New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Domh245]

But weren't we told T4 was not enough to stop the new variant spreading; do we think that may prove to be inaccurate?

It may be true. Comparing the graphs of regional infection rates and age infection rates, there's a clear corresponding drop off with the Ages 2 - school year 11 cohorts. The fact that we'll never see "true" tier 4 (full restrictions on everything apart from schools) as it was imposed after most schools broke up and is unlikely to be around for long after the current lockdown begins to be eased means we'll never know how effective it would have been on it's own.

 

[yorkie]

The latest round of ONS infection survey data is out, and it seems to suggest that areas where the new variant was found to be rapidly spreading initially have already peaked:

London especially appears to have turned a corner markedly,....

Sadiq Khan disagrees:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55588163

The spread of Covid in London is "out of control" according to Sadiq Khan,

Time will tell, but based on previous things he has said/done, I have already lost respect for Sadiq Khan and so I find it difficult to believe anything he says.

 

[brad465]

Sadiq Khan disagrees:

Covid-19: 'Major incident' declared by London Mayor Sadiq Khan

The mayor says in some parts of London 1 in 20 people has Covid-19, as he declares a "major incident".

www.bbc.co.uk

Time will tell, but based on previous things he has said/done, I have already lost respect for Sadiq Khan and so I find it difficult to believe anything he says.

He's probably focusing more on the hospitalisation rates but states the infection levels given their apparent starkness. To be fair they are still high, but having turned a corner I expect things will improve from here, given both the vaccine rollout and the high proportion of infections there providing extra community immunity.

I do think given the ONS estimate current infection levels they should at least try and estimate total infections to date (and possibly reinfections, even if this is a small value), and in case immunity is not long term, maybe a separate measure since September, which captures this apparent second wave and all infections associated with it.

 

[Domh245]

Even if infections begin falling again, they're still at a high level which together with a hospital system already at capacity means that we're not exactly out of the woods. Also worth noting though that "major incident" is pretty much just a magic set of words that allow a lot of bureaucracy to get cut out and release funding

 

[takno]

Even if infections begin falling again, they're still at a high level which together with a hospital system already at capacity means that we're not exactly out of the woods. Also worth noting though that "major incident" is pretty much just a magic set of words that allow a lot of bureaucracy to get cut out and release funding

Right now I'd settle for some evidence that level 3-4 plus school closures is enough to control the spread. Sturgeon's started havering like a lunatic about closing takeaways and all sorts, and you know if she does it Boris will follow suit.

 

[35B]

Sadiq Khan disagrees:

Covid-19: 'Major incident' declared by London Mayor Sadiq Khan

The mayor says in some parts of London 1 in 20 people has Covid-19, as he declares a "major incident".

www.bbc.co.uk

Time will tell, but based on previous things he has said/done, I have already lost respect for Sadiq Khan and so I find it difficult to believe anything he says.

Both may be true - if that graph is correct (and at the 95% confidence interval, cases could still be rising), the lag between infection and hospitalisations may support the case both that incidence is falling and that there is a situation worthy of describing as a "major incident".

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jan 2021 ==

He's probably focusing more on the hospitalisation rates but states the infection levels given their apparent starkness. To be fair they are still high, but having turned a corner I expect things will improve from here, given both the vaccine rollout and the high proportion of infections there providing extra community immunity.

I do think given the ONS estimate current infection levels they should at least try and estimate total infections to date (and possibly reinfections, even if this is a small value), and in case immunity is not long term, maybe a separate measure since September, which captures this apparent second wave and all infections associated with it.

If they have turned a corner - that London graph is within the margin of error, and has too few data points to really confirm or deny a trend.

 

[Pete_uk]

I must have missed that memo. I thought life was for slavishly avoiding death at all costs

Even then most people dont get out alive.

Sadiq Khan disagrees:

Covid-19: 'Major incident' declared by London Mayor Sadiq Khan

The mayor says in some parts of London 1 in 20 people has Covid-19, as he declares a "major incident".

www.bbc.co.uk

Time will tell, but based on previous things he has said/done, I have already lost respect for Sadiq Khan and so I find it difficult to believe anything he says.

It's out of control? My he's certainly on the ball.

I must admit, I am a bit worried about the coming week or two in terms of hospital admissions. I'm also worried how we will cope given that this virus is not going away and will flare up especially in winter.

 

[yorkie]

Both may be true - if that graph is correct (and at the 95% confidence interval, cases could still be rising), the lag between infection and hospitalisations may support the case both that incidence is falling and that there is a situation worthy of describing as a "major incident"....

I don't see how it can be true that London has turned a corner and yet is still out of control. Anything else is separate to that point.

I'm also worried how we will cope given that this virus is not going away and will flare up especially in winter.

As discussed in other threads, once the vast majority of older people have been vaccinated, hospitalisations will be drastically reduced. Immunity appears to be long lasting.

 

[Domh245]

I don't see how it can be true that London has turned a corner and yet is still out of control.

You can be hurtling towards another car at 100mph and just figured out how the brakes work - you've "turned a corner" in that you're slowing down, but you're still travelling at a high speed towards the wall with inevitable consequence. To expand the analogy further, if the other car is the hospital capacity then until you either brake so that your speed is slower than theirs, or they accelerate, there's going to be a collision

Infections are reducing, but are still very high, so consequently you'd still expect a high number of hospitalisations to be occurring. The fact that hospitals are already near, at, or beyond capacity, have a higher rate of admission than discharge as it is, and will continue to have a high level of admission for weeks to come is going to have inevitable consequences. It's certainly not a situation that I'd call under control, not that there is much that can be done about it now tbf

 

[yorkie]

You can be hurtling towards another car at 100mph and just figured out how the brakes work - you've "turned a corner" in that you're slowing down, but you're still travelling at a high speed towards the wall with inevitable consequence. To expand the analogy further, if the other car is the hospital capacity then until you either brake so that your speed is slower than theirs, or they accelerate, there's going to be a collision

Infections are reducing, but are still very high, so consequently you'd still expect a high number of hospitalisations to be occurring. The fact that hospitals are already near, at, or beyond capacity, have a higher rate of admission than discharge as it is, and will continue to have a high level of admission for weeks to come is going to have inevitable consequences.

I see what you are saying but to suggest something is now out of control paints a different picture, but....

It's certainly not a situation that I'd call under control, not that there is much that can be done about it now tbf

....well that's the thing; it does seem to be a bit of a fallacy to suggest that a virus can be controlled. But that is what we have been told is being done, and we are now being told that control has been lost at a time when others are saying things that sound almost like the opposite of that.

I think this does demonstrate how so much of this is a play on words and semantics, with some politicians, 'scientists' and others cherry picking language that portrays a picture that suits their particular agenda.

 

[Richard Scott]

I see what you are saying but to suggest something is now out of control paints a different picture, but....


....well that's the thing; it does seem to be a bit of a fallacy to suggest that a virus can be controlled. But that is what we have been told is being done, and we are now being told that control has been lost at a time when others are saying things that sound almost like the opposite of that.

I think this does demonstrate how so much of this is a play on words and semantics, with some politicians, 'scientists' and others cherry picking language that portrays a picture that suits their particular agenda.

Agree, could say we never had control of it in the first place! To say it's out of control implies we can do something about it, unfortunately we can't.

 

[HSTEd]

Well if the lockdown was going to work it probably would have worked by now.

Schools have been closed since ~21st December and yet cases keep rising even in areas that were in Tier 4 from not long after.

 

[3141]

Really, I've been in the profession for 23 years so think I know a little about it.

So are you telling me I was wrong when I said that what you called "teaching age" is from about 22 to retirement and beyond?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

One salutary fact is that the highest-ever Covid-related 1,325 deaths within 28 days of testing positive is something to remind all of us of how deadly the viral strains can be.

 

[Richard Scott]

So are you telling me I was wrong when I said that what you called "teaching age" is from about 22 to retirement and beyond?

Not even sure what point you're trying to make with that statement (what do you mean by retirement and beyond?), what I was saying is almost all teachers are not going to have any issues with the virus, most retire around 60, and any who are vulnerable will be shielding. I maintain that schools should be open as the risk is very very low. My point was we keep going on about this virus, children are having their education ruined which is a disproportionate response to the issue.

 

[py_megapixel]

Covid: Wales' schools and colleges shut until half term unless cases fall

Lockdown measures across Wales will also be extended and strengthened, the first minister says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Welsh schools are now shut.

Schools and colleges had already been told they would have to teach online until 18 January at the earliest, however this will now continue if cases of the virus do not fall "materially" before the next review date on 29 January.
If cases do not drop, that would mean schools would reopen on 22 February at the earliest, and internal exams have also been cancelled.
But teaching unions have warned that more uniformed lateral flow testing needs to be in place and teachers must be vaccinated before talks on how to reopen schools can begin.
Speaking at the Welsh Government coronavirus briefing, Mr Drakeford said people working at special schools and school and college staff who were at risk would soon be vaccinated.
Cardiff University has also confirmed that a phased return to in-person teaching has been cancelled, with learning continuing online for most students until 22 February.

 

[TheBeard]

65 Teachers have died of Covid, it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated (from ONS website)https://schoolsweek.co.uk/ons-figures-reveal-65-covid-related-deaths-in-education/
This was back in May from the ONS however its a lot more now, this includes a few in further education, but mostly Teachers and there are more since herehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54146451 states 126 way back in September

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

67 Teachers have died of Covid, it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated

Could you provide a source please?

 

[brad465]

Well if the lockdown was going to work it probably would have worked by now.

Schools have been closed since ~21st December and yet cases keep rising even in areas that were in Tier 4 from not long after.

You say that but according to these graphs from the ONS infection survey, rates among school ages are falling (but still high); the issue is they've probably now got spreading among the other age groups more, but with schools in reduced attendance now, if they are responsible for a large amount of direct and/or indirect spread, the rest of the population rates should follow suit, in conjunction with vaccine rollout likely to reduce at least case severity:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[Freightmaster]

...it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated

Out of curiosity, what is your definition of "key workers"??





MARK

 

[farleigh]

67 Teachers have died of Covid, it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated

How do you know this?

Could you share?

 

[takno]

67 Teachers have died of Covid, it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated

There are around half a million teachers in England alone, so probably around 600k for the whole UK. I haven't seen the 67 stat, but I suspect if it's correct at all that it includes another few hundred thousand support staff. So, even taking the stat at face value, one teacher in 10k has died. What leads you to believe that's massively out of line with any other profession, "key worker" or otherwise?

 

[JamesT]

67 Teachers have died of Covid, it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated

Given the limited volumes of vaccine available, clearly the correct strategy to reduce deaths is to vaccinate the highest risk categories first then work our way down.
Most key workers are neither elderly nor have underlying health conditions making them more susceptible to the virus. I think we can trade off some of them getting ill whilst we vaccinate those more likely to die if they catch COVID.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Apparently Chris Whitty is to feature in government information adverts giving safety advice during the current lockdown.

I'm sure that's the last think you want to see on the box before you turn in for the night - Whitty's grim boat race giving everyone the willies.

What was it Nick Ross always said at the end of Crimewatch - ''Don't have nightmares''.

CJ

 

[Richard Scott]

67 Teachers have died of Covid, it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated

Would be interested to know where that's come from as, if true, would've thought the union would be making something of this but they haven't even murmured a figure.

 

[HSTEd]

67 Teachers have died of Covid, it is imperative all Key workers get vaccinated

There are (according to google) 506,700 teachers in the UK.

That is a fatality rate of 0.013%

The general fatality rate of the population is now north of 0.1%
They are considerably less at risk than the average!

 

[bramling]

Apparently Chris Whitty is to feature in government information adverts giving safety advice during the current lockdown.

I'm sure that's the last think you want to see on the box before you turn in for the night - Whitty's grim boat race giving everyone the willies.

What was it Nick Ross always said at the end of Crimewatch - ''Don't have nightmares''.

CJ

Yes their messaging just doesn’t seem to be cutting through. The creepy station announcements are back, and to be honest this time round it’s just irritating to hear.

Ironically I think compliance in London has actually been quite strong thusfar, the streets really were deserted today at times. By contrast here, in the Home Counties, it’s one big public holiday, these are the people who seem to love this - they want restrictions, but then don’t really follow them themselves.

 

[py_megapixel]

Did anyone else spot the interview with someone from the NHS this evening on newsnight... he claimed that it was frustrating to see MPs question these "important public health measures" in parliament... So what's the alternative then? Just place all our trust in a cabinet of the greatest lunatics the Tory party has to offer, topped off by an incompetent idiot who can't even brush his hair, let alone run a country, to do the right thing for society?

Ridiculous.

 

[kez19]

Apparently Chris Whitty is to feature in government information adverts giving safety advice during the current lockdown.

I'm sure that's the last think you want to see on the box before you turn in for the night - Whitty's grim boat race giving everyone the willies.

What was it Nick Ross always said at the end of Crimewatch - ''Don't have nightmares''.

CJ

The Full Whitty! .... it was bad enough seeing him on the ads first time round, what will be different? Full blown scaremongering followed by hands face space?

 

[bramling]

Did anyone else spot the interview with someone from the NHS this evening on newsnight... he claimed that it was frustrating to see MPs question these "important public health measures" in parliament... So what's the alternative then? Just place all our trust in a cabinet of the greatest lunatics the Tory party has to offer, topped off by an incompetent idiot who can't even brush his hair, let alone run a country, to do the right thing for society?

Ridiculous.

The NHS management need to get real on this. When you’re locking down an entire population on the basis that the NHS can’t cope otherwise (and this time round it seems pretty clear this is the raison d’etre for lockdown, not like March when no one really seemed to know) then those accountable for that non-coping organisation should damn-well expect to be held to account. And to be honest they should welcome it, as more scrutiny gives them more opportunity to articulate their reasons.

Any good management would take this under their own wing and insulate the on-the-ground staff from the scrutiny.

On the railway if we have to suspend the service for whatever reason then I’d be only too happy to explain why it’s necessary and what we’re doing to recover the situation. If I can reasonably justify what’s happening then there should be nothing to fear and nothing to hide.