! This one with Johnson, Whitty and NHS Chief Simon Stevens. Whitty again. But at least it's not Whitty and Vallance again. Let's see what this is about. Not expecting anything positive though.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Another Downing Street News Conference again today!! This one with Johnson, Whitty and NHS Chief Simon Stevens. Whitty again. But at least it's not Whitty and Vallance again. Let's see what this is about. Not expecting anything positive though.

Likely to be the hotel-quarantine announcement I reckon.

 

[Domh245]

Would imagine it's the hotel-quarantine too, but might also reasonably expect something about the vaccination program given the mutterings from across the channel the last few days

 

[Bantamzen]

Ah yes, bad news is incoming on unemployment with 5% reported for September-November, and forecasts of anything from 7.5%-10% for April. So better find something to bury it under, oh yes hotel quarantines....

 

[brad465]

Ah yes, bad news is incoming on unemployment with 5% reported for September-November, and forecasts of anything from 7.5%-10% for April. So better find something to bury it under, oh yes hotel quarantines....

That's part of it, but actually I think it's more likely the deaths within 28 days of a positive test will hit 100,000 in most likely today's announcement, or if today's total falls just short of 1469, tomorrow. While we'd argue we can't stop death and any deaths saved now will only happen in later years, this total will be heavily frowned upon and the Government will do everything it can to try and "muffle" it out.


EDIT: The Gov dashboard has put in 1631 reported deaths today to take the total to 100,162.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

We've got no chance then, they will keep chucking out new variants for forever and a day, and the evidence will be marginal at best.

They did goto great pains to say that the vaccines will work against the new variants and that four independent labs are running trials. Jenny Harries also said the virus is mutating all the time and the majority of mutations don't cause us any concerns.

Death rate is a lagging indicator so not sure why they would use that other than its political. Hospitalisation is the big one and it remains frustrating that the data isn't updated daily even Hancock used the data from 21/1 but this has peaked but as per wave one it will have a long tail.

That's part of it, but actually I think it's more likely the deaths within 28 days of a positive test will hit 100,000 in most likely today's announcement, or if today's total falls just short of 1469, tomorrow. While we'd argue we can't stop death and any deaths saved now will only happen in later years, this total will be heavily frowned upon and the Government will do everything it can to try and "muffle" it out.


EDIT: The Gov dashboard has put in 1631 reported deaths today to take the total to 100,162.

So much for Valences 20k would be a good out come 10 months ago.

On a more positive note cases are down again to 20k. There is clear correlation with admissions 2-3 weeks later so nicely puts us at mid Feb review with all metric trending in the right direction. The CRG really need to put the pressure on now to get a roadmap out of them.

 

[northernchris]

On a more positive note cases are down again to 20k. There is clear correlation with admissions 2-3 weeks later so nicely puts us at mid Feb review with all metric trending in the right direction. The CRG really need to put the pressure on now to get a roadmap out of them.

Whilst it's good the cases are dropping, I do wonder if there's something else affecting the daily number of infections. Friday's was around 40,000, Sunday was 30,000 and today 20,000. There's some big daily drops, and part of me is suspecting any day we'll see a huge increase to account for 'missing' results

 

[chris11256]

Whilst it's good the cases are dropping, I do wonder if there's something else affecting the daily number of infections. Friday's was around 40,000, Sunday was 30,000 and today 20,000. There's some big daily drops, and part of me is suspecting any day we'll see a huge increase to account for 'missing' results

i must admit, while the drastic drop in cases is very good news, I can't help but wonder the same thing. They seem to be dropping slightly too fast to be realistic, unless of course tomorrow's figures are going to be dramatically higher to account for some kind of weekend/start of the week lag.

 

[Dent]

Whilst it's good the cases are dropping, I do wonder if there's something else affecting the daily number of infections. Friday's was around 40,000, Sunday was 30,000 and today 20,000. There's some big daily drops, and part of me is suspecting any day we'll see a huge increase to account for 'missing' results

Looking at the figures by specimen date the decline is fairly consistent.

Also note that there usually is a peak in reporting on Fridays followed by a steep fall every day Saturday to Tuesday. Comparing each day to the same day last week is the fairest comparison, the daily drop doesn't tell you much when there is an established weekly cycle of peaks and troughs.

 

[HSTEd]

i must admit, while the drastic drop in cases is very good news, I can't help but wonder the same thing. They seem to be dropping slightly too fast to be realistic, unless of course tomorrow's figures are going to be dramatically higher to account for some kind of weekend/start of the week lag.

The only thing I can think of to explain it is maybe the wave had already peaked before lockdown took effect, and as a result R without the lockdown was already ~1, which meant that the lockdown pushed it down to some very low value.

 

[Dent]

i must admit, while the drastic drop in cases is very good news, I can't help but wonder the same thing. They seem to be dropping slightly too fast to be realistic, unless of course tomorrow's figures are going to be dramatically higher to account for some kind of weekend/start of the week lag.

Reported figures are usually higher on Wednesdays than Tuesdays, not because of any weekend reporting lag but because more people get tested on Mondays, and most cases take at least two days to appear in the reported figures.

Figures by specimen date give a much more accurate picture of the trend, and in any case the relevant comparison is between the same day in different weeks not between consecutive days.

 

[Domh245]

The poor weather over the last week may have had an impact, particularly for anyone going to walk in test centres (I believe the vast majority of tests done now are lateral flow types, which are walk in)

 

[northernchris]

The poor weather over the last week may have had an impact, particularly for anyone going to walk in test centres (I believe the vast majority of tests done now are lateral flow types, which are walk in)

That would be logical, especially if there's been an increase in postal tests which will have a couple of days time lag

 

[DelayRepay]

Whilst it's good the cases are dropping, I do wonder if there's something else affecting the daily number of infections. Friday's was around 40,000, Sunday was 30,000 and today 20,000. There's some big daily drops, and part of me is suspecting any day we'll see a huge increase to account for 'missing' results

In my area both Covid testing centres were closed at the weekend. They're both drive through centres in car parks. The local council with help from the fire brigade cleared all the snow, but unfortunately their water supply pipes were frozen so they had to close due to lack of handwashing facilities.

I do wonder if the bad weather and travel problems caused by the snow has caused a drop in numbers going for testing.

 

[takno]

The poor weather over the last week may have had an impact, particularly for anyone going to walk in test centres (I believe the vast majority of tests done now are lateral flow types, which are walk in)

Looks like overall testing has held steady over the last week, though PCR tests are down a fair bit. PCR was still around 60% of tests a week ago.

What isn't clear is whether the fall is partly due to the increasing proportion of lateral flow tests, which tend not to report so many likely-uninfectious positives. Or for that matter whether that is important.

I think I'll hold off commenting for the ONS infection study stats. They messed up what was likely to have been the first week of falling results (which will coincidentally make it a lot easier to hide the fact that the numbers were falling before the current stay-indoors lockdown came in). The figures to the 16th (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest) show a drop in line with the actual test results. If the figures to the 23rd continue to show a drop in line with the actual test results then I think we can safely say that the drop is real.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

That would be logical, especially if there's been an increase in postal tests which will have a couple of days time lag

Testing levels were very high last week but have dropped back so it is possible that processing capacity isn't keeping up but they will never admit to that. In my local area (SE) I follow daily specimen cases and they have been on a downward trend for a couple of weeks so trend is in the right direction. Also admission rates in England have been falling as well particularly in L&SE which is consistent with the peak in cases seen 2-3 weeks back.

All metrics they say are relevant to relaxing restrictions are going in the right direction except the death rate which wont for several weeks but it is a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used.

 

[brad465]

All metrics they say are relevant to relaxing restrictions are going in the right direction except the death rate which wont for several weeks but it is a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used.

That depends how much this metric of "deaths within 28 days of a positive test" is taken seriously, which I believe wasn't brought in until after the first wave and led to the death toll at the time being revised down. Given a test could be made at anytime during the infection it identifies, it's possible there'll still be a lag beyond 28 days, but I doubt it'll be as long as in the spring, particularly as our testing capacity being much higher ensures more testing is done earlier rather than later.

As for excess deaths that the ONS measure, at the moment not all Covid registered deaths are excess, so it's possible that we'll reach the point of no excess deaths while daily reported Covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test is at least a few hundred a day or less.

 

[hwl]

That would be logical, especially if there's been an increase in postal tests which will have a couple of days time lag

Apparently lots of less well off people are avoiding testing because they or families housemates can't afford to self isolate.

 

[northernchris]

Testing levels were very high last week but have dropped back so it is possible that processing capacity isn't keeping up but they will never admit to that. In my local area (SE) I follow daily specimen cases and they have been on a downward trend for a couple of weeks so trend is in the right direction. Also admission rates in England have been falling as well particularly in L&SE which is consistent with the peak in cases seen 2-3 weeks back.

All metrics they say are relevant to relaxing restrictions are going in the right direction except the death rate which wont for several weeks but it is a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used.

It certainly looks like things are starting to head in the right direction, although I remain unconvinced that the actual daily cases have halved in a week.

Apparently lots of less well off people are avoiding testing because they or families housemates can't afford to self isolate.

This is something which really needed addressing last March, no one should be financially worse off for doing the right thing

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Apparently lots of less well off people are avoiding testing because they or families housemates can't afford to self isolate.

Thats been an issue from the outset so I wouldn't have thought that would be the cause of a sudden step down.

There is a genuine drop but as others have commented caution needs to be exercised as its probably a logjam in testing so expects some catch up.

 

[ChrisC]

Testing levels were very high last week but have dropped back so it is possible that processing capacity isn't keeping up but they will never admit to that. In my local area (SE) I follow daily specimen cases and they have been on a downward trend for a couple of weeks so trend is in the right direction. Also admission rates in England have been falling as well particularly in L&SE which is consistent with the peak in cases seen 2-3 weeks back.

All metrics they say are relevant to relaxing restrictions are going in the right direction except the death rate which wont for several weeks but it is a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used.

The number of people who currently have the virus and the number of admissions to hospital is certainly falling. As you point out this is particularly so in London and the South East where numbers are now falling quite rapidly. Over much of the rest of England numbers are also falling but in many areas at a much slower rate.

There are, however, still a few areas where the number of people testing positive is not falling and has for some reason remained at the same fairly high level for weeks. This certainly seems to be the case around parts of Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire and South and West Yorkshire. There are even a few parts of these areas where numbers are slowly rising again, including Leicester which has been in lockdown for months. Kings Mill Hospital near Mansfield is almost full to capacity and not expecting peak levels to be reached until sometime next month. It was suggested that underlying health issues among ex miners could be a reason for current high hospital admission levels in these areas.

Great news that levels seem to be falling quickly in some areas and hopefully some restrictions can soon be lifted, but perhaps it will initially be on a regional basis if infection levels remain high in some areas.

 

[takno]

The number of people who currently have the virus and the number of admissions to hospital is certainly falling. As you point out this is particularly so in London and the South East where numbers are now falling quite rapidly. Over much of the rest of England numbers are also falling but in many areas at a much slower rate.

There are, however, still a few areas where the number of people testing positive is not falling and has for some reason remained at the same fairly high level for weeks. This certainly seems to be the case around parts of Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire and South and West Yorkshire. There are even a few parts of these areas where numbers are slowly rising again, including Leicester which has been in lockdown for months. Kings Mill Hospital near Mansfield is almost full to capacity and not expecting peak levels to be reached until sometime next month. It was suggested that underlying health issues among ex miners could be a reason for current high hospital admission levels in these areas.

Great news that levels seem to be falling quickly in some areas and hopefully some restrictions can soon be lifted, but perhaps it will initially be on a regional basis if infection levels remain high in some areas.

I think if they try to keep Leicester in lockdown a second longer than anywhere else then they will have real law and order issues. The most likely reason for numbers not falling there is that the brutal never-ending semi lockdown they've been under has stopped any natural immunity from forming.

 

[bramling]

It was suggested that underlying health issues among ex miners could be a reason for current high hospital admission levels in these areas.

Presumably that might also account for high numbers in places like the Rhondda?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The number of people who currently have the virus and the number of admissions to hospital is certainly falling. As you point out this is particularly so in London and the South East where numbers are now falling quite rapidly. Over much of the rest of England numbers are also falling but in many areas at a much slower rate.

There are, however, still a few areas where the number of people testing positive is not falling and has for some reason remained at the same fairly high level for weeks. This certainly seems to be the case around parts of Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire and South and West Yorkshire. There are even a few parts of these areas where numbers are slowly rising again, including Leicester which has been in lockdown for months. Kings Mill Hospital near Mansfield is almost full to capacity and not expecting peak levels to be reached until sometime next month. It was suggested that underlying health issues among ex miners could be a reason for current high hospital admission levels in these areas.

Great news that levels seem to be falling quickly in some areas and hopefully some restrictions can soon be lifted, but perhaps it will initially be on a regional basis if infection levels remain high in some areas.

Another outlier is Devon where case rates/100k are the lowest in England in part helped by it being rural im sure but even Exeter City is well inside bottom quartile or is it that the new Kent variant hasn't got to S.West or has it virulence declined?

 

[ChrisC]

Presumably that might also account for high numbers in places like the Rhondda?

It could very well be. It does seem to be the ex mining areas of Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and South Yorkshire where infection levels have remained fairly static at a high level for weeks. Most of these ex miners will all be aged 70+ and many have underlying respiratory issues. I heard it mentioned tonight on BBC East Midlands Today concerning high levels in the Mansfield area and I hadn’t heard it mentioned before.