How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[yorksrob]

I agree with your phasing of the easing of restrictions, but would like to differ slightly on the timings

My guess would be

• Schools and universities to return after the February half term, possibly in stages or on a part time basis until after the Easter holidays
• Non essential retail and leisure centres to re-open early March, perhaps to coincide with the budget on March 3rd, or shortly afterwards. The chancellor will need to say something to sweeten the impact of the tax rises he is going to announce, so he may announce a date for the re-opening of the hospitality sector on the day of the budget, as they do need a few weeks to prepare and order stock etc.
• Hospitality to re-open sometime between the anniversary of the first lockdown (March 23rd is a Tuesday this year) and Easter, but probably on a weekday this time rather than a Saturday. Restrictions will be similar to when the reopened last July, with no "meal only" requirement, but track & trace, table service only and 1 metre + social distancing.
• Crowds allowed back into sports stadiums from mid to late April, possibly on a limited capacity at first.

Other remaining restrictions could be progressively eased in the spring, with restrictions on internal travel within the UK lifted in time for the bank holiday at the beginning of May.

As ever, this is all speculation, or perhaps even wishful thinking, but by the beginning of March we should have a better idea of the impact of the vaccination program, and the extent to which vaccines prevent transmission as well as give immunity from the disease.

"Stay at home" needs to be in the first tranche of relaxations.

 

[brad465]

If Sunak pushes through a harsh budget, then it is almost certainly the beginning of the end for Boris.

I don't doubt for a second that his eyes are fixed firmly on the big prize. But he still has to push Johnson out of the way by winning over enough of his party, which with all the covid-phobia is no mean task.

Putting these two points together, if Sunak really wants the top job then he will push a harsh budget through providing his own approval is not greatly diminished by it, especially given he also appears to be against restrictions lasting much longer.

 

[bramling]

I agree with your phasing of the easing of restrictions, but would like to differ slightly on the timings

My guess would be

• Schools and universities to return after the February half term, possibly in stages or on a part time basis until after the Easter holidays
• Non essential retail and leisure centres to re-open early March, perhaps to coincide with the budget on March 3rd, or shortly afterwards. The chancellor will need to say something to sweeten the impact of the tax rises he is going to announce, so he may announce a date for the re-opening of the hospitality sector on the day of the budget, as they do need a few weeks to prepare and order stock etc.
• Hospitality to re-open sometime between the anniversary of the first lockdown (March 23rd is a Tuesday this year) and Easter, but probably on a weekday this time rather than a Saturday. Restrictions will be similar to when the reopened last July, with no "meal only" requirement, but track & trace, table service only and 1 metre + social distancing.
• Crowds allowed back into sports stadiums from mid to late April, possibly on a limited capacity at first.

Other remaining restrictions could be progressively eased in the spring, with restrictions on internal travel within the UK lifted in time for the bank holiday at the beginning of May.

As ever, this is all speculation, or perhaps even wishful thinking, but by the beginning of March we should have a better idea of the impact of the vaccination program, and the extent to which vaccines prevent transmission as well as give immunity from the disease.

What happens if the vaccines don’t have the hoped-for effects? At some point someone will have to have the balls to say that we will simply have to return to normal. There’s too much shifting of goalposts going on.

Personally I’d suggest May will be too late for abandonment or movement restrictions. I am expecting to be able to resume a fairly normal way of life on that score by the time the clocks go forward, and if that doesn’t happen then I’ll be doing it anyway. I’ve been prepared to stomach the winter months, but I am damned if I’m losing another spring/summer. None of us knows how long we have left.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Jan 2021 ==

Putting these two points together, if Sunak really wants the top job then he will push a harsh budget through providing his own approval is not greatly diminished by it, especially given he also appears to be against restrictions lasting much longer.

That could be risky, though. If people associate furlough - very much a Sunak initiative - with the need to increase taxes then he could be in serious trouble, especially with people who haven’t benefited from furlough.

 

[Bantamzen]

Putting these two points together, if Sunak really wants the top job then he will push a harsh budget through providing his own approval is not greatly diminished by it, especially given he also appears to be against restrictions lasting much longer.

What Sunak will have to do is convince his party that any harsh budget measures are as a result of the PM not listening to him earlier, and that had furlough ended when he wanted it these would not have been needed.

 

[Bishopstone]

Lots of nasty-sounding tax changes are floated in the press prior to every Budget. The abolition of higher rate tax relief on pension contributions has been floated annually for a decade or more.

I’m pretty sure there will be no dramatic tax changes for individuals this side of 2024. Corporation Tax will be increased, as will the Business Rates paid by ‘big box’ warehouses. Fuel Duty is likely to be increased, coincident with the big climate conference in Scotland, later this year, which will be unpopular but difficult for Labour to oppose.

Borrowing will take the strain, again. I struggle to find any political, economic or philosophical imperatives that would drive Sunak to acquire the label of the ‘tax grab Chancellor’.

Obviously, come back and laugh at me in March when he’s done a full Corbynite budget speech!

 

[Skimpot flyer]

What Sunak will have to do is convince his party that any harsh budget measures are as a result of the PM not listening to him earlier, and that had furlough ended when he wanted it these would not have been needed.

Too harsh a budget would risk any tentative recovery being flattened, and lead to Sunak being forever known as the Iron chancellor...

 

[Bantamzen]

Too harsh a budget would risk any tentative recovery being flattened, and lead to Sunak being forever known as the Iron chancellor...

Maybe, but one way or another the extra spending deficit can't be ignored for another 3 years. His thinking might be get the bad one out of the way, then throw a few bones closer to the next general election.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Reality is, we're looking at measures for another 18 months because of far too much inaction at the start of the pandemic, open borders etc.

For sure the govt have been inept putting short term interests over the longer term but by not being bold they have made it a whole lot worse. My view is they now realise that and we will be under restrictions for most of this year albeit i would expect some relaxation over late spring/summer as the virus will naturally abate like all respiratory viruses do in Northern hemisphere but it will flare up again come Autumn.

 

[DB]

For sure the govt have been inept putting short term interests over the longer term but by not being bold they have made it a whole lot worse. My view is they now realise that and we will be under restrictions for most of this year albeit i would expect some relaxation over late spring/summer as the virus will naturally abate like all respiratory viruses do in Northern hemisphere but it will flare up again come Autumn.

The country cannot afford - financially and otherwise - to carry on hiding behind the sofa every few months. It's really time for people to grow up and accept that this is not going to go away. Most of the people particularly at risk will be vaccinated by the autumn, and the government really should get to work now on plans for increasing NHS capacity permanently. It is going to increase every winter, just like all respiratory viruses do, but the level of immunity will mean that it's much less than this year.

What exactly would 'being bold' entail in any case? If you meen longer and more draconian restrictions, that's unlikely to have achieved anything - there is no correlation between how draconian the measures are and the infection rate. This can be seen by looking at a table of the top countries for infections and comparing it to level of restrictions - it simply doesn't match at all. Stanford University have concluded this is a study of all European countries.

 

[notlob.divad]

It was barely possible for Australia and they've done massive damage to their society in the process - plus it's summer there now, so even in the southern parts the virus would be in decline anyway

Silly statement given two of the places in the world currently causing the most worry are South Africa and Brazil which (checks notes) are in their summer as well.

 

[Scotrail12]

Silly statement given two of the places in the world currently causing the most worry are South Africa and Brazil which (checks notes) are in their summer as well.

Generally, virus rates would decline in summer just like how we don't really get much flu in summer either. South Africa & Brazil are facing new strains so a different situation.

 

[brad465]

Silly statement given two of the places in the world currently causing the most worry are South Africa and Brazil which (checks notes) are in their summer as well.

Large parts of Brazil, including the Amazonas region this new variant is rampaging, are in a tropical climate where seasons are dry and wet (or wet all year), not summer and winter. I can't find where regional variations in Brazil infections are right now, but the very southern part may have a winter/summer variation, but the tropics definitely don't, so seasonal behaviour is different.

South Africa is harder to explain admittingly, but the argument that where it's really hot, spreading indoors is more favourable for sake of sheltering away (which was seen in the South-West US middle of last year) maybe applicable. There definitely appears to be a seasonal correlation in the Northern Hemisphere through Europe, North America and even in North Asia where South Korea and Japan were doing very well so far, are now seeing higher case rates, that maybe simply beyond human control.

 

[yorksrob]

Most of the people particularly at risk will be vaccinated by the autumn, and the government really should get to work now on plans for increasing NHS capacity permanently. It is going to increase every winter, just like all respiratory viruses do, but the level of immunity will mean that it's much less than this year.

Spot on. If they're expecting increased winter hospitalisations going forward, they need to be expanding/reconfiguring the NHS to accommodate it.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I do think Sunak will increase taxes on fuel and tobacco. The danger area is alcohol - any increase is likely to impact on the licencing industry and I think everyone on this forum agrees that the hospitality sector has been used as the biggest punch bag since last March. Sunak needs to protect businesses like pubs and restaurants and to do this he cannot enforce any more costs in beer and spirits.

The furlough scheme is a worry for me. At the moment the current deadline for furlough is the 30th April. I'm anticipating Sunak extending this yet again until July/August or even September by which time it will have been in place for up to 18 months.

The unemployment issues will have to come whether we like it or not - furloughing in some cases is putting off the inevitable of lagging businesses giving their staff their P45s. The problem there is - a business goes bust when furlough goes so how does the furlough money get paid back?

Boris Johnson will need to seriously dig his heels in and cut furlough/restrictions down like an axeman to begin the heeling process for the whole Country. Unfortunately, from what we know about Boris he is simply going to drag his feet with 'Hrrrm's and be constantly influenced by Whitty, Valance and the rest of the senior medical team.

Whether we like it or not I have a feeling the tiers will return with a vengeance again. I don't believe we will be subject to lockdown 4 - the draconian measures in place with the police acting like Nazi Germany will only lead to a spring/summer of potential riots and public disorder. This is a situation Home Secretary Priti Patel needs to get a grip of - police force chiefs are already complaining of demand with cases of domestic violence and mental health spiralling out of control because of lockdown.

I suspect 'tiering' will be in place for most of the year with a slow gradual phasing down period whilst the government constantly monitors Covid levels, not just in the UK but overseas.

I don't think we are likely to see things like music festivals, concerts, open sporting events or huge gatherings in 2021. I do think we will be able to mix and socialise again during the summer but in a controlled sensible environment. Sadly nightclubs probably will remain off limits for the foreseeable future.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab hinted on the Andrew Marr show this morning that he hopes to have all adults 'jabbed' by September. Even if the elderly folks are vaccinated by the spring, the government are not going to open the flood gates to a restriction free country for a long time yet.

CJ

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Looking at the much better virus data today - whilst accepting that hospitals are still in desperate difficulty because of the usual lags - then I can’t see the ‘baby steps’ release programme through until June being tolerated, or economically viable. Once the over-70s are jabbed and hospital bed occupancy is on a solid downwards trajectory, the bullet will need to be bitten and most of the restrictions lifted quickly.

Hospital admissions data is days behind case data for reasons I don't understand in this situation and it has dropped back a little but at over 4.1k/admissions per day. The real issue currently is the better treatment regime now means people stay in hospital longer so the hospitals will remain under pressure for longer and as this is there only focus currently there will be no relaxation.

My thoughts on furlough remain the same as 6 months or more ago. It should support those who cannot work due to their business having to remain closed due to restrictions. Hospitality, events etc. How many on here would moan if they couldn't go to the football, rugby etc. because they'd gone bust.

I'd stop those companies who haven't been significantly affected by the restrictions and have the rest who are in the half way house assessed case by case. Or offer flexi furlough with a cap.

Spot ive become aware of businesses that could trade deciding to furlough all staff as its economical advantageous for them to do so - I appreciate this maybe a bit harsh as there are probably other factors so what I would do is cut back teh amount now to max 25k.

 

[Class 33]

I tried to find a clip on YouTube of Van Tam at one of the Downing Street News Conferences in the latter part of last year, when he was asked the question "If a vaccine is found, will the requirement for social distancing end?" To which he said something along the lines of "Yes if a vaccine is found, there will be no further need for social distancing.". But I can't find that footage. I think it was around September or October he said that.

Anyway here we are. A vaccine has been found and nearly 4 million people have been administered with it so far. And by mid February, over 13 million people should have been administered. But as yet, still no definite sign really of when this dreaded social distancing nonsense will definitely end. Certainly if we go into the early summer(May), by which time over 30 million people will have been administered, numbers in hospital with Coronavirus will be very very low, numbers of daily Coronavirus deaths will be very very low, and yet this social distancing and face mask wearing requirement nonsense is still dragging on, along with still frequent Downing Street News Conferences, it will be absolutely ridiculous beyond belief. By then all restrictions really need to have been scrapped altogether. We just can't go on and on with this stupid nonsense.

I've been unemployed a year now, and it's near impossible to get another job whilst this social distancing nonsense has dragged on for so long. I'm not expecting to get another job until at least social distancing has ended. And I really hope that comes sooner rather than later. Loads of others unemployed will be feeling just the same.

Regarding festivals. Interestingly Glastonbury festival have extended their refund deadlines from the end of January until the end of March. Which means Michael and Emily are holding on a bit longer, in the hope that maybe things would have changed significantly for the better by then and they'll be able to run their festival. Personally, I think chances are their festival will not be able to go ahead this year. As I don't think the easing of restrictions and advanced announcements of when restrictions will be eased, are going to pan out in time for them. I think most, if not all festivals in the early part of the festival season - May and June, will end up not going ahead. But I am a little more confident of festivals in the second half of the season - July/August/September, being able to go ahead, more so the smaller festivals.

 

[Yew]

I suspect 'tiering' will be in place for most of the year with a slow gradual phasing down period whilst the government constantly monitors Covid levels, not just in the UK but overseas.

I don't think we are likely to see things like music festivals, concerts, open sporting events or huge gatherings in 2021. I do think we will be able to mix and socialise again during the summer but in a controlled sensible environment. Sadly nightclubs probably will remain off limits for the foreseeable future.


CJ

So more restrictive than last summer, when we didn't have millions of vaccinations?

 

[Chester1]

There’s going to come a point when those still at work are quite literally going to have had enough of this. Certainly at my place fury continues to notch up. Perhaps that will be what triggers the civil disobedience.

You have been posting stuff like that for several months. You have also several times I will put up with the restrictions until X date but no further. There is not going to be an explosion of anger. It would have happened already.

I am relatively anti restrictions but there seems to be near bottomless support for doing anything that might save lives, despite the same not apply to almost any other cause of death. Unfortunately a majority of people seem to have a secure job, or are retired or furloughed and not thinking about the future, live with a partner and live with a house with a garden. Unfortunately that seems to be enough for the majority of people. It leaves the minority whose jobs are at risk (or gone) and those who live alone in awful position.

I booked time off in November. I intend to unbook it because I don't expect foreign (or UK) holidays to be legal in November. I will make the most of the summer.

 

[bramling]

You have been posting stuff like that for several months. You have also several times I will put up with the restrictions until X date but no further. There is not going to be an explosion of anger. It would have happened already.

I am relatively anti restrictions but there seems to be near bottomless support for doing anything that might save lives, despite the same not apply to almost any other cause of death. Unfortunately a majority of people seem to have a secure job, or are retired or furloughed and not thinking about the future, live with a partner and live with a house with a garden. Unfortunately that seems to be enough for the majority of people. It leaves the minority whose jobs are at risk (or gone) and those who live alone in awful position.

I booked time off in November. I intend to unbook it because I don't expect foreign (or UK) holidays to be legal in November. I will make the most of the summer.

You may well be right, no matter how irrational it all is. I also agree that some of the things you mention, furlough in particular, do seem effective in pacifying people.

I do think there will come a point where enough is enough, though. I’ve thought for a while the transition from winter to spring this year will mark that point. I guess we’ll see...

We are of course already seeing elements of civil disobedience, as can plainly be seen simply by going out - people are simply not responding to the “stay at home” message, and that’s during what’s been pretty miserable weather round here. We’re only going to see more of that as spring arrives. There also comes the point where the law enforcers decide enough is enough - notwithstanding the exceptions like Cressida Dick or Derbyshire Police, most of the police are utterly sick of this already, and they’re only going to get more dispirited as their credibility and authority goes down the toilet as more and more people treat the restrictions liberally.

There surely has to come a point when we *have* to move on from this. As a country we seem to have gone collectively bonkers, no doubt part of this is being driven by the sewer-grade politicians we have at the moment. Fancy nonsense like our capital city seriously contemplating an “outsider charge” as an example of the sort of rubbish we are seeing.

 

[Chester1]

You may well be right, no matter how irrational it all is. I also agree that some of the things you mention, furlough in particular, do seem effective in pacifying people.

I do think there will come a point where enough is enough, though. I’ve thought for a while the transition from winter to spring this year will mark that point. I guess we’ll see...

We are of course already seeing elements of civil disobedience, as can plainly be seen simply by going out - people are simply not responding to the “stay at home” message, and that’s during what’s been pretty miserable weather round here. We’re only going to see more of that as spring arrives. There also comes the point where the law enforcers decide enough is enough - notwithstanding the exceptions like Cressida Dick or Derbyshire Police, most of the police are utterly sick of this already, and they’re only going to get more dispirited as their credibility and authority goes down the toilet as more and more people treat the restrictions liberally.

There surely has to come a point when we *have* to move on from this. As a country we seem to have gone collectively bonkers, no doubt part of this is being driven by the sewer-grade politicians we have at the moment. Fancy nonsense like our capital city seriously contemplating an “outsider charge” as an example of the sort of rubbish we are seeing.

Many love to compare the pandemic with WW2. It's worth noting that rationing lasted 8 years after the 6 year war ended. Compulsory ID lasted a similar length of time. People have a remarkable tolerance to restrictions on their freedom after a while. Many people who are breaking the law are supporters of lockdown. There is an element of needing to feel they are morally right. I have received criticism for going on holiday abroad three times during the pandemic, almost all from people who have broken the law. Some how its wrong to legally go on holiday in tier 2 or 3 but quietly breaking the law when seeing friends and partners is acceptable. That sort of mentality limits the political backlash. I have said before, I don't expect the Covid legislation to be allowed to expire until spring 2022. I am not sure 20,000 deaths from respiratory viruses in a flu + covid season will be politically acceptable now.

 

[DustyBin]

Many love to compare the pandemic with WW2. It's worth noting that rationing lasted 8 years after the 6 year war ended. Compulsory ID lasted a similar length of time. People have a remarkable tolerance to restrictions on their freedom after a while. Many people who are breaking the law are supporters of lockdown. There is an element of needing to feel they are morally right. I have received criticism for going on holiday abroad three times during the pandemic, almost all from people who have broken the law. Some how its wrong to legally go on holiday in tier 2 or 3 but quietly breaking the law when seeing friends and partners is acceptable. That sort of mentality limits the political backlash. I have said before, I don't expect the Covid legislation to be allowed to expire until spring 2022. I am not sure 20,000 deaths from respiratory viruses in a flu + covid season will be politically acceptable now.

I think you’ve nailed it there in regard to people getting on their high horses whilst breaking the rules when it suits. It infuriates me, if they want to live under restrictions then they should live under them, except they don’t really want to, they want everybody else to.

I fear you may be correct regarding ongoing restrictions, we’re in danger of sleep walking into a full on nanny state. People are losing all sense of perspective, there was somebody on the news the other day, they must have been in their 60s or early 70s, saying how they used to live with the threat of nuclear war but could never have imagined anything as terrible as this virus. What planet are these people on?!

 

[Bantamzen]

You have been posting stuff like that for several months. You have also several times I will put up with the restrictions until X date but no further. There is not going to be an explosion of anger. It would have happened already.

I am relatively anti restrictions but there seems to be near bottomless support for doing anything that might save lives, despite the same not apply to almost any other cause of death. Unfortunately a majority of people seem to have a secure job, or are retired or furloughed and not thinking about the future, live with a partner and live with a house with a garden. Unfortunately that seems to be enough for the majority of people. It leaves the minority whose jobs are at risk (or gone) and those who live alone in awful position.

I booked time off in November. I intend to unbook it because I don't expect foreign (or UK) holidays to be legal in November. I will make the most of the summer.

I'll openly admit that I am very surprised, shocked even at how much the pubic have been willing to put up with all this. I felt for sure there would have been more in the way of unrest by now. But as has been pointed out, despite some harsh language, and the occasional show of enforcement, the rules have been largely unenforced save the most public of violations. Add into the mix the furlough scheme and working from home & maybe I shouldn't have been quite so surprised after all.

However don't fall into the trap that compliance, or at least semi-compliance means there is bottomless support. I've noticed in my own social circles a noticeable difference between people who feel secure in their jobs & those that do not. And it is those in the former group that are getting more restless by the day, and looking firmly at the vaccines as the start of the end game. Those in the latter may still be happy for more restrictions, but those furloughed may soon find themselves in the former group and not feeling quite so secure. There is little more galvanising than finding the world fall out from under your feet. If restrictions continue long into 2021, a lot more people will find themselves staring into the financial abyss.

Many love to compare the pandemic with WW2. It's worth noting that rationing lasted 8 years after the 6 year war ended. Compulsory ID lasted a similar length of time. People have a remarkable tolerance to restrictions on their freedom after a while. Many people who are breaking the law are supporters of lockdown. There is an element of needing to feel they are morally right. I have received criticism for going on holiday abroad three times during the pandemic, almost all from people who have broken the law. Some how its wrong to legally go on holiday in tier 2 or 3 but quietly breaking the law when seeing friends and partners is acceptable. That sort of mentality limits the political backlash. I have said before, I don't expect the Covid legislation to be allowed to expire until spring 2022. I am not sure 20,000 deaths from respiratory viruses in a flu + covid season will be politically acceptable now.

The world is a very different place to 1945. Back then people were just glad to be coming out of a devastating war, a war fought for the very freedoms we are discussing today. Today we are faced with a crisis where the cure may be worse than the disease.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Many love to compare the pandemic with WW2. It's worth noting that rationing lasted 8 years after the 6 year war ended. Compulsory ID lasted a similar length of time. People have a remarkable tolerance to restrictions on their freedom after a while. Many people who are breaking the law are supporters of lockdown. There is an element of needing to feel they are morally right. I have received criticism for going on holiday abroad three times during the pandemic, almost all from people who have broken the law. Some how its wrong to legally go on holiday in tier 2 or 3 but quietly breaking the law when seeing friends and partners is acceptable. That sort of mentality limits the political backlash. I have said before, I don't expect the Covid legislation to be allowed to expire until spring 2022. I am not sure 20,000 deaths from respiratory viruses in a flu + covid season will be politically acceptable now.

Good post and I agree that some of the Covid measures will still linger into the spring 2022. I have a feeling the dreaded face masks and social distancing are the ones that we won't see the back of for a while.

CJ

 

[yorksrob]

Many love to compare the pandemic with WW2. It's worth noting that rationing lasted 8 years after the 6 year war ended. Compulsory ID lasted a similar length of time. People have a remarkable tolerance to restrictions on their freedom after a while. Many people who are breaking the law are supporters of lockdown. There is an element of needing to feel they are morally right. I have received criticism for going on holiday abroad three times during the pandemic, almost all from people who have broken the law. Some how its wrong to legally go on holiday in tier 2 or 3 but quietly breaking the law when seeing friends and partners is acceptable. That sort of mentality limits the political backlash. I have said before, I don't expect the Covid legislation to be allowed to expire until spring 2022. I am not sure 20,000 deaths from respiratory viruses in a flu + covid season will be politically acceptable now.

The world is a very different place to 1945. Back then people were just glad to be coming out of a devastating war, a war fought for the very freedoms we are discussing today. Today we are faced with a crisis where the cure may be worse than the disease.

And the population wasn't expected to remain in solitary confinement for months on end during WWII. The two aren't comparable.

 

[Richard Scott]

And the population wasn't expected to remain in solitary confinement for months on end during WWII. The two aren't comparable.

This is true, also people understood the exact reasons for any restrictions, many of the current ones have no scientific basis and are just made up by the politicians who want to be seen to be doing something. We've lost all sense of rationale.

 

[yorksrob]

This is true, also people understood the exact reasons for any restrictions, many of the current ones have no scientific basis and are just made up by the politicians who want to be seen to be doing something. We've lost all sense of rationale.

Very true as well.

 

[philosopher]

You have been posting stuff like that for several months. You have also several times I will put up with the restrictions until X date but no further. There is not going to be an explosion of anger. It would have happened already.

I am relatively anti restrictions but there seems to be near bottomless support for doing anything that might save lives, despite the same not apply to almost any other cause of death. Unfortunately a majority of people seem to have a secure job, or are retired or furloughed and not thinking about the future, live with a partner and live with a house with a garden. Unfortunately that seems to be enough for the majority of people. It leaves the minority whose jobs are at risk (or gone) and those who live alone in awful position.

I booked time off in November. I intend to unbook it because I don't expect foreign (or UK) holidays to be legal in November. I will make the most of the summer.

The continuing high level of support for these restrictions, whether it is accurate or not I think is going to delay the easing of restrictions somewhat. Put simply if the majority want certain restrictions to remain, then they are likely to remain.

 

[trebor79]

I can't see social distancing lasting longer than the end of spring to be honest. Boris made a big part of talking about non-pharmaceutical measures ending and social distancing is the most disruptive measure of all.

I'm hopeful that it'll be mask recommendations and health advice and things like that rather than the government dictating what can and cant open.

People should become a bit mindful of keeping a little distance even when this is all over, but Class 33 isn't implying that nobody should go near each other - he just wants a return to the days when you can be physically closer to people and nobody will really care. Same with the masks - I think they'll be recommended for a while yet, and I'm certainly happy to always have one with whenever I go out further than the driveway. But nothing like current measures in either sense.

So long as masks are recommendations, and not mandated then fair enough. Personally, I don't think they will be recommended, the mandate will be removed and that will be that, though of course people are free to wear whatever they like. I think the government has realised they are completely useless in everyday settings, hence the resistance to the recent clamouring to mandate their use outdoors. They'll keep the current "Hands, face , space" messaging as they might as well not confuse people further for a few more weeks and more importantly (from their POV) it avoids admitting this divisive measure was completely and utterly pointless (as the government itself told us repeatedly for months last year).
Once theatres, stadia and hospitality reopens there will be immense pressure to remove the mask mandate anyway as it must moderate demand for such things.

I bought some petrol at the weekend and had to take my face covering off in the kiosk as my glasses steamed up the the extent that I couldn't even see where the chip and pin machine was, let alone use it! Nobody batted an eyelid.

 

[brad465]

One thing that might drive the end for social distancing and many other restrictions is what other countries do, because if how lockdowns came about is anything to go by, copying other regimes seems to be common for "safety". The question is who would make the first move? Most of Europe is behind us on the vaccine rollout for now, so we can rule most EU countries out for the next few months. The US is a big question mark, other than that some states may lift almost everything fairly soon if they're not having too many problems, but the national picture will be a long wait. If the seasonal pattern sees a massive drop in infections in Sweden I can see them lifting much of the [lesser] restrictions they have in place and might lead some others to follow given all the coverage they've been getting.

As for whether we'd be the first to relax most things it could go either way I think: our relative success with the vaccine rollout so far puts us in a good place providing the rollout continues at good pace, and for all the problems of jingoistic attitudes in our Government, the same attitudes would be capitalised on if we do things first. However expect such easement plans to be met with very vocal opposition.

 

[Mag_seven]

The continuing high level of support for these restrictions, whether it is accurate or not I think is going to delay the easing of restrictions somewhat. Put simply if the majority want certain restrictions to remain, then they are likely to remain.

No - that cannot be allowed to happen. Economic factors plus most of the vulnerable being vaccinated must mean the end of restrictions sooner rather than later regardless of what "opinion polls" say. Remember it will soon be a year that we have been living under restrictions when they were supposed to only last 3 weeks!