Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[adc82140]

Do SAGE know something we don't? The Daily reported infection rate has hovered between 20000 and 24000 for a couple of weeks, yet they are screaming exponential increases in cases. I'm genuinely interested to know where they are drawing their figures from.

 

[brad465]

This article has been produced which leads on Businessman Luke Johnson condemning the concept of another lockdown, and there's also a reference to the London Ambulance service revealing the increase in suicides/attempted suicide from 22 last year to 37 per day now:

'A new lockdown will be far worse for businesses'

Several entrepreneurs tell the BBC what is at stake, for their industry and wider society.

www.bbc.co.uk

Multiple business leaders have hit out at the looming prospect of a second national lockdown in England, saying the potential damage "is immense".

Businessman Luke Johnson says the country cannot afford another lockdown.

"We [the UK] are over £2 trillion in debt now...and I think the government has neglected to account for the total loss of the lockdown," he says.

The government maintains it has struck a balance between protecting jobs, the economy and saving lives.

Mr Johnson adds: "The damage to confidence, entrepreneurs, investors, the destruction of jobs, unemployment and the social and welfare costs are immense."

This week, the London Ambulance Service revealed that it is now attending an average of 37 suicides a day, up from 22 a day in 2019.

"I think that is a direct consequence of lockdown. People are losing their jobs, they are lonely, depressed, the mental health toll on the country is exponential," says Mr Johnson, who formerly ran Pizza Express, Patisserie Valerie and the Giraffe chain.

"I think it will be much worse this winter because people can't go out into the sunshine and treat it as an extended sabbatical.

"It's going to be much grimmer."

He says his main problem with the government's strategy is that there is no clear "exit plan" for the pandemic and coronavirus restrictions.

"Before we were told it was a few weeks, and there's a suspicion it could be a few months. If Christmas is cancelled, that's it for many businesses," warns Mr Johnson.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think you're right. A ministerial statement would be required for a lockdown (not to mention the fact that national measures are supposed to be debated in the Commons too).

Well there not compelled to have a debate and because the stupid Tories voted for the Coronavirus Act 2020 in the first place without ensure there were checks in place they've gifted Hancock and Johnson virtual dictator powers.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Obviously no Black Friday this year then?

No harm. Another nonsense American import.

Agreed!

 

[typefish]

Well there not compelled to have a debate and because the stupid Tories voted for the Coronavirus Act 2020 in the first place without ensure there were checks in place they've gifted Hancock and Johnson virtual dictator powers.

This is supposed to happen after the secondary legislation has been enacted (if done so "urgently"), but hasn't happened in the majority of cases.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I've honestly never been so angry and upset at a decision made by a government in my life. SAD is bad enough as it is at this time of year, but at least we always have a social season to look forward to. This is going to be terrible.

Agreed. This is going to get bad quickly. Suicides will increase a lot I fear.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Do SAGE know something we don't? The Daily reported infection rate has hovered between 20000 and 24000 for a couple of weeks, yet they are screaming exponential increases in cases. I'm genuinely interested to know where they are drawing their figures from.

Another thing to bare in mind is that the level of testing has gone up over 100k in the last few weeks so the fact figures aren't running away is another positive. However, its hospitalisations that are key issue here and they are rising fast still, particularly in the North, but as there is 2-3 week lag it wont evident for a few weeks whether they are flat lining yet. Scotlands attempt at regionalisation of restrictions looks like its bearing fruit albeit the restrictions are tougher than Tier 3. So what is needed more rapid moving areas up the tiers as some areas with high rates like Bristol at 410/100k over days are still Tier 1 where other s areas on less are in Tier 3!!

 

[SuspectUsual]

I think you're right. A ministerial statement would be required for a lockdown (not to mention the fact that national measures are supposed to be debated in the Commons too). I predict a Tier 4 announcement, with most of the North of England placed in it. Then watch in the next week as that spreads, leading to a national lockdown in all but name, possibly excluding Cornwall and the Isle of Wight. Let's see in a few hours how way off I am.

That’s pretty much what I think will happen. We can’t have five tiers, because of Sturgeon, he won’t want a national lockdown (yet), and he’ll be under pressure from the ERG, most of whose MPs represent seats far away from the expendable north

 

[brad465]

The BBC article has this graph of the different "scaremongering models"; what's interesting is the Imperial one isn't even the most pessimistic this time, that accolade goes to PHE/Cambridge with the ridiculous 4k a day prediction:

PM to hold news conference as lockdown considered

The government is considering a new month-long lockdown in England to curb rising Covid cases.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Snow1964]

There is also a problem of existing rules not being followed, (police having to break up big parties, plus the usual idiots that don’t care)

It is economically stupid to close down country further, whilst haven’t got exist rules working.

How many extra deaths are there, there is about 750 a day being attributed to Covid (many with other medical factors), but in normal times about 1750 people die every day anyway. Not even clear if we are above average death rate for late October

 

[island]

Beeb probably told them 4Pm wouldn't be good time as they have a Live six Nations rugby match on!!

The match will be finished shortly after 4 but there'll be another on by 5.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2020 ==

Well there not compelled to have a debate and because the stupid Tories voted for the Coronavirus Act 2020 in the first place without ensure there were checks in place they've gifted Hancock and Johnson virtual dictator powers.

The Coronavirus Act 2020 is not relevant; all of the "lockdowns" and "restrictions" to date have been made using regulations under the Public Health Control of Disease Act 1984.

 

[HSTEd]

The BBC article has this graph of the different "scaremongering models"; what's interesting is the Imperial one isn't even the most pessimistic this time, that accolade goes to PHE/Cambridge with the ridiculous 4k a day prediction:

PM to hold news conference as lockdown considered

The government is considering a new month-long lockdown in England to curb rising Covid cases.

www.bbc.co.uk

Deaths per day isn't even the interesting part of this graph.

The areas under the curve are the important part.

EDIT:

Also I look at this graph and see "it could be all over by february"

 

[Yew]

How many extra deaths are there, there is about 750 a day being attributed to Covid

Are there?

 

[Halish Railway]

Aight, here’s my suggestion to Boris & co from me, a young person:

Do a nation-wide lockdown similar to what we had in spring ending at the end of November, however, make under-25s exempt (although still facing tier 1 restrictions) and give them stimulus cheques of £1,000. This will significantly reduce the chance of vulnerable people catching the virus, would keep the economy going to a certain extent and most importantly give a boost to young people’s moral after all of the damage caused by the virus and this farcical government.

Also don’t copy the Welsh Government and force shops to close off isles.

I’ve seen a lot of talk about suicides in the previous posts and as someone who knows someone (not a close friend) that has unfortunately recently taken their own life I can say that it’s probably the worst thing that has happened throughout my time in education, leaving everyone rattled and thoroughly upset for weeks afterwards. On the bright side I can happily say that being back in school is great - You never appreciate something until it’s taken away from you.

 

[philosopher]

What do people think will actually be announced today or in the coming few days? At a minimum I think Boris will announce a higher tier 4 level of restrictions for certain areas that closes hospitality except for takeaways and perhaps non essential retail. The other extreme could be a full lockdown similar to the Spring except with schools remaining open.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Aight, here’s my suggestion to Boris & co from me, a young person:

Do a nation-wide lockdown similar to what we had in spring ending at the end of November, however, make under-25s exempt (although still facing tier 1 restrictions) and give them stimulus cheques of £1,000. This will significantly reduce the chance of vulnerable people catching the virus, would keep the economy going to a certain extent and most importantly give a boost to young people’s moral after all of the damage caused by the virus and this farcical government.

Also don’t copy the Welsh Government and force shops to close off isles.

I’ve seen a lot of talk about suicides in the previous posts and as someone who knows someone (not a close friend) that has unfortunately recently taken their own life I can say that it’s probably the worst thing that has happened throughout my time in education, leaving everyone rattled and thoroughly upset for weeks afterwards. On the bright side I can happily say that being back in school is great - You never appreciate something until it’s taken away from you.

So as a 21 year old, I do love your idea. If the government gave me a grand, I'd be ridiculously happy (as would several bus companies and train operators, and many pubs across the country).

However, it wouldn't be practicable to have restrictions for over 25s but nothing for those under 25. Who will work in all the shops, or on public transport? What about the emergency services? I'm not convinced older people should be sacrificed just so all us young uns can go on a month long jolly.

As I'd say, I know such a move would be great for my mental health, which is only just now recovering from the first lockdown, and I would love the chance to spend £30 a day enjoying myself. But it's for the birds, sadly.

 

[Tomp94]

What do people think will actually be announced today or in the coming few days? At a minimum I think Boris will announce a higher tier 4 level of restrictions for certain areas that closes hospitality except for takeaways and perhaps non essential retail. The other extreme could be a full lockdown similar to the Spring except with schools remaining open.

surely a full lockdown won’t be announced as it’s a press conference not an address to the nation. We could see indoor mixing banned and a tier four added. If indoor mixing is brought in across the country I’ll be looking for a new job as I work in a community centre, just as we were starting to find our feet again

 

[Halish Railway]

However, it wouldn't be practicable to have restrictions for over 25s but nothing for those under 25. Who will work in all the shops, or on public transport? What about the emergency services? I'm not convinced older people should be sacrificed just so all us young uns can go on a month long jolly.

Fair point - leaving the house for work can be a valid reason to defy a stay at home order. Also in reflection, I’d keep Garden centres and DIY shops open for over-25s to give them something to do whilst at home, aswell as clothes shops, but for kids only.

 

[brad465]

Aight, here’s my suggestion to Boris & co from me, a young person:

Do a nation-wide lockdown similar to what we had in spring ending at the end of November, however, make under-25s exempt (although still facing tier 1 restrictions) and give them stimulus cheques of £1,000. This will significantly reduce the chance of vulnerable people catching the virus, would keep the economy going to a certain extent and most importantly give a boost to young people’s moral after all of the damage caused by the virus and this farcical government.

Also don’t copy the Welsh Government and force shops to close off isles.

I’ve seen a lot of talk about suicides in the previous posts and as someone who knows someone (not a close friend) that has unfortunately recently taken their own life I can say that it’s probably the worst thing that has happened throughout my time in education, leaving everyone rattled and thoroughly upset for weeks afterwards. On the bright side I can happily say that being back in school is great - You never appreciate something until it’s taken away from you.

As someone who turns 25 next month that would be a very interesting experience for me (however as that's the 24th November I'd only have to lose a week in that hypothesis).

 

[Ianigsy]

I wouldn't hold your breath.
Well from I've read the lockdown was leaked to the press hence emergency cabinet meeting.

Which wouldn’t surprise me as certain fairly senior ministers have been saying all week that a second England-wide lockdown wasn’t being contemplated. Nobody likes being made to look either stupid or a liar.

Interesting to hear from the owner of my local independent bookshop that the Booksellers’ Association have been lobbying for bookshops to be allowed to stay open on the grounds that books are zero rated for VAT and therefore considered already considered essential under the law.

 

[big_rig]

surely a full lockdown won’t be announced as it’s a press conference not an address to the nation. We could see indoor mixing banned and a tier four added. If indoor mixing is brought in across the country I’ll be looking for a new job as I work in a community centre, just as we were starting to find our feet again

I have to admit to a pessimistic stance on all this but I’m not sure I agree the press conference format makes a fundamental difference - it could easily be him and Dr Lockdown ‘making the case’ for a lockdown which will be introduced to parliament tomorrow for the vote? I can’t remember the specifics of whether he is ‘allowed’ to announce things outside of parliament but I also don’t think it matters hugely sadly!

 

[johntea]

It doesn't matter if they announce Tier 4, rule of 4, connect 4...as they'll just change the playing field again within a couple of weeks anyway if they do so!

 

[big_rig]

An update from a journalist..

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1322562692771696640?s=21

These are the measures to be announced by the PM at 5, as I understand it. They will last 2 December. And they are, In effect, a new “Tier 4” that will be imposed for a month initially to the whole of England. 1) All pubs and restaurants to close, though takeaways...

and deliveries will be permitted. 2) All non-essential retail to close, though supermarkets won't have to follow the Welsh example of fencing off non-essential goods. 3) There will be no mixing of people inside homes, except for childcare and other forms of support...

3) Manufacturing and construction will be encouraged to keep going. 4) Outbound international travel will be banned, except for work. 5) Travel within the UK will be discouraged, except for work. 6) Overnight stays away from home will be allowed only for work purposes...


7) Courts, schools, and universities will remain open. 8) Outdoor exercise and recreation will be encouraged. 9) Private prayer will continue in places of worship, but not services.
It all starts at one second past midnight on Thursday. The...

regulations will be published in Tuesday, and MPs will vote on them on Wednesday. One source told me to consider the regulations as a Tier 4 for the whole of England. After 2 December, the exit strategy is that different parts of the country will then have...

their local economies and behaviour governed by the existing Tiers, namely Tiers 1 to 3, depending on how serious the virus is in these respective places.

 

[johntea]

Robert Peston has the details on his Twitter

Basically a Tier 4 which is basically 'we don't want to call this a national lockdown but it is', applied to all of England until 2nd December and then can presumably stay applied to specific areas afterwards...

https://www.twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

 

[DB]

Let's hope there us a significant rebellion from backbench MPs.

Many of these measures are unlikely to achieve much anyway - e.g. there is no evidence of shops being a significant source of infections.

 

[High Dyke]

I've long given up believing anything from politicians and media about all this. All I want to know is whether I'm making all the staff at Grantham Railway Club redundant! I'm not expecting much hope of financial support from either Government or the banks - I'm still awaiting to hear whether we can have a bounce back loan to aid the last full lockdown. Up until this point we have reopened for trading, but with the restrictions already in place there is an obvious downturn in customers.

 

[Alex C.]

As usual, the communication of this is absolutely shambolic and now details are being drip fed by favoured journalists. No doubt the legislation and technical detail won't be out until shortly before it comes into effect but there seems to be a lot of mention of travel restrictions (e.g banning non work-related outbound international travel), it's possible they could be making them stricter than during the first lockdown.

Meanwhile, Wales and Scotland have said they won't be following England's lead and will continue with existing measures.

 

[birchesgreen]

All work and no play, we serfs need to know our place

 

[NorthOxonian]

Let's hope there us a significant rebellion from backbench MPs.

Many of these measures are unlikely to achieve much anyway - e.g. there is no evidence of shops being a significant source of infections.

Even if the backbenchers rebelled, Alexander de Pfeffel could rely on enough Labour votes to get any measures through.

 

[DB]

Even if the backbenchers rebelled, Alexander de Pfeffel could rely on enough Labour votes to get any measures through.

Unfortunately that's probably true!