Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[High Dyke]

Now that annoys me. Just listening to the BBC news on the radio. It's suggesting what the Government announcement is likely to be, but not reporting what will actually happen; regardless of whether the 'official' announcement has been leaked. Yet another reason to not trust the media.

 

[Dent]

Do you really think that Johnson would be going for a national Lockdown if that was actually the case from the data they are seeing. Even 'Steve Baker' a hard right winger has just been on the BBC having been into downing street this afternoon to look at the data, and his comment was that the government had difficult decisions to make.

You can see the date for yourself at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases.

 

[kristiang85]

Do you really think that Johnson would be going for a national Lockdown if that was actually the case from the data they are seeing. Even 'Steve Baker' a hard right winger has just been on the BBC having been into downing street this afternoon to look at the data, and his comment was that the government had difficult decisions to make.

This is nothing like the spring peak, that did justify measures. This one is just a normal winter rise in respiratory conditions, at the same rates. Yes hospitals will be stretched, but its the same every winter - its due to the chronic mismanagement of the NHS, not the virus.

This is a graph showing the comparison of spring and now. It doesn't warrant this action like spring did.

Also in spring we were told the lockdown was to flatten the peak to save the nhs. This curve is very flat and not on a high peak trajectory at all - so why the lockdown?

 

[35B]

Now that annoys me. Just listening to the BBC news on the radio. It's suggesting what the Government announcement is likely to be, but not reporting what will actually happen; regardless of whether the 'official' announcement has been leaked. Yet another reason to not trust the media.

So what precisely are they meant to say? Their sources are telling them what the announcement should be, but at the moment it hasn't been made. I'm not sure why that means they're not trustworthy.

Now, if you are going to say that they should refrain from waffling about what may happen and contain their excitement until there's something definitive - and perhaps use the time gained to make sure they're fully informed when they need to ask questions - I'd agree.

 

[37424]

This is nothing like the spring peak, that did justify measures. This one is just a normal winter rise in respiratory conditions, at the same rates. Yes hospitals will be stretched, but its the same every winter - its due to the chronic mismanagement of the NHS, not the virus.

This is a graph showing the comparison of spring and now. It doesn't warrant this action like spring did.

Also in spring we were told the lockdown was to flatten the peak to save the nhs. This curve is very flat and not on a high peak trajectory at all - so why the lockdown?

Well they are clearly looking at what the projections will be, and they obviously must be pretty grim, but maybe I should bow to your expertise on this or maybe not.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Saturday probably isn’t going to be a good time to be doing the weekly shop now...

Did weekly shop today in Aldi and already, restrictions are being placed upon certain items - including tins

 

[DB]

Well they are clearly looking at what the projections will be, and they obviously must be pretty grim, but maybe I should bow to your expertise on this or maybe not.

And alarmist projections have proved so reliable so far this year, of course..

 

[Horizon22]

They've wheeled out an interview with Ferguson now... He did at least accept it was a "difficult set of questions" for government. And accepts we'd end up in the same place anyway...

 

[High Dyke]

So what precisely are they meant to say? Their sources are telling them what the announcement should be, but at the moment it hasn't been made. I'm not sure why that means they're not trustworthy.

Now, if you are going to say that they should refrain from waffling about what may happen and contain their excitement until there's something definitive - and perhaps use the time gained to make sure they're fully informed when they need to ask questions - I'd agree.

I would concur with your second paragraph. That is exactly what I mean. Leave the reporting to facts and not speculation.

 

[Dent]

Well they are clearly looking at what the projections will be, and they obviously must be pretty grim, but maybe I should bow to your expertise on this or maybe not.

We should know by now that these "projections" are nothing but wildly exaggerated scare-stories, usually based on the the obviously absurd assumption of exponential increase continuing ad infinitum with no regard for real-world conditions. The government really should know better than to base any decisions on such "projections", but they haven't shown any signs of that so far.

 

[Wuffle]

They've wheeled out an interview with Ferguson now... He did at least accept it was a "difficult set of questions" for government. And accepts we'd end up in the same place anyway...

Why would any sane person listen to Ferguson given his appalling track record of predictions ?

 

[Richard Scott]

Why would any sane person listen to Ferguson given his appalling track record of predictions ?

Well we know the politicians aren't sane, think they've proved that!

 

[Wuffle]

Well we know the politicians aren't sane, think they've proved that!

Can't argue that point

 

[johntea]

Not content with ruining the economy Boris is on course to ruin...Strictly Come Dancing!

 

[northernchris]

So it seems likely that we're to have a month long lockdown only to then potentially go in to Tier 3 restrictions immediately after?

 

[Iskra]

So it seems likely that we're to have a month long lockdown only to then potentially go in to Tier 3 restrictions immediately after?

Tier 3 is pretty meaningless as far as I can tell. The reason we're having another lockdown is probably because tier 3 is a token gesture and it is ignored anyway.

...not that I believe another lockdown is economically sustainable.

 

[brad465]

They've wheeled out an interview with Ferguson now... He did at least accept it was a "difficult set of questions" for government. And accepts we'd end up in the same place anyway...

Well we know the politicians aren't sane, think they've proved that!

On the contrary Prof Sunetra Gupta is being interviewed by the BBC right now, so at least there is some balance.

 

[Horizon22]

On the contrary Prof Sunetra Gupta is being interviewed by the BBC right now, so at least there is some balance.

True, and she's quite clearly stating her disappointment at the whole arrangements. That being said Ferguson and her didn't disagree regarding the lack of an exit strategy and the costs of this lockdown.

 

[_toommm_]

Press conference is starting....

 

[High Dyke]

Not content with ruining the economy Boris is on course to ruin...Strictly Come Dancing!

He can get something right then.

 

[Scotrail12]

Strictly is necessary at this point of the year for people's sanity. A bit of fun escapism.

He can get something right then.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Well we know the politicians aren't sane, think they've proved that!

Can't argue that point

Indeed

 

[High Dyke]

Strictly is necessary at this point of the year for people's sanity. A bit of fun escapism.

Going to the pub is necessary for peoples wellbeing and livelihoods, but it doesn't stop that sector being disadvantaged.

 

[LAX54]

Do you really think that Johnson would be going for a national Lockdown if that was actually the case from the data they are seeing. Even 'Steve Baker' a hard right winger has just been on the BBC having been into downing street this afternoon to look at the data, and his comment was that the government had difficult decisions to make.

Tendring area of Essex, cases have gone down by some 200 over the past 7 days

How much confusion will happen between getting the flu, or heavy cold, as it is that time of year, and C19?

 

[big_rig]

Take a drink for the first ‘nobody wants to be imposing these measures’ lie of the evening

 

[kristiang85]

Well they are clearly looking at what the projections will be, and they obviously must be pretty grim, but maybe I should bow to your expertise on this or maybe not.

I do work with an infectious disease modelling team so I know a thing or two about critically analysing data. I'm not qualified whatsoever but I have picked a few things up. The selectivity of presentation of the data is what drives me mad - the government and media are constantly showing the worst case, rather than the probable case. Also to add to the modelling, one should look at past trends and provide data in context, which isn't happening. Hence my points in that post.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I'm listening to this speech...

I really want to burst through my screen and just scream: GET TO THE POINT!!

He's just spilling a load of waffle right now.

 

[brad465]

It's reassuring that our response is being managed by someone who can't get the PowerPoint slides to fit the screen (not).

 

[bramling]

I just went down to my local morrisons to get dinner, and it's already kicking off. There was a fist fight at one of the checkouts and already a lot of the main staple shelves are emptying. This is chaos. I've decided to abandon that plan and go into town where hopefully the smaller shops are more sane.

What the hell is happening.

This is an utter disgrace; both what it is, and the way this has been handled today.

I intent to actively flout this to the maximum extent possible.

Bets on how long before civil disobedience happens.

He is utterly useless, and has to go ASAP. Completely not cut out for this.

 

[kristiang85]

It's reassuring that our response is being managed by someone who can't get the PowerPoint slides to fit the screen (not).

I thought the same. It hid some rather critical scaling information on some graphs, so I do wonder if it was intentional or not...